Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan finds Labor back up after a weaker result last fortnight, while Essential Research comes through on nuclear submarines and its usual questions on COVID-19 management.

Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.

The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.

Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.

The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. “How about we agree that when every LGA in Australia reaches 80%, then, and only then, we open up a bit.”

    Ok…someone correct me if im wrong but i thought the “National Plan” or at least teh modeling its supposedly based on was predicated on EVERY jurisdiction in Australia being at or above 70% full vaccination of “Eligible” people. ( a definition that seems to have expanded since the announcement).

    Also that we have that rate over vulnerable groups like indigenous / disabled?

  4. Mr Shorten told The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age that if politicians were mandating vaccines for other people working in other sectors, “I don’t see how we [MPs] can be separate”.

    “How do we ask nurses, disability carers, aged care workers to do this but not ourselves? We come into contact with people every day,” he said.

    “I don’t think the vaccines are experimental, I don’t think COVID is a hoax and there have been mandates from governments on people’s health before. The vaccines are safe and effective; this is about the common good.”
    …
    Mr Shorten’s comments go further than his party’s stated position and are likely to trigger public debate about whether vaccine mandates are necessary – as Australia approaches 80 per cent of the overall population having had a single jab; and as NSW, Victoria and the ACT begin to ease restrictions and brace for a surge in cases.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-see-how-we-can-be-separate-shorten-backs-mandatory-jabs-for-mps-20211001-p58wka.html

  5. That is the big question will the federal independent corrupt commission / integrity commission do it job properly.

    For the sake of open and honest transparency i hope it does

  7. Barnaby Joyce especially should be made to pay back the taxpayers dollars he was receiving while not being eligible to sit in parliament(being ineligible to be deputy/acting prime minister ) for 10+ years

  9. yabba @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:26 am

    Two problems:

    1. Read about the Hummus Wars. Jews like it too, and

    2. What about Pastafarianism?

  10. Ed Husic is what Western Sydney Labor is all about! Considered and with the finger on the pulse. It was Mark Latham, when he was still the “ideas man” of Australian public life said “Western Sydney is a very practical place that can spot fakeness a mile away”

  11. Boerwar

    Australia bought 2 submarines in 1928. I know this because my paternal grandfather was in the commissioning crew of HMAS Oxley (1) from 30/10/1928. The trip back to Australia with HMAS Otway was at the time the longest unaccompanied submarine voyage in history at that point. As kids we used to ask him why he moved to Broken Hill. His answer was because it was about as far away from the ocean as he could get. They were given back to the poms in 1932.

    As an aside last weekend I was doing fire training with an ex submariner who served in Oberons and Collins classes. His opinion was that Australia had to go nuclear eventually for what it’s worth.

  12. Constance is not a Gilmore local.

    Waiting for the inevitable media pile on about the party parachuting an outsider into the seat. … any time now … any time …

  13. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:34 am
    Constance is not a Gilmore local.

    Waiting for the inevitable media pile on about the party parachuting an outsider into the seat. … any time now … any time …
    ————-

    And from Taylormade, Lurker,Lars Von Trier, Steelydan,BucePhalus

  14. B.S. Fairman @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:13 am

    It is going to be interesting moving forward to see how the NSW cross bench work with the Government. That is when the NSW Parliament actually sits. Do we have a date yet?

    And I think Constance will surprise you – I am pencilling in a Liberal gain. After all, we may have the local resident PlayerOne spruiking for him 🙂

  15. Dawn Patrollers
    ”
    Australia’s submarine strategy has always been lacking, write Jack Waterford who says “All of our choices over the past 50 years have been bad ones, and going to America (or Britain) and going nuclear will be a bad one too.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7452510/were-making-the-same-mistakes-again-with-nuclear-submarines-choice/?cs=14329
    ”

    BK
    This Nuclear Sub deal is the one of fraud perpetrated on the people of Australia like the “Back in Black” fraud before last election. No white paper or no other coloured paper. It is good because PM says so. No agreement no nothing. Just agreed to have a plan for a plan. Just another announcement. If people on ALP side can fall for it, image how easy it is to dupe ordinary punters who are not passionate about politics or who are disinterested at best of times.
    When asked how we will manage the gap in capability of Submarines, while the Nuclear Subs are built, The answer from Dutton was “Rent a Sub”.
    When I asked who is doing that kind of deal. I was pointed to Indo-Russian deal worked over a period of 2 years.
    Now let us see how many countries currently have the capability of building Nuclear powered submarines. Only 6 countries have it. US, UK, France, Russia, China and India.
    So India already has capability to build Nuclear powered Submarines. But went for a rent deal with Russia because of geographical necessity ( India neibhours with 2 hostile neibhours in China and Pak). Please note India has a long standing military relationship with Russia.
    The question to ask is whether US, UK, France and China ‘Rent a Sub’.
    Ruling out China and France as countries which will rent a sub to Australia even if they do, Sub Renters are now narrowed to US and UK. Will US and UK rent a sub to Australia? We don’t know. Even of they do there is good possibility they will not do that atleast till the end of this decade.
    Like”Back in Black” so many assumptions have to be proven right before it will happen. Now we know that we will not be “Back in Black” atleast in our lifetimes if at all. Hence it is a fraud enacted upon us.

