Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Simon, hating the occupiers is one thing, actively organizing violent resistance against them is quite another.

    Generally, most ordinary people just want to muddle along with their lives peacefully and with some semblance of order. And if that has to be done with despised occupiers, then so be it.

    To have the level of insurgency and violence against the US occupiers that we saw (and remembering most Iraqis were pretty happy Saddam was gone) – a lot of things had to go badly wrong. And for that to happen, it required some world class incompetence by the occupiers. Basically a perfect storm of fuck-ups by the Americans. I have no doubt that the vast majority of Iraqis wanted to live in peace with the American occupiers and let them try and rebuild their country. The fact that so many good and ordinary Iraqis joined the insurgency and/or violent marauding mobs cannot be dismissed simply as a case of freedom-loving citizens, the fire of liberty in their bellies, naturally taking up arms against the occupiers. Mostly it was a case of desperate and hopeless ordinary people forced into a terrible corner – as a result of the aforementioned fuck-upery of the occupiers.

    I think Chomsky understands the basic nature of humans. They simply want to survive and live a peaceful life – and to that end will invariably have a very high tolerance for all kinds of humiliations and affronts to their dignity. This crap about occupied people naturally gravitating towards some glorious fight (violently if necessary) for their freedom is mostly just that – crap. The vast majority of people will put up with occupation, and all the humiliation that comes with that – to a pretty significant degree. And without wanting to indulge in American propaganda, it can’t be denied that the Iraqis had every reason to feel optimistic after the US toppled Saddam, and therefore had every reason to want to cooperate with the occupiers.

  2. Just received an email from Cbus. Bugger, I (sensibly) had only a small portion of my Cbus Super in this option. Pandemic ? What pandemic ?
    .

    Cbus Super is proud to announce for the 2020/21 financial year a 19.34%* return for the Growth (Cbus MySuper) option, the largest ever annual return in the fund’s 37-year history.

  3. Just saw this post on WhatsApp.

    If you’re feeling useless today, remember somebody is working as a lifeguard at the olymics.

    😆

  4. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1299 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 3:17 pm

    For mine the biggest failing in Iraq was the belief that you could impose some version of democracy on them and expect it to work.

    Barney barney barney. Repeat after me; democracy is great, democracy is good, not everybody loves it but they damn bloody well should or else.

  5. Simon Katich @ #1308 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 2:10 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1299 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 3:17 pm

    For mine the biggest failing in Iraq was the belief that you could impose some version of democracy on them and expect it to work.

    Barney barney barney. Repeat after me; democracy is great, democracy is good, not everybody loves it but they will damn bloody well should or else.

    Do I have to go to the naughty corner now?

  6. Big A Adrian at 3:55 pm

    Simon, hating the occupiers is one thing, actively organizing violent resistance against them is quite another.

    Generally, most ordinary people just want to muddle along with their lives peacefully and with some semblance of order. And if that has to be done with despised occupiers, then so be it.

    First paragraph , actively organised , Uday and Saddam had that sorted so tick . Second paragraph widespread Shia militia attacks on Sunnis, cynically let happen by US I reckon as Sunnis dominated ‘resistance’ then, meant ordinary people could not just muddle along as they would naturally prefer. Their lives and that of their family were at stake. Both Sunni and Shia.

  7. I just noticed this from Rupert orc Adam Creighton. All the pandemic plans revolved around it being an influenza type pandemic. Covid-19 doesn’t behaves like influenza. The difference was spotted early by a number of people and so Plan A was ditched and Plan A.1 adopted. NZ’s Dr Bloomfield spotted the difference after seeing what happened in China and ditched their pandemic plan A for plan A.1 . How did that work out for them Adam ? Apart from Gladystan the rest of the State CMO’s also seemed to have spotted the difference.
    Adam probably taken over from Sheridan in mainlining Washington’s Think Tankistan ‘wisdom’

    Suppression plans straight from CCP play book

    Why the West junked all its pre-2020 pandemic planning remains the most concerning and unanswered question of our time.

    ADAM CREIGHTON
    Washington Correspondent

  8. I just heard an interesting factoid on the Channel 9 News. Apparently some people are waiting up to 4 days to get their Covid test results back in SW Sydney.

