Josh Butler of the New Daily reports Barnaby Joyce has “dropped hints to an election being called in January, to be held in the first quarter of next year”, while Scott Morrison apparently told the Liberal party room the election would “come around sooner than we think”. However, it appears to have been made clear that this doesn’t mean the election will be this year, consistent with Joyce’s prognosis.
Here’s what we do know, specifically regarding the parties’ recent candidate preselection efforts:
• The West Australian reports Vince Connelly, the Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished northern Perth seat of Stirling, will challenge fellow incumbent Ian Goodenough in the neighbouring seat of Moore, rather than pursue Labor-held Cowan as previously indicated. Goodenough is noted for his successes in recruiting members of Pentecostal churches to local party branches and featured heavily in the machinations of the factional grouping known as “The Clan”, whose extensive WhatsApp discussions have now been published in full by The West Australian. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that Connelly’s move had angered unidentified “senior” Liberals, who must be privy to polling remarkably different from any available to the public, since they appear to believe he should be able to win Cowan from Labor.
• A Liberal National Party preselection held last weekend for Dawson, which will be vacated with the retirement of George Christensen, was won by Andrew Willcox, former tomato farmer and mayor of Whitsunday. Willcox won a local party ballot ahead of Chris Bonanno, a Mackay councillor and unsuccessful candidate for the state seat of Mackay last year, and Charles Pasquale, a Burdekin farmer. Meanwhile, the Courier-Mail reports Henry Pike has been endorsed by the LNP state executive to succeed Andrew Laming as candidate for Bowman, which would appear to put to rest suggestions he might be elbowed aside despite having won the local party ballot.
• Labor has finalised candidates in several of the theoretically winnable Queensland seats currently held by the Liberal National Party: Rebecca Fanning, a Queensland government health policy adviser, in Longman (margin 3.3%); Elida Faith, local president of the Queensland Council of Unions and unsuccessful candidate in 2019, in Leichhardt (4.2%); Madonna Jarrett, a director at Deloitte Australia, in Brisbane (4.9%); Mike Denton, Australian Workers Union delegate and Caltex Lytton oil refinery worker, in Petrie (8.4%); and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt, in Forde (8.6%).
• Labor also has candidates in place for the two Liberal-held seats in Tasmania, both of which it held before 2019. Bass will again be contested by Ross Hart, who held it from 2016 to 2019 and has since been the principal of a Launceston law firm, while Braddon will be contested by Chris Lynch, Burnie councillor and project co-ordinator at the St Giles Society, a charity assisting the disabled.
• Tracey Roberts, who has spent 10 years as the mayor of Wanneroo, has been endorsed as Labor’s candidate in Christian Porter’s northern Perth seat of Pearce.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Louise Miller-Frost, state chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society, is “set to receive cross-factional support” to become Labor’s candidate for the marginal Adelaide seat of Boothby, which will be vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Nicolle Flint.
Finally, as we head into what will likely be a quiet-to-silent week on the opinion poll front, a fair and balanced selection of privately conducted polling:
• Polling on the importance of climate change as an election issue and the future use of fossil fuels, conducted for the Australian Conservation Foundation by YouGov from a sample of 15,000, has been published in the form of interactive maps by the Age/Herald. These show results at electorate level, presumably from around 100 respondents each.
• The Centre for Independent Studies has published a survey it commissioned from YouGov concerning “attitudes to a post-Covid Australia”, conducted in early August from a sample of 1029. The libertarian think tank’s take on the results, which are in line with those of a similar exercise conducted by the same pollster for The Australian last week, is that “we are a nation of ‘Karens’ tut-tutting over people not following ‘the rules’”. While it took fine parsing of small sub-samples to get there, the report observes that Coalition voters were the most likely to support “government restrictions on civil liberties because of the pandemic” in New South Wales, whereas Labor voters were markedly more so in Victoria.
Starting to wonder if the Vic contact tracers are becoming overwhelmed
Tier 2 site just went up today in Sunbury but it is for 29th August.
Kenyon and Snelling weren’t the only culprits. More still dominate the SA Right, which, in turn, dominates the SA ALP.