  17. So much to take in:
    *Constance provided lots of entertainment when he mused about contesting the EM by election
    *The cognitive dissonance being exhibited regarding the ‘sainted Gladbags’ reminds me of the funeral for my mother where the eulogising was so far at odds with the woman (she was a piece of work in her own endearing way) that parts of the family still can’t get their heads around the event.
    * Labor won’t win the federal election, the LNP will lose it and going after Tanya for not showing enough mongrel will not help their cause. I want to vote for a party that espouses the qualities I respect and covet, not a party who accepts my secret vote and carries out all manner of bastardry while I sit back and pretend I didn’t vote for them.
    *The past decades have seen all manner of ill-qualified candidates enter the teaching profession, believe me, I had to work with them. More than enough room for a few anti-vaxxers given the falling entry standards our governments have overseen.
    * We should approach the Chinese about making Darwin a base for a fleet of ‘virtual subs’ seeing as they call the shots there thanks to the LNP.

  18. ”
    Steelydansays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:05 am
    zoomstersays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:54 am
    lizzie

    Alas, there’s many a teacher out there who scrapped in with a bare pass with their HSC/VCE.

    I know of five who are refusing to be vaccinated (two for religious reasons).

    Weird to watch someone I like and respect suddenly throw the switch to nutcase and start raving about ‘putting poison into your veins’ and Nazi Germany.

    But why only in Victoria.
    ”

    When Victoria can produce Credlin, Andrew Bolt, Sukkar, Bastian, it can produce people Zoomster mentioned I guess.

  20. RP at 10.31am

    My understanding is the two ‘O’ class submarines were handed back to Britain because the Great Depression had such a bad effect on Australia’s finances the subs were determined to be unsustainable.

    Maybe a good outcome, they were ‘saddle tank’ boats. Fuel was stored in tanks riveted to the subs’ sides. The seals were not good enough to prevent fuel leaks when the boats submerged, allowing aircraft and surface ships to locate and sink the subs more easily. The Brits had a high loss rate among ‘saddle tank’ boats in the Mediterranean in WW2.

  22. A federal ICAC with teeth?
    Albo seems to feel he can’t avoid talking up an ICAC publicly now because of public sentiment, but he seems to also still not even be able to say he is aware of corruption in federal politics. This was just 2018-19.

    Senior Labor figures including Anthony Albanese argued against anti-corruption watchdog
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senior-labor-figures-including-anthony-albanese-argued-against-anti-corruption-watchdog-20190801-p52d15.html

    Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.

    In revelations that could blunt Labor’s criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s proposal to tackle corruption in Canberra, former leader Bill Shorten faced fierce internal opposition during debates over the policy, including from his tight-knit leadership group members Penny Wong and Tony Burke.

    Several Labor shadow cabinet members have told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that Mr Shorten faced “strong resistance” in his attempts to convince colleagues of the merits of taking a powerful new corruption fighting body to the May election.

    Some in shadow cabinet, including members of the NSW Right faction, drew on the “disastrous” experience of the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption and its “political show trials”.

    Others had warned as early as 2016 that a new body would discourage “frank and fearless advice” from senior public servants and “make it very hard to govern” if Labor had won the May 18 poll.

    Shadow attorney general Mark Dreyfus led the charge to develop the corruption watchdog with the full support of Mr Shorten and then deputy Tanya Plibersek.

    But several Labor sources said the trio encountered initial opposition during “very willing internal debate from others including Mr Albanese, Senator Wong, Mr Burke and former senate leader Stephen Conroy.

    “They didn’t want it at all initially,” one member of Mr Shorten’s shadow cabinet said.

    “They pushed back and back, and while there was some sympathy about some of the arguments they clearly did not understand the public mood around this stuff.”

    Another said: “Bill was adamant it was needed. Others were not. They made it known very strongly but the leader won out, as he should have.”

  23. “Albo seems to feel he can’t avoid talking up an ICAC publicly now because of public sentiment…”

    Quoll the mind-reader.

  24. zoomster says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:43 am

    From Kos Samaras —

    Not really a surprise!

    Absolutely correct summary from Samaras. Outraged by the endless-loop provocation from Murdoch, I quit News Corp nearly 50 years. It’s approaching 30 years since I stopped listening to the radio, save for music alone. I have never watched a commercially-broadcast chat-about-news-and-politics show. I have progressively given up watching sessions like ACA, 60 Minutes, Insiders, 7.30, Q&A and even 4 Corners. I watch the ABC TV news once or twice a year. I have a blanket ban on social media news feeds/ commentary/ sharing. I absolutely loathe Twitter. I increasingly rarely go to The Guardian for fresh online news.

