Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
😀
Skull tie pin: bad.
Pearl tie pin: ???
KymSunflowerCandle @KymLouiseC
Vog: Volcanic fog. Sulphur dioxide etc.
Vog warning: volcanic smog arrives in La Palma after eruption
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/02/vog-warning-volcanic-smog-arrives-in-la-palma-after-eruption
Freak snow storm in January; first volcanic eruption in 50 years.
Volcanic ash is NOT GOOD for astronomy | La Palma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzzbVA5n8IU
My first daylight saving since WA had a trial before the referendum, maybe 10 to 12 years ago.
I remember I liked it then, and being on the east coast I assume I’ll like it now.
Dr Doolittle
Yes . Thank you . I agree with most of that although the NSW aprriach is more sophisticated.
The low indigenous vaccination rate is especially troubling in that its reason are more speculated upon than known. No planning to vaccinate or no desire to be vaccinated or where in the middle? NT vaccination rates are diminishing rapidly.
Japan will be another point of reference.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:47 pm
”So, because Tanya is a smarter and better person that any of the Tories, she is unsuitable for a Labor leadership position?”
Labor doesn’t have an effctive attack dog at the moment and it needs one. Not the leader but maybe an ambitious up and comer.
—————
KK is a pretty effective attack dog, but even if she was minded to have a go at Gladys the fact of her having also been NSW premier would complicate things considerably. However, attacking people is a strategy best used judiciously in politics (and in the context where the attackee is another participant in an online forum is almost always pointless and destructive). As with Scomo’s recent Father’s Day escapade, if you want to have an attack dog ready to go personal in order to get the message out there, it’s a good idea to have the leader prepped to gently contradict the attack, so he or she can be perceived as rising above the fray.
Julian Hill is becoming quite effective in his attacks on the government. And he’s not bad to look at while he’s doing it either, just sayin’. 🙂
Confessions @ #1905 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 6:34 am
Me? Not so much. Our neighbours combined it with a Long Weekend party, on their balcony, playing 1970s Middle of the Road music until 11.30pm last night. 😡
It wasn’t the party so much as their choice of music. 😆
Jaeger @ #1901 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 3:51 am
My son, who has a warped sense of humour, just sent me this (I think it’s current but is made to not look like it):
https://youtu.be/pnS07NS8110
This is the point being made being made by some about Berejiklian’s resignation. Ultimately she is responsible for the choices she has made. Isn’t that what we were told about Julia Gillard?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-may-feel-for-berejiklian-but-she-is-responsible-for-her-own-choices-20211002-p58wmy.html
C@t:
Sounds like my kinda party with 1970s music!
Confessions @ #1803 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 7:35 am
The Doobie Brothers, Elton John, America, Glenn Campbell, Rodriguez 😆
C@t:
Oh. I was thinking more Credence, Lynyrd Skynyrd, Bob Seger and Queen.
Now that’s a party.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And it’s Sparse Sunday again.
We may feel for Berejiklian, but she is responsible for her own choices, declares Jacqui Maley who draws comparison to the treatment Julia Gillard got.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-may-feel-for-berejiklian-but-she-is-responsible-for-her-own-choices-20211002-p58wmy.html
The Premier never had much luck with men, even the ones she didn’t choose, writes Jamine Perrett.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/boo-berejiklian-s-bad-luck-with-men-is-a-scary-affair-20211002-p58wn7.html
Gladys Berejiklian’s undoing will harden Morrison government hostility to federal ICA, warns Hugh Riminton.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/03/gladys-berejiklians-undoing-will-harden-morrison-government-hostility-to-federal-icac
James Massola reckons Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation narrows Scott Morrison’s path to victory.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-berejiklian-s-resignation-narrows-scott-morrison-s-path-to-victory-20211002-p58wmi.html
The Australian’s Yoni Bashan says that Friday’s developments merely reflect that Berejiklian always was on borrowed time, and this opens the possibility of a Labor election win.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/gladys-berejiklian-unapologetic-exit-opens-possibility-oflabor-victory/news-story/32a1ba99ec553ec1c156df507894ed48
And Massola reports that Labor and the Coalition are ramping up for the federal election, with advertising agencies chosen, campaign headquarters identified, and key personnel tapped ahead of the looming national poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-liberals-pick-election-personnel-as-battle-for-warringah-narrows-20211001-p58wdh.html
Defence Minister Peter Dutton is running a hard line towards China. But he’s not unstoppable. A federal election is coming up and the voters of Dickson could very well vote him out, says William De Maria.