It’s not all bad news though, there is a lot more pragmatism in the faction nowadays and a lot more members of the Right are people you would call socially progressive. A dear friend of mine who I will keep anonymous but is a rising name in the party (only a matter of time before she is in parliament) and a member of the Right faction is unapologetically pro-LGBT+ rights, anti-racism, pro-feminist and pro-choice.
Honestly, if I tip my hat to Farrell on anything, it’s his ability to keep that faction together under one roof. A more weakly managed faction like that where there is a growing rift on certain fundamental issues would certainly split by now.
Douglas and Milko,
I always identify myself as a swinging voter when a focus group company calls asking for participants. 😉
I make a distinction between rhetoric by which we hold each other to account, and rhetoric by which someone trashes a discussion with potentially adverse consequences (e.g. for health, the environment, or whatever). Both might be somewhat adversarial and both might shift political advantage, but the former is ok while the latter is not.
I think Labor usually attempts to stick to the former. I think the Coalition frequently crosses the line into the latter and cares little that it does.
*to clarify, I am not suggesting that more socially conservative members of the ALP are pro-racism. I was just listing it to emphasise her socially progressive cred.
BW
“so the issue is …’ the murderous inadequacy of Morrison, Hunt, Colbeck, Wyatt, Berejiklian and Hazzard” – i note you left Dan Andrews off that list… why?
DN – ok fair enough. The idea that what is said for political advantage is exclusively on one side is where i find some consistency blindspots in appropriating moral highground… both out there in politician land and here in this forum! The test of what will win the election and what resonates with the electorate versus not is what we are debating here… its clear some takes are, shall we say, divergent?!
C@tmomma @ #2353 Thursday, September 9th, 2021 – 5:33 pm
And I always identify myself as a Labor voter. I suppose we balance out 🙂
You can’t contact trace %100 with 300 cases. At these numbers it will be of reduced effectiveness. Just got to get the vax rate up and hopefully our vaccines don’t get stolen from now on.
Honestly, if I tip my hat to Farrell on anything, it’s his ability to keep that faction together under one roof. A more weakly managed faction like that where there is a growing rift on certain fundamental issues would certainly split by now.
I have to tip my hat to the Godfather as well. It seems he got his favoured Senator, Deb O’Neill from NSW, to top the Senate ticket here and see off Kristina Kenneally.
Not that there aren’t other SDA operatives in NSW, but he seems to pull the strings from SA.
Btw, Deb also ticks all the boxes your friend does. Even though she used to teach at a Catholic School. 🙂
EF
I didn’t say it’s exclusively on one side, nor is “seeking political advantage” what I’m specifically condemning. Read my comment a few before this one.
As a Sydneysider (so at the epicentre of the entire cosmos, didn’t you know), I don’t begrudge NSW getting any of the extra pfizer doses (disclaimer – I’m double vaccinated with AstraZeneca). What i get the shits about is the current preoccupation with vaccine shaming ‘under performing’ states.
The reality is that politicians – most particularly ScoMo and Hunt – created an atmosphere of AstraZeneca hesitancy overnight when they mishandled the ATARGI advice. Whilst the liberal party and their media proxies like to target Dr Janette Young, her comments were small beer in the scheme of things (and in fact were made in the context of Queensland successfully suppressing covid, and on the assumption that barrels and barrels of the pfizer were coming ‘just around the corner’ because we were ‘at the head of the queue’ according to all of ScoMo’s announcements).
Why should the good folk of Queensland, WA, SA and Tasmania be panicked into taking the AstraZeneca given what they have been told this far and in circumstances where they are living covid free? After all, NOW it seems to be a true fact that the Pfizer is arriving by the millions over the next 8 weeks or so? The state governments seem to be doing a good job keeping up with the vaccination demand and THAT demand is ticking over nicely.
The whole bun fight is an anti-labor campaign, and I don’t think we should be distracted simply because NSW has received more of the Pfizer over the past two months and that a lot of 18-39 yo in western Sydney have decided to take up AstraZeneca because they hate being locked down and effectively unemployed and increasingly desperate.
Conservative/progressive labels can be misleading because depending on the issue most people can be both. A conservative can be left lending if they believe in unionism and a progressive can be right lending if they support private education.
Looks like the more useless you are the more you get paid….
