Family First the second

Fragmentation on the right continues apace, with even former Labor folk now joining in. Also: a new poll records a big thumbs-down for the weekend’s lockdown protests.

Miscellaneous developments of the week so far:

• Former South Australian state Labor MPs Tom Kenyon and Jack Snelling have quit their former party over “moves to restrict religious freedom” and announced their intention to reactivate the Family First party and field candidates at the state election next March. The original Family First was folded into Australian Conservatives when Cory Bernardi joined it in 2016 and wound up at his behest after its failure at the 2019 federal election. Kenyon and Snelling have long been associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, which is in turn associated with Catholicism and social conservatism, and includes among its number the party’s state leader, Peter Malinauskas. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports this has the approval of party co-founder Andrew Evans; presumably this explains it obtaining the old party’s database of 6000 supporters, as reported by David Penberthy of The Australian. Whereas the old party consistently directed preferences to the Liberals, Snelling has ruled out preference deals with either major party.

• In other party split news, Peta Credlin writes in The Australian that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta for the Liberals from 1996 to 2004 but is these days noted as a staple of Sky News after dark, “could head the Liberal Democrats’ NSW Senate ticket”. Earlier reportage on the matter said only that Cameron was involved with the party’s strategy and candidate recruitment.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Matt Burnell, an official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for its safe northern Adelaide seat of Spence, which will be vacated with Nick Champion’s move to state politics. Burnell reportedly scored 88 union delegate votes and 68 state conference delegate votes, each amounting to a third of the total, to just two and seven respectively for rival candidate Alice Dawkins, daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The rank-and-file membership ballot that made up the remaining third went 140-42 to Burnell.

Peter Law of The West Australian reports that first-term Liberal MP Vince Connelly, whose seat of Stirling is being abolished, “looks certain to contest Cowan, which is held by Labor’s Anne Aly”. By my reckoning, the seat has a post-redistribution margin of 1.5%, making it a seemingly unlikely prospect for the Liberals at a time when polls are pointing to a Labor swing in the state upwards of 10%.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a poll conducted on Monday by Utting Research from 1600 respondents in New South Wales found only 7% supported Saturday’s lockdown protests, with fully 83% opposed. The poll also suggested Scott Morrison’s standing is continuing to tumble, with 37% satisfied and 57% dissatisfied (the state breakdown in last fortnight’s Resolve Strategic poll had it at 46% apiece). By contrast, Gladys Berejiklian maintained 56% approval and 33% disapproval, while the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, recorded 70% approval.

• Emma Dawson, the executive director of the Per Capita think tank who appeared set to ran as Labor’s candidate against Adam Bandt in Melbourne, has announced her withdrawal. Dawson said this was for “personal and professional reasons”, although it followed shortly upon her criticism of Labor’s announcement that it would not rescind tax cuts for high income earners if elected.

• Craig Emerson on election timing in the Financial Review:

The December quarter national accounts are scheduled for release on March 2, 2022. Morrison might feel confident that the economy will bounce back in the December quarter from the September quarter’s negative result. But would it be wise to take a chance on a double-dip recession being announced during a federal election campaign? That would be a catastrophe for the Morrison government: marked down for its refusal to accept responsibility for quarantine, presiding over the slowest vaccine rollout in the Western world, and forfeiting any claim to be superior economic managers … But an April or May election would face the same risks, since the March quarter national accounts would not be released until after the election must be held … A late-February election might be the best bet, though the federal campaign would overlap with that of the South Australian state election scheduled for March 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,483 comments on “Family First the second”

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  1. Diogs,

    It serves us well.

    We have a raft of lawyers ready to negotiate with the Covid or if all that fails, sue it’s arse off!

  2. GG:
    “Diogs,
    Harry Jenkins senior was a doctor.”

    Let’s not forget Francois “Papa Doc” Duvalier, President of Haiti from 1957 to 1971.

    Che Guevara was a doctor too. Not to mention a talented Rugby forward.

