Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll finds the Coalition lagging still further behind Labor on voting intention, despite a more mixed picture on leadership ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records Labor’s two-party preferred lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, with the Coalition taking a three-point tumble on the primary vote to 36%, Labor up a point to 40%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%. Despite this, Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and down two on disapproval to 47%, and has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 49-36 to 50-34. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,192 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Weekly cumulative cases (Mon to Sun) of Covid since 14th of June in the three largest states:
    ……………………………………….NSW (Coalition)…VIC (ALP)………QLD (ALP)
    14-20 June: ……….…………. 29 ……………………… 26…………………15……..Note similar starting N. of infections
    21-27 June: ……………………114 ……………………… 21………………….18
    28 June – 4 July: ……………186……………………….9…………………..33
    5-11 July: …………………… 311………………………….8…………………..22
    12-18 July: …………………….699………………………63………………….16
    19-25 July: …………………….846………………………117…………………16
    26 July – 1 August: …………1361……………………46…………………..39
    2-8 August: …………………..1773………………………62……………….109
    9-15 August: …………………2599……………………134…………………37
    16-22 August: ……………….4541……………………310…………………..9
    23-29 August: ……………….6654………………….481…………………..3

    Plus first two days of the current week:
    30 August……………………1294…………………………73…………………2
    31 August……………………1164………………………… 76…………………0

    TOTAL:…………………..21,571………………………….1,426……………..319

    Total n. of deaths by Coronavirus in NSW during the current third wave: 96

    The so-called “gold standard” response of the Liberal Gladys in NSW was supposed to save ScuMo and his Gang at the federal election, in spite of expected losses in WA, Qld and Vic…. Now ScuMo is going down in NSW too…. and he knows that a second recession in a row is coming, a ScuMo, Liberal party recession….

    Conclusion: The Coalition are going to lose the coming federal election, the question is, by how much?…. The more they delay, the larger the margin….

  2. GG

    I think the basic premise of the program is wrong. Women aren’t angry. They’re just exhausted. From the small exerpts I’ve seen there’s nothing new there. The discussion on The Drum was more relevant.

  3. Citizen

    Same lizzie. It’s the fault of the phone that refuses to begin a new sentence without a capital. It takes too long to correct it each time

  4. Lizzie

    I believe cud chewer was responding to the observation about Dan Andrews

    [That he has abandoned the state’s COVID-zero strategy, as he embraces a soft lockdown plan to “modestly” and “cautiously” ease restrictions provided COVID-19 infections can be kept below a low case threshold]

  5. Alpo @ #1103 Tuesday, August 31st, 2021 – 7:56 pm

    Total n. of deaths by Coronavirus in NSW during the current third wave: 96

    The so-called “gold standard” response of the Liberal Gladys in NSW was supposed to save ScuMo and his Gang at the federal election, in spite of expected losses in WA, Qld and Vic…. Now ScuMo is going down in NSW too…. and he knows that a second recession in a row is coming, a ScuMo, Liberal party recession….

    Conclusion: The Coalition are going to lose the coming federal election, the question is, by how much?…. The more they delay, the larger the margin….

    That’s why I’ve been predicting they will go early rather than late. At least save some of the furniture while hoping for another miracle.

  6. As devastating as that is to hear Henry, i’m grateful you are self-important enough to announce that instead of just doing it!

  7. Sceptic
    Boosters are controversial but it’s pretty clear the immunosuppressed need them which is already happening in the US. While immunity drops, more people are getting Covid albeit relatively minor in most cases. That still could mean a large number of new long Covid cases. The data from Israel still needs to be peer reviewed and the FDA is evidently going to make a decision in September. Israel and Germany are gearing up for boosters.
    Of course against boosters is diverting vaccines from the third world for a small benefit in the first world.

  8. I watched Victorian presser and I have to say it was quite pragmatic and mature. Looks like we will be reaching a high vaccination coverage by November. We can probably get to zero but it will take weeks, perhaps months. It is increasingly looking like harsh measures will start to have small benefits and might be time to ease up a bit during this transitionary period.

    Also quite clear it is only a matter of time another incursion from NSW happens so we are never getting to a summer/autumn 2021 levels of months long zero cases.

    Whatever it is in the announcements tomorrow it will be baby steps towards an endemic disease management.

  9. That ER poll was dismal for the “live with Covid” cheer squad.
    Remember we were asking a week ago how many Covid deaths were acceptable? Only 3% said more than 5000 deaths a year was acceptable.
    We will reach that easily if we just rely on vaccination.

  10. Lizzie,

    Agree.

    But, women have always been exhausted.

    Before they invented labour saving devices like fridges and washing machines, women were always exhausted.

