First up, note that below this post is a review of recent happenings in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany by Adrian Beaumont.
Now to the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison’s position has not further declined since last month, with his approval down one to 50% and disapproval steady on 40%. However, Anthony Albanese, who has long done relatively well out of this pollster in consistently recording net positive ratings, has taken a seven-point tumble on approval to 34%, while his disapproval is up three to 38%. The change on preferred prime minister is more modest, with Morrison’s lead out from 46-28 to 45-26. The effects of all this on the BludgerTrack trends can be observed here.
The stabilisation in Morrison’s personal ratings are not matched in the regular question on the government’s response to COVID-19, which has approached net negative territory for the first time with an eight-point drop in good to 38% and a four-point rise in poor to 35%. The Berejiklian government’s good rating of 47% is down seven points on what was already its worst result last month; the Victorian government is up five to 54%; and the Queensland government is down two to 60%. The Western Australian and South Australian ratings of 82% and 73% are off unreliably small samples, but both are well in line with their long-term averages.
Respondents in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were asked about the lockdowns in their states, the survey period having begun before the Queensland lockdown. Fifty per cent of New South Wales respondents felt the government had not locked down hard enough, compared with 11% for too hard and 39% for about right. By contrast, 71% of Victorian and 85% of South Australian respondents felt their governments had it about right. However, there is some evidence of a shift in attitudes in Victoria in that more felt the lockdown too harsh (23%) than not harsh enough (6%). The respective results in South Australia were 6% and 9%, a difference well within the margin of error.
The poll sample had two bob each way on lockdown support: 47% believed the federal government was doing enough compared with 37% for not enough and 6% for too much, yet 66% supported the return of JobKeeper with only 11% opposed. The lockdown protests of the weekend before last had 18% support with 67% opposed (which is at least more favourable than the numbers reported from New South Wales by Utting Research). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1057.
Sceptic
It is all dependent on the supply chain of vaccines in place, occurring as planned.
They just wont say that bit out loud.
Two items on twitter gave me a quiet chuckle:
and this reminder:
Pity the font here doesn’t do the 0’s justice…
I am watching with interest the statistics on first doses (>16 years) which range between 37.3% in Qld and 48.9% in ACT.
On the assumption that the % of folk who have a first will also have a second is very high, the changing in the rates of the first dose should tell us when hesitancy may be kicking in.
Whilst delta is not yet controlled in NSW, the rest of Australia is at risk.
Let’s hope that GladysB and co really do have a plan that is going to work.
It is for all our benefit.
Bert @ #22 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 8:20 am
That’s okay, Bert, it’ll be worth waiting for. 🙂
Alpha zero
Has Leigh Sales popped up yet. She went on a break sometime in June.
I was expecting her to present herself at the pressers with GladysB.
Cos who can forget her incisive questioning of vic Premier during our 2nd wave.
Good times………..
Well, Coles Woy Woy, in their ever so cute and intentionally non-threatening way, have employed a pimply young kid at the entrance to the supermarket to make sure we all scanned in and used our hand sanitiser. 🙂
Victoria @ #56 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 9:58 am
Maybe she’s gone on holiday with Oakeshott Country? 😉
C@t
Good one. That gave me a chuckle!!
“Let’s hope that GladysB and co really do have a plan that is going to work.”
I love your deadpan satire, Victoria, I really do. 😉
Saw the dead wood West Australian this morning. and one thing leapt out. A couple of pages in was a large headline “The Death Toll of 80%” in a double page spread . Definitely not a friendly headline re SfM’s latest ‘plan’ . For some reason a worried looking Josh Boy had his picture there. Oh and the death toll was given as 1500 p.a. .
Scotty ? He was,again, depicted having a spectacular bike crash by the cartoonist. This time a track bike rather than BMX.
È100 percent. Mask wearing is the easiest and most effective thing every person can do.
How easy would it be to run a campaign explaining why masks help stop the spread.
I know it is common sense. But this pandemic has shown me how childish and stupid adults are.
