First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
Sceptic @ #895 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:42 pm
I’ve yet to be convinced that that twat(1) has realised anything. But I’ve an open mind 🙂
Biggest policy stuff ups – entering WWI and ripping up tram networks.
Recon
You could add subsidising ALL inefficient local industry with Tariffs for about 75 years..and we all know who made the biggest changes to trade policy, hint is it was in 1974 and then after 1985
How about strangling the burgeoning computer in the 60s by directing the CSIRO research into wool
Turning Universities into degree factories by defunding research budgets
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:47 pm
Attempting to sell Public Transport in NSW.
Interesting that several posters looked to financial policy failures.
I would have to have explained to me the impact of the provision of commercial rates for resumption of property. Is it purely financial?
But yes, as to financial, the drive to privatisation would be difficult to argue for the affirmative.
Zerlo
When it comes to privatization it depends on how its structured because government doesn’t need to directly run a service to control it.
Meanwhile NZ second dose is 70% of first dose while in Australia second dose is less than 50% of first dose.
A monumental fail
Great Barrier Reef
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/21/coalition-believes-it-has-numbers-to-stop-great-barrier-reef-being-listed-as-in-danger
Australia’s global lobbying offensive to keep the Great Barrier Reef off the world heritage “in danger” list has secured support from at least nine of the 21-member committee that will make the decision, according to a diplomatic email seen by Guardian Australia.
Australia’s Paris-based ambassador to Unesco, Megan Anderson, said in the email she believed the government had won enough support to delay the decision on the “in danger” listing until at least 2023.
A tourist snorkelling at the Great Barrier Reef
Unesco says ‘in danger’ listing would be ‘call to action’ on Great Barrier Reef
Read more
It was sent on Saturday, shortly after the start of a two-week World Heritage Committee meeting in China that will decide whether to change the reef’s world heritage status. A decision on the reef is expected on Friday.
The federal environment minister, Sussan Ley, was due to return to Australia overnight from an eight-day lobbying trip that included flights to Hungary, France, Spain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Oman and the Maldives.
——
Btw, this is hypercracy, when boewar complains about China burning coal.
Agreed, WWI resulted in the worst Australian fatalities of any external war.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:52 pm
In my experience, the government needs to run it, a private sector will just burn it.
When they changed to Sunday timetables, just over the weekend, things went chaos.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:44 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Transurban and Macquarie are different companies and the Victorian department of transport runs the pubic transport system so all the private operators does is operate the system but they are answerable to the department.
—-
Yes I am aware of that, Macquarie funded the project and made a fortune, Transurban runs it and makes equal fortunes due to the operation of the contract, it has been tolled for 20 plus years and no end in sight.
DoT runs the system, but the franchising model is a total waste of money, the costs of franchising, monitoring and subsidising the operators is about the same as having a public asset but without the incentives to improve the system and disincentives for public benefit maximising operation..
Example of vline freight, which became Freight (Vitoria) Australia and now part of Pacific National – Assests get sent elsewhere from Victoria, PN Controls access to the infrastructure and thus limits new entrants and competition due to access fees.
Zerlo
Victorian pubic transport timetables are set by the department not the operators.
Griff @ #905 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:50 pm
Probably. Is there a better method to compensate an asset holder?
Sceptic @ #904 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:55 pm
You’d expect NZ second dose to be higher because they’re using Pfizer. Only a 3 week wait between doses for them.
AZ has (notionally, at least) a 12 week wait. Our gap lasts longer, so should be proportionally bigger.
With public transport, ideology overcame the reality
There was meant to be competition in the running of the lines, remember we had Bayside trains and hill side trains at one time, running of completely different parts of the net work.
Then we had 2 different types of rolling stock ordered that were incompatible.
In the end the whole thing has gone back to one operator after connex gave up.
Dont forget the same was done to the tram network.
And why was they system privatised???
To break the RBTU and Petro
To reduce the size of the public sector workforce
To reduce direct budgetary costs
Policy failures?
Costello’s changes to individual capital gains tax discounts, to make them a 50 per cent discount on capital gains on assets held for at least 12 months, rather than inflation.
It’s borked the allocation of capital across the whole nation.
Flaneur,
If we are talking economics, I’m the first to admit to being an amateur. If we are talking legal remedies, again an amateur.
I don’t know if there is a better way. There are certainly other ways of course. I am also thinking that property entitlements differ according to title?
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:59 pm
Zerlo
Victorian pubic transport timetables are set by the department not the operators.
—–
The operators did have a fun interpretation of timetables at one stage, to avoid the late running penalties (+-10mins was late) we had the infamous skipping stations and cancelling services as it was cheaper to do it. Perverse incentives
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Jeff and co had some strange ideas about competition because just how were two tram operators running different routes meant to compete.
Could go for a counter-factual history approach to failures
Worst policy ideas proposed that would have been colossal failures
“Worst policy ideas proposed that would have been colossal failures”
Melbourne to Sydney HSR.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Sydney and Melbourne dodged a few planning decisions that would have been failures.
Another Kennett one was casemix funding in hospitals.
Victorian pubic transport timetables
I can’t help but remember the birds and the bees talk from Dan:
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:59 pm
NSW Transport decided to change timetables on basis of the health advice or claiming to do so..
Dandy Murray says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:05 pm
Policy failures?
