Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll finds the Coalition lagging still further behind Labor on voting intention, despite a more mixed picture on leadership ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records Labor’s two-party preferred lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, with the Coalition taking a three-point tumble on the primary vote to 36%, Labor up a point to 40%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%. Despite this, Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and down two on disapproval to 47%, and has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 49-36 to 50-34. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,192 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaur, last year there were plenty of times when you called me names and cherry-picked my posts (if not outright made shit up about what I did or didn’t say) while you were making the argument that Biden was an uninspiring corporate neoliberal who was definitely going to lose to Trump. I think you’ll live.

  2. Some election timing speculation – early March is firming as the most likely. If Expat’s theory is correct – that Morrison will time the election for the worst of the current outbreak being over, vaccination being over 70% of adults, restrictions starting to lift, but any blow-out of cases not yet apparent – then late summer appears to be the sweet spot. Hopefully voters will prove to have have longer memories than they have demonstrated in the past.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/31/federal-election-scott-morrison/

  3. As per cut snake’s excellent post, above:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/31/wilcannia-covid-crisis-governments-sidestep-responsibility-as-response-to-outbreak-labelled-a-joke

    Once again we have the NSW Government blaming the Morrison Government. This is after a bit of the old racist bashing by certain perps.
    Perhaps expat follower could advise whether there are enough buses to keep Berejiklian, Hazzard, Morrison, Hunt, Colbeck and Wyatt suitably occupied?

  4. It would appear the US has left Afghanistan with one of their customary drone fcuk ups.
    .
    .
    Kabul, Afghanistan – The Ahmadi and Nejrabi families had packed all their belongings, waiting for word to be escorted to Kabul airport and eventually moved to the United States, but the message Washington sent instead was a rocket into their homes in a Kabul neighbourhood……………………….Aimal Ahmadi, whose nieces and nephews were among those killed, is still in disbelief. Like others in the neighbourhood, he is incensed that his brother and nephews and nieces were never recognised in the media as what they were, a family going about their life.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/30/an-afghan-family-killed-by-a-us-airstrike-in-kabul

  5. ‘Hugoaugogo says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    Some election timing speculation…’
    _________________
    Morrison will time the election in the best interests of the nation.

  6. Henry says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 12:59 pm
    “500,000 doses of hope”.
    Arfur Fukksake!
    ………………………………….

    Does that mean the does of Pfizer we give up in December are 500,000 doses of hopelessness?

  7. “ You can manage a pandemic of the unvaccinated when the unvaccinated is a small group”
    By the end of the year, lots of Pfizer recipients will be 9 months post vaccination and not have that much immunity. Can’t see boosters being given so the pool of infectable people will start growing again. And that assuming no vaccine evading variants emerge.

  8. Windhover says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    Henry says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 12:59 pm
    “500,000 doses of hope”.
    Arfur Fukksake!
    ………………………………….

    Does that mean the does of Pfizer we give up in December are 500,000 doses of hopelessness?
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Doses of Despair.

  9. I’m sorry, but the idea that Albo should be appearing in formal COVID pressers with Anna, Dan or Mark is just a horrible, horrible idea. He’s done events with Anna P, but primarily, he’s done what an OL should be doing, which is increasing the profile of local candidates.

    Premiers need their residents to know they’re NOT politicising their responses. It undermines them as leaders during a time of crisis and undermines Labor’s criticism of the Government politicising ITS response to state measures.

    There will be time for formal unity, but in the midst of crises, now ain’t it.

  10. boerwar
    ‘toe the line’ not ‘tow’, derived as understood in my UK darts playing mediaeval pub, where throwing a dart with a foot over the ‘oche’ was an offense , with requests to “toe the line”. Hard to enforce (I was captain of the my team’) as closing time and drinking and aggro accelerated.

  11. aim

    Expat Follower is just so transparent. Everything they say is designed to fuel doubt in the possibility of Labor winning. I’d say it probably represents a distillation of what is being discussed in government circles as an election strategy. They obviously have good connections.

