Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Yes the way the Bondi cluster got everyone to have their AFL parties last week and NZ to have a holy quarantine.
Kate McClymont
From experience, when a public inquiry is announced much work has already gone on behind the scenes both by commission investigators and in all the private hearings. While nothing is pre-determined, #ICAC has a pretty clear idea of potential outcomes.
This is a question people often ask.
Professor Adrian Esterman
Just to clarify. At diagnosis, infected unvaccinated and vaccinated people have a similar viral load. However, the vaccinated people have fewer symptoms, so are less likely to pass it on. Also, over the next few days, the viral load in vaccinated people drops much more rapidly.
I wonder what will happen to Dr Chant now. She understood the people of western Sydney better than Gladys.
Steve777
Mr President why do you keep calling it the China virus “because it came from China.” Same same just different.
The dumbest argument is that this virus started in NSW therefore it is all NSW’s fault. Victoria new earlier in the their outbreak than NSW and still could not stop Delta and have since done a worse job than NSW in controlling and a worse job it getting its people vaccinated, there hospital system is already having more issues than NSW at it’s peak.
FFS even NZ cant get on top of it and are behind Australia in vaccination rates as well and remember Adern is the best leader in the whole wide world. QLD will be next and it won’t be there fault just inevitable how they deal with it and how they get there people vaccinated is how they should be judged.
Steelydan
Yes. It makes Morrison’s vaccine failure worse.
Too little Too Late
Edit: Don’t think that means the NSW failure on PPE and vaccinating front line workers first disappear
Victorian new Covid cases continue to escalate at about 7% daily, as they have been for about four weeks. There’s no sign of any peak, if anything the rate is accelerating.
The green curve is the three-day centred average, the red one is the seven-day moving average.
Victoria @ Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 9:55 am
Very interesting. I would like to see evidence that there is a difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic onward transmission despite having an equivalent viral load. I haven’t come across it. My understanding is that viral load is the key prognostic for risk of transmission.
@AdamBandt tweets
Victoria’s numbers today aren’t great. So I’m focusing on a number that gives me hope.
94,259.
That’s the number of Victorians that went out, rolled up their sleeves, and got vaccinated. Every single one making themselves and our state a safer place.
You absolute legends.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/shock-and-cold-fury-berejiklian-s-hand-reluctantly-forced-20211001-p58wk5.html
Gladys Berejiklian’s strength was on full display on Friday as she resigned as premier but, as her parliamentary career comes to an end, it’s hard to overstate her achievements.
The prevailing view of nearly every commentator accept PB’s of course. Like I said an innate meanness on on here and not found in your average ALP voter.
UK Cartoons:
The original L S Lowry:
Steelydan
NZ v Aus vaccines .The difference between vaccines administered per 100 people is Aus 107.61 vs NZ 107.41 a whole 0.2 . The bunch of incompetents you are a fan of had the huge advantage of 1,000,000 a week home grown vaccines to play with on top of the Pfizer supply. Yet they still screwed the roll out schedule..
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?country=AUS~NZL
Innate meanness? The treatment of Julia Gillard attests an innate viciousness on the part of the Right.
One has to do epic cognitive dissonance to accept Deborah Snow’s hagiography.
Congratulations Steelydan, you join the media and a large slice of the general public in NSW in that regard.
But how good is pillaging the public estate to mates to create private monopolies?
How good is letting delta run wild through Australia when one had a better than even money chance of crushing it initially?
How good are rorts?
How good is allowing the National party free reign to destroy the remanant bush and traditional farming alike west of the GDR?
How good are dodgy boyfriends?
How good is the $2 billion over budget slow as fuck light rail?
How good are property developers? Hoteliers? Banksters? Toll roads?
How good are stadiums?
How good is Gladys? Sigh.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1525 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 9:28 am
As you elucidated your initial comment I now understand where you were coming from. It was ambiguous until then.
A_E
If the current Planning Minister becomes Premier it doesn’t look good for the future. Unless Gladys over rode him all the time of course.
