Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. And if you want to be be really depressed, read this …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/21/coalition-believes-it-has-numbers-to-stop-great-barrier-reef-being-listed-as-in-danger

    Bahrain, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Ethiopia, Hungary, Mali, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, had indicated “they would like to co-author/co-sponsor” an amendment supporting Australia’s position.

    As I have said before – just like people, you can tell the character of a country by the company it keeps … 🙁

  2. A major Texas hospital system has reported its first case of the lambda COVID-19 variant, as the state reels from the rampant delta variant.

    Houston Methodist Hospital, which operates eight hospitals in its network, said the first lambda case was confirmed Monday.

    The lambda variant was first detected in Peru in December 2020, according to the World Health Organization and makes up 81% of COVID-19 cases sequenced in the country since April 2021, according to a June WHO report. Currently, WHO designates lambda as a “variant of interest.”

  3. Neil McMahon
    @NeilMcMahon
    ·
    2m
    Hamish Macdonald to be official co-host of (and reporter for) @TheProjectTV
    . PVO back to his regular job as political editor for @10NewsFirst
    after doubling up with Project hosting duties two nights a week.

  4. Does anyone else agree that the “weather crises” have been increasing lately? Floods, fires, landslides coming in groups rather than singly?

    The insurance industry seems to think so.

  5. a rsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:12 am
    So much effort spent on empty symbolism and PR, so little spent on actually trying to save the reef.
    ________________
    Can it be saved? From what I’ve read there’s more that can be done in relation to run off, but as for the temp rise, what is to be done?

  6. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 8:39 am
    The primary case of delta coronavirus in S.A. was not caught in Argentina but in hotal quarantine in Gladystan.
    _____________________
    Are we going to have an inquiry into Hotel Quarantine failures in NSW?


  7. Zerlosays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:03 am
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 7:52 am

    Actually there is flooding in China right now so I know it’s not fake news.

    My posted is not related to that

  8. UK Cartoons:

    Peter Brookes on Boris Johnson’s ‘get Covid and live longer’ #BorisJohnson #DominicCummings #Covid_19

    Ben Jennings on Boris Johnson’s ‘get Covid and live longer’ #ArrestBorisJohnson #Covid_19

    Brian Adcock on #ArrestBorisJohnson #dominiccummings #Covid_19 #HeatWave2021

    Patrick Blower on #FreedomDay #Pingdemic #DeltaVariant #EndingLockdown #COVID19

    Christian Adams @ALWCinderella #cinderella @EveningStandard #cartoon #pingdemic #BorisJohnson

    PAUL THOMAS on the PM’s isolation

  9. Recon @ #60 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:16 am

    Can it be saved?

    Probably not. All the more reason to not hide the truth behind pointless PR games. You can better and more honestly promote tourism on the reef with a “see it now, before it’s gone forever!” campaign.

    but as for the temp rise, what is to be done?

    Some people are trying to selectively breed more heat-tolerant corals, so there’s that.

    And then there’s all the usual things that the Coalition will never do; indefinite moratorium on all new coal/gas/oil projects, shut down all fossil-fired power stations, make all private vehicles electric, support a global price on carbon, create some new kind of algae that can float around, soak up CO2, and then sink to the bottom of the ocean with it, etc., etc..


  10. a rsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:09 am
    Ven @ #17 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 7:58 am

    Again what has Albanese done wrong to get “Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. “

    There are so many things he could be taking the fight to the Coalition on, and he’s mostly not.

    But probably it’s just MoE stuff in the poll.

    My point about that rhetorical question is that Albanese did not do anything wrong and he remained on message in last one month.

    So it is hard for me to believe this opinion poll or half of the people in Australia are behaving like Trump supporters.

  11. Morning all and thanks BK for the roundup.

    As Confessions pointed out, NSW has only today really entered a proper lockdown. Yet Gladys claims to be acting on “medical advice”. This article by Michael West points out that NSW is the only state not to publish the State health department advice.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-business-of-covid-gladys-berejiklian-hides-the-health-advice-as-pandemic-threatens-sydney/?fbclid=IwAR2kqlglHhedc9y9GjxsxcpN4GpPG2pXbAiQ2LppcVS1RLGLuwAGBKKPrUI

  12. Ven says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:19 am

    Yes it does, obviously it is related, because I don’t blame others it’s fact.

