Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
‘Perrottet said on Friday he would speak with his family.”
That could take a while
Socrates at 7:55 am
Thanks for the explanation. A very low act to use a tragedy like that as a cover for their actions 🙁
It is easy to imagine how different the media would be reporting the Gladys resignation,
If it were either Dan Andrews, Anna Palaszczuk or Mark McGowan.
Hence why the media continues not to be fit for purpose
It continues to prove how beyond pathetic it is.
Labor just have to put this image on all their corflutes which sit beside the candidate corflutes and they should be guaranteed of sending the right message to the electorate.
Scott
Victor Dominello 15.00
Let it ride.
Tony Wright reckons Morrison is sniffing the wind for an early election.
________________
He loves talking about the whales. Occasionally drive past his house on the way to visit my uncle.
Is right on the waters edge at Dutton Way. Lovely in summer, but horrendous this time of year with the wind from the South East.
Well it looks like the Christian Conservative project in the NSW Liberal Party to force women to the back of the leadership bus is working.
Remember GladysB is dating her ICAC lawyer.
Surely he has continued to provide her with legal advice.
His advice must have been damning for her to resign and leave parliament.
Shellbell says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 9:03 am
Scott
Victor Dominello 15.00
Let it ride.
—————————
Lol very tempting
In Victoria. 1488 cases from nearly 72000 tests.
2 people have died.
On the personal front. Family connection has had 10 people in his sphere contract covid.
All of them had managed to have first jab before contracting it, but for some barely a week before getting sick.
Report card.
One only got mild symptoms
7 very unwell. Never been so unwell. Now recovering.
2 in hospital. And one of those still in a bad way.
All of these people were under 50.
Victoria @ #1454 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 7:06 am
Surely he hasn’t. That would be most inappropriate.
1488 new Covid cases in Victoria, two deaths.
https://covidlive.com.au/vic
Barney ITB
You mean as inappropriate as having a secret relationship with another MP and not disclosing a conflict of interest?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1511 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 9:11 am
Naive.
Vic,
To the family connections:
Berejiklian was nice and not a god botherer so she was OK?
FMD.
List of achievements:
1. Set Covid off and running in NSW, Victoria, the ACT and NZ by doing gold standard politically- motivated slack arse lockdowns in Bondi. Incidentally killed many people and condemned many more to Long Covid.
2. Turned public investments into private monopolies.
3. Built the best clay pigeon shooting range in Australia.
4. Turned Kusciusko into the world’s biggest feral horse national park.
5. Accelerated New South Wales’ contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
6. Ran the MDB Plan into the ground in NSW with massive negative consequences for biodiversity and for rural communities that missed out on the boondoggles.
7. Gave farmers ‘management’ responsibilities for waterfowl.
8. Ran down management resources on national parks.
9. Managed vaxxing differentially such that rich white folks were favoured.
10. Ran shonky grants program as if they were normal government business.
11. Bullshitted to the media and to the public about covid management.
11. Failed to manage an explosion of building defects into a poorly regulated building ponzi scheme in league with her political darling Morrison.
victoria
Thank you for that sad summary. Shows how all-pervasive this thing is.
Bloody hell, Victoria, that is bad. I hope it all ends well.
Victoria @ #1459 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 7:12 am
No, I mean grounds for losing his ability to practice law.
If Berejiklian hasn’t engaged another lawyer to act for her, then it definitely exposes him to that.
Of course that doesn’t stop him giving her personal advice, but definitely not any legal services or acting on her behalf in a legal capacity.
C@t
I personally know half the people affected.
And they are the ones that are recovering.
Meanwhile, yesterday my OH who is an authorised worker travelled to do some outside maintenance on a property in a regional area.
Anyhoo. When he arrived he called the owner of premises, who asked OH if he had been vaccinated.
OH was able to show him his vax certificate downloaded on his phone.
Mind you my OH was not going to be inside at all and nowhere near the owners.
But still they wanted this reassurance.
Vic,
It’s good that people are taking it seriously. Especially after the previous week’s reckless behaviour by the raving lunatics, rabble rousers and the odd, genuinely concerned person in the CFFMEU.
I never liked her. I never got it. I thought her vision, and focus, was narrow and shortsighted. She lacked stature, depth. I could never get past what looked to me a two dimensional shallowness. I never felt she was there for ‘us’, and certainly not for ‘me’, but for the party, and only the party. The talk of ‘her citizens’ made me nauseous. We weren’t hers. She was meant to be ours. I’ve got a lot against her, and at the top is the irreversible environmental damage she oversaw. And I didn’t ever see a skerrick of empathy, or regret, to the bitter, and bitter it was, end.
