The latest Newspoll from The Australian finds Labor retaining its 53-47 two-party lead from three weeks ago, with both major parties steady on 39% of the primary vote, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%. Scott Morrison has fallen into net negative approval for the first time since March last year, being down four points on approval to 47% and up the same amount on disapproval to 49%. Anthony Albanese is steady on both approval and disapproval at 38% and 46% respectively, and has narrowed Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister from 51-33 to 49-36.
Also included are ratings for Scott Morrison’s handling of coronavirus in general, on which his good rating is down four points since last time to 48% and his poor rating is up four to 49%, and of the vaccine rollout in particular, on which he is down two to 38% and up two to 59%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.
The under 40s will get vaccinated in droves once there is enough Pfizer (or Moderna) supply and available vaccination bookings!
A further problem for the federal government, of course, is that it’s now in the interest of every State and territory government to blame the feds and the vaccine rollout for all the lockdowns and associated disruption. Meanwhile, the nutters on the right who might in other circumstances be defending the feds are focused either on criticising lockdowns (which in itself doesn’t really help the feds, but more tends to highlight the States’ counterargument that lockdowns wouldn’t have been needed but for the failed rollout), or on quixotic arguments in favour of a rollout of various veterinary medicines.
As Richard Feynman said of the Challenger disaster, “reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled”.
For what it’s worth, pretty much all the state polling we’ve seen since the last federal election has been on the money.
>Ie what’s in it form me to switch etc?
Morrison and the Libs are a known quantity to be true. Getting pretty well known for being incompetent, corrupt and spin-obsessed, and now those features are getting people killed and maimed. The stench around them is getting to the point that the proverbial drovers dog could beat them.
Yeah, that. Nagging everyone to just get AZ and be happy isn’t going to cut it. Fixing up the vaccine supply is key. Whose job is that, again? And why aren’t they producing any results?
On Labor policy, I think that is a red herring. For as long as I have watched politics governments lose more than oppositions win. Morrison is losing now. Albo needs to keep careful.
And if Morrison thinks an early election is tough now, it won’t get any easier after COP26, probable export tariffs, a climate changed hot summer and a few trials proceeding. Not a lot to look forward too. That only leaves him a last budget and more pork. Butwill that work for him again after car pork being exposed?
I think it’s time for an election so we can get Scott Morrison out of office and get a better PM..
ScoMo will take comfort knowing he doesn’t have to go to the polls for another nine months.
He’ll look at the stats that show vaccination targets may be hit late this year or early next, allowing restrictions to ease.
He imagines an election where the public will have forgotten about the vaccine rollout debacle, much like they have his bush fire response.
But the public doesn’t forget and sadly this pandemic has a long way to go.
south @ #48 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:14 pm
Always with the sarc, absent understanding. *sigh* indeed. It’s called political reality. Maybe you and your young friends should try it some time? Still, what can anyone do when some people are prepared to blame Labor, no matter what?
Quasar
The article also mentions the issue of boosters.
Socrates @ #56 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:22 pm
Soc,
Bushfire Recovery $$ have been held back to splash around at the election.
Cat
“ Bushfire Recovery $$ have been held back to splash around at the election.”
The self defeating part of that strategy is that Labor can point to bushfire damaged communities still waiting for rebuilding funds to show Morrison’s promises are as worthless as a car park without a railway station.
a r
“Yeah, that. Nagging everyone to just get AZ and be happy isn’t going to cut it. Fixing up the vaccine supply is key.”
I’d say there’s a large number of younger people who are currently oblivious to the differences between vaccines, but that may change in future. One thing we do need to do real soon is approve the use of Pfizer as the 2nd dose if you’ve had one dose of AZ.
And I’ll also repeat what I said above. 20s and 30s are disproportionately involved in infections because they are more mobile and more social and thus the best answer for them is to deny access to social venues to the unvaccinated. This will encourage take up even more strongly than money.
JohnCee is correct. It’s getting to the stage where people are losing their businesses because Scott Morrison couldn’t get the vaccine rollout right and they won’t forget that if people are finally able to be vaccinated by the end of the year. You don’t get a new business with every jab. Though, as desperate as Scott Morrison will undoubtedly be I can guarantee he will be thinking about something to win people back to the fold.