  13. Word on the Coffs Jetty is that the close contact event that goosed the local COVID response (and so oddly flagged by the local Nat MP, Gurmesh Singh) was a construction worker from Sydney who came up as part of the local flagship development site of Shoreline – in the Park Beach part of Coffs. A subcontractor, brought up by the local Nats/Development mafia, who was put up (alone?) in a local apartment and got his booze from the Hoey Moey (the local AHA flagship) would neatly explain why this fizzled as an outbreak (no local transmission) – and why the diversionary flak had to be deployed. Can’t have The Rodent’s Tradie’s traduced – far better to burn the local Nat mafia stooge.

  14. @BuklbooJohn
    ·
    35m
    Received an email from a friend in Adelaide saying that strange behavior going on ABC Radio regular presenters been taken of air and replaced by no name fill ins.looks like Corona is in the building.has emailed asking Whats going on? Won’t answer his email..

  15. So f’ing sick of the spin. Morrison says faster vaccine rollout wouldn’t make a difference to these lockdowns as nobody has ever said we were going to get to 70% vaccinated by now.

    F me you f’ing a hole. Utterly unrelated – a Howard trick.

    A faster rollout with more Pfizer would have and should have meant at least 50% with one dose and yes indeedee doo that would make a bloody difference, you suckhole. You are last of 38. Last. Dead last. And we voted this useless spiteful whiny little loser in. Shame on us.

  16. Bruce Haigh
    @bruce_haigh
    ·
    8m
    #auspol No apologies from Morrison on vaccinations and stand alone quarantine. The grub doubled down on ABCRN. He lied on numbers vaccinated in age care.
    I will get Maxwell’s silver hammer and tap it on his skull – we want stand alone quarantine and better organised vaccines.

  17. a rsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:24 am
    Recon @ #60 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:16 am

    Can it be saved?

    Probably not. All the more reason to not hide the truth behind pointless PR games. You can better and more honestly promote tourism on the reef with a “see it now, before it’s gone forever!” campaign.

    but as for the temp rise, what is to be done?

    Some people are trying to selectively breed more heat-tolerant corals, so there’s that.

    And then there’s all the usual things that the Coalition will never do; indefinite moratorium on all new coal/gas/oil projects, shut down all fossil-fired power stations, make all private vehicles electric, support a global price on carbon, create some new kind of algae that can float around, soak up CO2, and then sink to the bottom of the ocean with it, etc., etc..

    Being an acquaintance with some of those folks trying to breed out more heat tolerant corals, it’s really an attempt at the margins to try and stave off complete loss.

    Neither the LNP nor Labor parties appear willing or able to undertake any serious efforts of what you’ve outlined.
    Both are literally beholden to their carbon club donors and sponsors and have former fossil fuel executives on staff.

    I know blind ignorance is preferable to many bludgers when it comes to posting links to information, but as posted previously, this 350.org report lays out clearly the kind of corporate capture that fossil fuel companies play at with politics in Australia with both Lib and Lab parties.

    Captured State – The influence of the gas lobby on WA
    https://world.350.org/perth/files/2020/11/Captured-State-Report.pdf

  18. Player One @ #52 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:10 am

    And if you want to be be really depressed, read this …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/21/coalition-believes-it-has-numbers-to-stop-great-barrier-reef-being-listed-as-in-danger

    Bahrain, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Ethiopia, Hungary, Mali, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, had indicated “they would like to co-author/co-sponsor” an amendment supporting Australia’s position.

    As I have said before – just like people, you can tell the character of a country by the company it keeps … 🙁

    How many smacks can one gob sustain. Truly obscene tactics, and nothing to do with the welfare if the reef. Surprise me not.

