Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:
• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.
• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.
• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:06 pm
Lurker you already know this. I really honestly believe sometimes you build up your arguments up to paint Labor having the worst outcome. Then actually care about having a serious debate.
________________
Well I’m mercurial like that.
But seriously, The Greens taking and holding Melbourne is not really anything like a situation with independents. Inner Melbourne is ideologically strongly Green. That’s a fact. More so than in 2010.
“Genuine lurker” – twat. Fuck off.
If your point is that Lurker is Nath, he’s never made any secret of the fact. If it’s that he’s adopted a new handle after being suspended and/or banned, you’ve just done exactly the same thing yourself.
Who is this guy? Is it that deranged dude from a few months ago.
The real test for the Greens in Melbourne will come after Adam Bandt retires and climate change policy has been settled.
An interesting discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiEmfXECD9k&ab_channel=MarianneWilliamson
Mexicanbeemer
Expecting that to happen sometime soon? 😛
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:08 pm
“I do recall reading somewhere that before he was assassinated Ceasar was about to depart on a massive conquest of the East. Possibly to India and China, recreating and expanding on Alexander’s conquest.”
I’m currently reading an alternative history starting on the ides of March 44 BCE: Caesar goes home at the last moment and the conspiracy is uncovered. Im up to book 4 in a 6 part series: the great (now old) man is sailing up the Ganges with 12 of those legions, along with Parthians and Indian war elephants he’s acquired along the way.
_______
Dam, so it was true then. What’s the name of it? Good or real good?
On Rome alternate history matters. Years ago there was a short story put online about a U.S battalion who somehow went back in time to the Roman period and attempted a coup of the Empire. Supposedly a studio bought the rights but I’ve heard nothing about it.
DisplayName
The environment and markets will make it happen no matter what the dopey Australian politicians do.
Oh yeah, it was called Rome Sweet Rome. So corny…
William is our biased old twat. 😛
Just kidding. But seriously, if there’s one person who doesn’t deserve shade here, it’s him. I don’t just mean because he’s in charge, or to kiss his arse. He puts a lot of work into this site. Not just in this forum either but with Bludgertrack and political coverage in general. And he’s been pretty fair to all of us, even when we’ve stunk up the place with childish fighting, or whatever shit I dribble about half the time.
rhwombat:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 10:54 pm
Please stop the gobbledygook. One can easily speak in ones particular discipline, but does it inform? I think that’s the issue. I mean: ‘IgG, but IgA & T-cells are heavily…’ is surely a matter for one’s peers.
Weirdest and most disturbing alternative history book I have read. Can’t recall the name, but in the 1990s, South African Apartheid scientists, open a time hole to just before the U.S Civil War, arm the South with AK-47s in order to have the South win, maintain slavery and therefore protect the Apartheid system. I didn’t finish it. What a crackpot!
“What’s the name of it? Good or real good?”
The Caesar Ascending Series by RW Peake. He actually wrote the last book in the series first – “Caesar Triumphant” which was about his final conquest – the homes Islands of Japan in 34-33 BCE. The series originated out of a ‘what if’ fan conversation on the author’s blog and the idea grew until he decided to pit legions against proto samurai (which obviously could not have been accurate as that evolution didn’t really take place for nearly another millennium).
The series I’d rate as good.
If you want a really good – in fact I think it is the best series I’ve read on the lot of the ordinary squaddies making up the legions after the Marian reforms, then the series “Marching with Caesar” by the same author is brilliant: it starts with the 10th Legion being raised in Hispania in 61 BCE by Caesar when he was Praetor of that province and ends a dozen or so books later with the main protagonist, Titus Pullus (who writes the story in the first person as his memoirs) of the series retiring as Prefect of the Pannonia Legions in about 18 BCE. The alternative history series features the same characters, but obviously there is a departure in the plot of each series after Munda. Both series, and follow up series featuring the son, grand son and great grandson of Titus can be found on Kindle.