Ben Butler Ben Butler
James Packer’s Crown Resorts paid more than $9.67m to executives who left the company during a year of inquiries that have put its lucrative casino licences at risk.
The group’s annual report, released on Thursday, shows that the extra termination payments swelled total executive pay from $14m in 2020 to $23m in 2021, even as the company plunged from a profit of $82m to a loss of $261m.
Former CEO Ken Barton trousered a termination payment of $3.35m, former head of Australian resorts Barry Felstead got $3.2m, and Todd Nisbet, who was executive vice president, strategy and development, got a little over $3.1m.
All the talk about 2019 election here ignoring the fact that Shorten was actively disliked, came across on TV as insincere, Labor had a huge tax and spend policy suite and incredibly extensive number of promises that just made people think ALP is full of shit.
We were all caught up at the time but looking back you can see it was way too risky.
Cat
Wat is referring to those former SA Labor bible-thumpers you were referring too. Wat is right; I have complained here in the past that some from the SDA faction in SA Labor barely seemed to care about Labor values or workers generally. For that I was at times derided for not being a team player then but felt a strong sense of “I told you so” when Jack Snelling walked out to restart Fundies First.
Wat
Sorry I typed a reply to your earlier post before seeing your most recent. I agree with you on SA Labor. Imperfect but it still has potential.
I still stand by my other comments on NSW Labor being the parties achilles heal nationally.
Until such time as Morrison comes out with when he will open international borders, all the huffing and puffing about States such as WA and Qld should do vis-a-vis internal Oz borders is just one more example of Morrison’s insincerity….
Just heard a snippet from him banging on about people in WA “doing the right thing” by getting their jabs. No talk these days about “Gold Standards”, “Coming our from under the doona/out of the cave” and living in a “hermit kingdom” and similar crap from not long ago…..
That 4 in 10 people still vote for his party is still a mystery to me………He is a total and utter phoney……..
DN – i’m not sure we disagree in principle. Perhaps its application though!
Comes from a view on what we think resonates and how it resonates (directional versus literal)… that’s life in the melting pot of society.
someone was asking about ideological breakdown in australia… made me think of the 35 points that Gladys has lost in terms of approval for her handling of covid since June. I would be interested to get a sense of what component comes from those who think she was insufficiently reactive and didnt go hard enough, versus what component comes from those who think she is a stalinist lockdown control freak. Without passing judgement, i wouldnt be surprised if the split were of closer orders of magnitude than we here would like to believe!
michael
US, easy win. Not using SfM and Gladys’ ‘fake’ % .
Injections per 100 people
Aus 83.8
US 113.1
% Population Fully vaccinated.
US 53.3
Aus 31.5
.
For Trans Tasman rivalry’s sake 🙂
% Population ‘At least one dose’
NZ 54.1
Aus 52.3
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1
‘Expat Follower says:
Thursday, September 9, 2021 at 5:36 pm
BW
“so the issue is …’ the murderous inadequacy of Morrison, Hunt, Colbeck, Wyatt, Berejiklian and Hazzard”’
Expat Follower says:
Thursday, September 9, 2021 at 5:47 pm
… made me think of the 35 points that Gladys has lost in terms of approval for her handling of covid since June.
…’
______________________________
She should resign.
Just been having a look at the “freedoms” NSW people will have after they get to 70% – they look pretty similar to the harshest restrictions we have had in Queensland apart from the fairly brief periods we have been locked down. They are far more restrictive than what we have now in Queensland. An most of the freedoms are only available if you’re vaccinated.
And Morrison thinks State Premiers should “hold their nerve” as we go into “living with Covid”! If it means we are going to have to move into some regime like NSW is introducing I don’t think so!
The bottom line is that we can’t “live with Covid” unless numbers of cases are driven to a very low level so that the restrictions can be largely removed.
I could be cynical and remark that improved “freedoms” for the ordinary person are much less important in the NSW rules that the ability for the LNP’s business support base to crank up their profit making activities.
