Significant electoral developments of the past few days:
• The federal government’s package of four electoral bills, which were explained in this earlier post, whizzed through parliament this week with the support of Labor (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that one of the four, dealing with the threshold for registering as a political campaigner, was in fact not considered). Most contentiously, this will give the Liberal Party exclusive rights to the word “liberal” in their registered party name, with the effect that the Liberal Democrats and the New Liberals will have to change names before the next election. It is unclear what the former plans to do, but Victor Kline, leader and registered officer of the New Liberals, says the party will simply identify itself as TNL.
• The new laws also mean that parties will need to have 1500 members to maintain their registration unless they have a sitting member of parliament, which by the reckoning of Kevin Bonham could affect as many of 24 out of the 45 currently registered parties. Those privy to the sitting member exemption include Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, thanks to former Liberal MP Craig Kelly’s decision join, along with the Centre Alliance, Jacqui Lambie Network, Katter’s Australian Party and Rex Patrick Team.
• The state redistribution for New South Wales has been finalised, without much change to the draft boundaries that were published last November. Antony Green has a pendulum with estimated margins for the final boundaries.
Two minor by-elections coming up:
• For the Northern Territory parliament: a by-election will be held on September 11 for the Darwin hinterland seat of Daly, where Country Liberal Party member Ian Sloan has retired due to ill health a year after an election at which Labor was returned to power. Sloan held out against Labor by 1.2% at the election, at which he succeeded retiring CLP member Gary Higgins. The CLP’s candidate is Kris Civitarese, a Barkly councillor; Labor’s is Dheran Young, a former advisor to Chief Minister Michael Gunner.
• For the Tasmanian Legislative Council: a by-election will be required for a yet-to-be determined date early next year for the seat of Huon, encompassing the southern edge of Hobart and its hinterland, after Labor member Bastian Seidel announced he would quit parliament at the final sitting for the year in December. Seidel has complained of a “toxic environment” and “obvious problems” in the party, which would appear to refer to the sexual harassment allegations against David O’Byrne, who was compelled to resign as party leader in July after just three weeks in the job and is now facing calls from within the party, including leader Rebecca White, to quit parliament.
a r says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:12 am
hazza4257 @ #140 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:09 am
This site seems to be a constant stream of complaints about Labor from P1 and theoretical arguments about what the party should be doing to deserve their vote. It’s very tiresome.
Aside from the fact that Labor’s primary vote seems mired in the mid/upper 30s, perhaps. Wouldn’t call it safe to be dismissive of criticism until they’ve reached the lower 40s at least.
Labor’s PV came in at 1/3 in the last Federal election. In QLD and WA, the number began with a “2”.
Labor will not win unless it can increase its PV, particularly in those States. The LNP and the Greens will do whatever they can to make sure that does not happen.
Quoll
An excellent example of Aboriginal people taking charge of their own destiny. Thank you.
N
You are factually wrong.
Instead say Labor won’t win a majority without an increased primary vote.
Minority government is still government.
Asha at 10:14 am
Sadly, life here in the hellhole cave, aka Western Australia, is at least as grim as it is for you. Locked in this prison with a Premier who stubbornly refuses to adopt the life Scrott+Gladys would have us enjoy.
The actual precis at the head of Coorey’s article was this:
It’s a hustle by Morrison, Berejiklian and their media toadies. And it’s so patently manufactured that I wonder why they bother. Once again the Liberals are declaring victory-in-advance by fiddling with the accounting methods. Is it really just to fool the public for a couple of days while Newspoll is in the field? Is that all they’ve got?
On the one hand:
● You have reporters in the ground telling us that people testing positive are being informed only by txt,
● Then these poor saps and their kids are being abandoned to their fate.
● Berejiklian is about to introduce the Trump tactic of withholding test numbers to make it appear like the virus is going away.
● Staff in hospitals are at the end of their tether.
● Ambulances (which we have been told to call without hesitation) are being turned away by EDs.
● Morrison has always been against lockdowns except when he wasn’t, besides when he was. It’s all perfectly consistent.
● Indigenous patients are about to start dying in large numbers.
● No-one knows the rules except something about conducting 1-hour family picnics at which eventually police will be uninvited guests as they check vaccine passports.
At the same time, Phil Coorey and Simon Benson are putting out Happy Talk about how Morrison’s got his mojo back and we’re all going to get our freedoms returned.
