Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
The characterising of things around a ‘race’ is coming from Labor a lot. 🙂
Gladys and supporters are basically suggesting that Gladys was aware of and facilitated a dodgy bloke to crack open the states public finances but it’s terribly inconvenient to bring this up now.
There are plenty of people locked away at the moment finding being locked away to be a tad inconvenient.
Husic is a winner!
Oh dear, a politician trying to give a nuanced answer to a David Speers’ gotcha attempt. We can’t have that!
“A rare thing indeed….a Labor spokesperson passing on the peace pipe and letting it rip.”
Husic is reading the tea leaves. He represents a section of Sydney that was screwed over royally during the lockdown, and calculates there is much resentment to capitalise on.
Speers trying to stop Husic from criticising Libs. Hah!
BK
True. I wish Speers would stop interrupting him for his pet gotchas.
the reason why Victoria appears to have so many varieties of crazy is no doubt due to the length of the lockdowns here. People have become unhinged, or more unhinged, more so than in other states.
If Adelaide, Perth, or Brisbane had as many days of lockdown as Melb there would probably be reports of widescale cannibalism.
max @ #1907 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 7:22 am
Ed Husic doing a pretty good job application on telly just now.
On Porter’s prospects:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/03/well-on-the-nose-is-christian-porter-beyond-redemption-in-his-wa-seat-of-pearce
“You’ve seen”… haven’t you David … not.
Husic giving Speers the dickhead treatment
Ed Husic showing more industry policy nous than the current no-name dropkick incumbent.
Don’t tell me Husic is talking about bringing back the car industry?
Angus Taylor is the new minister for industry.
Get ready for factories built from coal.
From Kos Samaras —
Not really a surprise!
Who all was in the conga line of industry ministers under the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments?
Who has just been the minister for industry before Taylor?
What a great contribution!!!!
Did the CCC in WA act excessively as Probyn claimed?
They do top quality hate in this neck of the woods:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/tensions-rise-at-kosovo-serbia-border-as-number-plate-row-escalates
Speers should be putting his questions about “subs” to the ratbag responsible for putting together the hodgepodge new “sub”policy.
Speers represents (and Probyn for that matter) the opinated (born to opinuate) private school educated gits throughout the Australian media landscape.
I thought Speersie would have had Pynesie up for a few searching questions and dozens of interruptions on just how he fucked up the single biggest defence contract in our history.
Or maybe Ms Mirabella. She was on some sub board or other. Would have the inside goss on the engineering and project mismanagement issues…
I’ll be surprised if Porter actually ends up standing for re-election.
If I recall correctly Porter was the WA state treasurer who started with a bundle of money in the till and left the state to head for the big smoke with an escalating state debt.
People sometimes question why Labor pollies go on to RW programs. Ed Husic shows how useful it is to have practice in answering antagonistic questions.
After 8 years in government this Government DOES NOT HAVE A PLAN FOR CO2.
How fucking incompetent is that?
Yeah, but, technology not taxes BW!
As you said, useless.
The adulation continues, with 18,000 petitioners having demanded Berejiklian’s reinstatement (the link disappeared). One thing’s certain, her probable successor Perrottet, who’s Howard’s choice, doesn’t appear to cut it.
Boerwar at 9:50 am
He and the Libs inherited a State debt (debt not deficit) of a modest $3 Billion. He and his Libs added $3 billion to the debt each and every year. Done during a boom so scores extra marks.
lizzie @ #2715 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 5:13 am
And yet ICAC is investigating her lack of decency and honesty.
p
Ah, thank you for the facts which lead to the inevitable conclusion that he was an incompetent treasurer.
Maley reminds us that Taylor has questions to answer with respect to fraudulent documents that traveled from his Office.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
Hmm. Andrew Constance V Fiona Phillips in Gilmore.
Are the NSW Liberals that bereft of talent that they have to pickpocket from the NSW government?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1878 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 9:58 am
Labor needs to nip this proto-myth in the bud before it takes hold as many have before.
Constance goes Federal.
Simply, Victoria has a Labor government and the Murdoch media
In 2020, the Health Department settings saw off the virus – a virus which caused the catastrophe it did in PRIVATE Aged Care facilities where the Royal Commission finding tabled in the Federal Parliament found as it did – there were no protections against any infection let alone a Pandemic
The virus was introduced by the likes of laundry and catering staff entering the PRIVATE facilities minus any protocols including not even masks (and staff were not being obliged to even wear masks by the PRIVATE operators who held the bed licences gifted by Santoro and Howard
Now, courtesy of NSW, both the ACT and Victoria have health settings to contain then reduce transmission from human being to human being pending vaccination rates (and what does Grattan say about that?)
