The fortnight before Christmas

Another pre-Christmas election theory, a court ruling brings some clarity to Labor’s preselection process in Victoria, and the latest on New South Wales’ looming bonanza of state by-elections.

Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:

• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.

• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.

• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.

• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “The fortnight before Christmas”

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  1. BiTJ

    Why did Fran associate Joyce with ‘relentless’ when he is probably the most climate destructive deputy prime minister in the history of Federation?

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga , 2021 at 4:29 pm

    How do the others know what were the original demands?

    It’s SfM, so they will have been told nothing about the original demands.

  3. How did we all like the way in which Insiders insisted that Labor must have a point of difference on climate policy?
    Are they all set up to ensure that the coming Federal election will AGAIN be decided on climate?
    How is that going for the climate so far?
    Gamesters.

  4. Boerwar @ #2249 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:48 pm

    Maybe because she was choosing her own words.’
    ————————-
    That is the accepted premise.
    Fran knows Morrison is incompetent. Why anodyze that to ‘pragmatic’?

    English is a wonderful language, full of a wide range of adjectives to describe things as they appear to you.

    You seem to have a problem with this and regularly try to force your own words on others because you seemingly don’t like the way they have chosen to express something.

  5. Mavis @ #2219 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 3:57 pm

    [“Fitz: To finish, I want to throw a few names at you, so you can give me your instant response.

    Fran Kelly: “OK . . .”

    Fitz: Malcolm Turnbull.

    Fran Kelly: Big thinker.

    Fitz: Kevin Rudd.

    Fran Kelly: The apology.

    Fitz: Penny Wong.

    Fran Kelly: Grace under pressure.

    Fitz: Barnaby.

    Fran Kelly: Relentless.

    Fitz: Scott Morrison.

    Fran Kelly: Pragmatic.

    Fitz: Fran Kelly.

    Fran Kelly: Tired.”] – SMH

    I guess that given she’s still employed by Aunty, she couldn’t say what she really thinks about some of the abovenamed. There’s probably a book on the way.

    Malcolm Turnbull; Big Thinker.
    Yep, Malcolm thought long and hard and real big then decided to completely fuck the NBN.
    What a fuckwit.
    Fitz; Malcolm Turnbull
    Fran; fuckwit
    There that’s better.

  6. Boerwar @ #2250 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm

    BiTJ

    Why did Fran associate Joyce with ‘relentless’ when he is probably the most climate destructive deputy prime minister in the history of Federation?
    ——————————————
    Classic Fran, actually. A player.

  7. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2147 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 4:54 pm

    Boerwar @ #2249 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:48 pm

    Maybe because she was choosing her own words.’
    ————————-
    That is the accepted premise.
    Fran knows Morrison is incompetent. Why anodyze that to ‘pragmatic’?

    English is a wonderful language, full of a wide range of adjectives to describe things as they appear to you.

    You seem to have a problem with this and regularly try to force your own words on others because you seemingly don’t like the way they have chosen to express something.

    Tory Fran actually wanted to say ‘my hero’

  8. Boerwar @ #2257 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:56 pm

    Boerwar @ #2250 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm

    BiTJ

    Why did Fran associate Joyce with ‘relentless’ when he is probably the most climate destructive deputy prime minister in the history of Federation?
    ——————————————
    Classic Fran, actually. A player.

    Why do you address me and yet only quote your own words?

  9. Much of the MSM, including many of those in the ABC have been pawned.
    The staggering ineptitude of the Morrison Government in sphere after sphere is on full display.
    Fran comes up with Morrison being ‘pragmatic’.
    When is not holding a hose being pragmatic?
    When is wasting a decade on climate action ‘pragmatic’?
    When is speeding up the Anthropocene Extinction Event ‘pragmatic’?
    When is fucking up the MDB ‘pragmatic’?
    When is the biggest debt in Australia’s history ‘pragmatic’?
    Had we followed Morrison we would have copied the UK model and we would 30-40,000 dead Australians to show for it. How is THAT ‘pragmatic’?

    Fran came up with anodyne MSM bullshit.

  10. Boerwar:

    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 4:02 pm

    [‘Mavis
    Not a single ‘corrupt’ in that column. Pathetic.’]

    I promise to do better commencing Monday.

    Edit: I presumed you were referencing my Porter post, not Fitz’s interview with Fran.’
    ———————–
    [‘The Fran responses. Why didn’t she say ‘incompetent’ in relation to Morrison?’]

    I could think of a stronger adjective to describe Morrison but Kelly had to maintain her professionalism.

  11. Boerwar @ #2250 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm

    BiTJ

    Why did Fran associate Joyce with ‘relentless’ ..

    She’s seen him at the members bar ?

  12. ‘Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:10 pm

    Boerwar:

    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 4:02 pm

    [‘Mavis
    Not a single ‘corrupt’ in that column. Pathetic.’]

    I promise to do better commencing Monday.

    Edit: I presumed you were referencing my Porter post, not Fitz’s interview with Fran.’
    ———————–
    [‘The Fran responses. Why didn’t she say ‘incompetent’ in relation to Morrison?’]

    I could think of a stronger adjective to describe Morrison but Kelly had to maintain her professionalism.’
    ——————
    This goes to my point, actually. What is ‘professional’ about calling incompetence ‘pragmatic’?