———–
Burnet Institute
@BurnetInstitute
Victorian #COVID-19 restrictions like #masks will remain for months, but we have to beat complacency. “We need some clever #PublicHealth messaging around masks and other preventive initiatives,”
@MStoove
tells
@josephdunstan
@abcnews
@KnowC19_Burnet
One graph shows why COVID vigilance will be a challenge in the months ahead
A public health expert says clever campaigns may be needed in the months ahead, as data shows mask compliance on trains has risen and fallen with outbreaks over the past six months.
abc.net.au
Next query on the Doherty modelling. Drilling down to the assumptions, I am interested in Table S2.2. Vaccine effectiveness estimates (%). The assumption is that following the second dose, both AZ and Pfizer will be 65% effective against onward transmission of the Delta variant. This is based on the following letter to NEJM by Harris et al: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717
In this reference, I cannot find COVID-19 variant specific data. Nor within the supplementary file. This is key as the vaccines may be less able to prevent transmission as compared with the alpha variant.
Second, the transmission rates were based on passive rather than active surveillance/follow-up.
Third, I note that Imperial College modelling for the UK are also using data from Harris and used the assumption for infectiousness if infected with the delta variant of 45% (optimistic comparison with alpha, 40% (central comparison with alpha) and 35% (pessimistic comparison with alpha) i.e. they are allowing for the decreased effectiveness of the vaccines against the delta variant.
So, I am not saying the assumption of 65% effectiveness post second dose is inaccurate in the Doherty modelling. I am just saying that the evidence is not easily apparent.
OK, that is enough procrastination 🙂
Kakuru
I want to believe that GladysB can be trusted. But so far, I am not convinced. Lol!
Griff
Vaccination alone will not be adequate.
Mask mandate indoors and outdoors will need to continue. As well as continued practice of socially distancing.
Note to Gladys
For the record, the Doherty Report rates the restrictions in Victoria (well done Victorians) as more stringent than NSW.
(PHSM – Public Health and Social Measures)
• Baseline PHSM – only minimal density/capacity restrictions, as in NSW March 2021 (baseline TP
as used above)
• Low PHSM – more stringent capacity restrictions, as in NSW 23 August 2020
• Medium PHSM – stringent capacity restrictions, group size limits, stay-at-home orders (except
work, study, essential purposes), as in NSW 1 July 2021
• High PHSM – no household visitors, curfew, stay-at-home orders (except essential purposes &
permitted work), as in VIC 23 August 2020
To be fair, PHSM in NSW have been tightened since July 1, but still not High PHSM as Doherty defines it.
And the outcomes support the rankings.
ps Clarity of messaging would be another area where NSW falls down.
Simon Katich
Well they have been bombarded with bullshit for 18 months by the Telegraph,2GB, Kyle and the PM of Eastern Sydney.
Victoria,
And even with these measures, I am suggesting that the modelling on transmission and death rates may be optimistic.
ItzaDream,
I agree with the modelling assumption there 🙂
Griff
Could well be the case.
GladysB is relying on vaccination rate of 50 percent before easing restrictions. I cant see how that is feasible in light of the modelling done.
Will the media ask her about this at her next presser?
”
Alpha Zerosays:
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 9:46 am
Two items on twitter gave me a quiet chuckle:
G00d M0rning, GladysB
L0ve fr0m Vict0ria.
and this reminder:
Pity the font here doesn’t do the 0’s justice…
”
That tweet by Leigh Sales didn’t age well, isn’t it. Even Morrison and Frydenburg are coverts to this cause.:-)
I’ve said this before. Leigh sales and her reporting during our second wave in Victoria was the worst.
I wont forget it.
Seriously worse than channel 9 or 10.
I wont say channel 7, cos I absolutely refuse to watch anything on that station.
Apart from some of the Olympics at moment.
Lol
Griff @ #63 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 10:08 am
Good stuff. There’s lots there. Uh huh, the transmissibility data and assumptions were a significant ‘ello ‘ello moment.
And the need for recurring PHSM of varying severities is a steady message.
I’m hoping Clennell from Sky News is at Gladys vaccination target update presser this morning.
Haven’t seen him for the last couple of days.
He will be no doubt primed with the Doherty Report data and is one of the few journos in NSW who doesn’t mind holding Gladys feet to the fire.
Hello Leigh Sales, Westralia loves you, you give us so much……..
I think Steven has a few kangaroos loose in top paddock..