Finally, given the results of “opening up” elsewhere in the world when vaccination targets are achieved, it’s going to be a roller coaster ride anyway. We need to stay the course until the case numbers are brought down to the level that can be dealt with by TTIQ
“ That 4 in 10 people still vote for his party is still a mystery to me………He is a total and utter phoney…”
try standing in front of mirror and repetitively chanting ‘fuck you, its all about ME’ over and over again (perhaps to Rage against the Machine to fully pump you up) until the endorphins kick in and then thinking of all your aspirational goodies – tax dodges like negative gearing, cash backs for tax that other people paid, the promise of upper middle class tax cuts (even if you are objectively speaking in the lower half – smell that ‘aspiration’), your beloved Ute and jet ski and then mix in the fear that ‘woke lefties’ could take it all away: presto – behold your 4 in 10 liberal voter.
A pissant country occupied by pissants. Thanks John Howard.
C@t – I believe the late great Charlie Watts described a day of stardom as one hour of fun and 23 hours of sitting around. So you are in good company!
“ She should resign.”
Someone should cuff her and take her way in a paddy wagon. Not generalissimo Mick’s mob, obviously. But some more respectable law enforcement outfit.
Binchook Plague Ambassador number XV . This one arrives in Brisvegas. Primed and ready to spread.
.
A NSW truck driver has tested positive to Covid-19 after visiting two suburbs in Brisbane on 5 and 6 September.
The driver was infectious in the community in Archerfield and Mount Gravatt, in southern Brisbane, on Sunday and Monday and tested positive in NSW after returning from Queensland.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/sep/09/australia-covid-updates-coronavirus-nsw-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison?page=with:block-6139ba088f08ef08a327b089#block-6139ba088f08ef08a327b089
Everyone makes little mistakes.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/09/09/forgetting-to-buy-pandemic-6-other-mistakes/
I think NSW’s plan is sensible. I also think Victoria will follow in a similar manner. I do think it is dumb for Gladys to label it as freedom day though.
Socrates
Oh of course. I didn’t mean to sound like I was trying to throw the baby away with the bathwater. SA Labor still has a lot of good policies and talented people in it. For all its faults, state Labor governments actually build meaningful infrastructure (not just cut ribbons on existing projects) and are pro-active in trying to turn things around economically and trying to shake-off the “sleepy town” vibe.
@QuentinDemptster tweets
@NRMA chairman Tim Trumper blasts OPEC gouge limiting oil production during pandemic: Australian families paying almost record-level petrol prices. Mr Trumper welcomes EU move to ban petrol cars by 2035 = new era of EVs -cars/vans/trucks – recharged by Aussie renewables.
Scott Morrison shows he does not learn and will never learn from his mistakes
Prime Minister Scott Morrison commends Gladys Berejiklian on her plan to ease restrictions.
could it turn out to be
the same way he commend Gladys Berejiklian for not going into a full lockdown
Gorks
A problem is, that like a good Sydney property developer spiv, she has been promising this ‘build’ .
But the buyers will receive.
“ She should resign.”
“Someone should cuff her and take her way in a paddy wagon. ”
and yet we all know if an election were held in NSW tomorrow, she would be returned as premier no probs
There must be more than justifiable AZ hesitancy (if that is what the argument is) behind Qld’s vaccination rate.
It is drifting away further behind WA each days and its second doses exceed its first doses on most days.
Thats funny poroti. Every Labor member for months has been going on about the full vacc percentages on twitter and now your using 1st dose rates with NZ. Guess what Aust still leads NZ on full vacc rates.
As for the US the race has not finished yet, who would you put your money on in two months to finish on top.
Shellbell
They’re rugged individualists up there.
Channel 7 news opens with Dan under pressure for plans after Gladys.
Then Crozier carrying on that people being moved to hotel quarantine are ‘at risk’. Stupid woman they are already positive
DN
Will be interesting to see what the final range is between the most and least vaxxed jurisdiction.
ACT > 15% Qld?
Shellbell @ #2383 Thursday, September 9th, 2021 – 6:11 pm
Oh STFU. The Feds don’t even tell Qld when they have Pfizer doses “earmarked” for Qld and then blame Qld for not ordering them.
The Premier and CHO have been on the Vaccinate! Vaccinate! Vaccinate! trail for weeks and the state is opening new mass vaccination clinics seemingly every couple of days.
The big black box is how many the Feds are feeding (or not feeding) into the GP network. They don’t even give the State Government visibility as to what is happening in that channel. As the Premier says the Feds are responsible for 70% of the job (through GPS, Pharmacies etc) and the State for 30%.
