Significant electoral developments of the past few days:
• The federal government’s package of four electoral bills, which were explained in this earlier post, whizzed through parliament this week with the support of Labor (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that one of the four, dealing with the threshold for registering as a political campaigner, was in fact not considered). Most contentiously, this will give the Liberal Party exclusive rights to the word “liberal” in their registered party name, with the effect that the Liberal Democrats and the New Liberals will have to change names before the next election. It is unclear what the former plans to do, but Victor Kline, leader and registered officer of the New Liberals, says the party will simply identify itself as TNL.
• The new laws also mean that parties will need to have 1500 members to maintain their registration unless they have a sitting member of parliament, which by the reckoning of Kevin Bonham could affect as many of 24 out of the 45 currently registered parties. Those privy to the sitting member exemption include Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, thanks to former Liberal MP Craig Kelly’s decision join, along with the Centre Alliance, Jacqui Lambie Network, Katter’s Australian Party and Rex Patrick Team.
• The state redistribution for New South Wales has been finalised, without much change to the draft boundaries that were published last November. Antony Green has a pendulum with estimated margins for the final boundaries.
Two minor by-elections coming up:
• For the Northern Territory parliament: a by-election will be held on September 11 for the Darwin hinterland seat of Daly, where Country Liberal Party member Ian Sloan has retired due to ill health a year after an election at which Labor was returned to power. Sloan held out against Labor by 1.2% at the election, at which he succeeded retiring CLP member Gary Higgins. The CLP’s candidate is Kris Civitarese, a Barkly councillor; Labor’s is Dheran Young, a former advisor to Chief Minister Michael Gunner.
• For the Tasmanian Legislative Council: a by-election will be required for a yet-to-be determined date early next year for the seat of Huon, encompassing the southern edge of Hobart and its hinterland, after Labor member Bastian Seidel announced he would quit parliament at the final sitting for the year in December. Seidel has complained of a “toxic environment” and “obvious problems” in the party, which would appear to refer to the sexual harassment allegations against David O’Byrne, who was compelled to resign as party leader in July after just three weeks in the job and is now facing calls from within the party, including leader Rebecca White, to quit parliament.
Christ, of all the names for an internal Liberal group to use, and they went with the Clan???
Asha @ #101 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 9:20 am
At least they didn’t spell it with a K
Confessions @ #15 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 7:47 am
Bateau Bay lagoon sunrise.
yabba,
How do you take a picture and successfully put it up here?
Barilaro appears to have discrepancies in his public statements…
‘NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro made a report to police last year that he was being harassed by content creator Jordan Shanks, after a series of videos were published on YouTube including two now at the centre of a defamation case.
In a statement made to the Fixated Persons Investigation Unit in April this year – seen by the Herald – Mr Barilaro detailed meeting with two detectives in his office on December 2, 2020, the day after Mr Shanks posted a video on his Friendlyjordies channel titled “I called John Barilaro…He Answered”.
……..
In the June statement, Mr Barilaro says his chief of staff was previously in contact with the Fixated Persons Unit to report “incidences of harassment by Jordan Shanks and his followers”, and the staff member contacted them again after Mr Langker spoke to Mr Barilaro on a Sydney street.
Last month, during an interview on Sky News, Mr Barilaro was asked if he requested the Fixated Persons Investigation Unit to be involved in the arrest of Mr Langker. He responded “absolutely not” and “rubbish”.
Host Tom Connell clarified: “So you had no role in that particular unit being involved?”
In a heated exchange, Mr Barilaro responded: “I’ve actually made it clear Tom, I’ve said ‘absolutely not’. For you to be asking that question is an indictment on your level of journalism.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/john-barilaro-reported-friendlyjordies-to-police-six-months-before-producer-s-arrest-20210826-p58m9h.html
Yes, weather in Sydney is back to August-normal: clear and sunny, chilly morning before a mild afternoon.