“And if Morrison thinks an early election is tough now, it won’t get any easier after COP26, probable export tariffs, a climate changed hot summer and a few trials proceeding. ”
Its making me happy 🙂
@Asha – I can certainly say that when Morrison took over, my response was less negative on him, but that he was a good option to steer the ship to a moderate loss, and be untainted enough to serve as OL.
But here we are. I don’t see where the ground-swell for a PM change will come from.
On that – however – it leaves me with my three options for election timing.
1. 20/27 November – yes, feels early, but would be called before additional Senate estimates, and potentially before the full economic impact of the East Coast shutdowns is known – but (hopefully) after the vaccination rates have peaked.
2. 5 March – probably the most likely. Call the election immediately after Australia Day – before the full brunt of the of economic data comes out and also again post vaccine/lockdown world.
3. 21 May – the last possible day – pull an early Budget in late March
Unless disquiet starts arising among his party room, in which case such a large window of time might start being like a Sword of Damocles.
Socrates @ #62 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:27 pm
Exactly. Some people in Cobargo are still waiting for promised money from the federal government. If Morrison turns up at 5 minutes before the election with a big wad of cash, well at least the promise of it, I think they’ll be absolutely sceptical.
Here’s a question for you political tragics..
Given that handling of covid is a big issue politically, how does the current map of Sydney look?
Are the worst effected areas of LGAs also marginal seats?
What about the marginal seats in the Central Coast and Hunter?
jt1983,
Nice to see you back. 🙂
I read that Morrison and Frydenburg are planning another early Budget, so #3 might be the go.
Cat
The other thing is that the more Labor hammer Morrison’s proven dishonesty (easily done with video of him telling his own whoppers) the less his promised pork is worth. Most of those car parks are still not built.
Morrison’s bushfire relief wasn’t worth anything.
His vaccine promises weren’t worth anything.
His car park promises weren’t worth anything,
So why vote for his promises in 2022?
cud chewer,
Here you go: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717
Reference 9 in the Doherty report used for Table S2.2. Doherty modelling uses 65% reduction in onward transmission when infected for their assumption for delta. Courageous! Non-variant specific from what I can see and likely mostly Alpha during this time period in UK. Passive, not active follow-up, so asymptomatic cases may have been missed.
Other modelling are using lower proportions for effectiveness of onward transmission as an assumption:
35% to 45% in Imperial College modelling
http://thegovernmentsays-files.s3.amazonaws.com/attachments/173/1738810-1-S1303_Imperial_College_London_Evaluating_the_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown_for_England_modelling_the_delayed_step_4.2_of_the_roadmap_in_the_context_of_the_Delta_variant__7_July_2021__1_.pdf
50% in Grattan modelling
https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Race-to-80-Grattan-technical-supplement.pdf
EDIT: Added “effectiveness of” as it may have read the opposite to what I intended.
In terms of maringal Lib seats – the ones in NSW impacted would be Lindsay, Reid and Robertson. In terms of Labor, it might save Fitzgibbon (ugh) in Hunter. I think Morrison’s play was to retain those seats, and target Dobell, Gilmore, Macquarie (most marginal Lab seat) and Greenway (and maaaaybe Parramatta).
Unless something significant happens, I’d be …quite surprised if that strategy is still a priority.
Cud Chewer @ #69 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:33 pm
I’d say Shortland and Paterson are okay. Pat Conroy and Meryl Swanson are both liked well enough in their electorates to be able to withstand the Liberals if the Liberals are on the nose.
I think the electorate of Hunter just want to bone Joel Fitzgibbon.
Dobell actually has a former pharmacist, Emma McBride as their Local Labor Member and I think that might work in her favour what with Covid and all.
As far as Robertson is concerned, insipid Lucy Wicks may not be there by the next election, so I’m told. Then, if Labor don’t pick an equally insipid candidate again, it might be up for grabs at last.
Griff
Thanks for the links.
A little confused by the reference to “reduction in onward transmission” in one paragraph and then “proportions of onwards transmission” in the other.. they seem to be the converse of each other.
Has anyone explained to the politicians the huge sensitivities involved? Small changes in the rate of reduction of retransmission equals large changes in the threshold of herd immunity.