In some irony, the woman I suspect she hated more than any, Clover Moore, continues her 15 year reign as the Caretaker of Sydney, and without whom, the city under the likes of Berejiklian would be a considerably lesser place.
Boerwar
These people all live and work in the LGAs were the virus has been running rampant.
Despite my connections all getting their first jab, wearing mask and doing all the right things.
People around them have not.
Hence why transmission has been easy.
It is no surprise that those who were not complying and not taking the virus seriously, have now changed their tune.
They are getting vaxxed etc.
Some people only learn lessons the hard way.
Katie Allen praising her evidence-based government and fibbing that Morrison stands ready to provide funds for health. I can’t repeat most of it because it’s a combination of b.s. and spin.
C@tmomma @ #1460 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 7:13 am
Really? Or are you just being shallow?
max @ Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 8:55 am
The 7:30 report was quixotic! So much to unpack there. We had Paul Farrell effectively breaking the story, getting vision of Gladys shooing his questions away in a press conference. What a coup! (NB:- not his first coup and he is an investigative journalist to watch). We have Tingle being impartially holding all politicians to account, including GB. And then we have Leigh Sales. Dressed in mourning black! Using biased and sympathetic language. Poor Gladys is exhausted? Is she being held to a higher account than Federal politicians? Dan the recent convert to living with COVID? Please!
I broke my rule to watch 7:30 while Leigh Sales was hosting yesterday. Had to listen to her opinions through gritted teeth to hear actual journalists report and analyse.
I assume that from now on the vocal anti-glyphosate cabal will be targeting China instead of the evil West.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-02/china-power-restriction-shocks-wool-industry/100506408
C@t
Here in Victoria, the opposition and the media have continued to relentlessly undermine the health message.
Add to that the fatigue that many have felt and vaccine hesitancy in the LGAs where the virus has run rampant, and you have a recipe for a virus that is difficult to control.
As I said the take up of the vaccine in these LGAs has shot right up now. They are now on board the vaccine train.
But only because their friends and families were getting very sick and dying.
It had nothing to do with availability of vaccines or English being their second language etc.
My daughter has been working in one of these LGAs for months and she has seen the change only this week.
Before that there was a blatant disregard
It made her very upset and uncomfortable.
z,
Being arrogant without good judgement is a political career killer.
Victoria @ #1204 Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 – 9:32 am
Hun is carrying on in its typical fashion about the vaccine mandate and jabless jobless. Refusing to see the damage they are doing – and that people want vaccinated staff and workers.
Paul Farrell was the journalist on the videocast with (a neat and tidy) Watson SC that Shellbell posted a few days ago, with thanks.
Unfortunately for Gladys, she and her supporters have already played the ‘hard done by’ by that bastard I was with, card…..And yet, as Sales tried last night, the exhausted woman line was given another spin…..
I did not notice what Sales was wearing and care even less as her simpering approach is in stark contrast to the short and to the point Tingle……..These days, rarely watch the 7.30 Report and even less inclined when Sales is on board……
Victoria @ Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 9:32 am
It has at least something to do with English as a second language. Facebook is a significant media source for arabic-speaking people in Sydney. Perhaps Melbourne as well? The messaging on vaccines via Facebook leaves something to be desired. It is also concerning that Facebook has recently decided not to agree to contract with SBS for content.
Laughtong
The hun can carry on all they like.
In fact Victoria now has 81 percent of over 12 years old having had first jab.
And Kos samaras makes these very salient points.
—-
Interesting how some have attempted to frame this week’s vaccine mandate.
‘1.2 million’ workers are now required by law to vaccinate’.
4.5 million Victorians over the age of 12 have received at least one dose.
3.5 million Victorians are currently in the workforce
So we are left with around 240,000 Victorians who are currently permitted to work and may not have had one dose. Not 1.2 million.
The Andrews government has sided with the 4.5 million. Some others in politics have attempted to side with 240k
You work out the electoral politics
The vast majority of this 240k are young people who may have been apathetic about the jab. Highly likely we are looking at around 15 to 20% of this group who genuinely don’t want the jab. 50,000 across Victoria, tops.
For those Victorians enquiring y’day it seems the pronunciation is Perro-tay.
It looks as though in the next couple of days we’ll see the usual suspects crowing about Victoria’s daily Covid cases passing the NSW peak of around 1,600. I bet they’d be delighted were there to be a sustained outbreak in WA.