@PRGuy17 tweets
Sharri Markson says she will reveal explosive evidence today which proves NSW ICAC went to a strip club in 2009 and may have helped to create covid in a Wuhan lab. #satire
She rode him like a jockey Lizzie.
That aside, he still doesn’t inspire confidence. It just a shame that as bad as the Liberals are – especially their governing MO – the talent pool opposite them in the State Parliamentary Labor Party doesn’t inspire confidence either. Especially given the recent purge.
From BK’s sterling effort this morning:
They both went before ICAC started really digging.
In O’Farrel’s case, he was the tip of the iceberg. Remember the “Cricket Team” of cross-benchers, all disgraced Liberal MPs who taken Developer Cash, well before O’Farrell shuffled off (as a result of what I always thought was a pretext to get him out of the limelight)?
In Gladys’s case, she has permitted, indeed accelerated the spivification of NSW to greater extents than even the Rum Corp could have hoped for.
Uglification has inevitably followed. She paved paradise and put up parking lots attached to shonky apartment blocks, constructed by $2 donor companies. Then she undermined the disaster by digging tunnels under it all like a demented badger. Gladys Berejiklian has made Sydney unliveable anywhere west of Rose Bay.
I can still remember the looks on the faces of the couple – stranded up here due to COVID – who bragged of being her couturiers, as my mate and I told them people in these parts don’t think very much of Gladys.
“Why?” they asked, with that astonished look on their faces Liberals assume when they’ve just heard that, actually, you vote Labor.
“Because we’re perfectly happy living in Snoozeville, but she’s hell bent on letting the plague come up here in the school holidays to stuff it all up for us,” my mate Brian and I chorused.
They said her resignation announcement yesterday was “emotional”. It wasn’t. It was robotic and rote, like the reading of a death sentence before the lever is pulled. Like the way she has run her government, for nice people, in nice houses, in nice suburbs, while the rest can pay tithes to her spiv mates, wasting away their lives in stationary cars, just so they can get to work.
A true psychopath, she is, and good riddance to her. God knows who the next Premier will be, but he’ll need his joggers on if he’s trying to out-monster Gladys Berejiklian. Gladys’s going has just about exhausted the supply of plausible Macquarie Street stock. It’s bottom of the barrel sludge from now on.
A public once besotted by Our Glad may at last realise that rules are not meant to be broken. They are meant to be enforced. This goes triple for Kate McClymont who appears to believe that ICAC should only function as a way of getting rid of Labor politicians. With three Liberals axed, to nil Labor Premiers, plus the Cricket Team, she may finally get the message.
PROTESTORS FAULT ANTI VAXXORS FAULT
”
zoomstersays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:06 am
This is frankly insulting to women. We’re not helpless victims of our impulses and emotions, who cast aside our moral compasses because we all love a bad man.
”
But what about the meme that smart women fall for bad guys?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unvaccinated-veteran-liberal-mp-risks-being-locked-out-of-office-20211001-p58wjl.html
SHOULD BE FIRED!
BB
“Digging tunnels like a demented badger.”
Thanks for the giggle.
‘
DisplayNamesays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:23 am
The smh:
Five years ago, South Australia was a laughing stock. Now its commitment to renewables is paying handsome dividends.
No Peter, they were only a laughing stock in the eyes of right-partisans and those with no foresight. You’ve essentially admitted that you and your mates in the CPG had the poor judgement to uncritically regurgitate the Coalition’s lines.
”
Chris Uhlmann is the biggest culprit of that misinformation and lies especially when he was employee of our ABC. At that time I did not know he was a Mad monk.
Gladys Berejiklian was the epitome of the ugly duckling that the Gorgeous Girl Group at school allow to become the claque to their exclusive clique because she supplied the lines and the strategies that enabled them to be Alpha Mean Girls. Gladys then parlayed that power, into power, using the girly elements that became synonymous with her public persona to advance her position and maintain herself in power, in order to beguile and befuddle, the media, the people of NSW and the Liberal Party.
