The fortnight before Christmas

Another pre-Christmas election theory, a court ruling brings some clarity to Labor’s preselection process in Victoria, and the latest on New South Wales’ looming bonanza of state by-elections.

Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:

• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.

• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.

• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.

• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “The fortnight before Christmas”

Comments Page 28 of 49
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  2. My thoughts on Reid, an electorate with more than a passing interest. Yes, Burwood and Strathfield are ‘old money’, and the earlier generation of migrants have been nicely ensconced. Demographic wise, the growth of apartments around the train line with the newer generation of migrants is eating in.

    Two things that would have pissed off the mostly well-to-do Reid dwellers is the monstrosity that is the WestConnex, and it’s wide gouge in the landscape – and the targeting of most of the Electorate as “LGAs of concern” under the Gladys Ghetto segregation of Western Sydney from the North Shore, East and Shire. Anectodatal, but some residents were mightily pissed off by being lumped in with parts further west.

    Will the well informed Reid residents glumly accepted the pandemic fiasco? Or the Nats leading Morrison by the nose on Climate Change? Time will tell.

  4. A precis of Ayers’ evidence thus far:

    [‘Mr Maguire lobbied him about the grant in 2014 and again in 2016. In March 2016, Mr Ayres advised Mr Maguire that he did not have a source of funding for the upgrade. Mr Maguire wrote to him again about a having a meeting about the project, and Mr Ayres subsequently visited the site in Wagga Wagga.

    By mid-2016, Mr Ayres had agreed that the government would give the association $40,000 to prepare a business case to support its application for millions of dollars in government funding. He said this was not unusual, and did not agree with evidence given by a NSW Office of Sport bureaucrat in a private hearing at the ICAC that it was not standard practice for non-government entities to be given funding for business cases.

    Mr Ayres said the resultant business case was “strong” and estimated a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 2.31, which was “a strong result in any BCR”. However, he regarded that figure as “optimistic”. Two men who worked in the NSW Office of Sport at the time have given evidence that the business case was scant. Mr Ayres did not recall being told of these criticisms.

    Mr Ayres’ office asked the Office of Sport to prepare an urgent funding submission for the project to be considered by cabinet’s expenditure review committee in late 2016. Mr Ayres said the application was urgent because the association had secured a world championship clay target shooting event in 2018. However, he said the event would proceed regardless of any upgrade of facilities.

    Mr Ayres did not recall discussing the project with Ms Berejiklian, who was then chair of the expenditure review committee (ERC). In December 2018 that committee signed off on a $5.5 million grant for the association, contingent on the production of a satisfactory business case. Mr Ayres said the initial business case was “satisfactory enough to approve the funding” and “this looks like a pretty stock standard activity by the ERC”.’]

    I note he’s being examined this afternoon & getting a bit irritated. His memory is also unusually suspect for a man of forty.

  5. This is interesting from NSW ICAC

    Ayres and Berejiklian were writing to Maguire in approving the project for Maguire , where Gladys as treasurer, used a treasurer letterhead to by pass deputy premier blocking the project

  10. Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland
    @BOM_Qld
    ·
    1h
    The Bureau can confirm a tornado from a supercell thunderstorm touched down near @BrisbaneAirport about 10am today. Radar evidence was supportive of a tornado and video evidence showed it lasting less than a minute or two. Latest #QLDweather http://ow.ly/QL4p50GvPkn

  11. Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland
    @BOM_Qld
    ·
    1h
    The Bureau can confirm a tornado from a supercell thunderstorm touched down near @BrisbaneAirport about 10am today …

    Luckily there’s no such thing as “Global Warming”, so it can’t be that.

  12. mikehilliard says:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 2:31 pm

    Did Gorton knife his own leader to become PM?
    ____________________
    Knifing leaders has been proven to be quite effective in government renewal.

    You’d have to say that the knifing of Abbott was successful, just.

    Similarly the knifing of Turnbull probably turned it around for the Liberals, especially in QLD.

    Keating knifing Hawke turned out ok.

    Only the Rudd knifing proved a failure. The revenge knifing of Gillard, however was considered positively due to the seats Rudd saved from being lost.

  13. @Jaeger,

    I don’t hold a Hurricane shelter door mate.

    Anyone else looking forward to a climate catastrophe occurring in the run up to an election?

  14. Ayres’ claims the business case for the grant to the shooting club
    was solidly based. I wonder how one morphs from a witness into a person of interest(?).

  16. ”
    JenAuthorsays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 12:00 pm
    Reid, ………………….
    …………………..
    ………
    and the state #LNP member is currently under a cloud that stinks to high heaven. Strathfield, Jody McKay’s district, is Labor as well.

