Election news:
• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.
• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.
• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.
From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):
• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.
• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.
Psephological arcana:
• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.
• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.
• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.
lizzie @ #1394 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 4:27 pm
And there’s been interviews with their GPs, mayor, religious leaders which say they care very much.
Boerwar
Working out what the numbers really man is like trying to wrangle snakes.
True enough – particularly when I initially forgot to divide by 2! 😀
Article referring to John Ruddick in Murdoch’s Oz dated 14-7-21 (not paywalled)
C@t
I have read that this is more than an Australian movement, encouraged on Facebook. Ruddick is trying to bignote himself.
Thanks, citizen. In other words, a Libertarian loon.
Ruddick should be kept under surveillance and fined for multiple breaches.
Are we seeing the 7 stages of grief for Gladys
Shock and denial. This is a state of disbelief and numbed feelings.
Pain and guilt. …
Anger and bargaining. …
Depression. …
The upward turn. …
Reconstruction and working through. …
Acceptance and hope.
I have just discovered a couple of historical path crossings.
Cornelis Van Gogh, brother of Vincent, died in the Battle of Elaanslagte and and Willem Mondriaan, Piet Mondriaan’s brother was captured.
Within a very small geographical space of the Battle of Spion Kop, Botha, Churchill and Ghandi probably crossed paths. Imagine if shot and shell had intervened with any of those three!
‘Ven says:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 5:10 pm
Are we seeing the 7 stages of grief for Gladys
Shock and denial. This is a state of disbelief and numbed feelings.
Pain and guilt. …
Anger and bargaining. …
Depression. …
The upward turn. …
Reconstruction and working through. …
Acceptance and hope.’
______________________
Where does ‘Disappearance’ fit in?
”
boerwarsays:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 5:14 pm
‘Ven says:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 5:10 pm
Are we seeing the 7 stages of grief for Gladys
Shock and denial. This is a state of disbelief and numbed feelings.
Pain and guilt. …
Anger and bargaining. …
Depression. …
The upward turn. …
Reconstruction and working through. …
Acceptance and hope.’
______________________
Where does ‘Disappearance’ fit in?
”
Depression
Z,
My prayers are with you at this time.
Cheers.
He may just have picked up a criminal offence today. Not sure what the eligibility rules are for NSW parliament.
lizzie @ #1450 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:06 pm
I was going to add, Rupert Murdoch’s tentacles are global and this sort of evil, co-ordinated shenanigans have his global fingerprints all over it.
lizzie @ #1460 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:25 pm
Brainwashed idiots are a global phenomenon wrt COVID-19 too.
@AlexGreenwhich tweets
Peaceful protest is fundamental to our democracy. What happened in Sydney today was not peaceful, it put lives and livelihoods at risk.
My constituents continue to follow the health rules, and at a great cost. We don’t need these fools coming into Sydney and setting us all backwards.
“When is Hazard going to realise his emergency vaccination is a a teagically stupid move?”
It’s incorrect to imply that the call to ramp up vaccinations as quickly as possible is some Hazzard brain fart.
It was publicly put out there by Dr Chant yesterday. The AMA is strongly behind it (link below), calling on ATAGI to review its AZ advice for younger people, in the absence of Pfizer.
Regardless of what happens with tightening restrictions, or not, it is self evident that the sooner vaccination numbers start to increase, the better. That’s what this blog has been calling for. It can’t start without starting.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/23/australian-medical-association-says-nsw-covid-lockdown-failing-and-urges-change-to-astrazeneca-advice
Zerlo @ #1388 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 4:21 pm
The US team acted like arrogant prats when they entered the stadium last night. USA! USA! USA! What was it with the 15 wide shoulder to shoulder phalanx? It’s not as if there was a dearth of space behind them. No social distancing so good luck with their unvaccinated archers. Some of the ‘stans obviously decided masks weren’t required either. Selfish.
Cat
It’s a hell of a business strategy for Murdoch. Kill off your audience
___________
@Peter_Fitz tweets
The way out of this, is now in our hands.
We have the vaccine necessary to free ourselves much quicker than the late October it looks like now, at best.
All we need is to take the AstraZeneca. Official health advice now onside for over-18.
The other serious point for those living in homes to which the “Freedom Rally” protesters have returned to. Those living in those homes are obviously at risk of contracting Covid. For your sake, their sake & our sake, best to keep well distant & politely ask them to get tested.
We’ve not had any problems with Australia Post couriers or private couriers delivering parcels (except one time). We are the parcel delivery point for ourselves plus daughters and family.
Usually the delivery person (we’ve got to know a few) will drop the parcel, knock or call out and run back to their van. If we reach the door quickly enough we’ll call out “thanks” and everyone is happy.
The stupidity inherent in Hazard’s brain fart is not that more vaccination isn’t a good thing (it is). Rather the stupidity is Hazard apparently believing that its a substitute for an effective lockdown.
But what puzzles me even more is Kerry Chant touting an emergency vaccination as the only possible remaining action that can be taken. She should know better.
Okay, now he’s a dickhead.
a r
He won’t be hard to find and fine.