Mavis
As they say, you have the right to be wrong 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:35 pm
If you want a really good – in fact I think it is the best series I’ve read on the lot of the ordinary squaddies making up the legions after the Marian reforms, then the series “Marching with Caesar” by the same author is brilliant:
____________________
Cheers, I’ll check them out, might ask for them for Christmas.
As a return recommendation if you are into Medievalism:
The Magnificent Century, by Thomas Costain. About the reign of Henry III.
It’s part of a series on Plantagent Kings, but this is the finest. Best historical fiction I have ever read.
rhwombat
“Neutralising Abs are usually IgG, but IgA & T-cells are heavily”
That sounds like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlIz0q8aWpA
Ah yes. My brother recommends that series as well naff. On my reading list.
However, I’m actually doing a deep dive into geopolitical strategy at the moment. I really think we are at the edge of a real precipice and I want to expand my knowledge base as much as possible.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:46 pm
However, I’m actually doing a deep dive into geopolitical strategy at the moment.
______________
Sounds dreadful! 🙂
Mavis2 Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:30 pm
The jargon is fine for the person that asked rhwombat the question.
That said, I do feel that the answer was left hanging somewhat 🙂
As in literally full of dread.
Cud Chewer:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:38 pm
[‘Mavis
As they say, you have the right to be wrong ‘]
I claim the right to be right given my advanced age, many thinking it’s an impediment. If I’m right, I think you’re around 50 (correct me if I’m wrong). What comes with age is that one has seen it all before.
Griff
NZ still in the lead 60.40% vs Australia 59.49% fully vaccinated.
I’m curious to see if the next 10% has an effect on NZ’s outbreak.
Griff:
Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 11:48 pm
[‘The jargon is fine for the person that asked rhwombat the question.
That said, I do feel that the answer was left hanging somewhat ‘]
When reading law in the mid-’80s we were encouraged not to use use the language of the law – Latin. Looking back, if for instance one referred to the doctrine of uberrima fides, a client woud be overcome with emulsions. So, I’d interpret this as good faith; in other words, if you lie about your insurance, you could be in deep nitrogenous waste.
Rudd showed respect for Howard after the 2007 election in various ways, including giving Howard all the time he wanted to change his residence
Rudd attempted to be above politics
In my personal view, coming off the “night of the long knives” after Howard came to government, Rudd would have been better served reviewing Secretary and other senior appointments within the PS
But he did not because he is not and never has been a political animal
In fact, given the short selling in 2007, he deferred to the Treasury Secretary and the RBA Governor (and also others, some of more acumen than others, all from outside the public purse – so well experienced – then retired – former senior bankers because there was a crisis in Global Capital Markets so you co-opt bankers, or retired bankers for their expertise)
That was in the lead up to Xmas 2007
And the rest is history courtesy of any analysis of the rest of the world versus Australia in terms of the fall out from the GFC
It could be reasonably put that the effects of the GFC remain
Also courtesy of the Abbott “horror budget”, when the Australian economy was in recovery mode
The GFC did not just disappear overnight
The damage done was just too significant – and the damage endured
The GFC may also have contributed to the ultimate reliance Rudd put on young and contemporary brains – because they were “on the pace” so as to speak
To the chagrin of some
Rudd and those he put his confidence in performed brilliantly
Hence the outcome
Whilst house prices and banks were collapsing globally and Equity markets were also collapsing, Australia and Australians survived as they did
They are the facts
Spinning a scroll wheel…
It’s a shame about Oakeshott Country leaving. His comments / anecdotes about the Port Macquarie region were one of the reasons I started regularly reading PB and throwing in the odd comment (also Larvatus Prodeo and Possum’s Pollytics – where are they now?), around the Lyne by-election way back in 2008. As a west Aussie who’s never been to northern NSW, I actually got a feel for what the place is like from those comment threads. The signal-to-noise ratio used to be better.
His assessment of Catmomma was also accurate.
I’ve only just caught up Oakeshott Country’s comment from earlier. I greatly regret that he has made the decision not to post here any more, as he is a person of considerable knowledge, experience and insight. I do not blame him one skerrick for his decision, and would have done exactly the same thing in his position.