  19. a rsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:24 am
    Recon @ #60 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:16 am

    And then there’s all the usual things that the Coalition will never do; indefinite moratorium on all new coal/gas/oil projects, shut down all fossil-fired power stations, make all private vehicles electric, support a global price on carbon, create some new kind of algae that can float around, soak up CO2, and then sink to the bottom of the ocean with it, etc., etc..
    _______________________________
    I agree the PR efforts are pathetic. You would think admitting the problem might open some overseas funding too.

    If it is irreparable it seems to me that preserving the species of coral is vitally important. Perhaps artificial reefs further south might be an answer.

  20. lizzie @ #70 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:36 am

    @BuklbooJohn
    ·
    35m
    Received an email from a friend in Adelaide saying that strange behavior going on ABC Radio regular presenters been taken of air and replaced by no name fill ins.looks like Corona is in the building.has emailed asking Whats going on? Won’t answer his email..

    Yesterday in Melbourne La Trioli was missing on air, but the fill in clearly stated that she was getting a test or awaiting results.

  21. Fact check required!

    The Prime Minister also defended comments he made earlier in the year, saying that the vaccination rollout was “not a race”.

    “When that was said by Professor Murphy and I … we were talking about the regulation of vaccines, that the vaccines had gone through proper approval authorities,” he said.

    So it was about approval of vaccine not administering doses?

  22. Sceptic

    Does Scotty now have his spinners poring back through everything he has said as PM, to bring out explanations of what he “really meant”?

    I didn’t realise the poor pet is so sensitive!

  23. Sceptic @ #78 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:48 am

    Fact check required!

    The Prime Minister also defended comments he made earlier in the year, saying that the vaccination rollout was “not a race”.

    “When that was said by Professor Murphy and I … we were talking about the regulation of vaccines, that the vaccines had gone through proper approval authorities,” he said.

    So it was about approval of vaccine not administering doses?

    No fact checking required. You know it’s a lie because Morrison said it.

  24. Sceptic. It is BS. He said vaccines aren’t a race so they can be careful with giving approvals. His belief that vaccines aren’t a race still stands outside that context and explains purchase and rollout issues. 38/38 says it all. Monumental fail.

    You either get high vaccination rates fast or tighter quarantine. You can’t defend both failures.

  25. Sceptic @ #78 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 7:48 am

    Fact check required!

    The Prime Minister also defended comments he made earlier in the year, saying that the vaccination rollout was “not a race”.

    “When that was said by Professor Murphy and I … we were talking about the regulation of vaccines, that the vaccines had gone through proper approval authorities,” he said.

    So it was about approval of vaccine not administering doses?

    Yes, Murphy has said this in the past and it checks out, but Morrison when he first started using it was referring to the vaccine roll out, so it seems now he has accepted the truth of Murphy’s original statement and stopped bullshitting on this point.

  26. SMH
    The pandemic has been notable for its abuse of the term “Orwellian”, but this turnaround – “we are first in line; it is not a race” – really did bring to mind the doublethink of 1984: “The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

  27. Quoll

    I suggest your very framing of the issues is part of a larger failure. I notice that in your last few posts you have not resorted to personal abuse. Nevertheless it is a feature of your posts that the decibel levels are extremely high, as are the repetitions of your basic messages. These may be manifestations of a gut feeling on your part that you are, in fact, an integral part of a failed, and doomed, political strategy.

    The Greens Party evolved from an environment movement that was highly successful in trading off sustained environmental gains in return for support during elections. I was there. Wet Tropics World Heritage is an example.

    The Greens Party as a mechanism for applying politics to achieve environmental outcomes is, by way of demonstrable contrast, a complete failure over the past 30 years.

    The structural problem is that the environmental vote is not in play for the majors. There is no electoral gain for either of the two major parties in trying to out-compete the Greens for the environment vote.

    The result is that those environmentalists who have tied the fate of the environment to the Greens Party have failed for 30 years. Arguably, they will continue to fail for long enough for it not to matter even if they do eventually succeed. The planet will be cooked. The Anthropocene Extinction Event will have happened.

    In other words, none of your fulminations about the Reef – regardless of their cognitive and ethical merits – are making or will make a skerrick of difference to the Reef.