  3. Ardern has a majority until the next election, which isn’t due until 2024.

    Sure, this poll may be a worrying sign of things to come. Could be a temporary dip too. I don’t follow New Zealand politics closely enough to have an opinion either way, but it definitely seems like whoever is reporting on that poll has a bit of an axe to grind.

    Majorities also happens to be the exception rather than the norm in New Zealand. 2020 was the first one since they moved to MMP. I imagine Ardern and her colleagues are well aware that a second majority is a tall order.

    A quick look through previous NZ elections on Wikipedia also shows that primary votes are far from being an indication of who will govern. Its all very dependant on where the seats fall, how the many different minor parties perform, and the deals that can be made post-election.

    All that said, if Ardern’s popularity is indeed “plummeting” (my mostly uniformed reading of that poll leads me to think it’s just reverting to the norm after the stratospheric rise post-Covid), it would suggest that perhaps we shouldn’t really be boasting about being just ahead of New Zealand in the vaccination stakes.

  4. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2404 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:46 pm

    Player One @ #2218 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:43 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2397 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:42 pm

    But she’s not a politician, she’s a candidate to become one.

    I think we can both agree to hope she makes a better politician than she did a scientist.

    That is a disgraceful slur.

    How are you in any position to judge the quality of her work as a scientist?

    So you think she will make a worse politician than she did a scientist?

    You could be right.

  5. Player One @ #2225 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:50 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2404 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:46 pm

    Player One @ #2218 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:43 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2397 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:42 pm

    But she’s not a politician, she’s a candidate to become one.

    I think we can both agree to hope she makes a better politician than she did a scientist.

    That is a disgraceful slur.

    How are you in any position to judge the quality of her work as a scientist?

    So you think she will make a worse politician than she did a scientist?

    You could be right.

    You are a disgrace.

    Continue to hide behind your ignorance.

  6. On the substance of tonight’s debate, I caught Ananda-Rajah on Q&A and thought she came across as less of an objective scientist and more of a committed lefty. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with that, but she’s going to have to expect a bit of criticism of her past public comments.

    Her most appropriate response would be along the lines of “I’m not afraid to call it as I see it.”

  7. For what it’s worth, anyone saying scientists can’t/don’t become politicians are forgetting Margaret Thatcher (briefly) and (more notably) Angela Merkel.

  8. I think we can both agree to hope she makes a better politician than she did a scientist.

    Where do you get off?

  9. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2411 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:52 pm

    Player One @ #2225 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:50 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2404 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:46 pm

    Player One @ #2218 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:43 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2397 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 9:42 pm

    But she’s not a politician, she’s a candidate to become one.

    I think we can both agree to hope she makes a better politician than she did a scientist.

    That is a disgraceful slur.

    How are you in any position to judge the quality of her work as a scientist?

    So you think she will make a worse politician than she did a scientist?

    You could be right.

    You are a disgrace.

    Continue to hide behind your ignorance.

    Ok, now I’m confused. Given her contradictory statements, do you think she will make a better or worse politician than scientist? I would have said that this was a bad trait in a scientist, but quite a useful skill in a Labor politician.

    But I’m happy to go along with whatever you and Labor decide.

  10. The converse of thinking every scientist (or professional) is eminent because they tweet a lot applies.

    “Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah
    @rajah_mich
    I caution young people demanding access to AZ. An 18 yr old died in Italy this week-massive public outcry, age threshold raised, confidence dented. Deaths alone are not the only consideration. 25% need ICU, relapse possible, morbidity can be significant including PTSD. 1/n”

  11. World Medical Association version of the Hippocratic Oath

    At the time of being admitted as a Member of the Medical Profession, I solemnly pledge myself to consecrate my life to the service of humanity.

    I will give to my teachers the respect and gratitude which is their due. I will practise my profession with conscience and dignity.

    The health of my patient will be my first consideration. I will respect the secrets which are confided in me even after the patient has died; I will maintain by all the means in my power the honour and the noble traditions of the medical profession; my colleagues will be my brothers.

