Before we proceed, please note a) the post below on electoral developments in California, Canada and Germany courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, and b) the fact that tomorrow is the day of the by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Daly, where the Country Liberal Party is defending a margin of 1.2%.
Now to the week’s big item of federal election news, which is that Kristina Keneally is set to be parachuted from her current position in the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler, which will be vacated with the retirement of Chris Hayes, who holds it on a 14.0% margin. The Australian reports this will be accomplished by fiat of head office, without a ballot of local party members.
Moving Keneally to the House of Representatives resolves a difficulty arising from the 2016 double dissolution, at which three of the four elected Labor Senators were allocated full terms of six years, which will expire in the middle of next year. This includes two members of the Right – Sam Dastyari, whom Kristina Keneally replaced after his resignation in February 2018, and Deborah O’Neill – and Jenny McAllister of the Left. Since factional arrangements reserve second position on the ticket for the Left, either O’Neill or Keneally faced delegation to third position, which has not been a winning proposition for Labor at a half-Senate election since 2007. As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, the power of O’Neill’s backers in the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association appears likely to secure her the top spot, although The Australian cites unidentified Keneally supporters saying she was confident of beating her.
The use of Fowler as a backstop for Keneally comes with the substantial difficulty that the electorate boasts the nation’s highest proportion of non-English speakers, in large part owing to the presence within it of the Vietnamese enclave of Cabramatta. As such, Labor appeared to have a promising successor lined up in Tu Le, a 30-year-old lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees. By contrast, Keneally lives in a $1.8 million property in Sydney’s northern beaches. Le had the backing of Hayes and, according to another source cited by The Australian, would have won a rank-and-file ballot if one were held. The ABC reports senior front-bencher Tony Burke shares Hayes’ displeasure at the development, although it also notes that others in the Right felt Hayes “had no right to try to act as a kingmaker or name his replacement publicly”.
In other Labor preselection news, Tom Richardson of InDaily reports the South Australian Senate vacancy created by the death of Alex Gallacher last week is likely to be filled by Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and convenor of the state branch’s Left faction. According to the report, a Senate seat was set to pass from Right to Left in the factional deals arising from the abolition of the federal seat of Port Adelaide at the 2019 election. Gallacher’s death may have had the effect of preserving Steve Georganas’s position in the seat of Adelaide, which might otherwise have been used to create the requisite vacancy by providing a refuge for Right-aligned Senator Marielle Smith.
Also from South Australia, the Australia Institute has published a Dynata poll of state voting intention, although it was conducted back in July from a modest sample of 599. It suggests Steven Marshall’s Liberal government might struggle at the March election, recording 38% support to 34% for Labor, 10% for the Greens, 5% for SA Best and 12% for the rest.
guytaur says:
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 7:44 am
In the case of Keneally with her stint as Premier in the Obeid years it will be the argument of the LNP. Corruption overriding democracy. Not a good look for a party doing the whole ICAC thing.
———————–
If there is a change of federal government
The liberal/national Party members will be busy fronting the Federal Integrity commission , this is where the problem for the Lib/nats particular those who were in ministerial positions , if they are found to be corrupt , they would have to quit parliament and a lot of by-elections in the lib/nats seats
”
Michelle Pini writes about Morrison’s underwhelming effort at the Women’s Summit.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrison-finlay-and-a-tame–but-not-tame-enough-womens-summit,15495
”
He gave a speech Ms. Pinni. What else can he do?
Those North Adelaide houses have a very grand degree of grandeur.
poroti will appreciate Marise Payne’s comment on The new Afghan government…
“They’ve asked for respect. Well, in my book respect is something that you have to earn.”
Not sure the Afghan gov is going to take lessons on respect from an Australian minister in a government that has tried to wash its hands of (and then sitting on them) the brereton report.
Scott
That won’t stop the LNP.
Just see how they use Obeid as Berejikilian is being asked about questions related to ICAC.
I expect the hypocrisy. I am not defending it.
Cud Chewer at 8:01 am
Re the rapid tests. I saw that topic come up at an NZ presser. It was mentioned that their desire to continue to use genomic tracking of all cases in the effort to eliminate this outbreak meant it was not ,currently, widely used.
Socrates,
The Tamil family were in Perth last time I checked.