https://johnmenadue.com/minister-for-attack-can-anything-stop-peter-dutton/
Australia’s submarine strategy has always been lacking, write Jack Waterford who says “All of our choices over the past 50 years have been bad ones, and going to America (or Britain) and going nuclear will be a bad one too.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7452510/were-making-the-same-mistakes-again-with-nuclear-submarines-choice/?cs=14329
The sudden commitment of the Australian Government to build nuclear-powered submarines is a tale of some skulduggery and a game of high risk/high return, writes Lee Duffield.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-risky-business-behind-morrisons-submarine-deal,15585
‘I can’t do this any more’ is the lockdown lament that must be addressed, writes Jon Faine.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/i-can-t-do-this-any-more-the-lockdown-lament-that-must-be-addressed-20211001-p58wfb.html
Aisha Dow writes that it is predicted Victorians will have to wait another month before the state’s COVID-19 infections start plateauing because of a concerning surge in cases that’s been blamed on grand final parties, coffee dates and other illegal gatherings.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-outbreak-peak-still-in-sight-but-delayed-by-rule-breakers-20211002-p58wmz.html
Kaye Lee begins this contribution with, “We hear a great deal about ‘freedom’ from those on the right but what they really want is freedom to impose their idea of morality and ethics, freedom for the individual to prosper with scant regard for the collective good, freedom from transparency and accountability, freedom from responsibility.”
https://theaimn.com/freedom-from-responsibility/
In this exposition, John Lyons say that we must end self-censorship on Israel and Palestine. He says, “the notion that anyone who criticises Israel or its army is being anti-Israeli or anti-Semitic is nonsense.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/touchy-subject-we-must-end-self-censorship-on-israel-and-palestine-20210909-p58qco.html
Hillsong Church is in crisis. Australia’s greatest cultural export – with 131 churches in 30 countries, 150,000 weekly congregants, 50 million churchgoers singing their songs each week, and over three billion YouTube views – has been enveloped in a series of scandals that sound like a biblical parable: the thing that has made it so powerful is what has brought it to its knees, explains Elle Hardy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/03/in-reckoning-with-its-demons-hillsong-will-be-forced-to-move-away-from-what-made-it-powerful
Peter FitzSimons provides a transcript of has conversation with Jonathan Swan about the famous “train wreck” interview of Donald Trump.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-had-no-idea-i-was-such-a-ham-looking-back-on-donald-trump-s-train-crash-interview-20211001-p58wey.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Mark David
Reg Lynch
From the US
After Chockas Saturday, I look forward to Sparse Sunday, BK. 😆
This is a very perceptive comment under the Jaqueline Maley opinion piece:
C@t
I’ve just seen that teachers in Melbourne have been arrested for anti-vax protests. I really don’t understand.
Unvaccinated people will be banned from flying international on Air New Zealand, the airline’s chief executive Greg Foran has announced.
The new rules will apply from February 1, next year.
“As I mentioned, the feedback we’re getting from staff and customers is pretty overwhelming on this, they want to feel safe when they get on an Air New Zealand plane, either to leave or to come back into the country,” Foran said.
“And the other thing which I think is really important is that increasingly we are seeing other countries close their doors unless you are vaccinated so, you know, if you want to get into Rarotonga or get into Fiji or get into the United States you’re going to need to be vaccinated so this makes a lot of sense.”
lizzie @ #1810 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 8:18 am
lizzie,
I saw an interview Dr Sanjay Gupta did with a nurse yesterday, who has been a nurse for 12 years, deals with Covid patients but was adamant she would rather lose her job than get vaccinated!
Dr Gupta patiently explained all about the vaccines to her and busted every myth or otherwise, and all she could come up with as a defense was, she wasn’t going to be told what to do, and ‘blood clots’. Even though she could access a vaccine which doesn’t cause blood clots. Some people are just damned contrary, or delusional, or both.
As for the teachers, you may find that more than a few come from the religious school world.
lizzie @ #1809 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 8:13 am
Howard would realise a consummate politician who could expertly pull the wool over people’s eyes, when he saw one.
VicGovDH
@VicGovDH
·
8m
Reported yesterday: 1,220 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 36,248 vaccines administered
– 71,275 test results received
– Sadly, 3 people with COVID-19 have died
1,220 new cases in Victoria
Victoria has recorded 1,220 new cases of COVID-19 and 3 deaths, with Melbourne set to become the most locked-down city in the world tomorrow night, beating out Argentina’s Buenos Aires at 245 days in lockdown.
The new cases were detected from 71,275 test results, marking a second straight record day of testing in the state. They bring the state’s total number of active cases to 11,785.
A total of 36,248 vaccine doses were administered at state-run sites yesterday.
Over 81 per cent of Victorians have now had a single dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, while over 51 per cent have been fully vaccinated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/victoria-covid-wrap-sunday-october-3/100510384
Trouble today is it’s an hour later than I think it is on this 71 hour weekend.
I can’t list them all, but many ‘spiritual’ leaders who frankly are in it for the money have been brought down by their own moral failures (and not just ‘Christian’ ones).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/03/in-reckoning-with-its-demons-hillsong-will-be-forced-to-move-away-from-what-made-it-powerful?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
lizzie
Alas, there’s many a teacher out there who scrapped in with a bare pass with their HSC/VCE.
I know of five who are refusing to be vaccinated (two for religious reasons).
Weird to watch someone I like and respect suddenly throw the switch to nutcase and start raving about ‘putting poison into your veins’ and Nazi Germany.
zoomster
Religious reasons? Believing that the blood of Jesus will save them? Or something.