I’ve had that ‘carding’ experience with quite a few deliveries in years gone by where I knew I was at home for the entire delivery window and yet only got the ‘collect from the post office’ notice afterwards – very annoying, and I don’t doubt the structural issues along with the push to contracting/subcontracting to insecure workers is to blame.
However, a few deliveries recently and all the delivery people have been diligent about ringing and waiting; I thought maybe the pandemic – for the obvious reasons outlined in the article – had forced the delivery companies to crack down on ‘carding’, but maybe I just got lucky.
Berejiklian has put out a short statement about the protestors. Not happy, apparently. Full force of the law.
If the protestors do spread the Virus and that kills someone would that be manslaughter?
Cud Chewer @ #1473 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:36 pm
Your anger is clouding your thinking. Ease up, and stop making shit up. Too much already.
It is not coming from Hazzard.
No one has said it is a substitute for an effective lockdown.
Dr Chant has never said that vaccination is the only possible remaining action, let alone *tout* it.
Dr Chant’s knowledge comes with an impeccable pedigree.
@VictorianCHO tweets
I love freedom. Who doesn’t love freedom? I want freedom from being amongst the over 4 million official (and likely 10 million actual) COVID deaths globally. And freedom from being amongst the over 13 million current active cases. Or millions of current Long COVID cases. 1/
Long COVID doesn’t make you free – debilitating fatigue, ongoing shortness of breath, neurological and psychiatric symptoms for weeks to months. We’ve avoided a huge potential burden of illness in Australia but the 30,000 cases we’ve had still represents so much suffering. 2/
When we prevent illness, the argument seems to go that there isn’t really an issue, so why the restrictions? But this pandemic is far, far from over. New variants could still be catastrophic for much of the world – Australia included. They are hugely challenging to manage. 3/
That’s not a reason a ‘give up’. Letting infections potentially overwhelm our health system will cause illness and death at an awful scale. It also impacts civil liberties and it’s hugely damaging to the economy to have widespread transmission. See: thelancet.com/journals/lance… 4/
We can all argue the merits or otherwise of various approaches to managing transmission, but let’s not pretend that ‘marching for freedom’ will actually deliver the precious freedom that we all need and desire. end/
Don’t remember this person but she has had a career of some sort, she says, and now a protestor.
https://twitter.com/Virg2101
Oh, there you are, Shellbell. 🙂
Uh huh. Figures:
John Ruddick
@JohnRuddick2
Contributor
@SpectatorOz
@SkyNewsAust
.
@LibDemAus
candidate for the federal seat of Warringah.
I think we’re starting to get to the bottom of who is behind the ‘Freedom’ marches today.
NSW Council elections deferred til December.
Shellbell
Thoughtful of her to provide footage of herself and of her accomplices.
I am not sure her wanting her life back is going to be much of a mitigating consideration.
guytaur @ #1467 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:34 pm
It’s why he got presenters on Faux News this week to try and walk both sides of the styreet. It didn’t work, the crazy has become inculcated. Anyway, with gerrymandering he doesn’t have to worry as much.
All of us in Lockdown would like our lives back too. Covidiots/Business Libertarian Anarchists like that woman are preventing US getting our lives back!
“All we want is freedom” yeah, the freedom to cause people to die a horrible death. Nice people.
Outside left @ #1488 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:53 pm
Seriously?
The names Yeppoon , Gympie and Launceston don’t really conjure the image of a World Wide Rally for Freedom 😆
Someone has to step up in NSW and lead …because the wheels are falling off.
Yesterday the white flag was raised by team Gladys as they threw responsibility to Morrison’s vaccine supply – and today we had Hazzard desperately trying to create an ‘us vs them’ narrative.
Are you up for the fight to regain control, Gladys ?
poroti says:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 5:57 pm
“All we want is freedom” yeah, the freedom to cause people to die a horrible death. Nice people.
___________
I have a theory that Swingers make up a significant proportion of the protesters. They suffer disproportionately from lock-downs.
@benraue tweets
The NSW local govt elections delayed until 4 December. Good call. Also hopefully gives me time to finish all the plans I had for the election that had been disrupted by lockdown!
ItzaDream @ #1480 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:46 pm
I’m with CC on this.
Chant has hit a dead end by throwing so desperately to vaccines, rather than going harder on people movement.
Just seems the Hadleys and Fordhams backed by big business are too powerful in NSW.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 6:12 pm
ItzaDream @ #1480 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:46 pm
Cud Chewer @ #1473 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 5:36 pm
Total misrepresentation of what Chant has been saying (of late)
Chant..
“The only control of pandemic is vaccination ( long term) ” true
“Stopping movement is the only way to stop spread of virus now” true
These are not mutually exclusive.
Should the lockdown be firmer.. yes
It is being reported that the three removeralists that brought about Victorian lockdown will now not be charged.
Good bye Daniel Andrews and this joke of a state government.
Some classic Aussie rock,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sorta 🙂
.
PFIZERSTRUCK | ACDC GREATEST HITS | (QUARANTINE EDITION)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqi6gU6GljU