The Delta strain seeded directly into the socio economic group at most risk – removalists into a high rise in Melbourne’s western suburbs, then into schools and child care facilities
But in Victoria we have Murdoch, Costello and Stokes not only in print but radio and television
And the cohort Banks refers to in her opinions
And the findings of the WA Liberal Party inquiry into the election wipe out there
The religious right – the god botherers who are anti vaccine
And the self interested business lobby groups assisted by the likes of Bennett
They may be loud
But they are in a significant minority, confirmed by the appetite for vaccination and where I again refer to Grattan – and Turnbull
What is the population of Greater Melbourne- and how many protest noting the publicity media (including unfortunately the ABC) give them?
What about the overwhelming majority who are complying, keeping the infections in check ahead of 80% (and more) being double vaccinated
Then the right wing recalcitrants tee off at ICAC!!!
Spare me
Andrew Constance running in an adjoining federal seat (sort of) to his state seat, but one with its base (Nowra) hundreds of km away from Constance’s base (Bega).
I wonder how that is going to go down with the locals.
No prizes for guessing what our faux progressive P1 will do with her preference vote though, is there? Assuming she doesn’t go all in and come out of the closet in her full tory power stance.
I would be surprise if any of the current state NSW lib/nats will want to go into federal politics if there is a Federal ICAC or an integrity commission comes in .
Boerwar @ #1852 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 9:38 am
Well it IS Angus Taylor, who really should have his job description shortened to Minister for Rorts and Ham-Fisted Attempts to get Clover Moore.
ItzaDream,
Will compete for Gilmore. Fiona Phillips will be challenged to hold on for Labor.
Also means that Perrottet is likely to have found the numbers now.
What was the podcast mentioned at the end of insiders, anyone catch it ?
He’s high profile is Constance, and far from camera shy. Was front and centre of NSW transport, for better or worse, mostly worse, and was very fired up (sic) after the bushfires raged through … Gilmore.
I was wondering how many people here have found a way around the pay walls of the various outlets, especially the Australian. BK’s excellent work in providing the links is mostly wasted on me because I cannot find a way to read the articles.
bug1
The Brief. It’s a selection of Canberra political reporters reprising the past week.
Constance would be a strong favourite to flip Gilmore back to the Libs. I am a little surprised he’s not going after Eden-Monaro.
“The whole state is grieving because people respected her decency and honesty ”
WFT?? Did see an interesting interview on ABC about this. Ex ICAC commissioner saying he didn’t think there was any imperative for Gladbags to resign, particularly not from Parliament. Hey, maybe she is using this as an excuse to get out of a crap job and get a life??
But, some of the stuff about her in the media at the moment is truly vomit / cringe. level.
Libs and their media boosters playing to the election.
Lol, loved the bit on Insiders this morning with Dear Bridget asserting, Plan….what Plan!!!
Not interesting. Tragic.
Ed Husic used to be president and before that NSW secretary of my union, the CEPU.
A swing 2.6% is required to flip Gilmore. Against the flow, even with a high profile candidate, that is a massive ask. Also likely it crashes the NSW government further into minority.
[‘South Africa have regained their No.1 world ranking with a 31-29 victory over the All Blacks thanks to a penalty after the full-time siren from Elton Jantjies.
For the second time in as many weeks, it looked like Jordie Barrett had sunk the Springboks’ hopes with a late penalty, but the world champions had other ideas, snapping a three-game losing streak in thrilling fashion.
New Zealand opened up a 20-11 lead when Brad Weber crossed in the 33rd minute before South Africa scored 14 unanswered points to make it 25-20.
The All Blacks kicked a penalty before Barrett added another three points in the 76th minute to help New Zealand open up a one-point lead.
Janties booted a 77th minute drop goal to put his side ahead before Barrett kicked a penalty with less two minutes remaining to regain the lead.
However, New Zealand lost possession with 15 seconds to go in the match as Duane Vermeulen won a breakdown penalty before South Africa marched downfield and won a penalty that Jantjies nailed from in front.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/wallabies-sweat-on-kerevi-s-fitness-for-spring-tour-after-win-over-pumas-20211002-p58wnu.html
Labor wins federal government at the upcoming federal election , if the federal independent corrupt commission / integrity commission does it job properly
By-elections will be held in seats of
Every front bench member of the Lib/nats who were in the former government