    All these things make for a strong Labor showing
    ”

    1. How many people in state seat of Drummoyne know that sitting member Sidoti “stinks to high heaven” and is investigated by ICAC. What is Labor doing to make people know about that if they don’t that?
    2. When Jodi McKay was forced to resigned as Labor leader and when she resigned from State parliament she made absolutely clear that she had to resign due to skullduggery of certain people in Labor and Media made it absolutely clear to the public about that.
    So I am bit surprised with your upbeat assessmentof ALP chances.

  18. Jaeger,

    I could see that storm from my place, we were on the edge of it to the south. It looked intense, even by Brisbane standards. But most noticeably, it didn’t really move, just sat in one spot, which was very unusual.

    Now you tell me there was a tornado, about 2kms from from my parents house!

  19. Gorton took over from McKewen didn’t he? McKewen was Acting PM after Holt drowned.

    So, no stabbing, but definitely a drowning there.

    Bit it WAS McMahon who knifed Gorton.

  21. Bennelong Lurker:

    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 2:51 pm

    [‘@Mavis

    Perhaps ask Gladys?’]

    It’s of interest to note that following her examination last October, Berejiklian claimed she wasn’t a person of interest thus having no reason to step down, until that fateful day of October 1, when the ICAC announced an investigation into whether she breached public trust or encouraged the corrupt behaviour of Maguire. So I guess she would be a good judge.

    ______________________________________

    Griff:

    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 2:52 pm

    [‘When one deals with a slippery customer, all too easily’]

    Yep. And they don’t come slippery than “Dodgy Daryl” Maguire.

  22. I could see that storm from my place, we were on the edge of it to the south. It looked intense, even by Brisbane standards. But most noticeably, it didn’t really move, just sat in one spot, which was very unusual.

    Now you tell me there was a tornado, about 2kms from from my parents house!

    It’s pretty crazy when severe storms like that at forming in the morning instead of in the afternoon.

    Ben Domensino @Ben_Domensino

    In addition to producing a possible #tornado in #Brisbane this morning, this supercell delivered a whopping 101mm of rain in one hour at Luggage Point (near the airport). This is 1 in 100 year rain rate.

  23. mikehilliardsays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 2:31 pm
    Did Gorton knife his own leader to become PM?

    Did Keating knife Hawke
    Did Gillard knife Rudd
    Did Rudd knife Gillard
    Did Turnbull knife Abbott

    Probably missing a few but my point is what is your point.

  24. Actually their is a good argument that Dutton forced Morrison to run. Now their is a sliding doors moment Dutton V Shorten.

  25. “Scomo passes John Gorton today at 3yrs 59days as PM.”

    As the Kevin Bloody Wilson goes:
    “D.I.L.L.I.G.A.F.
    D.I.L.L.I.G.A.F….”

  26. ”
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 12:29 pm
    Just responding to briefly’s cut and paste history of the seat of Reid.
    ……………………….
    …………………..

    3. Labor needs to get a swing back from the large and influential migrant community in Five Dock that hail from the Aeolian Islands off the north coast of Sicily. Folk like former Labor members (state and federal) Michael Maher, John Murray, John Murphy and Angela DeMore did good jobs in holding that community, buts since then they have swung liberal to a certain degree.

    4. The Korean Community of North Strathfield have to come on board.

    Now, whether a daughter of Chinese refugees from Laos can achieve 3 and 4 remains to be seen. There is a view amongst certain politicos that certain migrant communities were resistant to embracing migrants from other communities as political candidates and that therefore the best candidate in a diverse migrant electorate is in fact an Anglo.
    ……………….
    ”

    This post reminds me of the story of 2 Cats and a Monkey

    https://alltimeshortstories.com/moral-stories-two-cats-and-monkey/

  28. Cud Chewersays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 1:09 pm
    I see that OC posted a whinge about “constant niggles” etc here earlier today.

    For the record I was disgusted at OC’s attempts at bullying directed at myself in the early half of last year. He also removed himself from credibility by displaying arrogance and incivility on a matter where he has no expertise and I do.

    Another tax on my scroll wheel with little to say that was substantive or insightful. May he serve a useful purpose wherever he is..

    You of all people talking about bullying, poor diddums, OC will be missed you on the other hand…where do I start. I know please give us an update on Covid in NSW and Victoria you have been so accurate in the past, you know a comparative analysis and maybe some more of your predictions.

  29. casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    The Tasmanian Government commissioned modelling from Professor Raina MacIntyre at the Kirby Institute to guide its reopening plan

    ….

    Matt Squair
    @mattsquair
    ·
    10m
    So opening up Dec 13, 3023 then?

  30. Biden has just thrown out ‘strategic ambiguity’. This policy had the benefit of allowing China’s dictators to assert without losing face to their home audience that there was progress towards liberating Taiwan. Biden’s stance, coupled with Tsai Ing-wen’s stance, indicate precisely the opposite.