C@tmomma should be bitterly ashamed of herself. Her comment to Oakeshott Country on the night of KayJay’s death was utterly beneath contempt, and her “apology” for it even worse, suffused as it was with what OC correctly identifies as her “usual ‘more sinned against than sinned’ schtick”.
If C@tmomma wishes to continue posting here, she must apologise to OC for saying what she said on the night of KayJay’s death — properly this time. The apology must at least give a convincing appearance of genuine contrition and sincerity, and be unblemished by the self-pity to which she invariably succumbs on these occasions. With that done, she must resolve never to insult or belittle OC again if he chooses to resume posting here, as I dearly hope he does.
I also note that Cud Chewer showed sufficiently abysmal judgement to have responded to OC’s comment with this, thereby emboldening C@tmomma to double down.
To be quite clear in my mind about this, I made the effort to review OC’s last 1100 comments, going back to the start of the year. I cannot find the faintest skerrick of evidence that he ever once “bullied” Cud Chewer or anyone else. As far back as April, the closest he came to denigrating another commenter was to say someone didn’t understand the Westminster system; to correctly point out that Zerlo had said something foolish on the night of the Tasmanian election; and to accuse C@tmomma of bullying him, as indeed she had. And this is out of a sample of 600 comments. Such snark as he engaged in over the previous three months was similarly trivial, and usually (possibly always) provoked. Overwhelmingly, his comments were substantive, reasonable and informative.
It is perfectly clear that his only crime through any of this was to be critical of the New South Wales ALP.
Yes – I believe rhwombat’s comment was truncated after “heavily” (heavily researched?)
Anyway, I suspect the anti-vaxxers will find a way to avoid the treatments: “something something experimentation”. While chowing down on their highly processed fast food or GM soy tofu burgers.
Owners offload dogs bought in lockdown by pretending they are strays
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/oct/23/owners-offload-dogs-bought-in-lockdown-by-pretending-they-are-strays
Anti-Covid vaxxers seem to fall into 3 categories:
– opposition to mandatory vax policies, but not opposed to vaccination per se
– outright opposition to vaccination of all types
– sanguine about vaccination per se, but onboard the anti-Covid vax bus because it gives them an outlet for their anti-Establishment anger
I don’t know if these categories apply to all anti-vaxxers because there hasn’t been that much attention given to them, other than to paint them as nutters and cranks.
But one thing’s clear with Covid vaccination: as the percentages of the vaxxed in Australia rise, those opposed are becoming more of a minority and are losing their voice. Perhaps this is because of the widespread adoption of rules requiring vaccination before being able to use a product (travel, going to restaurants and cultural institutions etc).
Bird of Paradox,
+1
Too many good contributors have left.
I miss reading Puffy’s posts, along with many of the other original PBers.
They are genuinely missed.
As ‘metal pirates’ loot seabed treasures, there are fears Australia’s first submarine could be next
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/24/as-metal-pirates-loot-seabed-treasures-there-are-fears-australias-first-submarine-could-be-next
Shipwrecks from “Crossroads Baker” need not apply:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crossroads#Test_Baker
Thanks for being so thorough and fair William. Without getting into the particularities of the situation or the people involved in the instances you’ve mentioned, if contributors have a better appreciation of what type of behavior is unacceptable, it will make PB a better place.
Doesn’t matter who you are, or whether you’re nominally friend or foe, sooner or later Scomo will shaft you.
——————
“Leaked text messages reveal Nationals MP were fuming after details of their list of demands for agreeing to a net zero emissions target were canvassed publicly, before they had seen it, with one accusing the Prime Minister’s office of leaking it.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-mps-group-chat-explodes-over-climate-pmo-leak-claims-20211022-p592e8.html
One of the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia, announced Saturday it aims to reach “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, joining more than 100 countries in a global effort to try and curb man-made climate change.
Although the kingdom will aim to reduce emissions within its own borders, there is no indication Saudi Arabia will slow down investments in oil and gas or relinquish sway over energy markets by moving away from the production of fossil fuels. Energy exports form the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s economy, despite efforts to diversify revenue as the world increasingly looks to transition away from reliance on fossil fuels. The country is forecast to make US$150 billion in revenue this year from oil alone.
