By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

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  1. poroti @ #1599 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:46 pm

    C@t

    …Certainly we know ATAGI’s advice (and the debate it prompted) contributed to vaccine hesitancy including among those for whom AZ is most appropriate – older people – and this is very unfortunate.

    I don’t think Atagi was to blame for hesitancy. Hesitancy was pretty strong well before the Scotty+ Atagi news circus. I’m looking at how Hunt and Morrison handled the issue of clots when they first gained public attention. They failed to address it and then told us all would be well because we will be getting a bazillion Pfizer vaccine doses in a few months. Game over.

    And then there was uncertainty about GPs being covered for adverse effects, and then there was the infamous declamation from Morrison that you make your decisions and you takes your chances, who gives a shit.

  2. If and when ATAGI changes its advice from now on – even if the PM’s view has nothing to do with that change – will it have the same credibility? Won’t many people, already suspicious and cynical, think: that’s just ATAGI giving into political pressure?

    If the perception of ATAGI’s independence is going to be undermined, the usefulness of the body – whatever it says – becomes questionable.

    Scrott had his big Atagi outburst a day or two before the Atagi boss cocky was scheduled to leave his post. Scotty sure as hell timed it to make it look like the departure and Scrott’s ‘outburst’ were connected and now the ‘change of advice’ . Well done Scrott, another ‘institution’ tainted by you.

  3. Victoria @ #1598 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:42 pm

    Sprocket

    I am hoping a clear and concise strategy is on its way. They dont have a moment to lose.
    Especially after the covidiots today potentially enabling a superspreading event.

    In Victoria last year, the Govt reached out to community leaders and faith leaders within the communities where the virus was most spreading.
    NSW Govt needs to reach out to their community leaders and gain their trust to get the message to cut through.

  4. Victoria @ #1598 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:42 pm

    Sprocket

    I am hoping a clear and concise strategy is on its way. They dont have a moment to lose.
    Especially after the covidiots today potentially enabling a superspreading event.

    Victoria, I have to hand it to you. Hope springs eternal. The only plan we’ve heard was Gladys’s “pledge” to reopen construction. Floundering is the word.

  5. Itzadream

    It’s for all our benefit if GladysB and co find a steely reserve and determination to plot their way through.
    Victoria did it. So can NSW.

  6. The process is that ATAGI advises Govt, then it’s up to Govt to positively interpret that to their constituents. The Govt’s messaging has been non-existent.

  8. ItzaDream @ #1596 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:51 pm

    poroti @ #1599 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:46 pm

    C@t

    …Certainly we know ATAGI’s advice (and the debate it prompted) contributed to vaccine hesitancy including among those for whom AZ is most appropriate – older people – and this is very unfortunate.

    I don’t think Atagi was to blame for hesitancy. Hesitancy was pretty strong well before the Scotty+ Atagi news circus. I’m looking at how Hunt and Morrison handled the issue of clots when they first gained public attention. They failed to address it and then told us all would be well because we will be getting a bazillion Pfizer vaccine doses in a few months. Game over.

    And then there was uncertainty about GPs being covered for adverse effects, and then there was the infamous declamation from Morrison that you make your decisions and you takes your chances, who gives a shit.

    All roads lead to Morrison.

  9. WTF is this ‘stockpile’? And why is Morrison squirrelling it away?

    ‘Deputy chief medical officer Michael Kidd has confirmed a shipment of additional Pfizer vaccines will be delivered to NSW this week.

    Professor Kidd confirmed that the extra 50,000 Pfizer doses are coming from a yet unallocated supply from the so-called national stockpile.

    “The commonwealth will increase the emergency allocation to New South Wales of additional doses of Pfizer from 150,000 to 200,000 doses this week,” he said.’

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-will-receive-50-000-additional-pfizer-doses-from-national-stockpile

  10. In a victory for the little guy, Venice has banned Cruise Ships!

    Regardless of what happens, it’s clear that cruise ship tourism is not going back to being what it was pre-COVID. Venetians have had a glimpse of what life without cruise ships could be, and they like it.

    Hopefully, more travelers are also realizing industrial-style tourism is a terrible way to travel for numerous reasons. It’s not unlike industrial agriculture and fast fashion in that its dubious goal is to cram as many sights, landmarks, and countries into as tight a schedule as possible, for as little money as possible. Its fixation on convenience erodes the very spontaneity, human connections, and preservation of meaningful spots that make travel so valuable in the first place.

    https://www.treehugger.com/venice-says-no-cruise-ships-5193315

  11. Victoria @ #1605 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:58 pm

    Itzadream

    It’s for all our benefit if GladysB and co find a steely reserve and determination to plot their way through.
    Victoria did it. So can NSW.