    Which then created the opportunity for women to be exploited by the need to make the HP payments.

    Which then created to incentive for Women to have careers.

    In the end, your toys own you.

    Women now get exploited by the concept of aspiration.

    Blokes just carry on as before.

  11. Given Palmer’s apparently unlimited funds, I fear that we are facing a massive assault by the Kelly/Palmer combination every day from now until the election.

    It really is unfair how money can buy influence.

  12. SfM’s speeches sound more & more like a Hillsong preachers delivery every day….. he’s obviously never sat up the back of a school church service to hear how the young adults take the piss..

  13. citizen,

    Palmer’s current meme is that “It’s him that won victory for the Libs in 2019”.

    When the swing is on, the swing is on.

    The swing wasn’t on in 2019.

  14. ” Low marks for that, scaled down further for a purported educator lol”

    So you change the metric depending on who you measuring?

    Explains a lot, EP!

  15. I actually watched the entire Palmer ad, 30+ seconds of uptempo music and a bloviating Craig Kelly. A few key points:

    – they intend standing in every lower house seat
    – and in each Senate contest
    – a close listening have them switching ‘you can’t trust Liberal, Labor and the Greens’ with ‘You can’t trust Labor and Liberal any more…’
    – freedom, no more lockdowns

  16. Labor could do a lot worse than exposing some of Craig Kelly’s worse utterances, and his dodgy mates Frank Zumba and Scotty the Bully.

  17. Sceptic at 8:28 pm

    SfM’s speeches sound more & more like a Hillsong preachers delivery every day

    Been thinking the same thing for the last week or so. Must be under a bit of pressure to fall back on his ‘spiritual comfort food’ . How sad 🙂

  18. where there’s HOPE!

    Aug. 27, 2018
    Scott Morrison Is a New Kind of Australian Prime Minister: An Evangelical Christian…
    “I’m incredibly hopeful — hopeful for the future of our generation,” said Alison Bonhomme, a senior pastor at Horizon Church, reflecting on the political tumult that led Scott Morrison to become the country’s leader.
    A burst of applause followed….
    For a decade, Mr. Morrison and his family have been part of the congregation at Horizon Church in a middle-class southern suburb of Sydney

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/27/world/australia/scott-morrison-evangelical-prime-minister.html

    Time to take the p*ss

  19. Christ, I’ve already seen that Craig Kelly ad twice on YouTube in the last half hour. I’m starting to hope Scomo calls the election soon simply we don’t have to be inundated with this crap for too long.

    That said, talk about burying the lede. The vast majority of viewers will have already clicked “Skip ad” by the time Kelly’s finished introducing himself.

  20. The Guardian ..

    Western and south-west Sydney continue to generate the majority of NSW’s new Covid cases, but other regions of Sydney are at risk of being classified an LGA of concern and placed under tighter restrictions including a curfew if local cases worsen.

    There were 231 new cases in Canterbury-Bankstown, 225 in Cumberland, 152 in Blacktown, 81 in Liverpool and 69 in Fairfield – with these LGAs recording the highest transmission.

    However, new cases were higher in the Inner West LGA, which recorded 17 new cases, than in Burwood, which is classified an LGA of concern but reported three new cases on Monday after a run of several days with zero new cases. Inner West is not currently an LGA of concern.

    There were also 17 new cases in Camden, seven cases in Randwick, and four in Ryde. These areas are not currently considered LGAs of concern.

    Despite cases flaring up, the NSW chief health officer, Kerry Chant, when asked last week why Burwood remained an LGA of concern despite recording a run of zero case days, said “one day is not a trend”.

  21. Confessions @ #1084 Tuesday, August 31st, 2021 – 7:14 pm

    I saw a Craig Kelly UAP advert on commercial TV a little while ago and now Clive is out and about again.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-31/fact-check-clive-palmer-vaccine-passports-breach-constitution/100407330

    Perhaps there will be an election later this year after all.

    Ditto. Craig Kelly, little puppet with a wooden heart of Clive Palmer, has just been carpet bombing ‘The Block’ with his big ugly mug.

    Lock in a November election. There’s no way that Clive Palmer would keep these ads up all the way to March next year.

  22. Asha @ #1126 Tuesday, August 31st, 2021 – 8:51 pm

    Christ, I’ve already seen that Craig Kelly ad twice on YouTube in the last half hour. I’m starting to hope Scomo calls the election soon simply we don’t have to be inundated with this crap for too long.

    That said, talk about burying the lede. The vast majority of viewers will have already clicked “Skip ad” by the time Kelly’s finished introducing himself.