If they’re lucky this may slightly arrest the slide in Newspoll we have seen over the last couple of events, which will then presumably feed a bandwagon campaign to prove how popular Morrison and his Binchicken suddenly are again. I guess that’s the plan: One Last Push. Let us not forget that you could put the readership of The Financial Review and The Australian in a dried blowfly’s scrotum and still have room for Clive Palmer.
Unfortunately (for them), once the reality of thousands of cases and deaths in unprecedented numbers sinks in, it’ll only go worse for them.
This is more about Morrison shoring up his own party authority than doing anything about wiping out the virus. He’s hated enough by his own people. If he can’t even win elections anymore, what is the point of him?
Clive Palmer may be a ratbag, but he is a canny, calculating ratbag who has made his fortune through dudding workers and investors, whilst polluting the planet – and wielding legal action to thwart competitors, governments and citizens.
So what’s behind the yellow ads at the bottom of Murdoch anti-Labor pamphlets? Soon to hit your social media feeds, TV screens and prominent billboards.
Well the fat man outlined what he did last time… about to be reduxed with Craig Kelly at the helm.
‘Clive Palmer says he “decided to polarise the electorate” with an anti-Labor advertising blitz in the final weeks of the election campaign, rather than attempting to win seats for his United Australia party.
Palmer told ABC radio in Queensland on Tuesday that two weeks before the election, the UAP conducted research that showed it would win four Senate seats and an 11% share of the national vote.
“But it also showed Bill Shorten would be elected prime minister,” Palmer said.
“We thought that would be a disaster for Australia so we decided to polarise the electorate and we thought we’d put what advertising we had left … into explaining to the people what Shorten’s economic plans were for the country and how they needed to be worried about them.”
Palmer cut a preference deal with the Coalition early in the campaign. He spent an estimated $60m on personal and UAP bright yellow advertising and ran candidates in every lower house seat. The party won no seats in parliament and 3.4% of the first-preference vote.
But Palmer said his shift to attacking Shorten and Labor immediately “improved the government’s position” and that they won a majority on the back of his preferences.
“Ninety per cent of those preferences flowed to the Liberal party and they’ve won by about 2% so our vote has got them across the line.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/clive-palmer-says-he-decided-to-polarise-electorate-with-anti-labor-ads-to-ensure-coalition-win
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/bodies-stacked-to-the-ceiling-as-covid-19-surge-creates-backlog-at-florida-funeral-homes-crematories/
WESH 2 called 20 funeral homes and crematories and many were too busy to be part of our story. Some were too busy to even talk on the phone. One funeral director said that in a 30-minute period where he talked to his partner, four new cases came in.
Mike Marchetti, the area manager for Newcomer Funeral Homes, says as much as they don’t want to, sometimes they have to delay meetings with families and delay funerals because they only have so much staff.
“So the family comes in and they say we would like to have the funeral on Friday and we have to tell then ‘I’m sorry we can’t accommodate a funeral on Friday because our schedule is full,” Marchetti said.
———-
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-data-disappearing-some-states-even-amid-delta-surge-n1277715
Two state government websites in Georgia recently stopped posting updates on Covid-19 cases in prisons and long-term care facilities, just as the dangerous delta variant was taking hold.
Data has been disappearing recently in other states as well.
Florida, for example, now reports Covid cases, deaths and hospitalizations once a week, instead of daily, as before.
Both states, along with the rest of the South, are battling high infection rates.
Public health experts are voicing concern about the pullback of Covid information. Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, called the trend “not good for government and the public” because it gives the appearance of governments “hiding stuff.”
Victoria @ #135 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:04 am
Its my favourite place in the world. I have been immersed in the coastline here since we started coming here for camping holidays when I was 4.
Picture was taken from marked location. Rocky shoreline and pebbly beaches extend south for around 3 km. Amazing lagoon sealife, and countless rockpools. Great fishing.
Player One says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:16 am
N @ #142 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:11 am
Together with the LNP, they bring the anti-Labor numbers in the House to 83 in the current Parliament.
You don’t really believe in democracy at all, do you?
There is nothing in my observations that could be construed as anti-democratic. The numbers are the numbers. There are 83 anti-Labor members in the current House of Representatives. For Labor to win government at an election, it will need to win some of those seats. In reality, this will mean Labor successfully taking seats from the LNP. Labor appear likely to gain 1 seat from the redistributions in WA and Victoria. They will need to win a further 7 seats to eke out a bones-of-the-backside majority. That would mean the 2PP preferred vote nationally landed slightly in Labor’s favour. And that would mean government would be determined by the expressed wishes of the enrolled electorate at a general election. This is the democratic process par excellence.
