First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
I think this is the key comment, IMO:
My reading is that Palazczsuk had expressed regret at not being able to attend the opening ceremony (not entirely sure why, have you ever had to watch one of those things before?) and Coates decided to “help” her. Or he could just be covering his arse after the fact. Who knows, really?
But I have to admit that my own biases could be influencing me here. Were it a Liberal premier in AP’s shoes, I may well have had a different view.
But anyone at the press conference would’ve seen the glint in my eye.
Really!?! That’s his Get Out of Jail Free card?
So what are we supposed to do now, all get an 8K OLED 75″ TV screen so that we can see the ‘glint’ in people’s eyes to know what they ‘really’ mean!?!
John Coates’ history suggests he is as subtle as a sledgehammer.
Also, how can a surprise be planned?
Someone else tries that line on me all the time.
“You can’t trust them, and therefore …”
Therefore what? Therefore nothing. Not being able to trust someone means their evidence is unreliable, not that you must necessarily take it one way. It just means you need something more reliable before coming to a conclusion.
It’s hard to trust politicians. Yes that’s true. So? They love plotting. Sure, so? Does that mean they always lie? No … it means you assess what they say on the basis of something else. Does that mean they always plot? No … it means you assess what they do on the basis of something else.
We don’t have that *something else* in this situation.
Could Palacek have staged it with Coates. Sure. Did she? I don’t know, but what I do know is that without any other evidence our interpretation is informed by our own biases more than anything else.
Thanks Victoria, there may be a will to prolong the lockdown. But I don’t think I can see anything to say that they will further restrict mobility across Greater Sydney. The good ‘ol “proportionate response”?
In Coates’ defence, it may be that they have the sort of close working relationship where that is just how they joke around with each other, and he didn’t consider how his comments would come across to those without the context.
Not saying that is what happened, just playing devil’s advocate.
Asha
It’s entirely possible that Coates and Palacek get along and he poorly executed an attempt at humour that would have worked had they been in private given some shared context between them, but that most people would have had the sense not to attempt in public because that shared context is inaccessible to an audience.
Who hasn’t attempted humour with their buddies that they would not attempt with others?
:-P.
Coates is now winning the PR battle on this one. Amongst the males, at least.
One thing I can see on that video is her cracking up at the 27 second mark. That’s certainlt the view thos e on TheProjectTV took. The other thing I get is Coates behaving like a pig. And all I see from Coates explanation is his side of the story. When I see or hear Palaszczuk confirming this I will withdraw.
Now as for your lies from yesterday. Let’s deal with them for those who may have missed them:
1) At 1.27 you claimed in response to Andrew_Earlwood that the vaccines weren’t approved until April 2021. This is a lie.
2) At 1.32 was pointed out to you that approval was given respectively on 25/1 and 16/2. Reference, the Health.gov.au site.
3) At 1.35 you responded to me as “Fat Roy” (what was that edict about abuse again WB?) telling us that approval was provisional only. Lie number 2.
4) At 1.44 it was pointed out to you, again from the Health.gov.au site that approval was given on 21/2.
5) At 1.50, you claimed that deliveries did not start until April 2021. Lie number 3.
6) At 2.11 it was proved, yet again by the Health.gov.au site that deliveries began on 15/2 and that Morrison himself received his second dose in March.
7) You then disappeared. Not permanently from this blog, unfortunately.
One thing that lying Torys like you need to understand is that the internet never forgets. Address your lies now.
Lots of comments here are based on personal bias and I have already said mine was. Personal I don’t see a problem with AP attending the opening ceremony other than her commitment not to do so prior to her leaving.
lizzie
The only thing there is to win is the salvaging of his own reputation. So, not much of a win really :P.
I haven’t read any of nath/recon’s comments today, but I disagree with all of them..
Griff
HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO BRING THE CURRENT OUTBREAK UNDER CONTROL?
Our modelling suggests the …
Stage 4 lockdown now put in place will reduce the number of daily cases to five or less (averaged over 14 days) within 5.8 weeks – with a range of 4.6 to 7.5 weeks.
Under Stage 3 restrictions or soft lockdown, we estimate reaching that target number would have taken 8.3 weeks – with a range of five to 14 weeks.
Let’s now hope luck is on NSW’s side again, and the lockdown is more like four weeks than seven weeks.
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/how-long-till-sydney-gets-out-of-lockdown
“There is little doubt that whilst the current strategy of NSW Health has impacted on the course of the epidemic, including their stay-at-home measures, mask policy and trace and track interventions, our modelling indicates more is needed to stop this infectious Delta outbreak,” Professor Hellard said.
“NSW’s current restrictions are approximately equivalent to Victoria’s Stage 3+masks restrictions, so the good news is they still have ‘room to move’ in tightening the public health response. Contact tracing has been beneficial and remains critical.
https://burnet.edu.au/news/1465_likely_stage_4_tighter_restriction_levels_will_be_needed_to_control_the_current_delta_variant_outbreak_in_nsw_new_modelling_shows
Maybe mid October… if restrictions get tighter… Gladys has missed the boat.. again
LvT tells me she never bags other commenters. I believe her..