It’s a stratagem that a lot of Republican Women in the US use too.
Andrew_Earlwood at 10:19 am
Could you give us a bit of a run down of what the ‘purger’ and purgee’ teams are ? From waaay out West when it comes to NSW politics I just think…………
Victoria @ Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 9:55 am
Addendum: Thanks for the prompt. I knew about the shorter duration of symptomatic transmission in model assumptions, but I was not aware of distinguishing between symptomatic/asymptomatic in models irrespective of viral load. This looks like a very reasonable summary of the literature and some novel modelling of transmission risk between symptomatic and asymptomatic vectors (NB:- not yet peer reviewed): https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/108569/1/MPRA_paper_108569.pdf
Summary: Viral load is still the dominant feature. I would not claim transmissibility between symptomatic and asymptomatic persons is different despite the same viral load, but I am not an expert. However, asymptomatic infectivity does last less in line with an earlier decline in viral load and that has reasonable evidence. Figure 1 on page 13 provides an easy to read plot. There may be a very slight difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission risk up until day 9, at which asymptomatic persons reduce to zero. But then we need to factor in movement. People are more likely to interact with asymptomatic people, so the overall risk of transmission can shift to asymptomatic people when we have less restrictions to mobility e.g. when we have Freedom Day.
Shorter Summary: It’s complicated.
Edit: NOT claim 🙂
”
shellbellsays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:43 am
Sidoti is a case in point. His hearing was months ago. When is the report going to be available?
”
Sidoti’s seat is one of the 3 seats NSW Labor needs to win in next state election(others being Paramatta and Penrith) which shows that it won the middle class vote back.
poroti
Who is at that desk?
guytaursays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:04 am
@AdamBandt tweets
Victoria’s numbers today aren’t great. So I’m focusing on a number that gives me hope.
94,259.
That’s the number of Victorians that went out, rolled up their sleeves, and got vaccinated. Every single one making themselves and our state a safer place.
You absolute legends.
________________
Waste of space.
Victorians have lost all hope and a tweet from Bandt is not going to make things any better.
”
Confessionssays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:47 am
Mike Cannon-Brookes.
He calls himself genuinely apolitical – he left Australia at 19, before he ever voted, but he is nonetheless swingeing in his criticism of the federal government and Energy Minister Angus Taylor’s so-called “gas-led” recovery.
“I don’t know whether Angus Taylor is an ideologue or an idiot or paid off by the gas industry, but there’s nothing technically reasonable or economically reasonable about his arguments,” he says.
”
It is quite possible that Taylor is all 3 of them.
The corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units attacking NSW ICAC
They should be attacking the NSW lib/nats , they were the one who created NSW ICAC
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 10:33 am
Gladys Berejiklian was the epitome of the ugly duckling that the Gorgeous Girl Group at school allow to become the claque to their exclusive clique because she supplied the lines and the strategies that enabled them to be Alpha Mean Girls.
__________________
I had no idea. I thought she was one of those girls who spent all their time in the Library and barely had anything to do with the Gorgeous Girl Group. I had no idea she was their strategist.
shellbellsays:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:43 am
Sidoti is a case in point. His hearing was months ago. When is the report going to be available?
Next week
Hearing finished yesterday.
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced on Thursday to one year in prison for illegal campaign financing in his failed 2012 re-election bid, making him the first French head of state in modern times to receive two jail terms.
It is unlikely that Sarkozy will serve his sentence behind bars: The judge said he could serve the sentence by wearing an electronic bracelet at home. All 13 co-defendants have been found guilty.
@DrJasonJohnson tweets
We were saying this was going on ALL last summer
@JoeMyGod tweets
Far-Right Boogaloo Boi Admits Posing As BLM Activist While Shooting At Police Station During Floyd Protest – is.gd/ZIEXw8
So frustrating that Labor can’t seem to crack the high 50s in the polling. Reading Laura Tingle’s piece, it sounds like the feds are very keen to get things opening up as soon as possible, and income support will be the first to go.
