Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 20 of 36
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  4. OK, off to bed. I shall reflect on the policies mentioned. Mostly financial in nature, which was surprising for me.

    Restriction of life choices is more galling than life restriction perhaps?

  5. Imagine that, employers get enough spam job applications that waste time and resources now meeting the 20 let alone 40.

    Last proper job I applied for took a week to get it all looking right, would be impossible to seriously apply for more than 4 a month.

    As somebody who has had to go through job applications before, it is absolutely frustrating to be inundated with applications from people who clearly are just applying for the sake of fulfilling their jobsearch quota. As you said, a good application takes work. Your cover letter needs to be informative and help explain how the you cover the needs of the employer. Generic “I’m a hard worker” statements are tedious to read and a waste of time. (And no, I never did try to get anyone in trouble for it because I wouldn’t ruin someone’s life like that.)

    Although, let’s be honest: most of that jobsearch amount is usually just names of employers read off job ads without applying for them. Which I don’t judge on: Efficient job search is a quality over quantity thing.

  6. Policy Failure NBN, Telstra, and now that Telstra wants to buy overseas fibre networks for spying on Australian citizens.

    Instead of being a network giant.

  7. Wat Tyler says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:07 am

    Although, let’s be honest: most of that jobsearch amount is usually just names of employers read off job ads without applying for them. Which I don’t judge on: Efficient job search is a quality over quantity thing.
    —————–
    Oh no you are actually wrong there, you have to apply, it gets recorded in the system and you need to keep evidence of the application as the providers go through the lists you also supply names and contact details in case you are audited.

    The apparent latest thing is they want people to apply for jobs through the DSS online system so they can be closer monitored.

    Failure to comply is met with demerits, benefits cut/suspended or cancelled and a good flogging with the cat o nine tailed, shackled and sent to van diemens land (last one isnt true).

    The amount of waste on compliance is phenomenal, if you just ditched the lot and paid basic income support I have a feeling it would work out cheaper

  8. The Federal Government’s policy is to make claiming benefits (paid for by your taxes) such a stressful and demeaning experience that you would rather go hungry or sleep rough than put in a claim.

    The problem isn’t that people don’t want to work. The problem is that the Government chooses to run the economy with an unemployment rate of about 5% in order to suppress wages and worker bargaining power.

  10. Steve777

    Absolutely right, it is designed to wear people out with meaningless tasks and to make it so difficult to get anywhere you just give up any dignity at the door. There is no actual assistance to get jobs, you are required to take anything on offer or penalised, if you leave as it doesn’t work out, penalised, there is the dob in a jobseeker line if you refuse an offer.

    The assumption is that everyone on benefits is a bludger and it is their fault that they choose not to work so the system is compliance model.

    Historically 5% unemployment is very good, the best was in the long boom with <2% unemployment.

    The problem is a fraction of that 5% are long-term unemployed and truly disadvantaged who need the greatest assistance. A further 'reform' was changes to make it near impossible to get a DSP, so loads of people who would have qualified there now have to manage on even more inadequate assistance.

  11. Cud Chewersays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:27 am

    Bezos’s problem is he has too much ego, he literary said that “you paid for this stuff” to his amazon employees.

  14. “Bezos’s problem is he has too much ego, he literary said that “you paid for this stuff” to his amazon employees.”

    I saw that too! Man, how many people wanted to reach out and slap him for that one!?

  15. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:30 am

    Cud Chewersays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:27 am

    Bezos’s problem is he has too much ego, he literary said that “you paid for this stuff” to his amazon employees.
    ———–

    Absolutely an ego race with these billionares rather than space race

    Branson had to go first in his sub orbital space plane
    Bezos goes next is his sub orbital rocket/capsule and higher and longer
    Last I heard
    Musk is going for single handed orbital flight, 10 laps, and do a spacewalk to check on his floating Teslar

  16. Dandy Murray says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:33 am

    Just trying to get a raise out of you, cud.

    Ridiculing Mike Oldfield didn’t seem to work

    ———————

    Fun fact of the day, If is wasn’t for Tubular Bells, Branson wouldn’t have got Virgin records established in 1973 as the success of the album and subsequent releases (Hergest Ridge and Ommadawn) effectively bankrolled him

  17. a r (Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:02 pm):

    Sceptic @ #904 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:55 pm

    Meanwhile NZ second dose is 70% of first dose while in Australia second dose is less than 50% of first dose.