Costello’s changes to individual capital gains tax discounts, to make them a 50 per cent discount on capital gains on assets held for at least 12 months, rather than inflation.
It’s borked the allocation of capital across the whole nation.
+1
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:07 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Jeff and co had some strange ideas about competition because just how were two tram operators running different routes meant to compete.
————–
Was same as the trains
The theory was about service improvement and to drive down the costs of actually bidding for the operations contracts.
At least with power/gas there was an actual market to sell these things to anyone but doing that creates more layers of rent seekers
Operators
Market regulators
Retailers
and so on when all this was internal
Dandy Murray says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:11 pm
“Worst policy ideas proposed that would have been colossal failures”
Melbourne to Sydney HSR.
Rudd’s RSPT
Some dogey ones I came across
The push for Nuclear Weapons in the 60s
Dredging the Barrier reef with explosives – 80s idea from Joh??
Griff @ #917 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 11:06 pm
I’m in the same boat. I *know* (for certain values of *know*) what’s right, just hoped you could let me in on what’s de rigueur.
Fleneur,
It we are both at sea, we had best procure a pea-green boat.
RE: Biggest policy failures
Add abandoning fibre to the premises NBN……nice 50-100 billion down the toilet.
The early deregulation of Telecom when we has optus as competition and they had to duplicate the cable network for TV
Griff @ #931 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 11:24 pm
I’d be honoured to serve.
lizzie @ #462 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 12:03 pm
You might have studied under Tolkien. 😆
Dandy
I wouldn’t say “colossal”. Its just not the best use for the technology.
More recent ones is the First Home Buyers/Builders subsidies – really helped boost asset values
Reliance on monetary policy settings for too long, a difficult task to get just right, too hard on the lever we end up in 1991-2, to lax on the lever and we end up with runaway asset prices like now, what will did you think would happen giving out <2% mortgages
The overriding objective of controlling inflation at all costs, not a big issue really since 1992 but at the cost of wages, productivity. Of course you can change the method of how you measure inflation.
Dr Fumbles
“At least with power/gas there was an actual market to sell these things to anyone but doing that creates more layers of rent seekers
Operators
Market regulators
Retailers
and so on when all this was internal”
The state energy board bankruptcies were internal too, right?
No need! We shall away and I shall bring a runcible spoon!
@Dandy Murray
The state energy board bankruptcies were internal too, right?
——–
The SEC wasn’t bankrupt, neither was the Gas and Fuel corp thats why the assets found good buyers
Some other things went so well run in Vic
State Bank anyone??
OK Lars you are repeating Liberal-Murdoch memes / lies / crap. You are a tiny part of the Noise Machine.
CPRS: had that continued we would have been in a far better position to thrive in a decarbonising world. We’d have a far bigger renewables sector providing lots of jobs. A far bigger failure is the Coalition government’s complete lack ofany coherent policy to address emission reduction.
Pink Batts: remember to GFC? No? That’s because we avoided recession in Australia because of well-targeted stimulus spending like the Home Insulation Program. Sadly, industrial accidents occurred, largely as a result of dodgy private operators ignoring State OH&S laws. There were a number of prosecutions. Allowing unemployment to go into double figures, as the Coalition would have done, would have caused far more suffering – and deaths.
Medicare Gold- irrelevant – never implemented. Nowhere near as bad as the vandalism wrought on the Budget by Howard and Costello.
ID Card – irrelevant, never implemented.
Mandatory Income Management/Basics Card for all welfare recipients.
Pretty much every “tightening of the screws” ever proposed in relation to welfare.
I suppose that’s also in the “has been” and “would be” columns of failures.
@Wat Tyler
Robodebt
Independent assessment of the NDIS
Turning the CES into Job Network that is just an enforcement squad, mutual obligations, 20 plus jobs per month and meetings with providers, work for the dole
Dr Fumbles
Completely agree.
And on the “20 per month” part, remember that amount is a compromise as well: they wanted it to be 40.
Griff @ #939 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 11:42 pm
“O lovely Pussy (*)! O Pussy(*), my love,
What a beautiful Pussy(*) you are,
You are,
You are!
What a beautiful Pussy (*) you are!”
(*) Not sure which meaning the “shock, horror! alurums!” crowd would allow.
Workchoices
Victoria own workhoices in 1992 – no state awards, all individual bargaining, minimal basic entitlements. That mess took 15 years to clean up.
Should I add a twat(1) to that?
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:50 pm
Dr Fumbles
Completely agree.
And on the “20 per month” part, remember that amount is a compromise as well: they wanted it to be 40.
——————–
Imagine that, employers get enough spam job applications that waste time and resources now meeting the 20 let alone 40.
Last proper job I applied for took a week to get it all looking right, would be impossible to seriously apply for more than 4 a month.
Numerology is never certain 🙂
Bit more on the abstract and philosophical side: I am glad the 1951 Communism ban referendum failed. I feel that would have been a bad idea. Not only is it undemocratic by nature but it opens a bottle for debates about other ideas we don’t like being banned, the definition of Communism can be stretched and it just drives dedicated Communists underground and would have made them even more likely to cooperate with Soviet intelligence back in the day. I get I have the benefit of hindsight and didn’t live through the red scares but I’m still glad that was an idea that didn’t get up.