Crying Fowler

A plan to move Kristina Keneally from the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler looks set to solve one problem for Labor while creating another. Also featured: a Senate vacancy and a state poll from South Australia.

Before we proceed, please note a) the post below on electoral developments in California, Canada and Germany courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, and b) the fact that tomorrow is the day of the by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Daly, where the Country Liberal Party is defending a margin of 1.2%.

Now to the week’s big item of federal election news, which is that Kristina Keneally is set to be parachuted from her current position in the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler, which will be vacated with the retirement of Chris Hayes, who holds it on a 14.0% margin. The Australian reports this will be accomplished by fiat of head office, without a ballot of local party members.

Moving Keneally to the House of Representatives resolves a difficulty arising from the 2016 double dissolution, at which three of the four elected Labor Senators were allocated full terms of six years, which will expire in the middle of next year. This includes two members of the Right – Sam Dastyari, whom Kristina Keneally replaced after his resignation in February 2018, and Deborah O’Neill – and Jenny McAllister of the Left. Since factional arrangements reserve second position on the ticket for the Left, either O’Neill or Keneally faced delegation to third position, which has not been a winning proposition for Labor at a half-Senate election since 2007. As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, the power of O’Neill’s backers in the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association appears likely to secure her the top spot, although The Australian cites unidentified Keneally supporters saying she was confident of beating her.

The use of Fowler as a backstop for Keneally comes with the substantial difficulty that the electorate boasts the nation’s highest proportion of non-English speakers, in large part owing to the presence within it of the Vietnamese enclave of Cabramatta. As such, Labor appeared to have a promising successor lined up in Tu Le, a 30-year-old lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees. By contrast, Keneally lives in a $1.8 million property in Sydney’s northern beaches. Le had the backing of Hayes and, according to another source cited by The Australian, would have won a rank-and-file ballot if one were held. The ABC reports senior front-bencher Tony Burke shares Hayes’ displeasure at the development, although it also notes that others in the Right felt Hayes “had no right to try to act as a kingmaker or name his replacement publicly”.

In other Labor preselection news, Tom Richardson of InDaily reports the South Australian Senate vacancy created by the death of Alex Gallacher last week is likely to be filled by Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and convenor of the state branch’s Left faction. According to the report, a Senate seat was set to pass from Right to Left in the factional deals arising from the abolition of the federal seat of Port Adelaide at the 2019 election. Gallacher’s death may have had the effect of preserving Steve Georganas’s position in the seat of Adelaide, which might otherwise have been used to create the requisite vacancy by providing a refuge for Right-aligned Senator Marielle Smith.

Also from South Australia, the Australia Institute has published a Dynata poll of state voting intention, although it was conducted back in July from a modest sample of 599. It suggests Steven Marshall’s Liberal government might struggle at the March election, recording 38% support to 34% for Labor, 10% for the Greens, 5% for SA Best and 12% for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,894 comments on “Crying Fowler”

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  1. jt1983 says:
    Friday, September 10, 2021 at 10:13 am

    I think the obsession with KK’s time as premier is very much a bubble concern.

    The ALP will need to be ready with clear arguments – but her being parachuted in against a local person will be a greater burden in the electorate than anything involving an Obeid.

    It wouldn’t matter to News and 2GB if two thousand people a day are dying of Covid. If they want the re-election of Scomo they will run “KK is Eddies girl” line and Ch 9 and 7 will be on the band wagon pretty quickly! I can see the Daily Telegraph front pages from here!

  2. lizzie @ #200 Friday, September 10th, 2021 – 11:14 am

    I can’t listen to Gladys. At the beginning I used to try, but even though I am what is called a “native English speaker” her sentences often make no sense to me, or are so hedged about with qualifications as to be meaningless. I cannot imagine that any of the families in the “LGAs of concern” bother trying to listen.

    and Barilaro speaks so quickly – regiruwalnewsowfwales.

  3. Gladys sick of finding ways to avoid questions and accountability. So, just refuse to front the media.

    Today was another peak in cases, and this is before their idiotic freedom day. Where fatality had been low, they are climbing now.

    And the wheels have come off the vaccine push. NSW vaccination rates had looked good when swamped with Pfizer, but they’re off the peak and declining now as vaccine hesitancy takes over.

    Monday was the lowest day for nsw first doses since 10 august – basically a month. Daily vaccination rates now are driven by 2nd doses, but they’re running out of people to vaccinate before they even reach 80% of adults. There’s no way nsw will ever reach the sort of target required to live with covid (act is aiming for 95% and looks on track to reach it)

  4. One of the best guys I ever worked with pioneered lifting drowning people out of the sea horizontally, not vertically, where the blood stayed in the lower limbs, at the expense of the brain, and you kept on drowning as your lungs kept filling up.