Victoria is aiming to administer 1,000,000 vaccination doses between 16th August – 19th September in their state run system.
https://t.co/0lV3SEYWmH
A daily average of 28,571 is needed to achieve this.
Current daily average is 29,021 (yesterday: 28,518)
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:13 am
Shellbell @ #76 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 8:58 am
Maybe the Taliban and the US will share intelligence to mount a revenge attack on Isis K
The explainer I linked to tells us where they are mostly located and working out of. It shouldn’t be too hard. The major problem appears to be their links to Pakistan.
”
So now Pakistan Imran Khan regime is so rabid not to support even the Taliban?
Yabba
Sounds really cool. Continue enjoying it in good health!
guytaur says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:21 am
N
You are factually wrong.
Instead say Labor won’t win a majority without an increased primary vote.
Minority government is still government.
Absolute balderdash. You are hoping Labor attain only a minority of seats (and therefore a minority of votes). In an election, if you win fewer votes than your competitors, this is generally considered to be a loss. You want Labor to lose. Stop trying to kid yourself.
guytaur @ #127 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 9:58 am
The headline is deceptive. They’re achieved a return to zero on an Alpha outbreak.
As for Delta, at least they have plans, unlike y’know …
Taking the mask wearing outdoors rule a little too far ? 😆
sprocket_ says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:24 am
Clive Palmer may be a ratbag,
In WA he’s known as a Lib in drag. If he campaigns here, he will greatly assist Labor.
Vic
“Current daily average is 29,021 (yesterday: 28,518)”
It is a modest ambition since they were 33,000 + today.
That is a challenge. I know sooooo many people who vote Liberal for no other reason than they wont vote ALP. Ask them why and it is the usual reasons – in my words… because after decades and decades of shit thrown at them from business lobby groups, LNP pollies, Murdoch and shock jock media (even RCs ffs), for many the ALP is caked in solid stinking mud. And any good policies the ALP bring in are quickly torn down lest they be a lesson to the public what a proactive progressive and left leaning political party can achieve.
There is a reason that left leaning parties have succeeded after a rebranding. “New Labour”! Shakers in the party recognised that they have to shake off the stuck mud.
I just dont know how you do it with the power structure that exists AND keep to the foundations of the party. NZ Labour seemed to have done it. Maybe they have some answers. But they dont have Murdoch.
N
Facts are facts. Stop misrepresenting me.
I want Labor in government. I am happy with a majority I just would be happier with a minority government.
‘The last Labor one was excellent.
It was no wonder the dark side worked so hard to defeat it.
I did not say it was likely. I just called out your factually incorrect post.
N @ #159 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:25 am
You are confusing a “democracy” with a “two-party system”. Democracy was never intended to be a choice between only two opinions. Especially when on many important issues, both those opinions are effectively the same.
https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-recommendations-on-the-use-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-all-young-adolescents-in-australia
The Kabul airport blast is horrendous.
The tiny silver lining, if Morrison, Payne and Dutton are agile enough to pick up on it, is that the Taliban are probably even a bit more motivated to do deals than they were before the blast.
lizzie
I do wish you hadn’t put that post up!
boerwar
Sorry. 🙂 I was reading Twitter so that I didn’t have to watch the PM.
@mehdirhasan tweets
We invaded Afghanistan to fight a terrorist group, Al Qaeda, that attacked us.
As we leave, we’re attacked by another terrorist group, ISIS, worse than Al Qaeda, & which didn’t exist when we invaded.
I’ve said it before: all the war on terror gave us was more war & more terror.
Shellbell
Now that Victoria have more supply of Pfizer for under 40s, the vaccination rate is ramping up.
Simon Katich
The lack of Murdoch helps for sure but there will be some cultural differences going on. Murdoch left NZ after his shit farm failed to thrive over there. The locals weren’t buying what he was selling.
So we have a Federal Govt desperately hoping for an outbreak in QLD, NT,WA,SA and Tas to prove their point that we ‘must live with it and open up’……and that NSW was just ahead of the game.
They are constantly attacking the states with zero cases!
Think about that….that’s where we are.
‘Ven says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:27 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:13 am
Shellbell @ #76 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 8:58 am
Maybe the Taliban and the US will share intelligence to mount a revenge attack on Isis K
The explainer I linked to tells us where they are mostly located and working out of. It shouldn’t be too hard. The major problem appears to be their links to Pakistan.