Must we be bored to tears with mundo’s ‘confident predictions’, day in and day out from now until the next federal election, just like we were in the run-up to the American Presidential election!?! Wrongly as it spectacularly turned out.
I guess we will be.
Zukunftsmusik
It is used today to refer to plans, illusions or projects that are unlikely to be realised any time soon, if at all.
Whether it be an outlandish new invention, brave new business concept or dreams of becoming famous, ideas dubbed as Zukunftsmusik may be nice to contemplate but will probably never come to fruition.
“Terminator says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:17 am
“I don’t even watch Gladys’s pressers anymore, they’re just not informative.” nor do I. The NSW Health and Hunter New England Health facebook pages are uploaded with all the relevent info as the presser/bullshit starts.”
We catch the first 30 seconds where gladys announces the number of new cases and deaths. Then at 11:45 watch the ACT press conference (on ABC in Canberra) until the reporters’ inane questions start.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1425 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 10:03 pm
The shorter A_E:
Labor don’t want to have to deal with independents and minors. It would force us to choose between the electorate and our donors!
Clive Palmer has his yellow message across the bottom of the printed Hun again.
“Lockdowns destroy jobs’ ‘We can never trust Liberal or Labour again’
P1
I disagree with you voting Liberal before Labor in your preferences.
I do agree with you about Labors weakness. Too much attention to donors not enough to grass roots.
So for me a minority Labor government will be excellent.
I can hear the Murdoch howls of outrage right now.
laughtong @ #112 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 9:36 am
Yet he will preference the Liberals. So, yeah nah, Clive you fat blimp. Oh yeah, and Delta destroys people’s lives and livelihoods too.
Cat
In my opinion the antivaxxer appealing politicians are going to do very very badly in the election.
This time at least Palmer’s propaganda is attacking the Liberals. His outsider schtick will fail to help elect the LNP. If every state had done a NSW I think it would be a different story
guytaur @ #74 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 8:55 am
I wonder if Labor will support it, as they have done for Beetaloo Basin and every other Coalition fossil fuel policy?
guytaur,
Clive Palmer’s preference deal will still be done with the Liberals. In secret. Like last time.
C@tmomma @ #104 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 9:25 am
One way, which is easy
Phone.
email to self. (or transfer any other way you know or can figure out)
Save image on computer.
open https://postimages.org/ No need to log on or register
upload photo from computer
Copy direct link shown, and include in your post.
PS my daughter took the photo on her RealMe 6. I have had it made into a 75×50 canvas for our wall.
Cat
Yes. I just think unlike in 2019 it’s not going to work this time.
Edit: The pandemic is a black swan and as I said above his usual tactics of being an outsider won’t cut it. See incumbency advantage in competent government
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
1h
BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths, including backlog from Florida
As I posted earlier, Australian evacuation mission in Afghanistan is now complete according to Defence Minister Dutton. According to him all Australian soldiers are evacuated. I thought Australian soldiers duty is to protect Australian citizens and Permanent residents. I was naive to think that Australian passport has a value well above its status in the world. Atleast 1000 people of Australian citizenship and Permanent residency are left to their fate in Afghanistan which could be as fatal as death. This is the second time in a couple of months when Australian citizens and Permanent residents are abondend in another country in critical situation. To reiterate when push comes to shove some section of Australian Diaspora are treated like boat people by this government. Forget about foreign countries look at their fate in Sydney.
Why are the Liberals so determined to make us all suffer? They are the most miserable, mean group.
Seems some think that Barilaro might’ve been sending in the ‘fixated persons’ unit on FJ and this means the rise of state control and restrictions on free speech in Australia.
On PB at least the sending in of the ‘terrorist squad’ on climate activists for using a bit of chalk on the pavement is apparently fine. Because you know, Labor loves sucking on the teat of Woodside, one of Australia’s biggest carbon emitters and platinum member of both the Liberal and Labor parties.