    I wouldn’t comment on anything specific that they say becasue it will probably be fed back to be used to fine tune the strategy. Best not to help your opponents improve their game.

    I agree with your estimation. Griff has also pointed out that Expat Follower has made many posts saying that “Albo needs to tell us now what his COVID opening up policy is for the election to be held in March next year”.

    This is a very black and white statement. No one can know what a government’s COVID policy should be in two weeks time, let alone now.

  12. Dr Vyom Sharma
    @drvyom
    ·
    26m
    Getting word from healthcare workers in a few Victorian hospitals – leadership are paying attention to what’s happening in NSW, and gearing up early. Unlike 2nd wave, this time systems have respect for airborne transmission and fast rising vaccination coverage in community.
    ***
    We are going to get a significant rise of cases in Victoria – sooner or later.
    You can call it an outbreak, an exit wave, whatever you want.
    The immediate concern will be cases severe enough to require hospitalisation.
    This will overwhelmingly affect unvaccinated adults.
    ***
    Yes, long covid. Yes, children.
    No I’m not forgetting.

    This is why I used the qualifiers ‘immediate’ and ‘overwhelmingly’.
    But the above still holds true.

  13. Diogenes
    By the end of the year, lots of Pfizer recipients will be 9 months post vaccination and not have that much immunity.

    You say that but again the CDC is not advising it is required.

    Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against severe disease has not dropped much, CDC says… Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against severe disease has not dropped much, CDC says

  14. Diog

    Thank you for mentioning the elephant in the room that seems to be being missed in this open up and live with the virus push; boosters. As someone who received my second dose of Pfizer in May, on the US advice I should be getting a booster around January or February next year. Same goes for my wife, and we are both in higher than average risk groups. I have absolutely no confidence that this government is going to be able to organise a smooth rollout of booster shots. There is also evidence that Astrazenica, too, has falling immunity over time, albeit perhaps a bit slower than Pfizer. Yet, we have this big push from the federal and NSW governments that we must learn to live with the virus, all according it seems to a political timetable. This could end very badly.

  15. Ch 10 news had video of various NSW anti lockdown/vaxx protests today. The people they showed seemed to fall into groups:

    – people genuinely facing issues under lockdown;

    – the QAnon/cospiracy types.

    Quite obviously the organisers have been able to play on the fears and emotions of many people who are genuinely upset at lockdown and/or are frightened of being vaccinated. And I am sure that many people spreading conspiracy theories around Covid are sincere believers.

    However the real villains here are not the little people but the rich and powerful enablers and those in government who refuse to condemn them. A PM on the political skids needs the political and financial support of media barons and mega rich egotists more than ever.

  16. there will be a time for formal unity, but in the midst of crises, now aint it… that is an original attitude that im sure worked well at times of war or natural disaster etc.

    and it undermines them as leaders during a time of crisis to show solidarity with them and act as a convenor of a nationwide opposed approach to the federal government’s policy preference

    ok, we are clearly motivated and inspired by quite different things. Maybe more swing voters in those states are inclined as per those kind of sentiments… i’m happy to bet not though

  17. Someone this morning posted a comment about WA’s Parker and Bartlett as to their political ‘bias’ . Well some sad news today for the pair and their flavor of shoutback radio.
    .
    .
    Radio listeners tune out of 6PR as flagship programs hosted by Liam Bartlett & Gareth Parker plunge in ratings.

    The Nine-owned talkback station haemorrhaged its listenership across almost all programs across the day, slumping overall 1.1 points.

    Listeners continue to ditch Gareth Parker’s breakfast program, with the third consecutive ratings loss, sliding 1.2 points to land him on single digits and fifth position with a 9.2 per cent audience share.