Liberal party would be rather foolish to put a Dutton , Frydenberg or any other former Liberal party front bencher as a leader of the opposition , it is more likely than not they will be in trouble with the federal Integrity commission .
Thats if the federal Integrity commission is a full operation independent commission
Jaeger
Good point, I had forgotten that.
I agree it would hardly be fair to Sandgropers to force them to host the Morrisons.
guytaur says:
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:07 am
Scott
That won’t stop the LNP.
Just see how they use Obeid as Berejikilian is being asked about questions related to ICAC.
I expect the hypocrisy. I am not defending it.
————-
The Lib/nats can try but their problems with the federal Integrity Commission , will make them look like jokes
DisplayName
“If those numbers can be stable around some arbitrarily picked number like 1000, then they can be stable around some arbitrarily picked number like zero :P.
You can’t have it both ways. Either it will be possible to get to zero by maintaining a higher level of restrictions while using vaccines, or zero is impossible and this virus so terrible that opening it up is “let it rip” even with vaccines.”
Exactly and I’ve been saying this since last March.
What I find really amazing is that those who should be pointing this out, aren’t. The official narrative amounts to a simple equation: R = 1.0
Anything higher and bad things happen. But what we’re not saying is that R = 0.99 will, in the absence of re-seeding, result in exponential decay to zero. This amounts to a tiny shift in behaviour/policy.
One more thing though. Contact tracing contributes significantly to reducing R. But when cases are above about 200, contact tracing doesn’t work. Conversely, when cases fall below about 200, contact tracing kicks in and you get a beneficial feedback.
So why isn’t our policy about keeping cases “stable” but under that threshold? Why? Because there’s still a lot of idiots in the medical fraternity who do actually think “you’re all going to get it” and therefore “the sooner the better”. Plus idiots in the political and business realm who think that pushing cases to the point of failure of the health system has an advantage over keeping under the 200 or so threshold. One other thing. That 200 limit could go higher if we were prepared to stop being idiots and allow do it yourself testing.
I guess we’re going to have to learn the hard way about this. And maybe the media and some experts might eventually point this out.
Btw, there is a balance between R, the rate at which we introduce carriers from overseas and the residual level of cases. This is why allowing open-slather international travel without very tight restrictions (lots of testing) is a dumb idea.
Simon Katich at 8:06 am
Funnily enough NZ just got some of that ‘earned respect’ from the Taliban . 🙂
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/life/300403304/journalist-charlotte-bellis-on-that-taliban-press-conference-life-in-afghanistan-and-why-being-a-kiwi-helps-her-feel-safe
NorthAdelaide is a special place full of special people.
Instead, get yourself a horse stud out near BK with a large house and manicured gardens. Dams, creeks, bushland, paddocks, stables, sheds…. Cheap-as (in Sydney terms) and less than an hour easy drive from a ‘city’ and its international airport (which I am sure will one day be useful again).
An hour drive from 3 wine regions. A couple of hours from another. And a little more to the Coonawarra. Take a lazy weekend to the Grampians even fine dining at Dunkeld (one day soon). Or a longer trip to the flinders or the seafood capital of Australia.
You know it makes sense. And your east coast money is good for business. Adelaide peeps seem to have spiders in their wallets no matter how full.
Let’s not forget the Balmain boy, and subsequent Paddington resident – who became one of the greatest Premiers NSW has had – Neville Wran.
He was able to do this while representing the SW Sydney seat of Bass Hill, the wise voters of which gave him a minimum of 60% and a high of 78% over 6 elections.
poroti
“Re the rapid tests. I saw that topic come up at an NZ presser. It was mentioned that their desire to continue to use genomic tracking of all cases in the effort to eliminate this outbreak meant it was not currently, widely used.”
They’re fortunate to still have things tightly under control and thus have a rapid response (hours in most important cases) with PCR. Compare and contrast to what happened in NSW. A lot of cases were leading to retransmission because it was taking days to get a PCR result.
However, there is a role for rapid testing and it works like this.
Anyone being actively investigated (as in determined to be a contact) gets PCR. But on top of that..