    A further structural impediment with the formation of the Greens Party was that it immediately attracted radicals who were happy to use the Greens Party as a Front Organization. The direct consequence of this is that the Greens are saddled with a set of policies that around 90% of Australians are opposed to. I include, for example, the virtual destruction of the ADF’s capacity to do anything other than get slaughtered in the next war.

    I therefore suggest that the Greens Party disestablishes and that all Greens members who are environmentalists join Labor. I see no politically practical alternative.

  28. Wally has been flushed out, hyped up with re-writing history.

    And this denying of the ‘It’s not a race’ utterance will bite him on the bum *

    * see Streisand Theory


  29. Simon Katichsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:36 am

    A faster rollout with more Pfizer would have and should have meant at least 50% with one dose and yes indeedee doo that would make a bloody difference, you suckhole. You are last of 38. Last. Dead last. And we voted this useless spiteful whiny little loser in. Shame on us.

    Fool me once shame on you
    Fool me twice shame on me
    Fool me thrice I am a fool

  30. Goodness me, you guys have your heads in the sand with respect to the UNESCO and the Reef. I dare say that I am the only Bludger who has actually had any direct experiences of UN processes. It was an eye opener.

    There are a set of actions that Australia can and does make to ensure Reef resilience. This includes nutrient run off, acid water infiltration, COTs campaigns, fisheries exclusion zones and the like. While much remains to be done, in these respects the Reef is probably the BEST managed in the world.

    The other issue is the Reef is endangered by global warming, rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
    This is, IMO, beyond doubt.

    BUT. The UNESCO committee which formulated the endangered recommendation is chaired by China.
    Here where the truly corrupt nature of UNESCO processes kicks in. One of the ‘reasons’ given for putting the recommendation forward is that Australia is not doing enough to reduce carbon emissions.

    BUT BUT BUT… It is China 28% and the US 14% which are the main players driving the global warming that is ACTUALLY going to kill the Reef. Australia’s contribution to global warming is strictly at the margins. (This is NOT an argument for Australia to avoid zero 2050, BTW.)

    Those Bludgers who enjoy a bit more of a broader view might also spare a thought for what China is doing to the South China Sea coral reefs by way of massive over-fishing, dredging, construction, land fill, sewage outfalls, and the like. Corrupt? Cynical?

    But hey.

  31. I remember woy woy as being a permanent ghost town. Famous for two things – being the last station before the tunnel (and almost as dark and dingy) and Spike.


  32. Scepticsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:48 am
    Fact check required!

    The Prime Minister also defended comments he made earlier in the year, saying that the vaccination rollout was “not a race”.

    “When that was said by Professor Murphy and I … we were talking about the regulation of vaccines, that the vaccines had gone through proper approval authorities,” he said.

    So it was about approval of vaccine not administering doses?

    If it is not a race to approve vaccines, can we administer vaccines without approval because by implication it is a race?

  33. Why the change of tact at fox channel. Even the morning crew have gone on a please get vaccinated if you can and of course check with your doctor etc etc

    Sean Hannity hits the panic button

    palmerreport.com
    10:01 AM · Jul 21, 2021·palmerreport

    Sean Hannity hits the panic button

    palmerreport.com
    10:01 AM · Jul 21, 2021·palmerreport

  34. boerwar @ #91 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:09 am

    Those Bludgers who enjoy a bit more of a broader view might also spare a thought for what China is doing to the South China Sea coral reefs by way of massive over-fishing, dredging, construction, land fill, sewage outfalls, and the like. Corrupt? Cynical?

    Whataboutism at its finest.

    The reef is our responsibility, not China’s.

  35. Didn’t Morrison conjoin his ‘It’s not a race’ with his abandonment of targets for the vaccination rollout?
    ——————
    Get that quote and you win a PB Walkley

  36. Fox and friends almost had a fight about it. Doocy (of all people) was very direct – ‘get vaccinated, save your life’. Kilmaede was an abomination saying ‘don’t listen to the gov, do your own research’ but at least admitted he got vaccinated.

  37. Good Morning

    I see Borewar is still on the Murdoch mission to destroy the Greens.

    _____________________

    Good to see the snap lockdowns in regional areas of NSW. At least the Sydney mistakes are not being repeated.

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