  13. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    Boerwar @ #2250 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm

    BiTJ

    Why did Fran associate Joyce with ‘relentless’ ..

    She’s seen him at the members bar ?’
    ————————
    LOL

  14. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:09 pm

    Must be time to head out.

    The boring Boer has arrived.
    ———————-
    personal attack

  15. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:18 pm

    Boerwar @ #2271 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 2:17 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:09 pm

    Must be time to head out.

    The boring Boer has arrived.
    ———————-
    personal attack

    No, an observation.’
    ====================
    If you are bored do stop wanking on and use your bloody head and your scroll wheel.

  16. Mavis, what are your thoughts on that Miles fellow up North? Premiership material ?

    He seems to have been chained up from the attack-dog role? Presumably on the basis of advice/polling or to preserve him for greater things?

  17. What is ‘professional’ about calling incompetence ‘pragmatic’?

    Can’t see the connection, myself. But his media fans also make up stuff as if they know Morrison’s real thoughts, excusing his inaction as “He understands.” Pig’s arse he does

  18. Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    5m
    Barnaby Joyce to give a presser at 5.45pm, after the Nationals partyroom meeting on net zero. Could the week of drama finally be over? Who knows! Let’s see

  19. If you were so inclined, you could take most of Fran’s adjectives as euphemisms.

    Who knows if she intended them that way :P.

  20. Couple of things:

    -if you are the target of abuse, just let it go, don’t retaliate!

    This tends to work better when there’s some swift and clear official action taken against aggressors. When they routinely and visibly go unpunished, it invites retaliation.

    -we live in a democracy. People are allowed to have conservative views or radical views which don’t align with your own views.

    Yes, but there’s a certain tendency, more from one side of the political spectrum than the other, to conflate counterfactual, demonstrably incorrect nonsense with “views” and “opinion”.

    Like thinking abortions should or shouldn’t be legal, or that people should or shouldn’t be allowed to carry guns around. Those are matters of opinion and everyone is entitled to take any position they like for whatever reason.

    But denying climate science, or claiming that covid vaccines don’t work/are part of some conspiracy to spy on you/will make you infertile or whatever; those aren’t views and opinions. They don’t warrant protected status, or respect. People can be allowed to have their lunacy, but it doesn’t need to be tolerated in any privately operated context.

    The point is, I guess, that there’s a line between lunacy and opinion, and extending tolerance across that line causes more harm than good.

  21. Sarah Martin
    @msmarto
    ·
    2m
    Breaking: Nats partyroom has agreed to support net zero by 2050

    But what are they demanding. That’s more important.

  22. There is one exception here, and that is when it comes to Lars. His treatment of C@t is absolutely bullying, with a rather creepy misogynistic and obsessive undercurrent. I do remember when he was more or less accusing her of being an alcoholic sleeping her way through the (if I’m remembering correctly, it began in a thread discussing the Bennelong by-election), and it was pretty appalling stuff that he still subtly baits her with to this day.

    I find the best way to deal with the baiters is to just ignore them. For some reason C@t was unable to.

    I’ve said this before too, but I honestly believe that if there was a maximum daily number of comments someone could post, that would eliminate the unpleasant behaviour.

  23. I’ve said this before too, but I honestly believe that if there was a maximum daily number of comments someone could post, that would eliminate the unpleasant behaviour.

    That may yet happen. The first part, I mean. The second part — we’ll see.

  24. citizen @ #2209 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 3:43 pm

    A few weeks ago somebody posted photos of the Great Wall of Collaroy being built to protect waterfront properties from big waves.

    It’s a huge project, a combined total 1.3km of 7m high wall and rock structure to absorb wave energy.

    There is no way that a concrete wall ‘absorbs’ wave energy. It simply reflects it, and the waves which bounce back remove the sand from the beach. In a very short while there will be no beach to speak of in front of the wall, for the same reason that there is no beach in front of the Longreef rock platform, and all of other the rock platforms in the whole Sydney basin. The surf patterns all along the beach will be drastically altered.

    As I remarked when this was first reported, they tried a similar thing at Noosa, with the result that the main beach disappeared entirely, leaving just the dumped large quarry boulders. Delightful.

  25. Newspoll tonight? This one and the next one should be pretty decisive.

    If Morrison can’t get a bounce before Christmas you would have to say he is in serious trouble particularly with that purported WA swing.

  26. Where there are Family Court of Australia proceedings courtesy of a marriage break down, that Court takes an interest in Trusts, including Blind Trusts

    They usually start from the Settlor to ascertain the beneficial owner

    For property division purposes

  27. So they have a Cabinet Submission for more pork – remaining private for now.

    And it looks like the Nats have an extra Cabinet Minister

  28. DisplayName says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 5:39 pm

    If you were so inclined, you could take most of Fran’s adjectives as euphemisms.

    Who knows if she intended them that way :P.
    ___________________
    Seems to me that in Politics pragmatic usually is a euphemism for lacking any core principles and being totally committed to ambition and power.

  29. If they’re all on the bus now, that should at least mean Canavan and his fellow Qld colleagues will have to toe the party line.

    Or will they leave the Nats and join Clive.

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