Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Why does John get special treatment?
“Cry havoc, and let slip the ear worms of war!”
Late Riser says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 8:08 pm
…
I struggle to put my finger on what binds Americans, but pride is a strong thread that runs through the people. Maybe it’s enough, if it’s attached to the idea of democracy. (Pride is also why I think the January 6 commission is going to be relentless.)
Don’t think you have been there. It isn’t like the movies.
” Comfortably Numb ” – Pink Floyd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEf4kSv81UU
According to a recent poll, 21 million Americans subscribe to armed insurrection in the wake of Trump’s drubbing. Perhaps he’ll die of natural causes?
Lurkersays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 2:00 pm
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 1:33 pm
We pretty much know the extent of Somyurek’s activities. The really interesting question is how much of a bucket he will tip on other Branch stackers, ‘red shirt’ activities etc. How much does he know and how much can he prove and provide eye witness testimony?
________________
Shovel left at the front door?
We do like to handle our corruption allegations in-house down here in Victoria.
I’ll be interested to see how things go for Dan Andrew’s from here. He seems to have almost completely lost control of his State.
Goodness, Scotty made it into The Times of London cartoon section ? 😉
Shellbell @ #1794 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 5:58 pm
Shellbell. Wishful thinking. You still believe the specious numbers put out by the NSW propaganda industry. From the clinical coalface, Dr Doolittle is more correct.
Most of us think Dan Andrews is doing a fantastic job.
If only the ratbag Murdoch press and traitorish Liberal Party Opposition would leave the adults protecting the State alone, Victoria would be much better off
Bucephalus says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 8:41 pm
I’ll be interested to see how things go for Dan Andrew’s from here. He seems to have almost completely lost control of his State.
It is unfortunate the people who read the sun/herald and listen to the shit from the Liberal can still spread covid, isn’t it.
‘Bucephalus says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 8:41 pm
I’ll be interested…’
——————-
…to see how the most corrupt federal government since Federation goes.’
What’s it like knowing that you are in the scum team?
Bucephalus @ #1672 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 8:41 pm
Don’t read too much into what the Hun is saying
Awwww , don’t they make a lovely couple.
Hmm…
Jaeger, don’t mind if I do
A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.2 struck near the Vanuatu islands in the South Pacific on Saturday, the European Mediterranean Seismological Centre said.
No tsunami warning was issued due to the depth of the quake, said the U.S. Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
The quake, which was upgraded from a preliminary magnitude of 6.7, was at a depth of 531 km (329 miles), EMSC said.
There were no immediate reports of any injuries or damages from the earthquake.
How would a couple of squadrons of Spitfire go against our new enemies?
One for the road, arguably one of the best renditions of Bellini’s
aria from “Norma” – Casta Diva:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvWs9j0Z9Ns
I was in the audience circa ’84, where Sutherland performed it in a concert for world peace. Oh well, it was when she was well past her prime, the adulation at the time over the top. That said, she put bums on seats in the Concert Hall in the Opera House.
Up here, the best they can do is the HOTA, the last time I went to a performance was Thomas’ “Under Milkwood” – “The villagers in Llareggub lead ordinary, mundane lives. …”.
Dr Doolittle
Billington’s graphs show just how precarious a situation we are in. We are now cruising at an Reff of 0.9 NSW wide. This is despite the effect of all the vaccination to date. You only have to ease restrictions in a way that causes 10% more infections and you’re back to an Reff over 1.0 and the certainty of a disaster.
I get the logic of allowing only vaccinated people to mingle. But we’re talking about an increase of far more than 10% in terms of human to human interactions. In other words we’re messing about in a boat with a couple of inches of freeboard.
It bothers me that the media have been feeding off the whole “freedom day” mentality and seem to assume that the “adults in the room” (ie Chant and up to a few moments ago Gladys) actually know what they are doing.
If and probably when cases start climbing exponentially, there’s going to be some very confused people out there – especially in the media.
frednk @ #1852 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 8:31 pm
It’s not clear to me what you mean, sorry. But pride is a strong component of the culture over there, and that can manifest for good and bad. If you’re commenting on the commission, I think it’s too soon to say, but I think the anger will smoulder for a while. (Specially if Trumpists keep reminding everyone.) If your meaning is that the events of January 6 isn’t the movies, I agree.
Cud Chewer @ #1863 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 9:04 pm
Danish pastries – complex, oversold and not very good for ones health?
nath and Taylormade salivating over the Somyurek Inquiry. How bloody tawdry. And absolutely expected.
What is the story with Victoria is it just that they are so sick of lockdowns they are going stir crazy, surely NSW has the same wankers. Has it got to do with having to have the first jab before many can work. Surely they know the only way out is to vaccinate.