    You’d expect NZ second dose to be higher because they’re using Pfizer. Only a 3 week wait between doses for them.

    AZ has (notionally, at least) a 12 week wait. Our gap lasts longer, so should be proportionally bigger.

    Canada is 62% Pfizer, 32% Moderna and 6% A-Z

    They were 6% fully vaxxed on June 2nd, they’re now (on Jul 20) 51.5% (% of people 12 and over)

    For at least one dose, it was 59% on June 2nd, now 70.4%

    It was the 59% at least one dose / 6% fully vaxxed point on June 2nd that was key – this allowed them to floor the accelerator and as a result they are one of the few countries with over 50% vaxxed that are still rising quickly.

    Basically, they devised an almost optimal approach and have executed it more or less exactly – completely clear, straightforward information etc.

  20. Fumbles

    The thing about that Tesla that’s now in an orbit that takes it past Mars is that the car was originally promised to one of the real founders of Tesla. But then Elon basically stole it and in an act of sheer bastardry, sent it into space.

  21. @Cud

    There are would be a number of benefits if Mr and Mrs Oldfield told their spotty 17yo to stop playing with guitars and do your A levels or get a job like normal parents.

    A better soundtrack for the Omen movie for one

  23. @cud

    Yeah it was number 1 of the line and he did it for spite. Well if it is off to mars he can catch it up there when sending that colony mission he plans, that would be a good deed for all society.

  26. Incidentally I was thinking earlier about where to get the most leverage out of a vaccine and it occurred to me that the theoretical “herd immunity” level (whatever that is.. 75%.. 85% or whatever) assumes everyone is equivalent in terms of behaviour.

    When actually, its the people who are most physically mobile and meet the most other people that contribute the most to re-infection. In other words 20s and 30s.

    Now if you combine that with a no-vaccine, no entry policy (for social venues, pubs, clubs, night spots) you could get to a very high rate of vaccination in this age group.

    So, that kind of policy is well worth thinking about.

  28. Oh no you are actually wrong there, you have to apply, it gets recorded in the system and you need to keep evidence of the application as the providers go through the lists you also supply names and contact details in case you are audited.

    Oh I stand corrected.

    When I worked in DES a few years back, it was a bit more tolerant. As a consultant, I was responsible for checking on the job search of my clients but other than people just entering jibberish, nonsense placeholder text or entering the same jobs in every month, I generally left things alone. As far as we were concerned, that number was to satisfy Centrelink, we were more interested in the specifics of each case and tailoring our services to their needs than just policing their job search. We were more interested in the jobs they are applying for, so we could build a bit of an understanding of what kind of professional identity they see in themselves. And I would never ring an employer to check if they’ve really applied because, besides the ethical privacy considerations, it sabotages the jobseeker as that employer is left with the impression the applicant is untrustworthy and needs checking on.

    I should state I did work for a non-profit agency, so we weren’t burdened with hard number KPIs, so it gave us a bit more flexibility.

    But that was back then, I guess. Such a joke of a system.

  29. @Wat Tyler

    A lot does depend on the provider as that is where the compliance is but the new preference to use their job search portal which automatically stores application info is getting on a bit strong. I guess it comes down to the Threat of action if tasks are not complete and randomly audited.

    More providers I speak to are thinking of not re tendering for contracts as the work is now all compliance and minimal assistance so not worth the returns in money or time.

  30. Decades of unemployed people being demonised (e.g. ACA reports of “dole bludgers sitting around at home getting stoned and going to the beach while the rest of us real Australians work for our money”) has conditioned us to punch down economically. When you’re working hard and still barely making ends meet, it’s easier to give into envy and resentment and want unemployed people kicked up the bum because they’re having a “taxpayer funded holiday” (which they are most definitely not) than to get angry at the people who are keeping their wages low but still happy to increase costs of living according to inflation.

    I suppose it’s not uniquely Australian either. Reagan got a bit of mileage in the 70s and 80s pushing the myth that welfare recipients were splurging on fancy goods (and neglecting their hungry kids of course) and of course, being American, it was also very racially coded too.

    EDIT: I have even seen people on here (Labor supporters, not the Coalition supporters who you would expect it from) demonise “dole bludgers” in the past. And I am ashamed to say many years ago, under a different username, I used to get mileage of making fun of a conservative poster on here by suggesting they were on the dole and applying the stigma attached to that. I genuinely feel guilty for doing that back then.