”
So now Pakistan Imran Khan regime is so rabid not to support even the Taliban?’
________________________________
There is no one Taliban and there is no one Pakistan Government. The Kabul airport perps are probably being paid for by rogue elements of the Pakistan security services. As noted previously, the Taliban* are probably feeling vulnerable ATM. The very notion that the Taliban and the US might co-operate to knock off the airport perps should be taken as a sign of hope in defeat.
We lost the War.
Could we win the Peace?
Pretty rocky there Yabba
I assume that adding 12+ to the pool means that 80% today would mean more than 80% yesterday?
More from Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, the head of the US military’s Central Command, who said in a news briefing that American forces are expecting further attacks in the coming days.
“I think we can continue to conduct our mission, even while we are receiving attacks like this,” McKenzie said, adding that US forces will “go after” the perpetrators of Thursday’s attack.
McKenzie said there were about 1,000 US citizens estimated to be still in Afghanistan. A spokesperson for the State Department said more than two thirds of these Americans had informed it they were taking steps to leave Afghanistan.
It isnt straightforward. Democracy does (or did, or can) rely on an adversarial process where the main aim of an opposition party is to win government. This ensures a contest of ideas – the competition should be good for the health of the democracy.
The problem is that it kinda relies on some level of honourability in the elected MPs, guided by a duty to serve. That duty will stop a politician from opposing or abolishing good policy just because of the game. The duty should also allow for MPs to cross the floor on important matters – one benefit of this would be to avoid a hopeless divide where a bare majority of one party can over-rule the majority of parliament.
All systems of government must be aware that rules and norms from decades ago sometimes need refreshing as the political culture evolves. You may be right in that Australia needs a multiparty system. Or maybe there are other solutions to what I see as a malaise in places like the US and, I would argue, more and more evident here. It is possible a full restructuring of donation laws and political party funding would help. Add to that a better definition of corruption and better way of enforcing it.
Morrison saying that now the evacuation from Kabul is finished, we are moving to a post evacuation stage. Genius.
Imagine his phased plans for getting out of bed in the morning, with a distant horizon of standing vertical.
What a naice way of saying Australia has abandoned those currently waiting to get out.
Itza
Thanks for the giggle.
poroti says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:21 am
Asha at 10:14 am
Sadly, life here in the hellhole cave, aka Western Australia, is at least as grim as it is for you. Locked in this prison with a Premier who stubbornly refuses to adopt the life Scrott+Gladys would have us enjoy.
____________________________________
430,000 Canberrans would be in the same boat except that we are totally fucking surrounded by fucking Morrison-BerejiklianLand.
‘yabba says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:22 am
…
Bateau Bay lagoon sunrise.’
________________________
Cracker of a pic, Yabba.
The eligible vaccination population will increase to approximately 21.8 million which means 80% is about 17.5 million which means at least 35 million for double dose.
On current supply and demand this can be achieved by end of October whereupon the Prime Minister will declare all targets met etc.
boerwar 1 at 10:51 am
It would be ‘orrible having to living in a share house with those two.
I appreciate Victoria is trying to get covid under control but, with appropriate quarantine measures, it would be great of the Hamilton cast could be moved there.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2021/aug/27/broke-and-jobless-melbourne-actors-stranded-in-sydney-after-border-slams-shut
guytaur says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:43 am
@mehdirhasan tweets
We invaded Afghanistan to fight a terrorist group, Al Qaeda, that attacked us.
As we leave, we’re attacked by another terrorist group, ISIS, worse than Al Qaeda, & which didn’t exist when we invaded.
I’ve said it before: all the war on terror gave us was more war & more terror.
—————–
Did not learn from the illegal war and invasion in Iraq, which was the beginning in making terrorism groups stronger
Simon Katich @ #186 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:50 am
We already have a multiparty system. Our problem is that one of the two main parties doesn’t like it when people threaten to use it. The other main party, of course, routinely governs with the assistance of minor parties.
I see Scomo jumped in ahead of Gladys with his press conference this morning. Last time he did that Gladys’ Covid infection numbers were not great. We will soon see.
Scott
Yes. Bush by letting the imperilistic neocons have their way undid the whole aim of the “war on terror”
Edit: His father was wiser.
So, NSW is set to become the state with the most COVID cases. Wonder if that will be noted in the press conference this morning.