– You apply rapid testing to anyone who travels between cities, works in a high risk environment (like gyms), manages the elderly, teaches etc.. You get the picture
– On top of that you allow rapid tests to be bought and used by anyone. With the proviso that if you score positive, you self isolate and get a PCR to back it up. I can imagine a lot of situations this would be handy and aren’t in the thought orbit of the “officials”. There are people I’d meet tomorrow, if they were rapid tested.
The failure to stand up a rapid testing system for “essential” workers in Sydney is at the core of the spread.
Scott
Yes I hope you are right. It’s good Labor is prepared for the LNP attacks.
The hypocrisy has never stopped them before.
SK
What about the Barossa town with the sort of castle and its own cricket ground?
Sydney & NSW people are very happy with the Hunter Valley vineyards, thanks for asking. And then we get to go back to…Sydney! And other various areas along the NSW Coast. Now, remind me what the beaches in Adelaide are like again? 🙂
sprocket_ @ #65 Friday, September 10th, 2021 – 8:21 am
That was back in the day when it wasn’t such a big deal, but since then outrage machines have made it one.
Nice pitch, SK!
C@t
Fantastic beaches, they are 1100 km from Sydney. While Perth beaches are 2,200km better than Adelaide beaches.
Paul KeatingFormer prime minister of Australia
The Morrison government is provoking China to please America
The Coalition government is ignoring Australia’s interests by pushing us towards a confrontation with Beijing, mainly to be seen in Washington as America’s fawning acolyte.
The Morrison government is wantonly leading Australia into a strategic dead end by its needless provocations against China.
China is not the old Soviet Union.
It is not attacking or forcibly incorporating countries into a grand union, nor is it exporting some kind of universal ideology.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-morrison-government-is-provoking-china-to-please-america-20210902-p58o9i
poroti
Careful. You’ll get branded as a cave dweller.
The beach at Robe is great because you don’t need to worry about finding a park in the car park.
The Kangaroo Island beaches are near perfect, IMHO.
A $1.8 million house on Sydney’s Northern Beaches:
Cat
Saying what it looks like and what attacks to expect is not to say Labor made the wrong political decision.
However you cut it facts are facts and William is right.
Keneally is going to have her work cut out to undo the barrier to the local electorate created.
Remember it’s not just about wealth. It’s also about diversity.
The North Shore South West divide Berejikilian has ignited is not just about wealth it’s ethnicity combined with class division.
C@t, KK will move to the electorate.
She is only a recent Scotland Islander, mostly living in Pagewood in the Eastern Suburbs. Her kids are adults, so there is no problem in picking up some digs in Fowler.
The retiring invisible non entity Chris Hayes has a hide nominating his successor by the way.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-labor-powerbroker-backs-kristina-keneally-switch-amid-backlash-20210909-p58qdu.html
poroti @ #72 Friday, September 10th, 2021 – 8:33 am
I guess so 😉
DisplayName and cud chewer,
In complete agreement with respect to trying to achieve equilibrium in case numbers. I would go further and say that a zero is easier to achieve than an equilibrium point at 1000. In a complex system with emergent properties such as changes in behaviour on top of unknown efficacy of individual restrictions, it is easier to adopt the kitchen sink approach and aim for zero, if you over shoot you get there faster. An R < 1.0 is a much larger range than R = 1.0 to aim for. And if you fail to achieve R < 1.0 despite adopting the kitchen sink strategy, you were very unlikely to achieve equilibrium at R = 1.0 anyway.
So, we have turfed using cases and we have moved to hospitalisations and ICU beds as our units of measure. Yet, the same principles apply. The NSW government have decided that we can vaccinate faster than overwhelming the health system and think that 56% (and increasing) vaccination and a limited increase in mobility will be the settings that will allow this to occur. And they are doing this WITHOUT modelling. The Doherty model and the publicly released Burnet modelling do not model the opening plan with our starting parameters and the planned relinquishment of restrictions.
Courageous.
This is something the vic govt has been working on in recent times.
——–
Classroom CO2 reading from an undisclosed high school in Sydney. Forget vaccination. Forget everything else. If we don’t sort ventilation NOW, then it is game over if there is any significant outbreak. https://t.co/HIKst5yeec
sprocket_,
I’m sure the people of Western Sydney/Fowler will actually appreciate having a Labor heavy hitter represent them, rather than one of the members of the Hayes family, who do see themselves as mini potentates in NSW Labor.