    Did they try pulling them out feet first?

  5. Journos out in protest. This is typical.

    Patricia Karvelas
    @PatsKarvelas
    ·
    4m
    To abandon the daily accountability opportunity for journalists to ask questions when deaths and cases are rising is one of the most disturbing decisions I’ve seen. The bushfire is raging and we will get videos?

  6. GR

    I agree. However I think you are overstating the negative effect.
    In a way it could work for Labor. That campaign won’t work in all zero state case jurisdictions especially Labor ones.

    I have seen enough from outside the PB bubble to know the anger of Victorians and West Australians is enough to be remembered with a campaign nudge from Labor.
    Plus Labor will be campaigning for the ICAC the LNP has blocked.

    The LNP are shafted. Labor wins on that. The LNP loses.

    Edit: Think Trump calling Democratic corruption including the Big Lie against Biden.

  7. NSW has turned out to be the gold standard in unaccountability!!!!

    What a frickin disgrace.

    And the liberal and national MPs together with the media have the gall to continually pay out on Victoria.

    Get in the bin. Pathetic doesn’t even begin to describe it!!

  8. sprocket_

    I can see why GladysB won’t be having any more press conferences. Daily ToiletPaper will shift the reporting to p17.

    Not all reporting. There will still be regular reporting like this, currently at the top of the online page.

    Our say: WA must face the danger

    WA Premier Mark McGowan has worked himself into a Jaws-level state of panic over Covid, writes The Daily Telegraph.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-too-many-people-are-having-their-heartstrings-torn-out-in-lockdown/news-story/fd89c629c49be16c7b8df1ad8d7474d3
    Binchook’s Gladystan scored a

    New freedoms for NSW as state records 1542 new cases

  9. This may be controversial, but a popularity poll in Western Sydney would have Eddie Obeid way out in front of GladysB – short memory.

    And Eddie, despite being a crook on the take, was not responsible for economic catastrophe and increasing death toll.

  10. Shorter Gladys:
    This could go on for years. We shall never know exactly when we reach the peak and there is no point in me standing here each day. We must learn to live with Covid.”

  11. Katharine Murphy @murpharoo

    I hoped I’d missed something in translation. Apparently not. This is an absolute disgrace. This outbreak is not over. The mission is not accomplished. In a democracy, political leaders are accountable to the public. Front up. That’s the job #auspol

    Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden

    Hiding while your citizens die.

    It’s not leadership. But sure looks like cowardice https://t.co/afAEu09Tjy

  12. Gladys disgracing herself: scrapping daily press conferences before we get past the peak of the current outbreak and before we open up at fake 70% or get to fake 80% and beyond is beyond disgraceful.

    The inference is that she didn’t like the ICAC questions yesterday.

    At the very least, she should front the cameras 3 times a week, with Bruz and Health Hazard filling in on the other days.

  13. The SMH in-house journos today are STILL puzzled about why Morrison is secretive.

    So here are the reasons again:

    .● If he keeps everything a secret then we won’t know which secret is the one he really doesn’t want us to know.

    ● He sees requests to reveal secrets as a power transaction, as in “Knowledge is power”. If he keeps a secret, then he is one-up on the person who wants him to reveal it. This is not confined to just secret matters of state. Has anyone ever seen him supply a straight answer to any question, on any subject, no matter how benign?

    David Crowe today (in seemingly reluctantly giving Morrison the benefit of the doubt regarding Father’s Day) pointed out that the PMO was shitty with Labor over the revealing of the return trip to Kirribilli. How DARE they ask questions! Don’t they know WHO they’re daring to criticise? As if only Labor – and not millions of ordinary Australians deprived of the same opportunity – wanted to know about the use of taxpayer money and executive jets to fuel ScoMo’s “National Dad” obsessions.

    Crowe, in a fairly ordinary apologetic for Morrison’s massive arrogance, made no mention of the deliberate use of a deceptive photograph captured months ago that gave the impression there wasn’t a more up to date one taken on the day. And he framed the criticisms as being aimed at a father’s wish to be with his family on a father’s special day.

    There was only one problem: not one person, Labor or otherwise, has criticised that.

    The only criticism I’ve heard is that if you want to lead by example, DON’T hire an executive jet at taxpayer expense, plus Commcars, hangers-on, dodging of LGA lockdown regulations (how many strictly locked-down areas did Morrison traverse?) and fake photos to make it look like you’re doing it tough like every other father who misses housewife and kids.

    This would usually be the kind of thing that ScoMo would make a song and dance about (if he advertises building a cubby and a chook shed, why not flaunt Father’s Day?). That he kept it a secret and indeed seemed to actively seek to misrepresent how he spent Father’s Day, indicates a guilty conscience.