But remember that it started in the “Gold Standard” state about 3½ months ago.
My estimate (rounded) for the size of the “Bondi Cluster” as at close of reporting yesterday: over 77,000 cases and 402 deaths.
This comprises 57,400 cases in NSW, 17,700 in Victoria, 900 in the ACT, 200 in Qld and about 1,400 in NZ. The deaths were 352 in NSW, 44 in Vic, five in the ACT and one in NZ.
@shalailah tweets
Let’s normalise the idea that strong women can make wise decisions about their love lives.
The notion that they’re all lovelorn teenagers on the inside despite their success and professional ruthlessness really needs to die.
Have I dated some sh*t blokes? Absolutely, yes. Have I let those relationships last several years or impact my work, family, friendships or finances? Heck no.
I can say very confidently that due to this very serious outbreak, victorians want reassurance that the people they are working with, have been vaxxed.
Back to reality again. Victoria 1488 new cases.
@NickFeik tweets
“ICAC curse”
Is this how we refer to alleged corruption now?
“She leaves the office with great class”
Ummm. No that’s not how she left.
“Premier brought down by choice of lovers”
I think ICAC actually investigates corruption
Steve777
The media have been quite useless as usual
They have spent weeks carrying on about Victoria and implying that NSW is frankly better in every way.
Every day they question the vic Premier in this way.
Imagine the Schaudenfreude.
The media were totally blindsided by GladysB resigning due to alleged corrupt behaviour being investigated
They really look like a bunch of incompetent fools.
To boot. They are now attempting to lionised GladysB
They need to get in the bin.
They are useless.
@AndrewPStreet tweets
For everyone justifiably concerned about there not being any good options to replace Gladys Berejiklian – the NSW premier who quit because of *a corruption enquiry* – maybe stop blaming ICAC and start asking why the Liberal Party have such a shallow talent pool? #merit #auspol
‘Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 9:44 am
Back to reality again. Victoria 1488 new cases.’
_________________________
Good point.
Berejiklian might be gone but her Bondi cluster is still doing its filthy work.
The WA Premier with some good advice for Sandgropers 🙂
https://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Perrottet
Boerwar
Precisely.
Yesterday my daughter was at work when the news came through that GladysB resigned.
The place erupted in cheers.
Good riddance Gladys, they said.
Thanks for nothing.
Lol
My response in the comments section (which probably wont be published) to the sick making hagiography of Deborah Snow in the SMH this morning:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/shock-and-cold-fury-berejiklian-s-hand-reluctantly-forced-20211001-p58wk5.html#comments
______
“ Her greatest achievement has been her success to get the media to write endless hagiographies like this piece despite the objective evidence of very poor – and compromised – decision making going right back to the start of her Ministerial career. Start with the Sydney Light Rail Project and work forward from there. From bean to cup, she stuffed up.
The congaline of journalists, like the author of this article that have facilitated that, should hang their head in shame, given her true record of incompetence and mismanagement, a very small selection of which includes:
– selling the LTO to create a private monopoly
– furthering the private toll road monopoly
– selling the public bus network to create a private monopoly
– demolishing perfectly good public buildings only to rebuild them at a cost of billions
– promising a cessation to further privatisations, only to keep privatising the public state immediately after the last election
– the regional grants rorts
– not shutting down the Cruise ship industry in the 6 weeks between the Diamond Princess disaster and departure of the Ruby Princess in early March 2020
– confusing luck with ‘good management’ regarding the Crossroads tavern and later the Avalon cluster outbreaks, thereby entering the deadly delta phase of the pandemic full of hubris, arrogance and breathtaking incompetence. We are now – all of us – still living in lockdown because of her failures to not shut down the east suburbs fats enough (at all) or go into a properly hard lockdown in Sydney before it was too late.
Sydney Metro aside (and thanks Morris Iemma for having the vision), her record in Government is staggeringly bad. That’s even before one considers the emerging alleged corruption aspect. …”
@barriecassidy tweets
This is exactly how the Murdoch media played it in the US. with Trump. When the justice system gets close attack the justice system.
@SharriMarkson tweets
‘Lynch mob’ takes down yet another leader.
ICAC has left NSW rudderless and has robbed the people of a popular premier at a time of crisis and uncertainty.
A law unto themselves, ICAC is addicted to the power and publicity of the bombshell political scalp.
Listened to ABC RN on the way back from the shops, they were discussing some NSW tragedy. From the piece I heard some bastard has killed Bambi and Mother Theresa