Add to that the fact that Queensland is the most decentralised state so getting vaccines into every community is considerably more difficult.
And spare us the NSW superiority complex when it comes to Qld when Qld has been far better so far in managing the pandemic.
You can always rely on NSW Labor …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-09/cph-kristina-keneally-safe-seat-switch-sparks-anger/100448790
Expat Follower @ #2314 Thursday, September 9th, 2021 – 5:05 pm
Vaccination has nothing to do with current cases, except that it lessens their number some months into the future. There is no logical basis whatsoever for misallocating scarce vaccine doses based on the number of current cases, rather than on overall population. The current cases themselves are providing immunity far faster than a vaccine to those affected individuals. Gladys intends to use the misallocation that ScoMo has presented her with, to justify her stupid decision to ‘open up’ prematurely, based on a ridiculous 56% vaccination level, which she deliberately misstates as 70%.
You accusing me of being brain dead is seriously funny. I will back my brain against your sloppy, irrational, illogical, rambling, biased excuse for a thinking capability any time. Today I have been tidying up the reports and data entry screens of a generalised simulated annealing model of production (of multiple SKUs at multiple sites) and delivery logistics that I have personally built for one of Australia’s major bread manufacturers. It kept my brain alive.
Have a go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing
Wat
Yes SA Labor in office generally did a good job on infrastructure; very good on renewable power (arguably world leading when the big battery went in).
I have some frustrations in my field (transport). There is still a whole generation of senior politicians and bureaucrats who honestly believe projects like the North South corridor benefit the economy. They do not. They are a gift to big construction companies. Some cities are demolishing such projects with land use benefits. Sigh.
Abbott stalled the rail modernisation before many benefits were realised and Marshall has stalled the tram expansion. Not Labor’s fault, but we are a long way from the public transport system a city this size would have in most OECD countries. Once there is a carbon price (even if imposed from externally) North South Corridor (started by Rann) will be seen to be a terrible waste of money.
michael
Current fully vax -Australia 31.5%- NZ 27.9% . They have gone berserk over the last couple or three weeks hence the 54 to 52 lead they have in the “at least 1 dose”. So the gap will soon close .. Could be a tight finish in the race that isn’t a race 🙂 .
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=aus&areas=nzl&cumulative=1&doses=first&populationAdjusted=0#:~:text=New-,Zealand,-82.0
Poroti as P1 would say, Adern should be embarrassed as she like Scomo is now hunting around for vaccine swaps to ease a shortfall of Pfizer in Sept.
There will be lots of factors that contribute to varying vaccination rates between regions. Just look the entire world over. Our state governments can’t just grab people off the street and stick a needle in them. Can they? They have to encourage, cajole, bribe, whatever. That’s one of the reasons the federal government should put the games aside and stick to supporting everyone’s vaccination efforts. They should be working with the states to get the friction, between each individual and vaccination, to zero.
‘Shellbell says:
Thursday, September 9, 2021 at 6:24 pm
DN
Will be interesting to see what the final range is between the most and least vaxxed jurisdiction.
ACT > 15% Qld?’
_____________________
The ACT’s rugged individualists weren’t conned by ratbags. They rolled up their sleeves and got jabbed.
Michael at 6.33pm
No, Ahern shouldn’t be embarrassed ‘like Scomo,’ as she never promised NZers they’d be at the ‘front of the queue.’
Boerwar
Not sure why it’s a twaddle question. I’m simply being cautious.
I’m not sure how we can draw any conclusion about the correctness or otherwise of the polls without knowing what changes have been made since last time out. My understanding is that most of the polls, bar YouGov, haven’t made any changes.
$16 billion dollars = the cost of Berejiklian and Morrison buggering up the NSW outbreak.
“Today I have been tidying up the reports and data entry screens of a generalised simulated annealing model of production (of multiple SKUs at multiple sites) and delivery logistics that I have personally built for one of Australia’s major bread manufacturers”
sheesh that’s some insecurity right there. glad you making productive use of yo mama’s basement
michael @ #2393 Thursday, September 9th, 2021 – 6:33 pm
Vaccine swaps are a good idea. If you remember, I suggested them some months ago.
But using them to make up for not ordering enough vaccine in the first place is something else again.