The announcement, made by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in scripted remarks at the start of the kingdom’s first-ever Saudi Green Initiative Forum, was timed to make a splash before the start of the global COP26 climate conference being held in Glasgow, Scotland. The prince vowed Saudi Arabia will plant 450 million trees and rehabilitate huge swaths of land by 2030, reducing more than 270 million tons of carbon emissions a year and attempting to turn the landlocked city of Riyadh into a more sustainable capital.
Australians could learn a thing of two from their Japanese peers in terms of compliance. Esp those living around where I am at the moment, in inner Sydney.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/how-japan-hit-the-sweet-spot-to-crush-the-latest-wave-of-covid-20211020-p591nb.html
Confessions,
I’m sure you’re right.
My comment was only partly tongue in cheek; “food technology” doesn’t have nearly as much scrutiny as medical technology.
Why do some people delay getting vaccinated or pretend COVID doesn’t exist? Paradoxically, denial of death
https://theconversation.com/why-do-some-people-delay-getting-vaccinated-or-pretend-covid-doesnt-exist-paradoxically-denial-of-death-168485
max:
That’s a classic SfM move! And it’s a wonder the man has any friends at all after what we’ve read revealed, not just about his time in the Liberal party, but the other jobs he’s had.
Jaeger:
Yes, I’d forgotten simple complacency.
And agree about food technology. Some people are quite willing to consume Mcdonalds in large quantities without thought, but are sceptical about vaccines. Doesn’t make sense to me.
“Who is the greater fool: the fool, or the fool who argues with him?” (Apols Obi-Wan.)
Nixing argumentum ad hominem would be a start; a certain feature of a certain add-on definitely helps.
My Hunt for the Original McDonald’s French-Fry Recipe
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/original-mcdonalds-french-fry-recipe
The Untold Truth Of McDonald’s Fries
https://www.mashed.com/131249/the-untold-truth-of-mcdonalds-fries/
Dimethylpolysiloxane – yummy.
Not this again! But it’s just the sort of pre-election ‘clean up’ that suggests the prospect of an election this year is still a possibility.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/christian-lobby-boasts-religious-freedom-laws-will-include-folau-clause-20211022-p592ea.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And now I’m off set the sprinkler going over at the oval for the first time this spring/summer.
James Massola tells us that leaked text messages reveal Nationals MP were fuming after details of their list of demands for agreeing to a net zero emissions target were canvassed publicly, before they had seen it, with one accusing the Prime Minister’s office of leaking it. Could be popcorn time coming up.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-mps-group-chat-explodes-over-climate-pmo-leak-claims-20211022-p592e8.html
Cristina Talacko says that the Nationals must account for the cost of climate inaction, too.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7481549/the-nationals-must-account-for-the-cost-of-climate-inaction-too/?cs=14264
Nick O’Malley looks at COP26 and wonders how Australia’s soft shoe shuffle might be received.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/cop26-how-will-the-oz-soft-shoe-climate-shuffle-be-received-20211021-p5922s.html
Jacqui Maley begins this well-aimed spit with, “Don’t call it a blind trust. Call it a trick, an attempted sleight of hand, a work-around by someone who knows the rules well enough to skirt them adeptly.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-blind-trust-certainly-the-government-is-keeping-voters-blind-as-to-porter-s-secret-donors-20211022-p592du.html\
In a very thoughtful contribution, Jon Faine tells us what he will miss from Melbourne’s lockdown.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/what-i-will-miss-from-melbourne-s-lockdown-20211022-p592ca.html
“We know where Perrottet stands – but is he pragmatic enough to be popular?”, asks Paul Daley.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/23/we-know-where-perrottet-stands-but-is-he-pragmatic-enough-to-be-popular
Victorian hospitality workers could be set for better wages, but customers may have to pay more for food and drink as businesses fight over a small pool of experienced bar and restaurant staff during Melbourne’s re-opening.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/scramble-for-hospitality-workers-may-mean-better-wages-and-higher-prices-20211022-p592df.html