    So, of course they are going to be out and about while infectious!

  9. citizen @2:05

    “NSW urged to create fast rail network from Sydney to Newcastle to spur Covid economic recovery

    Committee for Sydney says infrastructure would link the ‘Sydney sandstone megaregion’”

    Where do you think the CfS got the idea from? 🙂

  10. poroti @ #1313 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 2:33 pm

    I just noticed this from Rupert orc Adam Creighton. All the pandemic plans revolved around it being an influenza type pandemic. Covid-19 doesn’t behaves like influenza. The difference was spotted early by a number of people and so Plan A was ditched and Plan A.1 adopted. NZ’s Dr Bloomfield spotted the difference after seeing what happened in China and ditched their pandemic plan A for plan A.1 . How did that work out for them Adam ? Apart from Gladystan the rest of the State CMO’s seemed to have also spotted the difference.
    Adam probably taken over from Sheridan in mainlining Washington’s Think Tankistan ‘wisdom’

    Suppression plans straight from CCP play book

    Why the West junked all its pre-2020 pandemic planning remains the most concerning and unanswered question of our time.

    ADAM CREIGHTON
    Washington Correspondent

    I’m surprised Borewar hasn’t been onto this? 😆

  11. Windhover @ #575 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 3:44 pm

    Simon Katichsays:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    I heard some anti lockdown peep on the radio this morning saying that lockdowns destroy marriages.

    I am sure it does end, or bring forward the end of some marriages. But the evidence I have seen coming out of the US and UK is that marriages are actually, overall, pretty much as solid as ever. And a good journo might ask such pests out there peddling their politics, how would a rampant covid be effecting marriages?
    ……………………………………………………

    Much the same pests claimed same sex marriage would destroy marriage. I am not sure any of them were successfully pinned down to admit they had no explanation for the causality allegedly involved.

    It is impossible to use logic against an opponent who openly decries the validity of logic itself.

    Hmm, so let me put the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle together.

    … The guy was a Prosperity Theology adherent? Marriages collapse when the ‘Breadwinner’ cannot go out and win the bread? There is no life without Prosperity? So he falls in a heap.

    Whereas the sensible among us just deal with it.

  12. Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 4:38 pm
    It is straight out of Fox News. Where the whole thing is a ‘Chinese Communist Party’ plot. Dan, McGowan, Annastacia , Ardern are all doing what the CCP wants them to do. Oh the horrors that even our dear Gladys looks to be succumbing to the Chinese ‘plot’ .

  13. Lᴏʀᴅ Bot and Trot
    @LordofWentworth
    ·
    1h
    Christian Porter’s legal fees gofundme hits $27.50 after just 24 hours, a pace likened to his gov’ts vaccine roll out

  14. Police have arrested a former member of the Defence Force and seized chemicals that could be used to manufacture explosives during a major operation in Picton, south of Sydney.

    Investigators are looking into whether the 54-year-old man, who allegedly has extensive training with bombs from his military experience, is a “doomsday prepper” or was preparing for an act of terrorism using the chemicals he had collected.

  15. poroti @ #1322 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 2:46 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 4:38 pm
    It is straight out of Fox News. Where the whole thing is a ‘Chinese Communist Party’ plot. Dan, McGowan, Annastacia , Ardern are all doing what the CCP wants them to do. Oh the horrors that even our dear Gladys looks to be succumbing to the Chinese ‘plot’ .

    Such a dastardly plot!

    Those who followed it are dealing with the pandemic better than those who didn’t. 😆

  16. Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 4:36 pm
    citizen @2:05

    “NSW urged to create fast rail network from Sydney to Newcastle to spur Covid economic recovery

    Committee for Sydney says infrastructure would link the ‘Sydney sandstone megaregion’”

    Where do you think the CfS got the idea from?
    ___________________________

    The Bicentennial High-Speed Railway Project ?

  17. ” Sceptic @ #1155 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 12:35 pm

    Dan seemed to say a lot of “not like NSW” today

    I expect the vast majority of Victorians are loving Dan throwing shade on Gladys”

    Even SA Liberal premier Marshall today, in announcing a full lockdown from 6pm, is putting in place tighter restrictions than Gladys has, less than 48 hours after a Delta variant transmission was detected occuring in SA, after a total of five cases were detected. It took Gladys 3 weeks, and hundreds detected.