Plibersek’s reaction to the resignation of Binchicken shows you that she lacks the killer instinct and visceral hatred of Tories needed to lead Labor! Cab you name a single Tory who would have reciprocated? That is why they are beating Labor federally. For too many Labor MPS, politics is nothing more than an abstract game.
Re Shellbell at 5.58 pm
A Covid comparison with Denmark (population 5.8 million) is interesting but not reassuring for those of us in regional NSW, for several reasons.
The date of 25 Oct has been officially declared as when NSW will reach 80% of the adult population double dosed. When Denmark lifted Covid health restrictions on 10 September it had reached 88% of the adult population fully vaccinated (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, report on 30 September 2021, p 28). So there is some difference there, but the main differences need to be understood diachronically by examining the full context of the Covid situation in a specific country, not just synchronically at a particular juncture.
When Denmark lifted health restrictions it was 7 months after the end of its worst wave last winter. By contrast, NSW will still be in the down phase of its worst wave so far, before the expected increase once significant restrictions are lifted. This time difference is crucial with regard to the burden of hospitalisation. Even Gladys did not hide the fact that overloading of the NSW hospital system will be happening just when the lifting of restrictions will quickly increase the daily caseload, and hence the expected burden on the hospital system within weeks.
Now consider geography. The distance from Copenhagen (Danish capital in SE) to Frederikshavn in the north is only 480km, less than the distance from Sydney to Eden. Denmark’s level of urbanisation is 88%, slightly less than NSW, but not many Danes live a long way from advanced hospital care. By contrast, there are over 50 towns in NSW with more than 5,000 people outside the extended area of Sydney, Greater Newcastle, Central Coast and Wollongong. Put this fact together with coincidence of the increased burden on the hospital system and the lifting of restrictions, and you get a trajectory that is unlikely to end up where Denmark is currently with Covid, which is around 400 cases and a few deaths each day.
Then there is the awful plight of Indigenous communities facing overcrowded homes (a longstanding problem that has been ignored by the federal and state governments) and limited health resources and social support networks. How much real political action has been devoted to assisting those communities in the current crisis? Very little, according to reliable reports, like the NITV program about the tragedy in Wilcannia, broadcast late at night a month ago and summarised at:
https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2021/09/01/are-we-going-die-wilcannia-leader-criticises-lack-support-covid-infections-rise1
There is still time for the NSW government to learn from other countries’ experiences in relaxing health restrictions, but because of their performance so far one cannot be hopeful about that at all.
What is most revealing is the simplistic nature of the planning for the great relaxation, based only on one variable alone (the vaccination rate), and even then taken as a convenient average without regard for the reality of large pockets of vulnerable people (including those living with disabilities) in NSW when the expected rise in Covid cases occurs in late October and November. There are many variables but, because of the arrogant politics shown by the current NSW government, hope must lie elsewhere.
Another country worth watching is South Korea, the first country outside China to be badly affected by Covid. It has twice Australia’s population, and a per capita death rate similar to ours (49 deaths per million there, and 51 here). It is in the middle of its worst wave, yet is planning to diminish its health restrictions (which have not been as strict as in NSW) in November, around the same time as NSW. It will be interesting to observe whether Australia or South Korea is in a better situation by December, when the northern winter should make it harder for infections to be limited there than in Australia.
“Cab you name a single Tory who would have reciprocated? ”
So, because Tanya is a smarter and better person that any of the Tories, she is unsuitable for a Labor leadership position?
Get help clem. 🙁
Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:05 pm
What is the story with Victoria is it just that they are so sick of lockdowns they are going stir crazy, surely NSW has the same wankers. Has it got to do with having to have the first jab before many can work. Surely they know the only way out is to vaccinate.
NSW doesn’t have the Murdock press and Labor trying to undermine the health response.
Plibersek’s reaction to the resignation of Binchicken shows you that she lacks the killer instinct and visceral hatred of Tories needed to lead Labor! Cab you name a single Tory who would have reciprocated? That is why they are beating Labor federally. For too many Labor MPS, politics is nothing more than an abstract game.
Its called class mate Plibersek has it and swinging voters appreciate it.
Late riser
Sorry you read it before I edited my response.
I don’t think pride is it. I would go for ignorance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XirnEfkdQJM&ab_channel=BigThink
frednksays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:11 pm
Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:05 pm
What is the story with Victoria is it just that they are so sick of lockdowns they are going stir crazy, surely NSW has the same wankers. Has it got to do with having to have the first jab before many can work. Surely they know the only way out is to vaccinate.
NSW doesn’t have the Murdock press and Labor trying to undermine the health response.
Nah it is something else basically the same news sources and none are backing them, all are calling them out as idiots.
Just popping in for my twenty dollars worth, or maybe thirty.
Seeing someone else was exposed for their donations the other day, so I’d better keep it quiet.
All said regardless of that, donations should not be revealed, but that is my occasional twenty or thirty dollar throw in when I can afford it.