Seems to me there is some “good enough for the purpose” assumption going on but no one has communicated this to the likes of Gladys.
Soc,
Labor certainly have a compelling story to tell about Morrison this time. No longer is he an unknown known. 🙂
Wat
“ Unless disquiet starts arising among his party room, in which case such a large window of time might start being like a Sword of Damocles.”
I think the one thing even Labor supporters would have to acknowledge is the team spirit, unselfishness and internal loyalty the Liberals are famous for. The incumbent crew are especially notable for their trustworthiness. Morrison can be confident of the unwavering support of his cabinet and MP team from now till election day.
A marginal Liberal MP would rather lose their job than betray their leader.
Cat
Exactly; only 4% undecided. Just stick to a simple line: Morrison lies. His election promises are like his vaccine promises.
I can still see Morrison extremely tempted by any immediate post-vaccination related sugar hit.
C@t
I’m worried about Paterson (my electorate) because of the huge sums of money thrown at it by the Liberals in the past. And they are just as likely to do this again.
Boning Joel probably means ending up with Liberal (or worse).
Good to see Lucy Wicks gone. I took an instant dislike to her. Cookies were nice though.
cud chewer,
Apologies, all estimates are reduction of onward transmission when infected and using the data from Harris et al, 2021.
It is late. Time to sleep! 🙂
If Swanson could withstand the swing in 2019, I think she’ll be OK.
jt1983
I don’t see how this works out for Scomo.
Most likely the cases in NSW go into the thousands (or higher) and persist, including heavy lockdowns in most of Sydney stretching into December. And quite likely cases will persist in the thousands well into the new year as it will take until May for vaccination to finally go high enough.
The best case scenario for Scomo is that NSW persists with lockdown of Sydney till November and finally gets it back to zero. Then Scomo can be predicted to put off taking any risks (reopening borders) until after the election.
Even so, the legacy of harm to NSW will lose him seats in Sydney.
Griff
Ah ok. In that case I think Imperial College are being a tad pessimistic.. We’ll see.
Socrates
Thanks for the laugh 🙂
Fabulous hand over to Paris. Fabulous.
@Cud – I’ve disagreed with the expectation of exponential or even gentle growth to the thousands – still do.
But on your point – I do expect the Morrison will take whatever opportunities he can to win. As I mentioned – NSW was where Morrison expected to gain seats, to offset likely losses elsewhere. Now… this has not only nuked that option, but probably cost him 2-4 seats.
What Morrison now needs to do is really quite tricky – which is why I think he’ll be even more opportunistic.
Just to be clear – my gut is that March, then May, then November my order of likelihood.
jt1983
“I’ve disagreed with the expectation of exponential or even gentle growth to the thousands”
You think its hundreds of thousands then?
Seriously the current outbreak is growing exponentially – doubling every 9 days. It can only get worse because the more cases there are, the less effect contact tracing has. In other words, the doubling period gets shorter.
The only hope is Gladys getting serious about the lockdown.
jt1983 at 10:30 pm
In the current environment, the PM would have to have rocks in his head to go for an election any earlier than the latest possible date. With the delta variant becoming dominant, going before the maximum possible number of people had been vaccinated would give rise to a very high risk of the country having to go into lockdown mid-campaign, which w0uld lead the government to be ground into dust. Mr Albanese’s “he had two jobs” campaign message would be as deadly as cyanide.
And going early would also put voters’ health at risk, and for that reason alone would be grossly irresponsible. The successful conduct of state elections last year is no guarantee of a safe federal election; the delta variant has made sure of that.
What Morrison now needs to do is really quite tricky – which is why I think he’ll be even more opportunistic.
He’ll pull out all stops. If he’s facing defeat, he’ll be like a cornered rat.
Now the Olympics is over and spring weather on its way, discontent in lockdown is going to skyrocket. Hope compliance doesn’t drop too. People are going to want to go out and about and down the pub. Can’t see an election in November unless Scotty has ordered another miracle.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/08/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-8/comment-page-1/#comment-3673641
Young people being disillusioned over negative gearing are more likely to be prospective first home buyers unable to win at auctions, outbid by landlords (who them sometimes end up renting the property back to people they outbid at the auction). Unlike the other tax policies the ALP took to the last election but has now dumped, negative gearing and capital gains tax reform has specific non-general revenue winners, first home buyers. When the ALP took this to the last election they assumed everyone new this and did a vastly insufficient amount to counter the Liberals` tax narrative. In dumping negative gearing reform the ALP have decided that can`t be bothered trying to fight the Liberals` narrative, this however has some political risk for them in seats where the Greens are also in or near the contest, particularly given rising house prices are very much a current issue.