    Don’t I know. I for one am reasonably frightened, personally, and for the Sydney I love, and for NSW, and yes of course for Victoria, and Melbourne, after all they’ve been through. I despise Morrison, I can’t tell you how strongly, and my feelings about Gladys are no secret. Maybe NSW can do it; I’m not so certain.

    I’ve brought my second AZ forward, OH has several risk factors (68, 6’2, 110kg, asthma history, arrhythmias and pacemaker, trying to bring his second AZ forward), and so it goes.

  12. C@tmomma @ #1608 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 9:01 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1596 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:51 pm

    poroti @ #1599 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 8:46 pm

    C@t

    …Certainly we know ATAGI’s advice (and the debate it prompted) contributed to vaccine hesitancy including among those for whom AZ is most appropriate – older people – and this is very unfortunate.

    I don’t think Atagi was to blame for hesitancy. Hesitancy was pretty strong well before the Scotty+ Atagi news circus. I’m looking at how Hunt and Morrison handled the issue of clots when they first gained public attention. They failed to address it and then told us all would be well because we will be getting a bazillion Pfizer vaccine doses in a few months. Game over.

    And then there was uncertainty about GPs being covered for adverse effects, and then there was the infamous declamation from Morrison that you make your decisions and you takes your chances, who gives a shit.

    All roads lead to Morrison.

    That Grattan piece was telling. I’d missed it.

  13. If I were under 60 (and especially under 40) and living in Sydney I would be very unhappy at being forced between a choice of (a) catching COVID; (b) waiting for Pfizer; or (c) putting myself at risk of rare but serious adverse events from AZ and then waiting 6-12 weeks for immunity to kick in. Melbourne managed to get its outbreak under control last year without any vaccines and again this year with only limited vaccination. Admittedly it’s now the Delta variant, but NSW just needs to get on with stricter social distancing. Vaccination won’t do much to control its outbreak in the short term. Long term yes, but they need to act now!

  14. loris says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 9:19 pm

    We have too much foreign interference and anti-vaxxor nut cases here in NSW.

  15. This Aladdin’s Cave to the rescue stunt is exactly the behaviour of someone always wanting to be seen as the White Knight. Deeply inadequate personality behaviour.

  16. Itzadream

    I have not held back expressing my disdain for Morrison and GladysB over the duration.

    But the situation is on a knife edge. The next few months are going to be challenging, no doubt about it.

    The CHO of every state as well as the Health ministers will no doubt pull together to assist NSW in doing what needs to be done.

    Fingers crossed it can be achieved.

    And you guys are doing everything necessary to protect yourselves. All good.

  18. Hazzard this afternoon described today’s riot as “a bit silly”.

    So much for appraising offenders of the seriousness of an out-of-control pandemic.

  19. Ioris

    Victoria had delta outbreak in early June that we eliminated.
    We are close to doing it again.

    NSW need to do the hard work. It can be done.

  20. Whoops. .
    https://twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1418600598631436293
    South Korean broadcaster MBC used images to “represent” each country during the #Tokyo2020 Opening Ceremony.

    Italy: pizza
    Norway: salmon
    Haiti: upheaval
    Ukraine: Chernobyl



    Not a first: For the 2008 Beijing Olympics, MBC introduced Cayman Islands as “famous as a tax haven for establishing offshore funds.” Chad was “the dead heart of Africa” and Zimbabwe had “murderous inflation.”

  22. Victoria, SA is also showing the way to overcome Delta! The rest of the country really wants NSW to get it under control – then we’ll all be safe. At least until vaccination rates increase.

    Regarding Pfizer stocks, I asked previously, could the distribution of vaccines to GPs be based on marginal electorate status? I recall Jeannette Young saying that Qld was running low, but only a quarter of the Pfizer stocks going to Qld this month were being administered in the state hubs. The rest were going to GPs. So what’s going on there? Especially with this mysterious stockpile the Federal government seems to have. Are they being sent out according to a colour coded spreadsheet?

  23. Loris,
    You’ll only ever find out the answers to your questions in Senate Estimates after the election. If you’re lucky. 🙂

  24. ItzaDream @ #1610 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 9:22 pm

    This Aladdin’s Cave to the rescue stunt is exactly the behaviour of someone always wanting to be seen as the White Knight. Deeply inadequate personality behaviour.

    Deeply secretive. Sneaky. Just like his Budget Allocations for :’Decisions made but not announced’. Or in other words, pork barrels.

  25. Maybe John Hewson knows more?

    @JohnRHewson
    How many of the Morrison Govt have been vaccinated and with what vaccine? Given Morrison’s penchant for all things political, even in a pandemic, it’s amazing he’s not allocating jabs according to colour-coded marginal seats.