I wouldn’t expect anything less from the PB Labor clique, squealing about the Libs and ignoring their own party’s potential political interests in police action to protect their donors reputation and interests
WA ‘counter-terrorism police’ raid climate activists’ homes over chalk graffiti
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-counter-terrorism-police-raid-climate-activists-homes-over-chalk-graffiti-20210820-p58kn0.html
The homes of six West Australian climate activists have been raided by police amid allegations they graffitied a Perth CBD bridge with chalk paint during a protest against oil and gas giant Woodside.
Officers from the state security investigation group, whose duties include counter-terrorism, searched the homes for several hours before arresting the protesters on Thursday morning.
The activists were charged with property damage and told to pay $2000 in reparations each.
They were later released on bail under the condition they did not go within 200 metres of Woodside’s headquarters in the CBD or associate with one another, but some members charged are related.
guytaur says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:37 am
So for me a minority Labor government will be excellent.
There we go. A Green-o-phile, hoping for a Labor loss.
The Greens are Labor-phobic. The single worst thing that could happen for the Greens would be the election of a strong, purposeful, successful Labor Government. They will do whatever they can to prevent that, and, should a Labor Government be elected, they will collude with the LNP to destroy it. The Greens exert a wholly baleful influence on Australian political life.
Lizzie
Great timing from Frydenberg.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/25/taiwan-zero-covid-cases-outbreak-vaccine-test-trace
N
Stop your projection of what I am hoping for. You are misrepresenting me.
My position is Labor in government not the Liberals
”
Confessionssays:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 7:18 am
Michelle Grattan writes that in a week when the NSW government lost control of COVID, the state’s daily new cases rising above 1,000 and hospitals under severe strain
The NSW government never had control of Covid to start with! If it had been in control from the start, we wouldn’t be experiencing the crisis we’re having now.
”
I will slightly disagree with you. They could have had control of the situation but it appears they choose not to.
Guytuar
Last election, Palmer spent $80m on advertising and got the result he wanted.
This ‘both sides are bad’ approach works with that cohort who have the prejudices about politicians confirmed, so why bother voting for one or the other – or for that matter changing the traditional voting pattern or deciding on the day.
Compare this with the Murdoch approach ‘Labor bad, LNP good’ – and as the advertising is disguised as ‘opinion’ and/or biased front pages, the dollar value puts Clive’s $80m in the shade.
In short, both Palmer and Murdoch are anti-Labor ratbags – and put their money in, with the expectation of payola.
Q: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has urged WA to lift its vaccination rates — declaring it is a ‘fallacy’ to think you can ‘eliminate COVID, because we cannot’.
So having disgraced himself in Victoria, I see Josh is taking his road show to WA…..keep up the good work Josh!
Cud,
Do you know if we can work out how many cases are in each LGA?
NSW health has stopped releasing contact site information – only 24 active sites now show on the map for the whole of Sydney and the Blue Mountains. Yet I know of two different sites around here that had positive cases in the last few days. We are in the City of Sydney LGA. The cases are similar to ones nearby from mid-June, which had a lot of publicity, and were definitely on the map.
Pseudo Science
@psuedo_science
Replying to
@ProfPCDoherty
and
@ConversationEDU
NHS in England are setting up 15 #LongCovidKids clinics. *7.4% of children aged 2-11 and 8.2% of those aged 12-16 report continued symptoms* Evidence is still emerging especially re Delta. https://england.nhs.uk/2021/06/nhs-se
it is all very odd. Have they introduced a 5th ministry – Ministry for Liberalism?
Yabba
Beautiful image. Well done!
How can states lift their vaccination rates without vaccines from Frydenberg’s government?
pukka at 9:30 am
A cousin of wunberwaffe. Gladys and Scrott have one at the moment the 70% vaccination wunderwaffe which will also be Zukunftsmusik.
Sprocket
Yes. I entirely agree with you. However my opinion is Labor in government has used the black swan event of the pandemic effectively. Queensland will not be the fertile ground it was for Palmer in 2019.