The Government is contemplating a substantial increase in immigration, boosting the Pacific Australian Labour Mobility Scheme and introducing the new Agriculture Visa, so it’s worth reflecting on where things are at with Australia’s biggest ever labour trafficking scam, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/update-of-australias-biggest-ever-labour-trafficking-scam,15663
People who come before the courts for cocaine possession are far more likely to escape conviction than ice or heroin offenders, a phenomenon some lawyers and police attribute partly to an unfair disparity in how the drugs – and their users – are perceived, writes Fergus Hunter.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/meth-junkies-aren-t-turning-up-with-a-qc-why-cocaine-users-often-escape-conviction-20211016-p590in.html
As Australia surpasses a first dose rate of more than 86%, doctors and pharmacists say discussions they are having with patients still yet to receive their first vaccine dose are becoming more challenging.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/a-woman-offered-a-bribe-to-fake-her-vaccination-then-the-unexpected-happened-20211022-p592dt.html
The federal government will announce the companies it wants to kickstart mRNA vaccine manufacturing in Australia in coming weeks, with a final decision imminent. James Massola reports that the decision will open the door to the development and manufacturing of the high-tech mRNA vaccines in Australia, including COVID-19 jabs, and position Australia as a leader in the ground-breaking technology.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mrna-vaccine-decision-imminent-as-new-covid-ads-launch-20211022-p592e7.html
Australian Christian Lobby boss Martyn Iles has boasted the Morrison government will include a controversial “Israel Folau clause” in its looming religious discrimination laws, in audio that has since been scrubbed from the internet.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/christian-lobby-boasts-religious-freedom-laws-will-include-folau-clause-20211022-p592ea.html
The ABC’s vibe may be more left than right, but ‘cancelling’ it is not the answer, argues Jacob Gersh.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-abc-s-vibe-may-be-more-left-than-right-but-cancelling-it-is-not-the-answer-20211021-p5921v.html
Cartoon Corner
Glen Le Lievre
Matt Golding
Matt Davidson
Reg Lynch
Warren Brown
Mark Knight
From the US
Jaeger:
Absolutely! Fast food takeaway is more chemicals, preservatives and additives than actual real food.
If people are so concerned about what they put in their bodies that they are shunning vaccines, they really ought to take a look at their diets. After all, you don’t get vaccinated every day, but you do eat every day.
Nationals MP were fuming after details of their list of demands for agreeing to a net zero emissions target were canvassed publicly, before they had seen it, with one accusing the Prime Minister’s office of leaking it.
Surely not!?! The PMO leaking against anyone and everyone!?! I don’t believe it. 😉
Confessions says:
Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 7:40 am
Not this again! But it’s just the sort of pre-election ‘clean up’ that suggests the prospect of an election this year is still a possibility.
The much-delayed Religious Discrimination Act, which Scott Morrison promised to deliver before the last election, is expected to be introduced to Parliament in the final sitting weeks of the year.
———————————
I was just reading that Confessions. I’m wondering if the government will be able to get it through the Senate.
Also it’s a bit debatable whether or not they’d want this to be a live issue during the election campaign. There’s been some analysis suggesting that the ALP’s support among moderate religious voters has been impacted by a perceived hostility to churches. On the other hand association with right wing religious crazies hasn’t done the LNP any favours in the broader community- at least in Victoria.
I’d suspect the average voter doesn’t think that the state of “religious freedoms” in Australia is a problem and gets turned off by people carrying on about it.
C@t, please read my comment at 3:31am and think very carefully about your response.
‘… details of their list of demands for agreeing to a net zero emissions target were canvassed publicly, before they had seen it…’
They hadn’t SEEN the list of demands?
“What do we want!”
“We don’t know!”
“When do we want it?”
“Now!”
max:
Perhaps. But I was thinking more along the lines of tidying up outstanding commitments such as this bill, before proceeding to the election. It seems like the kind of thing governments coming to the end of their term do.