    I can’t do that. All I can do is mute the bastard. I refuse to pay for cable or give one red cent to Murdoch! 😆

  23. Asha:

    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 4:11 pm

    [‘While I don’t remotely agree with the point these protesters are making, I have no issue with them demonstrating in Brisbane, at least. We have no cases right now and are not in lockdown.’]

    I haven’t seen footage of the Brisbane protest but were they wearing masks; if not, were they able to stay 1.5 metres away from other people who are not in their household? If not, they are in breach of the restrictions in place for impacted areas (which includes Brisbane), effective from 4 pm, 27 August to 4 pm, 10 September.

    _________________________________

    I received a text from Kelly this afternoon. I replied:

    ‘I may take notice of your message if you could confirm that you’ve repaid the $4m you owe creditors and employees following the winding up of your family furniture business, which you denied you were a director even though you signed affidavits confirming you were…

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2012/09/10/court-documents-conflict-with-liberal-mp-statement-on-company/

    _________________________________

    Had a call from my niece tonight saying a snake was trying to eat her cat. I was out having tea but raced around to her place, as did her mother, to find a standoff between her cat & a two-metre python that had been trying to catch her neighbour’s chooks earlier in the day. For a python, it was quite aggressive. Long story short, I grabbed its neck, put it in a bin, and released it at the Hinze Dam. The cat has gone missing but will probably return tomorrow. The upshot was that in her haste, my sister plowed through the electrically powered gate, that I had started to close, not realising she was right behind me. New gate to be ordered tomorrow.

  24. Western and south-west Sydney continue to generate the majority of NSW’s new Covid cases, but other regions of Sydney are at risk of being classified an LGA of concern and placed under tighter restrictions including a curfew if local cases worsen.

    This is the disconnect in the rhetoric that I can’t understand. If Gladys Berejiklian and Scott Morrison want to be all, ‘screw it! let’s party!’ and throw open the doors to ‘Freedumb!’, why do they keep putting more areas under curfew? I know it’s the right thing to do but it’s the wrong this to do if you are planning an election in November. You want to give people an adrenaline, serotonin and dopamine, triple whammy rush as they regain their ‘freedom’, so that they will go out and vote for you. Wouldn’t the more politically advantageous position to take be one of not putting any other areas under curfew? Unless they are solidly Labor voting areas…like the Inner West. 😐

  25. Assuming Palmer was irrelevant was a mistake in 2019. Kelly is a front for Palmer, so some counter-action is likely required.

    Of course. But it’s still important to be proportionate with our attention and not get too hung-up, ignoring the main opponent.

  26. Christ, I’ve already seen that Craig Kelly ad twice on YouTube in the last half hour. I’m starting to hope Scomo calls the election soon simply we don’t have to be inundated with this crap for too long.

    That said, talk about burying the lede. The vast majority of viewers will have already clicked “Skip ad” by the time Kelly’s finished introducing himself.

    I’m happy I shell out for YouTube Premium, so I don’t have to see any of that rubbish.

  27. GG

    UAP Will do what they did last time. Preferences to the fibs.

    If Palmer does what he did last time, then Labor should have a counter ready.

    I suggest: ridicule, reveal the connection with Liberals, point out that Palmer never wins seats, label him a liar, force Morrison to disown him, possibly even court action in that he is obviously a beard for the Libs.

    If Labor can’t do even that, they don’t deserve to win.

  28. poroti:

    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 9:32 pm

    Mavis

    [‘Ah, the Russ. A blast from the past. Who can forget his ‘centrefold’ shot ?’]

    A life of overindulgence to be sure, partly funded by the “White Shoe Brigade.” Had he not suffered terminal cancer, he would’ve been tried. I’ve lived near the Hinze Dam for about twenty years and only recently read a plaque recording that the dam that bears his name was in fact dedicated to his grandparents, Carl and Johanna Hinze. And it’s somewhat ironic that nearby residents don’t have the luxury of its water, either drawing water from the Nerang River, rainwater, or having it delivered.

  29. Wat,

    I’m from that school of thought that demands you get on board or fuck off.

    Labor does not need prevaricators, dissemblers or other handers at this time.

    You are either in or out.

    Make your choice.

  30. I can’t do that. All I can do is mute the bastard. I refuse to pay for cable or give one red cent to Murdoch!

    You know, I always forget that free-to-air and cable television are still things people actually watch.

  31. Victoria, lizzie, Gorks

    I don’t see how a “soft” lockdown in Victoria can result in anything other than what’s been happening in NSW. Its still far too early. Victoria is already perched squarely on top of the R=1.0 knife edge.

    If Andrews means keeping the present lockdown until October then maybe we can argue the toss.

    I heard Andrews talk about 80 percent earlier today. 80 percent (of adults) just isn’t going to stop what has happened in the UK. A genuine 80 percent (of the population) might.

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