    Mornings host Liam Bartlett suffered a disastrous drop of 2.5 points from an 11.1 to an 8.6 per cent share and afternoons host Steve Mills also fell 1.9 points.
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/entertainment/radio-listeners-tune-out-of-6pr-as-flagship-programs-hosted-by-liam-bartlett-gareth-parker-plunge-in-ratings-ng-b881988252z

  18. Expat Follower,
    Labor have been running the country from Opposition during the pandemic and Scott Morrison is the show pony they have been leading around by the nose. And no matter how many 1000s of words you may continue to churn out trying to say otherwise, the truth which you can never seem to acknowledge is staring you in the face.

    Sure, if you want a show pony as your leader, then vote for Scott Morrison, but if you want someone who doesn’t have to buy a clue via focus groups, then Albanese is your man. Not a show pony, more like a reliable draught horse.

  19. D&M

    I agree with your estimation. Griff has also pointed out that Expat Follower has made many posts saying that “Albo needs to tell us now what his COVID opening up policy is for the election to be held in March next year”.

    This is a very black and white statement. No one can know what a government’s COVID policy should be in two weeks time, let alone now.
    ___________________________________

    The ‘strength’ of Morrison and his government is to say, at any given time, that the feelpolicy they are pushing has always been the same. It’s an ‘ability’ that can only work for people with no conscience whatsoever. I don’t see anyone in Labor being able to do the same and get away with it.

    Labor’s only hope is to continue doing what it is doing. I can’t see it winning any other way. Certainly not by making itself a target for snipers in front and behind desperately waiting for it to lift it’s collective head (or at least Albanese’s) above the trench to be shot at.

  20. Expat follower

    Are you physically in Australia or, as your name implies, somewhere else? And, if so, where?

    I’m curious to understand the perspective from which you are commenting.

  21. NSW could break the % mould and just set a challenge to get 1 million more first dose vaccines as soon as possible. That will make it 5.5 million which is about 84% of eligible. That would be a reasonable outcome ait also informs the level of 2nd dose vaccination and that which will be achievable within the 12-15 age group which is only going to be about 400,000 kids in New South Wales ie. a few days work.

    Then it needs to double Indigenous first dose vaccination rates.

  22. Douglas and Milko @ #1014 Tuesday, August 31st, 2021 – 5:25 pm

    aim

    Expat Follower is just so transparent. Everything they say is designed to fuel doubt in the possibility of Labor winning. I’d say it probably represents a distillation of what is being discussed in government circles as an election strategy. They obviously have good connections.

    I wouldn’t comment on anything specific that they say becasue it will probably be fed back to be used to fine tune the strategy. Best not to help your opponents improve their game.

    I agree with your estimation. Griff has also pointed out that Expat Follower has made many posts saying that “Albo needs to tell us now what his COVID opening up policy is for the election to be held in March next year”.

    This is a very black and white statement. No one can know what a government’s COVID policy should be in two weeks time, let alone now.

    And Albanese will continue to ignore baiting and just provide sensible suggestions, which Morrison will eventually adopt.

  23. Shellbell @ #1026 Tuesday, August 31st, 2021 – 5:41 pm

    NSW could break the % mould and just set a challenge to get 1 million more first dose vaccines as soon as possible. That will make it 5.5 million which is about 84% of eligible. That would be a reasonable outcome ait also informs the level of 2nd dose vaccination and that which will be achievable within the 12-15 age group which is only going to be about 400,000 kids in New South Wales ie. a few days work.

    Then it needs to double Indigenous first dose vaccination rates.

    As it continues to take the majority of other states’ vaccines for itself. Great. It’s easy to win when you hold all the cards.

  24. jt1983,

    @D&M – but also let’s not get into the habit of assuming any “discussion” here is in any way influential, lol.

    No, of course it is not 😀

    But that does not mean that posters who are trying to wangle information from “US”, assuming (very wrongly) that this is a “Labor” blog, are not trying to glean the official Labor party strategy from our postings.