    I really do not need to lend my attention to any of it – to be baited by any of it. I’d prefer to walk the non-existent dog, tend the garden, hang out the washing, go to the gym, do some ironing (!), read a book or go to the beach….just about anything rather than consume the junk products that are passed off as news and information. This is peace in my own house.

  26. Dan with 1220 cases, NSW with 667 cases today. And the so-called intelligent of here say Dan’s is a hero and NSW are a bunch of idiots.

  27. We will get the vaccination rates by reference to local government areas tomorrow butthe Herald is reporting that there is slackening off in the east and lower north.

    It would be a little ironic if there was some rule requiring every local council area to be X percent and Blacktown has to wait to Mosman or Bronte to get their heads out of their arses.

  28. Aqualung at 10.53am

    Great link!

    I have only one bone to pick: yes, AUKUS makes Australia a likely nuclear target, but we probably were anyway.

    We’re home to Pine Gap. If I’m in charge of an anti-US nuclear armed country, I’m targeting that installation and probably Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne as well. Maybe even Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide: 6 or 7 targets obliterating this country’s capacity to support US. Not difficult, if you have the warheads attached to reasonably long-ranged missiles.

    Pleasant thoughts!

  30. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:01 am
    Hmm. Andrew Constance V Fiona Phillips in Gilmore.

    Are the NSW Liberals that bereft of talent that they have to pickpocket from the NSW government?
    ”

    Worried?. Now P1 can vote 1 for Libs with clear conscience. No more clap trap of voting 1 for independents.
    Mind you, to be fair to P1, P1 always came up with reasons why P1 will not to vote 1 for ALP.

  33. With the assistance of an Australian diving team, it was determined in October 1997 that the wreck was that of an old steamer.[4] After a further thorough side-scan sonar and magnetometric survey of the reported scuttling site of the AE2, Kolay located the submarine in June 1998, lying in 72 metres (236 ft) of water.[4] The wreck was first dived in July, while subsequent dives by an Australian team in October were able to confirm the wreck as being AE2.[4]

    From a Wikipedia search. I remember seeing something on TV about preservation efforts.

  34. Dandy Murraysays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:58 am
    “Albo seems to feel he can’t avoid talking up an ICAC publicly now because of public sentiment…”

    Quoll the mind-reader.

    I guess PB is a comedy commentary fora now eh

    If all the idiotic projections and suppositions the clique post day after day about others, and each other, were removed, then it would be the quietist comments section on the internet

  35. Snappy Tom says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:06 am
    Aqualung at 10.53am

    Great link!

    I have only one bone to pick: yes, AUKUS makes Australia a likely nuclear target, but we probably were anyway.

    We’re home to Pine Gap. If I’m in charge of an anti-US nuclear armed country, I’m targeting that installation and probably Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne as well. Maybe even Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide: 6 or 7 targets obliterating this country’s capacity to support US. Not difficult, if you have the warheads attached to reasonably long-ranged missiles.

    Pleasant thoughts!

    The Garden Island naval facilities near Perth would be on the list, as would NW Cape and Pine Gap. We are part of the global strategic nuclear ‘system’. We should recognise what the possible imposts are. We should also recognise the contribution this has made and continues to make to the maintenance of peace between the great powers.

    The maintenance of peace should be one of the foremost articles of defence policy for any country, including this one. We derive very great advantages from peace. (This has not always been the case among the English-speaking peoples, who made great gains too from policies of war, from around the time of QE1 until WW1).

    We have to be prepared to defend our territories, our laws and the safety of our people, and we have to combine this with furthering peace for ourselves and others more widely. This includes strategic peace and has to entail a capacity to respond to belligerents, and to assist our friends. Defence is not a sole competitor sport. It is a mutual, shared process.

    We could and should do much better, both for own sakes and for the stable working of the global order.

  40. It’s not surprising that Q is running Albo-phobic lines. If there is a Labor figure who understands the Greens, who knows how to handle them and who will never ever parlay with them, it is Albo. Albo will be at the top of the list of Green enemies. They will destroy him if they can.

  41. Andrew Constance emotes well with his everyman, woe is me mien, but as transport minister he has presided over some monumental fuck ups (ie ferries that are too tall to pass under certain bridges).

  48. How many of the ministers in the NSW government are vaccinated

    Perrottet should not be premier if he is not vaccinated , or any other person who is elected the leader

  49. Gladys can’t come to work anymore, she’s a little crook. boom-tish!

    We need something to counter the apparent moves to have her canonised.

  50. As the Morrison/Frydenberg/ Joyce government demand that the states honour their agreements to open their borders, both the French government and Glasgow organizers must be choking on their respective baguettes and black pudding.

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