Guardian Blog
Steven Miles also wants Queenslanders to stop buying outdoor furniture if they are under lockdown:
We are still seeing some people going out to shop or to browse for non-essential reasons and while there is an exemption to allow people to leave their homes to get essential groceries and medicines that does not extend to other discretionary items.
It has to be essential and the onus is on the individual to have a reason to leave their home, not on retailers or businesses.
Now is not the time to buy outdoor furniture. There will be time before summer to get sun lounges.
——————————————–
It’s simple if you don’t want them to buy sun lounges.. SHUT the bloody store!
Victoria @ #56 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 9:58 am
Only if someone rubs her nose in it.
mundo @ #78 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 10:28 am
She lives in a hermetically-sealed ABC bubble and anyone she doesn’t care for the opinions of on Twitter, she blocks.
C@t
For all we know she is probably taking time off due to ill health.
But that does not take away her relentless reporting of how bad Victoria was handling the second wave and how wrong the lockdowns were.
I have no respect for her.
She could have said something by now regarding the predicament her state is in now.
Her last tweet was on 24th June.
No mention before or since re the situation in NSW.
Very different to all the commentary she made about Victoria. Even gatecrashing our pressers.
And you are right. She blocked anyone who challenged her. She accused people of bullying. Sheesh
Victorians felt more than bullied by her views and reportage. It was triggering.
Just a reminder, not that we need it –
Justin Stevens
@_JustinStevens_
Premier Berejiklian to
@abc730
on June 10: “We have in New South Wales taken our citizens on a particular journey and it is very different to the journey other states have taken their citizens through. They’ve opted for the harsher, blunter instruments.”
(Justin Stevens exec producer 7.30 report)
So is Leigh on annual leave or is something else going on there. She’s been away for awhile.
Not that I’m complaining, Laura and her sardonic side eyes are great fun, we look out for them when watching.
Griff @ #63 Wednesday, August 4th, 2021 – 10:08 am
Yet it almost certainly is.
If further ‘persuasive publicity’ on vaccinations is anything like previous attempts, I think the money would be wasted. Better to spend the money on community organisations in touch with their local people. But that’s not the LNP way.
Perhaps it’s just me but I want facts and proper planning, not a cascade of PR garbage on the Covid situation now and in the future.
😆
The judge ? Relaxed and comfortable. Perhaps he agreed with the comment 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/melbourne-barrister-takes-umbrage-after-someone-says-fuckwit-during-online-court-case
I was delighted to read that Albo called Morrison a liar in an exchange across the tables in Parliament yesterday. I know he had to withdraw it, but the truth is always good to hear. 🙂
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/08/03/coalition-agrees-to-give-300-to-gerry-harvey-for-every-australian-vaccinated/
I gather that Gladys has refused to admit that her mockdowns didn’t work, so she’s changed her emphasis to vaxes.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/04/essential-research-leadership-ratings-and-covid-management-2/comment-page-2/#comment-3670080
… them pollyTICs must be really cross with Wuflu for not respecting colour coded spreadsheets or marginal electorate gerrymandering?
On that note, I do not know why they bother with a Census, given said colour coded spreadsheets …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-04/christine-holgate-million-dollar-payout-from-australia-post/100348412
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/04/essential-research-leadership-ratings-and-covid-management-2/comment-page-1/#comment-3669999
Indeed, horizon x, scenario y, plan z (stage a, phase b, step c, task d …)!
‘Perpetual motion’ is here .
.
Eternal Change for No Energy: A Time Crystal Finally Made Real.
……………in collaboration with physicists at Stanford, Princeton and other universities say that they have used Google’s quantum computer to demonstrate a genuine “time crystal.” In addition, a separate research group claimed earlier this month to have created a time crystal in a diamond.
A novel phase of matter that physicists have strived to realize for many years, a time crystal is an object whose parts move in a regular, repeating cycle, sustaining this constant change without burning any energy.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/first-time-crystal-built-using-googles-quantum-computer-20210730/
233 cases
It’s not going down.
233 cases NSW with 47 (at least) in the community.
High levels of Covid in the sewerage in the Hunter.
233 with “at least” 44 – so a lot more – infectious in the community
Holdenhillbilly
Yes, but how many unknowns?
Newcastle / Hunter alert