    The Taiwan War clock just jumped a huge jump towards midnight.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-22/biden-says-united-states-would-come-to-taiwans-defence/100560522

  31. ”
    Ashasays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 12:39 pm
    Stuart Ayres’ seat of Penrith is held on a very narrow margin. Could be quite bad for the state government if he’s forced to resign.
    ”

    The state seat of Penrith lies within the boundaries of federal seat of Lindsay and both seats are bellwether seats at State and Federal level.
    Recently when NSW had Delta lockdown, the parts of LGA of Penrith with Proles were subjected to harsher lockdown and parts of Penrith LGA either with harnessed Proles or non-Proles were subjected to less harsher lockdown.

  32. ”
    Bushfire Billsays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 12:28 pm
    Yes, and he is assuring Counsel that he has genuinely lost his recall, and that political considerations played no part in his recommending the project.

    Well, THAT’S a relief!
    ”

    Does he recall that he is the husband of Australian Foreign Minister? 🙂

  35. ”
    Jaegersays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 3:10 pm

    Ben Domensino @Ben_Domensino

    In addition to producing a possible #tornado in #Brisbane this morning, this supercell delivered a whopping 101mm of rain in one hour at Luggage Point (near the airport). This is 1 in 100 year rain rate.
    ”

    So another 1 in 100 year rain rate. Another sign we will not be able to keep warming to 1.5 ℃ in next 20 years let alone by the end of the century.

  36. State border restrictions have been an important tool used by state and territory governments to protect their citizens from COVID-19 but unfortunately, the ABC has reported on these restrictions in a politically biased manner.
    …If you’re in a Labor state and you’re thinking that the ABC has covered your state’s border closures in a more critical fashion and more frequently than the border restrictions in Liberal states, your thoughts would be correct. Excluding articles covering the breaking of border restrictions, border legal challenges and speculation over the Ashes, ABC News has published 73 articles on border restrictions so far this month and the majority have been written about Labor states.
    …Of course, the above analysis only covers the period of 1–20 October, but this is a continuation of the same biased coverage from the ABC that we have seen throughout the pandemic. If you go to the ABC News website right now and search the phrase “slams border shut” or “hard border” there won’t be any prizes for guessing which states’ border restrictions are regularly reported with such editorialised language.

    But ABC News articles are just one aspect of what the ABC offers in terms of news. The coverage of border restrictions on 7.30 has been far more one-sided. Again, excluding coverage of the breaking of border restrictions and border legal challenges, 7.30 has run 21 stories on state border restrictions throughout this pandemic.
    …
    It should also be noted that throughout the pandemic, 7.30 has been in direct opposition to the hard and fast lockdown approach taken by Labor states and regularly praised NSW for their “last resort” approach to lockdowns.

    Perhaps the ABC isn’t anti-lockdown or anti-border restrictions but is simply anti-Labor.

    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-showing-liberal-bias-in-lockdown-coverage,15661#.YXJBjKx8l4E.twitter

  38. ”
    Jaegersays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 3:25 pm
    This post reminds me of the story of 2 Cats and a Monkey

    Don’t leave us hanging, Ven.
    ”

    I posted the link of the story in my above post @3:23pm. 🙂

  44. My point is, shouldn’t we consider the length of ones PMship from that date when you were elected by the voters, not from when you knifed someone to get it.

    Especially with Morrison’s knifing of Fizzer which was particularly deceitful. Someone else here will have to post the picture of the smug prick with his arm over Turnbull’s shoulder, I’ve got no idea how to.

  45. ”
    lizziesays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 4:06 pm
    It’s no good. My PB duty is to watch Barnaby on Afternoon Briefing, but 2 minutes was all I could stand.
    ”

    Poor lizzie. Can’t stand Joyce for 2 minutes. How do you expect us at PB to pay your commission for your vigil? 🙂

  48. My point is, shouldn’t we consider the length of ones PMship from that date when you were elected by the voters, not from when you knifed someone to get it.

    Especially with Morrison’s knifing of Fizzer which was particularly deceitful. Someone else here will have to post the picture of the smug prick with his arm over Turnbull’s shoulder, I’ve got no idea how to.

    Does it really matter? Who cares if Morrison has inched past Gorton? Anyway, it’s quality not quantity that counts.

    Whitlam was only in power for three years, whereas Howard was in power for eleven. I think it goes without saying who most here think was the better PM.

  49. Reporter: “When were you first aware that this was happening, and that the announcement would be-?”

    Grace: *in near tears* When you, when you just, when you just told me, just now”

    @RedJules4
    · 2h
    Holy crapoli. @TamePunk was just told live on air about the National Strategy for the prevention of child sexual abuse and hasn’t been invited! This is outrageous!

  50. mikehilliard @ #1395 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 4:11 pm

    My point is, shouldn’t we consider the length of ones PMship from that date when you were elected by the voters, not from when you knifed someone to get it.

    Especially with Morrison’s knifing of Fizzer which was particularly deceitful. Someone else here will have to post the picture of the smug prick with his arm over Turnbull’s shoulder, I’ve got no idea how to.

    Must I? Oh, okay:

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