  25. C@t

    And Albanese will continue to ignore baiting and just provide sensible suggestions, which Morrison will eventually adopt.

    ____________________________________

    There was a time under Menzies when Laborites would complain that the Liberals kept stealing their policies. That time is long past. Since 2013 anything Labor has suggested or proposed has been kryptonite to Liberal Governments. The only value with Labor policies to them is that they give the Coalition a hook to misrepresent or to outright lie and to deflect attention.

    The handling of the pandemic by the national government has been the greatest clusterfuck in Australian history. Scummo and his team own it. Any proposal, any involvement, any work by Labor to discuss it will only result in joint ownership by them and feed further into the ‘they’re are all the same (so stick with bastards you have) line that Palmer is tossing out there.

  26. D&M

    Expat Follower has made many posts saying that “Albo needs to tell us now what his COVID opening up policy is for the election to be held in March next year”.

    a direct quote from me which i challenge you to actually pinpoint- as opposed to ascribing your wishful thinking interpretation and putting it in quotation marks… such a lazy punk move.

    i would like to know his thinking his philosophy, would like to see him show some kind of thought leadership and display some kind of attempted leadership. Actually, i’ll settle for proof of life…

  27. Poroti……………re Parker and Bartlett……………It was me cobber………….
    Actually, they have got the ratings they deserve. Parker, I think, is looking for bigger and better things – maybe over East? His breakfast program is talk, talk, talk. Bartlett has an inflated sense of his own important in that “the government” – and by this he means McGowan, is subject of some accountability standard of his own making. I listen to them as they do all they can to stoke up the rusted-ons. Throw in Gemma Tonglini (?) and you have you have a stew of red-neck radio personalities – which to be fair, caters well for 6PRs demographics………

  28. TPOF i left Aus in 1997, joined Pollbludger in 2007 but returned to Australia in 2016 (waited for Abbott to be evicted first lol). So for the first 9 years of my time here i was a true Expat Follower, and that is my PB id, even though i am now happily back in Australia for some time… perhaps should go to PB Deed Poll.

    Spent most of my time in Sth Africa, but also a fair bit in the USA where i also have the vote.

  29. An Alston cartoon in The West Australian from 25 July this year hasn’t aged well 😆

    His tune quickly changed…From August

  30. TPOF,
    There have definitely been suggestions made by Labor, during the course of the pandemic, which have been adopted by Morrison. I listed them yesterday. Also valid critiques. That’s all they need to do. Not create a song and dance about it, just keep proving who has the good ideas.

  31. @EF – “that is an original attitude that im sure worked well at times of war or natural disaster etc.”

    That’s a remarkable level of wilful misinterpretation.

    But agree, CLEARLY motivated and “inspired” by different things. Best wishes, ttfn.

  32. TPOF

    The ‘strength’ of Morrison and his government is to say, at any given time, that the feelpolicy they are pushing has always been the same. It’s an ‘ability’ that can only work for people with no conscience whatsoever. I don’t see anyone in Labor being able to do the same and get away with it.

    Labor’s only hope is to continue doing what it is doing. I can’t see it winning any other way. Certainly not by making itself a target for snipers in front and behind desperately waiting for it to lift it’s collective head (or at least Albanese’s) above the trench to be shot at.

    Excellent post.

    If the Australian people are not ready to accept what science is saying about the pandemic, then Labor will lose.

    They are the party of reason and science. They cannot pretend to be anything else – the voters will not buy it.

    As Wat Tyler said last night, there is a bit of “inevitability” about the outcomes of elections.
    Brexit 2016;
    Trump 2016;
    Morrrison 2019.

    While none of these elections had outcomes that were “inevitable”, these three outcomes were in accord with a world movement to the right, and against faith in democracy.

  33. ‘Expat Follower says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    there will be a time for formal unity, but in the midst of crises, now aint it… that is an original attitude that im sure worked well at times of war or natural disaster etc.
    …’
    _______________________
    Morrison had a chance to show inclusive and decisive national leadership. He blew it.