Will an early withdrawal of income support be the straw the allows Labor to ascend in the polls? I doubt it. Morrison has left the arts and other sectors out to dry over and over again, presumably because he’s made a political calculation that he can get away with it.
On another note, it appears that states like WA and QLD, who are under fire for not adequately funding their health systems in preparation for living with COVID, are pointing the finger at the feds.
“Queensland Health Minister Yvette D’Ath revealed on Friday that: “Every single Health Minister from every state and territory has signed a letter to the Commonwealth Health Minister, Greg Hunt, and said, ‘We need extra funding, we need 50-50 shared funding.'”
“We’ve had a funding guarantee under COVID until June 30,” D’Ath said. “That has now stopped. That needs to be reinstated.”
A Wichita Falls man who plotted to blow up an Amazon data center in Virginia is sentenced to federal prison today. Seth Aaron Pendley pleaded guilty in June to a malicious attempt to destroy a building with an explosive device and was sentenced to 10 years by U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor. Pendley was arrested in April while trying to buy C-4 explosive from an undercover FBI agent in Fort Worth. Pendley admitted that he disclosed his plan to blow up an Amazon data center to a confidential source in January and he hoped it “Would kill off 70% of the internet” including service to the CIA and FBI.
Tingle: NSW remains critical to the federal government’s political fortunes. So it is unfortunate that, as columnist Niki Savva reported a few weeks ago, the PM called NSW Treasurer and premier-apparent Dominic Perrottet a “f***wit” in a heated phone call about Perrottet’s repeated calls for JobKeeper to be reinstated.
Beautiful.
‘The high 50s’ !?! What planet do you live on!?! With the media the way it is, Labor are exhibiting immense political skill to be where they are now.
hazza
That raises the question. Where is Labour’s coalition of artists and scientists and political activists that Gough Whitlam was able to harness?
Kevin Rudd did the same to a lesser extent.
My conclusion is Labor has attacked them in an attempt to destroy the Greens politically.
Not all of Labor. Just those forces that deny the Greens helped at all during the Gillard years.
Victoria @ #1553 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 9:55 am
If vaccinated people have a similar viral load, but fewer symptoms, then you’d expect they’re more likely to be unaware they’re infected, and more likely to go out and about than people with overt symptoms. So, with the same viral load, more likely to pass it on, or less?
Crises in Brexit Paradise:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/britain-fuel-crisis-johnson.html
NSW recorded 813 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.
Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 10 people with COVID-19 – six men and four women.
One person was in their 50s, three people were in their 60s, two people were in their 70s, three people were in their 80s, and one person was in their 90s.
Couple of comments on the Age blog along these lines.
Yet another bad sign for Scotty
Morrison’s federal government refusing to provide additional funding into our health care systems…..Morrison’s argument, because it is a state responsibility….but quarantine and the national vaccination program, a federal responsibility, only made possible by state and territory assistance. Confused? Don’t be….Morrison has made it pretty clear where his priorities lay and it isn’t with the “health” of Australians. Remember this next time you vote…..
guytaur @ #1591 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 11:05 am
guytaur,
Two words to dispel your attempts at myth-making: Tony Bourke.
Maybe 4 words: Tony Bourke & Mark Dreyfus.
Both of them have deep ties into the Arts communities in their respective states. And, as members of a party of government, they can actually do things for the Arts community if they get into government. The Greens can only do Performance Art.
Itza Dream,
Hi, Itza!
*waves*
The global nomad is in Turkey now. 🙂
Just saw your post Griff. Same page.
U.S. COVID update: More than 700,000 deaths since pandemic began
– New cases: 128,251 ………………….. – New deaths: 2,482
– In hospital: 74,122 (-1,839)
– In ICU: 20,449 (-552)
718,983 total deaths now