    I will not permit considerations of religion, nationality, race, party politics or social standing to intervene between my duty and my patients; I will maintain the utmost respect for human life from its beginning even under threat and I will not use my medical knowledge contrary to the laws of humanity.

    I make these promises solemnly, freely and upon my honour.’

  12. As for doctors, there are a few. Just off the top of my head in Australia there’s Di Natale, Kerryn Phelps… Andrew Laming was an optometrist or something along those lines. In the US, scarily there’s Ben Carson and whichever of the Pauls it was, either Rand or his father.

  13. Regarding Michelle Anand-Rajah’s comments, I couldn’t find a transcript of the QandA session but here is report from February 2021, just after the episode.
    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/qa-on-covid19-vaccine-experts-clash-over-astrazeneca-jab/news-story/fb8147450459395ff1c6286078170266

    Her comments have been taken out of context – obviously by the Daily Tele and friends to trash her reputation now she is a Labor candidate. She was discussing AZ’s effectiveness after a study in South Africa when the Beta variant was the dominant strain. AZ was found to be only 10% effective against catching COVID, which would be “failed” under any definition. South Africa decided to abandon AZ after that study (although it was only small and couldn’t test for prevention against hospitalisation or death). She was saying why not just go with the most effective vaccine we could get hold of as a starting point.

    If Australia had ordered an extra 30 million doses back in Feb when she said those words, we’d be in a much better position right at this moment. Even though we are dealing with Delta, not Beta.

  14. @diogenes

    If I remember the story correctly, he was there on duty that night, but I think it’s an urban legend that Brown actually certified the death?

  15. Player One @ #2235 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:56 pm


    Ok, now I’m confused. Given her contradictory statements, do you think she will make a better or worse politician than scientist? I would have said that this was a bad trait in a scientist, but quite a useful skill in a Labor politician.

    But I’m happy to go along with whatever you and Labor decide.

    Maybe you might want to read the transcript William posted.

    Then you might want to go away and hide.

  16. Oops i see that William has posted the transcript.

    Also interesting in that news.com.au article is that Michelle Ananda-Rajah was arguing with Nick Coatesworth about the virus being airborne. She was saying there was clear evidence .

  17. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 1, 2021 at 10:06 pm
    I see Littlefinger is quick out of the blocks on twitter politically profiting off Peter Bol.
    _________________________
    He likes human props. Both his election campaigns featured photos of groups of people standing with Bill in uniquely awkward arrangements.

  18. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2432 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 10:10 pm

    Player One @ #2235 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:56 pm


    Ok, now I’m confused. Given her contradictory statements, do you think she will make a better or worse politician than scientist? I would have said that this was a bad trait in a scientist, but quite a useful skill in a Labor politician.

    But I’m happy to go along with whatever you and Labor decide.

    Maybe you might want to read the transcript William posted.

    Then you might want to go away and hide.

    I read it. It seems to agree pretty well with what I have already quoted. I wonder if she regrets anything she said back then. Perhaps this bit … ?

    Dr Ananda-Rajah said there was “some merit” to a slightly delayed rollout given “interesting data” coming from the field.

    She certainly is not saying that now. Now, it’s “full steam ahead” with AstraZeneca!

  19. Loris @ #2250 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 8:11 pm

    Also interesting in that news.com.au article is that Michelle Ananda-Rajah was arguing with Nick Coatesworth about the virus being airborne. She was saying there was clear evidence but good ole Dr Nick didn’t agree.

    Her point seemed to be that it didn’t matter if it was a droplet or aerosol this presented a serious risk especially in environments like hospitals.

  20. Sad state of affairs if your priority is guns in USA:

    https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-government-and-politics-iowa-gun-politics-8d1390fa898059c49c712b1d64746ff8

    DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Officials have voted to declare two Iowa counties as Second Amendment sanctuaries where any laws hindering gun rights cannot be enforced, joining similar efforts across the country and coming even as Iowa has significantly loosened firearms regulations.