  34. Tricot
    The ratings gods look to have given you your wish………well a down payment. A bit sad for Parker if he wants to head of to the big smoke over East 🙂

  35. Morrison ran the last election as if HE were in opposition.
    It worked.
    It is not working now that he has to run a country: fires, Covid, Afghanistan, quarantine, vaccine supply, a sea of red ink, thousands of bankrupties, wall-to-wall corruption, a boat crew of shonks, mass extinctions, making an enemy of our chief trading partner.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.HE.TOUCHES.

  36. Expat Follower,

    a direct quote from me which i challenge you to actually pinpoint- as opposed to ascribing your wishful thinking interpretation and putting it in quotation marks… such a lazy punk move.

    I am nothing if not a punk, and always have been.

    Of course, I should have used WTTE before the quotation marks.

    But, if you are asking me to go through your posts and comprehensively quote them to support my argument?

    As a wise sage once said “Tell him he’s dreaming”.

    Unlike the blogs I used to run as part of educational endeavours, we are not marked here.

    William, have you ever thought that we would pay extra to have out blog posts marked?

    Also, can we have “peer group marking” please please please!!

  37. Tricot,

    Poroti……………re Parker and Bartlett……………It was me cobber………….
    Actually, they have got the ratings they deserve. Parker, I think, is looking for bigger and better things – maybe over East? His breakfast program is talk, talk, talk. Bartlett has an inflated sense of his own important in that “the government” – and by this he means McGowan, is subject of some accountability standard of his own making. I listen to them as they do all they can to stoke up the rusted-ons. Throw in Gemma Tonglini (?) and you have you have a stew of red-neck radio personalities – which to be fair, caters well for 6PRs demographics………

    About a year ago, I was interviewed by both 2GB and 6PR. the people who interviewed me seemed relieved to have something non-political to talk about.

    But, I was on-hold for about 3 mins before being interviewed in each case. I though the 2GB listeners who called in were weirder than the 6PR listeners. But it was a small sample.

  38. Boerwar “Morrison had a chance to show inclusive and decisive national leadership. He blew it.”

    For once i can agree with you. Lets hope we dont say something similar about Albo “had a chance to show he could lead and blew it”

    D&M i’m not asking you to do anything except when quoting someone actually use their words and not your own. Low marks for that, scaled down further for a purported educator lol

  39. The Guardian
    There was no flourishing of Afghanistan under foreign occupation. More than 47,000 Afghan civilians died in the conflict; millions have fled as refugees to other countries. Afghanistan remains the world’s largest supplier of heroin; the country has consistently been ranked among the world’s least peaceful and most corrupt.

    The best-equipped military in the history of the world, turned out to be no match for the patience of a brutal, unrelenting Taliban.

    “You have the watches,” the Taliban are fond of saying. “We have the time.”
    With Donahue’s lonely walk, America’s time is up.

    Lucky for Donahue he isn’t in the Navy

  40. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 5:57 pm
    TPOF,
    There have definitely been suggestions made by Labor, during the course of the pandemic, which have been adopted by Morrison. I listed them yesterday. Also valid critiques. That’s all they need to do. Not create a song and dance about it, just keep proving who has the good ideas.
    _______________________________________

    C@t, sorry but I didn’t see your post yesterday.

    In any case, it probably says something that someone as politically aware as myself was not aware of what Albanese has proposed and had accepted by Morrison. Can you imagine how much the average punter is aware of his proposals. I bet the only one most would remember was the $300 incentive one, that was beaten to a pulp with an iron truncheon by Morrison and his boosters. And I reckon that would have actually been popular among the punters (who doesn’t want $300 extra?)

    In fact, thinking about it, the main reason why it stayed in the media as long as it did was because it had enough shape and form for the coalition to be able to attack it. And I bet those attacks stopped when the focus groups reported back that they thought it was a good idea.

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