Tom,
it’s the kids fault that negative gearing exists. C@t has spoken!
I do think that labor not fighting for this policy will be a big opportunity for the greens on the left flank.
When labor says anything about fair go. there’s a whole generation of young people not getting one that are pretty tuned into things.
I do think the ALP has a very very good chance of winning the next election. But I worry about the style of government, the size of the thinking and the lack of reform agenda. We really can’t afford status quo into the future.
We have to have at least a half-Senate election in time for the newly-elected or re-elected Senators to take their seats on July 1. In practice, this means mid-May. In theory, Morrison can delay the House election until early September.
https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/
He would do it if he thought it was his his best chance of winning, precedent, cost or the national interest be damned. His media and business allies would run interference for him. Even so, I think it unlikely. Things should have settled down by the end of Summer, with vaccination rates at or close to 80%. It’s even possible that he sees a window of opportunity in November-December. However, my money, were I a gambler, would be on a May election.
Morrison has achieved far more than he’s ever expected. Morrison has nothing to lose, he remains friendless in the Parliamentary Liberal Party, even in his own electorate. The poll are clearly showing a trend.
The Liberal Party have a lot to lose. Having to admit to, as the superior elite, that they are wrong will impose a heavy burden.
Morrison grabs the booty and runs. It could now be before or after the election. Morrison has little option and is no longer in control.
There is very little upside for Australia for the rest of this year. The following year, 2022, will further expose the social and economic cost of the pandemic and that the failed short term solutions thrown at the pandemic have been badly designed and implemented.
Morrison doesn’t go down holding the hose. Morrison has already taken to his den. The voters rarely see him as he makes himself unavailable.
The unknown territory is what happens if Morrison is forced to hold the hose by his supporters in the parliamentary party.
If any of Morrison’s replacements for the top job are prepared to put up their hand now, many would immediately question their sanity.
There is now, no easy way out of what is going to be a long pandemic and a longer recovery.
Except of course if enough of the elitist liberals, fastened firmly together by their hatred of all things Labor, lose hope.
Howard and Abbott poked the fire one time too many in their electorates.
The lockdown in the areas adjacent to the electorate of Cook are a concern for heart of the Shire.
Berejiklian’s inability to implement workable strategies to control the pandemic in Sydney may we’ll disperse the entire Liberal flotilla.
How much of the tax payers money will Morrison blow if left to fight off the inevitable defeat.
Morrison may hand the assassin’s knife to the voters in the electorates. He has nothing to lose.
Morrison let’s the voters take the blame!
Let’s drink beer down by the chook house!
No winners, just mayhem!
it’s the kids fault that negative gearing exists. C@t has spoken!
Another wonderful display of comprehension skills, south.
Deserves wider posting…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy28Siy8MRo
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
R(eff) now estimated at 1.24. No way can vaccination bring this to under 1.0 in under 2 months.
And btw, his projection for Sep 1 is about a thousand cases per day.
rhwombat, if you’re still about, thanks for that link on the other thread. I enjoyed it. It’s good to see the old buggers still enjoying themselves. But in the end I prefer his older version. It’s less polished and maybe just less self aware. It’s hard to tell with nostalgia. 🙂
https://youtu.be/HvNPW7Uu31Q?list=OLAK5uy_nnk-ZG8UwyZuwkq-sJXOSCuEz3MpdJ55k
Our PM got his 2nd jab in March. In case anyone needs reminding, we’re now in August.
This would have been OK politically, had the rest of us been able to follow suit. But he hadn’t ordered enough for us. Even though that’s his job. And he knew that when he got his 2nd jab. (And if he didn’t, he should have known. That’s his job too.)
Here’s a current link where I snagged the image.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/no-hiding-the-government-s-failures-on-vaccine-supply-20210808-p58gxg.html