Torchbearers (Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 11:01 am):
Something like the Fraunhofer Society is indeed what is needed, but that is very complicated to set up as the four Societies/Associations (Max Planck S., Fraunhofer S., Leibniz A., Helmholtz A.) interact in various ways. This is much better than the outmoded CSIRO, however.
https://www.drmirkin.com/histories-and-mysteries/did-roy-orbison-work-himself-to-death.html
See Roy – I think if you name yourself Roy Orbison its not unreasonable to call you Fat Roy or Big Roy. Pls see article above.
Best,
Lars
Why was Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck allowed to go to Tokyo when 2/3s of aged care workers are unvaccinated and COVID infiltrations are in at least 2 Sydney aged care centres?
Did Coates put the Willy up him as well?
My OH worked in Sports management and has dealt with Coates during the Sydney Olympics. He is adamant that he would’ve intended to be lighthearted with someone he knows well. He found him a tough negotiator , great with fundraising and decent to work with.
I might add that I am disgusted by the optics and am not necessarily won over , but I will give benefit of the doubt.
Sprocket he is the minister for sport.
Sceptic,
The restrictions we have in Greater Sydney (bar the 3 LGAs) is more than Stage 3, but less than Stage 4. So it would be somewhere between the yellow and blue curves of the Burnet modelling. Mid-October is as good a guess as any 🙂
I am less confident with the UniMelb modelling. They modelled a reasonable decrease as you mentioned with Stage 3 restrictions. These were put in place in July 9 and we are well past time to see a decrease. The last two days are not looking good and the trend is not our friend.
“ Sounds about right to me though”
It would.
Anastasia has been put in an invidious position by the Mansplaining bore and you’d give HIM the benefit of the doubt.
Face it. Your whole pogrim against Shorten stems from the fact that he chose Collingwood to follow a decade after his boyhood team – South Melbourne – abandoned not only him, but the whole bayside community. You’re hatred is THAt purile and petty.
Fuck off nath.
Answer the questions or you’re a proven liar. It’s all there right in front of you.
And the likes of you don’t get to call me Big Roy or Fat Roy or Dead Roy or anything. I’m sure there are rules and regulations for this site. Read them. Maybe the moderator will read them to you.
Old Spoke @ #1603 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 7:57 pm
This.
Griff
Doesn’t the Burnett graph show specific Sydney stage 3+ Masks as being what we have?
If so …
NSW’s updated restrictions (introduced 9 July) are approximately equivalent to Victoria’s Stage 3+masks restrictions. Our simulation shows Stage 3 + masks restrictions would prevent daily case numbers from increasing further, but are unlikely to be sufficient to eliminate community transmission in an acceptable time frame.
Cactus!
Edit.. & given the Burnett article is 10 days old.. double Cactus
Q&A: “The doctors need not fear being sued. They are indemnified regarding AZ advice. The Prime Minister himself has announced it.”
FFS.
Roy Orbison says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:05 pm
Answer the questions or you’re a proven liar. It’s all there right in front of you.
And the likes of you don’t get to call me Big Roy or Fat Roy or Dead Roy or anything. I’m sure there are rules and regulations for this site. Read them. Maybe the moderator will read them to you.
_________________-
Oh Im sorry this is some sort of belligerent faux cross-examination?
Yeah Australia started vaccinations about 3 months after everybody else – not sure that this is some devastating debating point. Europe and North America started emergency use of vaccines in December because thousands were dying each day.
The rest of your comments are kind of prissy – you pick a hamburger eating and big drinking American fatty who didn’t exercise who was called the “big-O” . If it offends your delicate sensibilities pick a different moniker.
Best,
Lars
Sceptic,
Yes it does. With Stage 3 restrictions, the Uni Melbourne model says “Under Stage 3 restrictions or soft lockdown, we estimate reaching that target number would have taken 8.3 weeks – with a range of five to 14 weeks.” Not sure we are seeing this. I trust the Burnet model more.
“ Yeah so Big Roy – be the bigger guy and withdraw your bellicose post! You demanded evidence – its clearly been provided.”
Why dont you be the bigger man and do a Mia Culpa for the series of lies and mistruths you peddled yesterday afternoon concerning the chronology of the epic ScoMo vaccine rollout clustercuss before you disappeared from the blog for several blissful hours after said lies where exposed, only to reappear ‘after dark’ once you reckoned it had blown over.
Fuck off, Lars.
“ This”
X2
Lizzie @ #1640 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 8:48 pm
It’s how he survived after the Mike Tancred affair. It’s how he has survived and prospered at the IOC. He seems to have convinced you, too.
Poor Andrew – it seems your standard posting is “fuck off”. Surely such a learned member of the Bar, beloved of the Albury small claims and Traffic circuit could be more erudite?
Best,
Lars
Fuck off, Lars.
Good post, Old Spoke
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:11 pm
Yeah Australia started vaccinations about 3 months after everybody else – not sure that this is some devastating debating point. Europe and North America started emergency use of vaccines in December because thousands were dying each day.