If KK was smart, and she is, she would offer Tu Le a position in her office to get her used to the rigours of politics first.
Steve777 @ Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:35 am
Look at all the room for extentions! Bargain 🙂
NSW’s out-of-control Delta outbreak saw the state have one of the highest vaccination rates in the world late last month but authorities are beginning to fear that number is slowing.
More than 42 per cent of NSW residents are now fully vaccinated with the state on track to hit 80 per cent single dose on Monday.
But Premier Gladys Berejiklian warned yesterday said the vaccination rate had declined slightly and urged people to turn out.
“(Wednesday) in New South Wales we had just over 107,000 people get vaccinated, which is a great outcome. However, we are seeing that rate slightly decline,” Ms Berejiklian said.
“We really need to call upon anybody who hasn’t had any doses to come forward and get their first dose, but also to make sure that you come forward for your second dose as soon as you can as well.
“That is really important for us to keep the pace that we have managed to have in the last few weeks.”
guytaur says:
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:23 am
Scott
Yes I hope you are right. It’s good Labor is prepared for the LNP attacks.
The hypocrisy has never stopped them before.
I have no doubt the Greens will show up regularly as concern trolls, with guytaur setting a clipping pace.
Griff
Nah. It’s other people who are going to be doing the dying so no worries for Gladys.
Joe Biden showing leadership on vaccinations…
https://youtu.be/fsIK9S7nfJU
Big Business, backed by the MSM, thinks it has won, but Small Business, with few employees and lack of capital, is going to suffer.
Seconded SK and BK. Xanthippe and I have never regretted moving to Adelaide. No question we get a better quality of life for the same money. For what we sold our home back east for we bought a lovely four bedroom home here on a big block (huge by Sydney standards) in the eastern suburbs with a wine cellar.
Poroti
Speaking of WA, who was it who said we would have to chose between fighting covid and saving the economy?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-10/wa-budget-border-likely-to-remain-closed-for-months/100448008
I can understand why you guys look at the Nullabor as being a sort of moat these days.
FredNK
By that metric William is a concern troll.
Just not affiliated to any political party.
Stop trying to stifle political observation by using concern troll as a bullying tactic.
Meanwhile unsurprisingly
Reported yesterday: 334 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 39,027 vaccines administered
– 42,998 test results received
– Sadly, 1 person with COVID-19 has died
More later: https://t.co/lIUrl1hf3W
#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData
https://t.co/73DOLPmdVe
frednk @ #86 Friday, September 10th, 2021 – 8:48 am
With his outrage machine on eleventy, prepared to go all day. 😀
A nifty chart that shows daily doses per 100 people. Australia currently a smidge above the USA’s peak vaccination rate and comfortably ahead of the peak achieved by BoJo’s crew.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?country=NZL~AUS~FRA~GBR~USA
By that metric William is a concern troll.
Absolute crap and a false equivalence inside a straw man.
Cat
Actually you are doing Streisand effect.
I just said I was not saying it’s the wrong political decision.
That’s not outrage by me.
That’s partisan tribal blindness by you.
Cat
Right William was wrong in his political observation. Got it.
I moved from Sydney to Adelaide 4 years ago- sold an average terrrace, bought a modern mansion on the beach with a pool…had a million spare to retire. The beaches are long and safe (no need to swim between the flags) with no parking meters, no toll roads, restaurants are cheap and produce fresher, people arent stressed and real estate obsessed, you can go out in the city and park for free, the Airport is a breeze….I enjoyed my time in Sydney, but there comes a time in life….in the Flinders today enjoying ‘freedom’!
guytaur @ #97 Friday, September 10th, 2021 – 8:58 am
Yes he was. It was stupid, politics of envy and reverse discrimination stuff I would have expected better of from someone who has a supposedly sophisticated political take on things.
You can continue to use it as an excuse and make the same mistake if you like. Doesn’t make you right.
guytaur says:
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:50 am
FredNK
By that metric William is a concern troll.
Just not affiliated to any political party.
Stop trying to stifle political observation by using concern troll as a bullying tactic.
I found William’s post informative,if was not a sustained attack on Keneally, which is what you have offered ( concerned of cause).
From you I would not be surprised if later today you posted some irreverent twit from Adam Bandt on the very topic under discussion.