There is also the problem of what Andrews can offer as a reward for obeying restrictions, (re: Jon Faine) and would it make any difference now.
I think that this time next week there will be virtually no mention of Gladys in the MSM as they move on to other things.
Perrottet or Stokes will become NSW premier on Tuesday, Morrison will remain under fire from state and territory leaders over health funding, the Barnaby circus will continue and Hillsong’s Houston will be fronting up to court soon.
zoomstersays:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:54 am
lizzie
Alas, there’s many a teacher out there who scrapped in with a bare pass with their HSC/VCE.
I know of five who are refusing to be vaccinated (two for religious reasons).
Weird to watch someone I like and respect suddenly throw the switch to nutcase and start raving about ‘putting poison into your veins’ and Nazi Germany.
But why only in Victoria.
It isn’t just Victoria, the idiots are in NSW too:
– child care workers
– aged care workers
– paramedics (one even suing the state govt over its vaccine mandate)
– nurses
Anti vaccine numpties can be found everywhere around the world, even those who object on flimsy grounds such as religious belief.
C@tmomma @ #1917 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 8:12 am
Not just Sky news but the Murdoch Press as well. Continually anti Dan and anti Anna
Samantha Maiden suggesting Gladys has likely very recently been interviewed by ICAC before the current investigation into her was revealed, as is the usual practice.
Andrew Probyn praising Gladys through the pandemic. Best on ground.
Hopefully the NRL Grand final will not be the catalyst for a surge in Covid cases, particularly for NSW Qld and ACT.
Vic and ACT seemed to surge after the AFL grand final.
Many of the upcoming horse racing carnivals, if uncontrolled crowds are allowed, could also result in an increase in Covid cases across the country.
The last thing that Australia and the states need is irresponsible, self-centered politicians promising freedom days and “normal ” Christmas to gain a political advantage.
The recently departed NSW Premier has to accept responsibility for much of the financial, social and physical pain that all Australians have had to endure as a result of her poor decision making.
No amount of “wheeling” out of the aging Howard changes the facts.
The greatest risk to Australia’s immediate future is the blinkered, blunderer Morrison and his tunnel vision for his own legacy and future.
The message should be to keep a tight rein on opening up.
The fact that the liberals and nationals are within cooee of another election success reflects badly upon all Australians.
Guardian article canvassing Porter’s chances at the election (assuming he stands):
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/03/well-on-the-nose-is-christian-porter-beyond-redemption-in-his-wa-seat-of-pearce
ItzaDream
The fact that they were private hearings is almost certain. They would’ve been private hearings before the public hearings last year as well.
Morning all. Thanks BK.
I saw Insiders this morning will discuss (NSW) ICAC. So as soon as they don’t like the umpire imposing a penalty they want to do away with the umpire. Labor must keep emphasising the shameful absence for a Federal ICAC. Another Scomo promise broken.
Meanwhile Berejiklian’s inquiry has not even started yet and they are already trying to rehabilitate her image and destroy her critics.
I think given the almost total annihilation of any credible political ideology in modern political parties, preventing corruption is more important now than ever. From Australia to USA, with all the Greece’s in between, corruption is usually associated with countries in economic decline. Stopping it is more important than any area of economic reform. Corruption sees millions stolen and billions wasted. Then we wonder why we cannot afford decent schools.
Thank you, BK
‘Australia’s submarine strategy has always been lacking, write Jack Waterford who says “All of our choices over the past 50 years have been bad ones, and going to America (or Britain) and going nuclear will be a bad one too.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7452510/were-making-the-same-mistakes-again-with-nuclear-submarines-choice/?cs=14329‘
_______________________
More than 50 years, actually. It goes back to a failure to buy a single submarine between 1918 and 1939.
A few clapped out Dutch subs sank more Japanese ships than the entire Australian navy did in WW2. Submarines sank more than half the Japanese merchant fleet in WW2.
Australia started WW2 without a single submarine.
NFI.
Steely
I don’t teach in Victoria so I don’t know what it’s like there.
There has been a bit of coverage about a guy (not a teacher) who has been organising protests etc in the name of teachers.
Just as the last riot involved fake tradies, I’m pretty sure there’s a few fake teachers at this one.
I’m taking lizzie’s word for it that those involved are really teachers.
There was an interesting analysis I posted here in the last week that far right movements are more likely to protest in Victoria because they’re marginalised.
Thanks shellbell, and in the wider world, a glorious morning.
Three women on the panel, by the way.
From a year ago
Ed Husic makes a strong point to start with, that if Gladys was so worried about this being the wrong time for her to be forced to resign then why did she cancel her daily press conferences?
Another take on Xi’s Evergrande and power crisis fuck ups:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/china-evergrande-property-bubble/100496768
glad to see Ed Husic not engaging in any Plibersekian praise of Berijiklian.
Clearly though Husic represents a very different part of Sydney than Plibersek does.
Ed Husic is smashing it out of the park right now.
A rare thing indeed….a Labor spokesperson passing on the peace pipe and letting it rip.