The polling trend shows this. We will have to wait and see if that translates to results on Election Day.
The both sides thing works. However when Labor has been leading on competence and science out of the major parties in ways voters cannot ignore that ground is far less fertile for the LNP.
This site seems to be a constant stream of complaints about Labor from P1 and theoretical arguments about what the party should be doing to deserve their vote. It’s very tiresome.
Seems like the better position of Indigenous Australians in Vic might’ve had something to do with a strong local indigenous health service, started in 1973 by the likes of current Vic Senator Lidia Thorpe’s grandmother, Alma Thorpe
Noticed they’ve been quite active in promoting vaccination in their community
Victoria leading the pack for most mob vaccinated
https://nit.com.au/victoria-leading-the-pack-for-most-mob-vaccinated/
https://www.vahs.org.au/
https://www.aboriginalvictoria.vic.gov.au/alma-thorpe
In 1973, she helped establish the Victorian Aboriginal Health Service (VAHS) in an old building in Fitzroy’s Gertrude Street. Her mother, ever willing to do what was needed, lent her services as the cleaner.
Its creation was significant. After decades of marginalisation and institutional neglect, Aboriginal people were taking charge of their own interests. This spirit of self-determination led to several other Aboriginal-run organisations being established, all underpinned by what Alma called a spirit of ‘independence, integrity and land rights’.
Alma poured all her energy into the Health Service. As her fellow founder and mentor, Dr Bruce McGuiness, put it, “”Without Alma Thorpe there wouldn’t have been a health service.”” The Service aimed to provide quality health and dental care to the Aboriginal community. From one doctor and a committed group of volunteers, it has grown to employ many staff across several sites around Melbourne.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1425 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 10:03 pm
…..at least 140 (and in all probability 145) out of 151 seats will fall to either the coalition or Labor
The independents and minor party candidates are neo-Lib, proto-Lib or crypto-Lib. They should be counted as informal associates, clones, reserves, auxiliaries, adjuncts, supplements, or tributaries of the LNP. Labor cannot rely on them…other than to rely on them to foil Labor if at all possible. They are Libs in camouflage. Together with the LNP, they bring the anti-Labor numbers in the House to 83 in the current Parliament.
I see the Coalition are continuing with their bold “insult voters in key battleground states” strategy. Time will tell if it pays off.
hazza4257 @ #140 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:09 am
Aside from the fact that Labor’s primary vote seems mired in the mid/upper 30s, perhaps. Wouldn’t call it safe to be dismissive of criticism until they’ve reached the lower 40s at least.
hazza4257 @ #140 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:09 am
If yo don’t want to hear any point of view other than how wonderful Labor is for supporting Liberal party policies, I suggest you stick to http://www.alp.org.au.
However, don’t expect to find much actual policy discussion there.
Palmer will be leading an anti-both parties campaign. My question is what is the electoral effect of this – where do preferences flow from these minor RW parties and what is the outcome?
These are the articles I expect to see on here, rather than just rehashing poll results. Maybe that sort of in depth analysis is more favoured by people like Antony Green.
I, for one, am pretty comfortable in my Queensland cave right now, suffering under the tyranny of being able to leave the house, eat out, and visit friends whenever I please. I imagine most in WA are feeling pretty similar right about now.
Torchbearer says:
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 10:02 am
Q: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has urged WA to lift its vaccination rates — declaring it is a ‘fallacy’ to think you can ‘eliminate COVID, because we cannot’.
So having disgraced himself in Victoria, I see Josh is taking his road show to WA…..keep up the good work Josh!
Yes. It’s heartening to see the Victorian Liberal campaigning against the interests of WA Liberals.
N @ #142 Friday, August 27th, 2021 – 10:11 am
You don’t really believe in democracy at all, do you?
Asha
And those of us in NSW are looking on in jealousy. Vaccination doesn’t come into it as the ACT proves you can do both.
Lockdown and have high vaccination to reach freedom thresholds. You don’t have to do the NSW give up approach.