  26. Loris

    Due to the failures by Morrison and co with the procurement of the vaccines and supplies thereof, we are being deliberately gaslighted by them.

    Who knows how much Pfizer is really available.
    They have been obfuscating all the way through this process.

  27. bcsays:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 8:59 pm
    Engineering with Rosie, Hydrogen in the Natural Gas Network: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrKvj2MHLVw

    That Paul Martin in this vid is a far better communicator than any engineer I’ve seen on PB and his range of articles are worth checking out.

    Saw this months ago but would generally consider it a waste of time to post here when it seems so evident that many bludgers rarely bother to follow up, read or try to understand anything others post or say. The most partisan and prolific being far too busy being loud and most importantly posting their own highly ticketed opinion multiple to dozens of times a day, day after day.

    His energy and climate solutions ideas are pretty close to what the Greens are arguing for with a Green New Deal recovery, 1 put a price on carbon, 2 electrify as much as possible with a smart grid, 3 overbuild renewables (solar and wind) with backup and storage.
    He supports nuclear if you already have it but he thinks SMR, fusion, aside from the giant fusion reactor the sky aka the Sun, and CCS are a crock unlikely to ever deliver and that hydrogen and ammonia for fueling transport or anything much are a waste of time as well.

    He seems to be suggesting, rightly, that the kind of so-called gas-led recovery we’re seeing is probably a crock being pushed by the fossil fuel industry, which apparently has bipartisan support in Australia from the major parties, who the fossil corporations conveniently provide donations and sponsorship too. Not to mention providing the staffers, consultants and lobbying post politics sinecures to both Liberal and Labor parties as well.

  29. The seeding event in NSW was so much worse than in Victoria or S.A. I blame the Federal Government for not restricting incoming flights sooner. The news about Delta should have led to vastly increased security measures.

  31. Recon says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 9:49 pm

    int flights go into quarantine. So the numbers wouldn’t matter at all.

    Hard Lockdown would be better.

  32. Quoll spouting garbage again. Obviously has nfi about Labor’s Energy policies, and what’s more, doesn’t care to find out.

  36. Victoria

    I don’t think a lot of people have yet come to terms with the fact that NSW has given up. I’m sure lots of people are still believing that this is fixable, somehow.

  37. Cud. I’ve been asking about whether you have any source for your claim about Elon Musk’s roadster?

    I’ve been looking at the early history of Tesla and though there were some issues it doesn’t seem that bad. I haven’t come across anything that indicates that Musk sent the guy’s Roadster into space out of spite. It may have happened, but do you have a source?

  38. Sceptic @9:52

    The scary bit is that that’s the ICU beds for a country that’s more than half vaccinated. We aren’t. Everything we’ve seen overseas, including overflowing morgues is coming to us (or at least NSW).

  39. Cud Chewer @ #1632 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 10:03 pm

    Victoria

    I don’t think a lot of people have yet come to terms with the fact that NSW has given up. I’m sure lots of people are still believing that this is fixable, somehow.

    It’s not simply that NSW has given up. It’s why has Gladys given up? Though it hasn’t been formalised yet. However, the protest today tells you who is behind the putsch.

  47. a r says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 11:02 pm

    Impressive that getting stuff to Jupiter’s moons only costs $200m now.
    _______________

  48. a r

    That’s just for the launch service. And its a fair bit more expensive than their regular commercial rate, but that’s NASA for ya..

  50. Me having second Astrazeneca and following with interest the availability of any vaccine for the under 20’s. My offspring would like to get it. At the moment in W.A. the risk / reward is probably for them to get Pfizer, but if we were in NSW then it would be whatever we could get soonest.

    Its with not a small amount of despair to see the protests in NSW and Victoria. What, it will take about a week, 10days to see if these have been super-spreader events?? That’s got to affect the calculations for Victoria at least on how long their lock-down goes on.

    NSW, maybe not so much since they are run by Libs who have always had a preference for letting it rip and “protecting”the economy as the priority.

    And for NSW to do the “we are poor people who help every one else and you lot aren’t helping us.” ?? FFS, use up some of the Astrazenica NSW is apparently “”awash” with as that will protect the integrity of the hospital system soonest.

    Honestly, we need to get production based on the mRNA platform up and running in Asutralia as well as the older methods that CSL seems pretty good at. And i wouldn’t be giving up on the UQ molecular clasp platform either. Bet you will find longer term that a diversity of approaches for local vaccine production is going to be an essential from a national security perspective. There are other things out there besides Covid 19 and this wont be our last pandemic. 🙁

    Want people to “learn to live” with pandemics? When we have staffed, 1000 bed purpose built quarantine facilities in each state then i’ll hear you on that.

    The protesters?? I reckon bust the lot of the selfish boofheads. So passionate about their own freedom and so contemptuous of others. 🙁

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