___________
Has Morrison made the claim that Pfizer was diverted from Australia due to the situation elsewhere? If not he should. It’s a good argument. I don’t know if it’s true though.
Why is so much time being spent with this marketing so-called “guru” on Q&A?
The virus doesn’t give a shit about Creative Directors.
I DON’T think John Coates has won the PR war. Authoritative observers see it differently:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/coates-reminds-queensland-premier-who-is-in-charge-20210722-p58byt.html
Chip Le Grand
“ Has Morrison made the claim that Pfizer was diverted from Australia due to the situation elsewhere? If not he should. It’s a good argument. I don’t know if it’s true though.”
What is the point of you? You amoeba.
How can you conclude that it a ‘good argument’ if you have no idea whether it is true? perhaps as an exercise of marketing spin and downright lies, I guess. About your speed, isnt it? ScoMo and naff naff. Two peas in a pod.
Look at this pair of clowns. One refuses to acknowledge its litany of lies saying that calling them out and proving them is a debating point and then reserves the right to call someone – sight unseen – fat. Then along comes the other half of the Katzenjammer Kids with a summary of everything the LNP is about. Yes, let’s all come up with an argument that seems like a good idea for Morrison to get over the hole he dug for himself by making a claim that might not be true. Why not? It’s a good argument. Even though we don’t know if it’s true. In other words, why not lie about it?
There is no limit to the depths that these two will take this blog.
Dr Fauci on the Delta Variant and the Unvaccinated:
https://youtu.be/8iYoG8SdX30
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:38 pm
“ Has Morrison made the claim that Pfizer was diverted from Australia due to the situation elsewhere? If not he should. It’s a good argument. I don’t know if it’s true though.”
What is the point of you? You amoeba.
How can you conclude that it a ‘good argument’ if you have no idea whether it is true? perhaps as an exercise of marketing spin and downright lies, I guess. About your speed, isnt it? ScoMo and naff naff. Two peas in a pod.
_______________
It’s a good argument if it’s true. It’s also a good argument if it’s not true and he can get people to believe it. This blog is about politics right? That’s politics.
Roy Orbison says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:38 pm
There is no limit to the depths that these two will take this blog.
_______
Maybe you are right. I just don’t seem to be able to match the intellectual giants on here. Personally, I would think having as many diverse views as possible would be good. But raving fanatics will have it another way.
Naff naff is urging that Morrison ‘should’ peddle an argument that he does not know one way or the other to be true because either it is true or if not true ‘good politics’ provided Morrison can hoodwink the public.
That’s OK, apparently ‘cause ‘politics’. And this blog is all about ‘politics’.
Amoral twat. If anything goes in politics, then what exactly has been the point of your unxious faux pious pogrim against Bill Shorten? Surely, according to your standards, anything goes. So why the incessant Shorten hate? For five fucking tedious years?
No (choose-adjective ) Roy – no lies. Australia started its vaccine roll-out 3 months after the rest of the world.
If you look most of the world which had zero covid – waited to see how it went with the emergency vaccinations. Spin that how you like – but I reckon most people where happy the Australian government waited.
Yeah the supply’s been low and yeah the roll-out’s been slow. Use all the hyberbowl you like. It is picking up and there won’t be an election. Yes I used the health.gov website stats – tell me again how they are lies.
Sorry but no prize for you.
Best,
Lars
According to Murdoch’s Oz:
Murdoch rhetoric to make Morrison look good or can this be verified using vaccination statistics?
“ Personally, I would think having as many diverse views as possible would be good.”
“Diverse” as in how it would be a good idea for ScoMo to recklessly spin possible lies, but anything that bill shorten has done, is purported to have done, or may do at some point in time is worthy of excessive and obsessive hate? That sort of ‘diversity’? I didn’t realise that the empire that is the rupeverse needed that sort of ‘help’ on a small blog by peddling that brand of ‘diversity’.
Fuck off, nath.
I’m guessing Recon applies that criteria to his own arguments on this blog :P.
And given how believable that is, this is a good argument ;-).
Dear L’arse:
given that you are incapable of taking responsibility for your series of lies yesterday afternoon, and are still flannelling, let me be ‘diverse’ and suggest the following:
https://youtu.be/X6n-XRuFmmE
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:56 pm
Naff naff is urging that Morrison ‘should’ peddle an argument that he does not know one way or the other to be true because either it is true or if not true ‘good politics’ provided Morrison can hoodwink the public.
That’s OK, apparently ‘cause ‘politics’. And this blog is all about ‘politics’.
Amoral twat. If anything goes in politics, then what exactly has been the point of your unxious faux pious pogrim against Bill Shorten? Surely, according to your standards, anything goes. So why the incessant Shorten hate? For five fucking tedious years?
_______________
You opened this can so here goes. I don’t like Morrison, not as much as Shorten that’s true.
As for anything goes, I expect it of politicians.
As for Shorten, the truth is that people who represent themselves as union leaders, and then do deals that go against the best interest of their members, well it rubs me up in a bad way, more than other types of skulduggery. I don’t like the aesthetics of it. I find it unpleasing. So that’s my answer.