    He wasn’t guilty of being a father. He was guilty of availing himself of the perks of office on a grand scale – executive jet, crossing lockdown zones, harbourside mansion, the lot, with bells whistles and gold taps.

    Those perks are why a copper’s-son-made-good out of humble Bronte beginnings seeks the Office in the first place. Never underestimate the venality, the pettiness, and the kiss-up, kick-down ordinariness Scott Morrison.

    Australian politics is full of his victins: side-swiped, Judas-kissed, betrayed, lied to, played off against each other, trampled upon on his way to the top, and just bored shitless by the way he can talk through wet cement, while breathing through his ears, but saying nothing… nothing he means, anyway.

    His day of reckoning will come, pretty soon too, as it always has, and for the usual reasons.

  14. Poroti

    The LNP forget. Trump did the dirty on voters trying to cater to sanity and crazy.
    Just as they are doing now.

    That’s why too little too late is a good campaign slogan for the election even months from now. It sums the government up and points to how voters have lost.

    Even the Sydney Eastern Suburb elites lost their vacation time and income.
    That’s what’s going to cause the swing to Labor. The LNP have hit voters with both attacking the safety of their health and attacked their income.

  15. Isn’t amazing that at ba time when 8.2 million plebs in NSW cant get a simple haircut that both Binchook and her BBF Alex Smith clearly have been getting their hair professionally styled at least three times per week.

  16. ItzaDream says:
    Friday, September 10, 2021 at 11:19 am
    I appreciate what Health and Allied Service do, but I’m getting pretty sick of this chest beating best in the world stuff.

    _________________________________

    It’s a right wing trope. You see everywhere in the world where a right-wing populist is in charge.

  17. Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    ·
    1m
    Well @GladysB I think you can now see how the “no daily press conference” thing is being received. A very bad decision.

  18. Glad Tidings’ decision to abandon press conferences is all about normalising covid in the community. So called ‘living (actually dying) with covid’ policy.

  19. Laughtong

    During our second wave,Dan Andrews fronted up each and every day.
    Over 100 days in a row.

    The hun were actually telling Dan to have a day off. Of course, if he did take a day off, all hell would have broken loose.

  20. @PRGuy17
    ·
    6m

    WTF: Gladys Berejiklian has sensationally claimed her time-boxed pressers provide more information than any other state, adding she doesn’t believe any other state comes close. Um, what?!

  21. Katherine Murphy nails it.
    @murpharoo tweets
    I hoped I’d missed something in translation. Apparently not. This is an absolute disgrace. This outbreak is not over. The mission is not accomplished. In a democracy, political leaders are accountable to the public. Front up. That’s the job #auspol

  22. I mean, at the very least, any decent leader, let alone decent person, would *want* to front the people every day to guide them through the shit storm that that person had landed them in.

  23. “ Glad Tidings’ decision to abandon press conferences is all about normalising covid in the community. So called ‘living (actually dying) with covid’ policy.”

    When the community is actually fit and ready to ‘live with covid’ (and putting aside the bullshit with fake 80% and delta it is going to need a much higher rate of vaccination AND ongoing social distancing before we get their – ie. at a start 85% of 85% of total pop (a true 72%, rising past a true 80%) AND a milder form of covid goes through a vaccinated community AND our booster vaccination system is up and running AND we know that we can handle international departures and arrivals at much greater numbers than now. Being optimistic: March 2022.

    Clocking off now? OMG!

  24. If Gladys going into witness protection then the outbreak in Sydney is going to be worse than we even thought. Good luck everyone.

  25. Watching GladysB with the sound muted – pursed lips, furtive glances left and right, looks terrible – perhaps the pressure is just too much for her?

  26. guytaur says:
    Friday, September 10, 2021 at 11:21 am

    I have seen enough from outside the PB bubble to know the anger of Victorians and West Australians is enough to be remembered with a campaign nudge from Labor.

    WA Labor’s federal campaign material features Mark MacGowan + Candidate. The Party is asking voters to re-state their support for MacGowan. This is very likely to work. It was a spectacular success in March. Morrison is not popular in WA. There is no Lib figure with anything like the recognition and approval that MacGowan has.

    MacGowan is the physical as well as political embodiment of WA scepticism of “Eastern Staters”. The WA electorate can be relied to vote their independence and welfare before anything else. What’s not to like!

    (Needless to say, the Greens campaigned against MacGowan, and sent their prefs to various nut-job nonentities, like the Daylight Savings Party and Legalise Cannabis rather than to Labor. They are reflexively hostile to Labor at every level, even in the time of covid.)

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