Goodbye Gladys. Tears are in my eyes. Joking!
Pity the poor lurkers!
Despite being told otherwise, donations are not confidential.
Anyway that’s my thoughts.
Cud chewer was called out for being rude and the point was made that donating does not give you special privileges.
”So, because Tanya is a smarter and better person that any of the Tories, she is unsuitable for a Labor leadership position?”
Labor doesn’t have an effctive attack dog at the moment and it needs one. Not the leader but maybe an ambitious up and comer.
Gladys has been forced to resign because of corruption allegations. Had she been a Labor premier subject to corruption allegations she would have been ferociously attacked day in day out by the Coaltion Opposition and its media allies on the basis of even the flimsiest (or made up) evidence.
It’s asymetric warfare. Maybe kicking Gladys on the way out may not have been helpful, even in the face of the most sickening attempts to make her out to be martyred saint. However, how about a solid kick for whoever replaces her.
Boerwar says Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 8:53 pm
That brings to mind this Mitchell and Webb sketch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn1VxaMEjRU
“ How would a couple of squadrons of Spitfire go against our new enemies?”
Now your talking!
Had she been a Labor premier subject to corruption allegations she would have been ferociously attacked day in day out by the Coaltion Opposition and its media allies on the basis of even the flimsiest (or made up) evidence.
What bullshit, thankfully the leaders of your party don’t have a chip on there shoulder.
“ How would a couple of squadrons of Spitfire go against our new enemies?”
Now your talking!
Hiccups again! Sorry.
“ thankfully the leaders of your party don’t have a chip on there shoulder”
For the Labor Leadership, there is no point making oneself the target of deflection for the liberal adjacent media as one of their heroes flames out.
Us plebs shouldn’t feel so constrained though. Fuck em’.
If you’re in a war and your uniform has a skull on it, you’re one of the bad guys. Simple.
Scottys submarine plan turning to shit:
EXCLUSIVE
PM urged to abandon plan to build subs
A large group of centre-right elder statesmen, senior former defence department figures and leading think-tank experts have made the call.
By GREG SHERIDAN
On this happy note I’ll say goodnight to all.
Love the music!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pey29CLID3I
frednk, thanks for the link.
Andersen’s points. (1) America is founded on the principal that you are free to believe whatever you want. (2) Trump won in 2016 in large part because of the cult of fame. (3) Fame for it’s own sake is a measure of America losing touch with reality. (4) The internet makes this worse, and that’s a problem. (5) The lack of real immediate consequences also allows this to get worse.
Overall, what he says is interesting, but I’ll need more to be convinced that the people of the USA have totally fragmented into competing pockets of opinion. Consequences still exist for all of us. Regardless, I’ll stick with my thesis. (1) Americans are proud people. (2) The events of January 6 dented that pride, and that’s a problem for which lesser differences can be set aside. (Hmm. Maybe “Restoring Democracy” could be a the theme for the mid terms?)
Where I will disgaree Steely… something.
Yes, we all know what the Murdochracy (aka the Gladys protection racket) would have done had the roles been reversed and it was a Labor Government failure that led to a national outbreak… Let’s not pretend that wing of the media aren’t distorting the record to a staggering degree.
Where I will agree.
WAY too many here are trapped in the political discourse from long ago. The idea that the ideal Labor leader is a bellowing bloke in a Trades Hall is utterly disconnected from what politics is today. Every single piece of data shows, despite the clear failure of the NSW Government, Gladys IS NOT UNPOPULAR. My mother, a Labor voter, albeit one that only started voting Labor in 1998 after many years as a solid Lib is certainly not pleased Gladys is gone… and she’s definitely not alone from what I’ve seen.
There is nothing politically to gain, other than giving partisans the jollies, in going after Gladys UNTIL targeted hearings can occur and there’s wrongdoings that are clearly hers and can be explained easily.
For all Pollbludgers and William.
Whatever I say at times, I love youse all!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJzNZ1c5C9c
This is really goodnight, just realised I’ve lost an hours sleep!
Daylight saving.
Been There,
That’s a decent thing to say. Thanks. 🙂
Sadly I think Gladys was just a more polished Scott Morrison, all marketing, girl next door act that many people lapped up. But it was masking what was a seedy underbelly of corruption, not just her but also many in her government.
The media was happy to make let know that the former Labor govt was corrupt, but the current Liberal Govt is no better, but they don’t say squat about it.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/30/morgan-54-46-to-labor-7/comment-page-38/#comment-3718063
It may not be the best strategic time for attacking Gladys, however, that does not provide any excuse for repeating baseless praise, particularly about her COVID mismanagement.
Been There,
That was a nice surprise…thanks!
The early pioneers were right when they suspected that a parliamentary Labor Party would go soft. Plibersek’s comments were embarrassing. Labor should be going for her throat, not sending the bitch flowers!