    Republican supervisors in Jasper County unanimously approved a resolution Tuesday and Republican supervisors in Hardin County did the same Wednesday, becoming the first Iowa counties to implement such measures.

    Elsewhere in the U.S., at least 1,200 local governments have declared themselves sanctuaries insulated from state and federal gun laws since 2018, when high-profile mass shootings prompted calls for stronger regulations. An ordinance passed in Columbia County, Oregon, last year is the first to face a legal challenge over whether it can be enforced.

    The Iowa resolutions say the county supervisors want to ensure that citizens’ rights are protected against legislation on the state or federal level.

    The Jasper County resolution says federal and state lawmakers cannot be solely trusted to protect people’s Second Amendment rights and that any legislation or order from a federal or state legislature or executive that infringes on constitutional gun rights “shall not be enforced by an individual employed by the Jasper County Sheriff’s office or any other employee of Jasper County.”

    “Let’s hope it is never needed,” said Supervisor Doug Cupples.

  21. Some other doctors in the federal Parliament: Senator John Herron, Dr Wylie Gibbs (Member for Bowman, brother of Sir Harry), Senator Felix Dittmer, Senator “Spot” Turnbull.

  22. Loris

    Yes, exactly. But AZ has been known to be less effective against all strains, ever since the original trials. It did particularly badly against the South African strain. Fortunately that strain did not become dominant.

    Frankly I’m a bit tired that real differences between vaccines have been thrown into the “must never be spoken of” category.

  23. Barney,
    edited my post after reading the actual transcript rather than the article summary. I think the point was that airborne transmission had to be acknowledged and not assumed to be droplet only.

  24. Loris

    “Also interesting in that news.com.au article is that Michelle Ananda-Rajah was arguing with Nick Coatesworth about the virus being airborne. She was saying there was clear evidence .”

    Kudos to her. Nick Coatesworth was part of the problem and may still be. This petty avoidance of the precautionary principle has led to many quarantine leaks we didn’t need to have. That limo driver for instance (the one behind the current unfolding disaster) should have been given a full, pressurised respirator.

  25. Michelle Ananda-Rajah have been taken out of context.

    Just read the transcript;
    the “the vaccine failed in terms of its efficacy” was in reference to a study in South Africa due to very low efficacy figures in people around 30 years old.

    An she said “I feel that is a population level experiment ” based on AZ not having enough efficacy. She called it a moderate level of efficacy and was worried about not being enough, especially since the virus is mutating.

    Lastly she said all this before NSW had the outbreak and when the advice was for AZ to be used by 60 years and up.
    Context really matters, which some choose to ignore!

  26. One could have written that as “having made certain of Jimmy Hendrix’s death”.. but that could be misinterpreted.

  27. Player One @ #2252 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 8:14 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2432 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 10:10 pm

    Player One @ #2235 Sunday, August 1st, 2021 – 7:56 pm


    Ok, now I’m confused. Given her contradictory statements, do you think she will make a better or worse politician than scientist? I would have said that this was a bad trait in a scientist, but quite a useful skill in a Labor politician.

    But I’m happy to go along with whatever you and Labor decide.

    Maybe you might want to read the transcript William posted.

    Then you might want to go away and hide.

    I read it. It seems to agree pretty well with what I have already quoted. I wonder if she regrets anything she said back then. Perhaps this bit … ?

    Dr Ananda-Rajah said there was “some merit” to a slightly delayed rollout given “interesting data” coming from the field.

    She certainly is not saying that now. Now, it’s “full steam ahead” with AstraZeneca!

    She was talking about results coming out of South Africa showing that AZ was was much less effective against the South African variant. She then said that she thought that Australia should move to a different mix of vaccine options, dropping the AZ vaccine.

    Now, Australia didn’t adjust its vaccine option, so the AZ is the one most available in Australia, so people should take it.

    She never expressed a view that people should not vaccinate, she did express a view that Australia should look at options that didn’t include AZ.

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