  33. Cud Chewer (Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 12:54 am):

    EGT

    Where did you get those breakdowns from?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-fully-vaccinated-covid?country=CAN
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=~CAN

    Two dose vaccination is a two stage pipeline – and the bane of pipelines is stalls: avoid stalling the pipeline (by assuring the supplies arrive when they’re needed – not after nor before) and the throughput doubles

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SAxtf-RTg

    Two dose plus third booster, that’s a three stage pipeline – triple the throughput if you get it right…

  35. @Wat

    It is a nasty neo-liberal trait to demonise the disadvantaged, what did we have the so called lifters and leaners or something

    If ACA isn’t onto the unemployed, I remember a great front line send up, then it’s is those on disability.

    Not just the US, UK under Thatcher was just as nasty with those on welfare despite economic restructuring resulting in 2 million unemployed in the early 80s

    The Compassionate Society was slowly and quietly euthanised from 1975 onwards here

  37. Wat Tyler says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 1:21 am

    Dr Fumbles, I really do appreciate your input on this topic. It’s good to hear from someone with a bit of direct knowledge on the topic. Thank you.
    ———
    No problem, been in the employment business for years as a researcher, policy grunt, evaluator of programs, public sector operator and dealt with providers so have a vested interest in the subject. Also did programs for long term unemployed and highly disadvantaged and have even been a client but i refer to that experience as mystery shopper work.

  38. Wat Tyler says:

    EDIT: I have even seen people on here (Labor supporters, not the Coalition supporters who you would expect it from) demonise “dole bludgers” in the past. And I am ashamed to say many years ago, under a different username, I used to get mileage of making fun of a conservative poster on here by suggesting they were on the dole and applying the stigma attached to that. I genuinely feel guilty for doing that back then.
    —————
    I have heard awful things from nominally ‘left’ people, when I was in IR an old mate of mine who votes labor but is a total $$ obsessed, selfish bastard (but doesnt see it that way of course) was saying how great the restructure was as he could get rid of the certain people he didnt like in the division.

    I basically called him a fucking idiot.

    Being an IR person and union delegate I pointed out that the process was to change positions and not remove under performers as that is why we have performance management, and if you cant do it there it is poor management.

    So yeah pretends to be left by voting labor and getting choked up about ‘issues’ but then happily takes his tax cut, counts how much $$ he inherits with shares and never gives anything to anyone without something in return

    All good things come around and a couple of years later he was the one looking at being made redundant due to a manager not liking him and wanting union advice – i said maybe they want to get rid of dead wood (he wasnt a union member)

  39. Bad news for the ALP,

    The fix is in, New Ltd is turning on Scotty. I wonder if he’ll last to the end of the year. The next sitting period could be very interesting for the lnp.

  42. Zerlo,
    I agree, it just means working on a new narrative for the ALP. Other Lib players havn’t been as in focus as Sfm so maybe a quick change, sugar hit and an early election.

    Anyway it’s more fun to speculate about this than then reflect on the covid stuff.

  43. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/20/proposed-secrecy-law-journalism-spying-home-office-public-interest-whistleblowing

    Here we go again. Nearly 50 years ago one of us was arrested under the Official Secrets Act for working on a story for Time Out magazine, where the other one of us was the news editor. This led to the so-called ABC case, named after fellow reporter Crispin Aubrey, a brave ex-soldier whistleblower called John Berry, and the aforesaid Campbell. A lengthy Old Bailey trial followed in 1978 and, with it, a major discrediting of the use of the act against the press.

    Soon after, the power of the pre-first world war, empire-era secrecy laws sank further when a jury acquitted the late Clive Ponting, a senior civil servant who sent MPs information about government deception during the Falklands war. A hasty law reform flopped in 2004 when evidence against the GCHQ whistleblower Katharine Gun had to be withdrawn at the last minute. The government feared her trial would reveal that it had been told the Iraq war would be illegal.

    The Home Office now wants harder and more extensive secrecy laws that would have the effect of deterring sources, editors and reporters, making them potentially subject to uncontrolled official bans not approved by a court, and punished much more severely if they do not comply. In noisy political times, a government consultation issued two months ago has had worryingly little attention. Although portrayed as countering hostile activity by state actors, the new laws would, if passed, ensnare journalists and sources whose job is reporting “unauthorised disclosures” that are in the public interest.

    Endorsed by the home secretary, Priti Patel, the consultation argues that press disclosures can be worse than spying, because the work of a foreign spy “will often only be to the benefit of a single state or actor”.

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