    Right now nobody is defending Berejiklian, Hunt or Morrison unless their job depends on it.

  18. Cud

    “poroti

    Australian Super beat Cbus.

    Nyeah.. Nyeah….”

    Fortunately for Australian workers there are no losers in that competition.

  19. Cud Chewer @ #594 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 4:36 pm

    citizen @2:05

    “NSW urged to create fast rail network from Sydney to Newcastle to spur Covid economic recovery

    Committee for Sydney says infrastructure would link the ‘Sydney sandstone megaregion’”

    Where do you think the CfS got the idea from? 🙂

    By hook or by crook. 😀

  20. “NSW urged to create fast rail network from Sydney to Newcastle to spur Covid economic recovery

    Committee for Sydney says infrastructure would link the ‘Sydney sandstone megaregion’”

    It must be about time to expand the Ord River scheme again then

  21. Going back to 2016, my colleagues and I sat down with the Committee for Sydney to discuss a collaboration on high speed rail. They (the CfS) saw some of our earlier work.

    CfS went its own way and created the project with the title “The Sandstone mega-region” https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2018-06/apo-nid174786.pdf

    They did a lot of good work, talking about the wider need for and the economic benefits of high speed rail. What they got wrong was they accepted the idea that there exists a “sensible middle ground” between today’s rail alignment and a “fast” rail alignment.

    I remember meeting with Eamon Waterford (the then CEO) to try to disabuse him of this. Back then he said to me “we are agnostic about what precise speed”. Its seems from today’s report, the CfS is suggesting “200-250 km/hr” – which is an indefensible engineering position. They are still trying to claim “this is not high speed rail” as if that will buy credibility and get the thing off the ground sooner.

    The reason its indefensible is that you don’t get to run a 200 km/hr train from Newcastle to Sydney (in fact you don’t get to run a 160 km/hr train either) because to do so requires an entirely new alignment. Once you’ve accepted that fact, you quickly discover that there is only marginal difference in cost between a 200 km/hr “fast” train and a 300 km/hr “high speed” train.

    They just need to get over it and accept that there is no physically realisable “middle ground”.

  22. “NSW urged to create fast rail network from Sydney to Newcastle to spur Covid economic recovery

    Oooo goodie now Gladys’ Covid Carriers will be able to get to Newcastle much quicker 🙂

  23. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 4:38 pm

    poroti @ #1313 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 2:33 pm

    I just noticed this from Rupert orc Adam Creighton. All the pandemic plans revolved around it being an influenza type pandemic. Covid-19 doesn’t behaves like influenza. The difference was spotted early by a number of people and so Plan A was ditched and Plan A.1 adopted. NZ’s Dr Bloomfield spotted the difference after seeing what happened in China and ditched their pandemic plan A for plan A.1 . How did that work out for them Adam ? Apart from Gladystan the rest of the State CMO’s seemed to have also spotted the difference.
    Adam probably taken over from Sheridan in mainlining Washington’s Think Tankistan ‘wisdom’

    Suppression plans straight from CCP play book

    Why the West junked all its pre-2020 pandemic planning remains the most concerning and unanswered question of our time.

    ADAM CREIGHTON
    Washington Correspondent

    I’m surprised Borewar hasn’t been onto this? ‘
    _______________________
    Drole? Not really.

    I had seen it and had ignored it. Why dignify the Oz, after all.

    But now that lesser Bludger minds have grasped at their various straws I suppose I should add my tuppence ha’porth worth.

    Ardent Bludger students of medical history would know that one of Morrison’s larger fuck ups was to ditch virtually on day one the pandemic planning that had preceded both his prime ministership and Covid.

  24. SA, NSW, VIC are all hotspots and all will have borders shut – what a big fuck up by FED + STATE LIBS (NSW, SA).
    ___
    So why SA?

  25. @Barney:

    ““The situation in South Australia is concerning, and as they’ve announced a State wide lockdown, we have declared the state a hotspot,” said the chief health officer Jeanette Young.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/20/australia-covid-live-update-victoria-to-learn-lockdown-fate-calls-for-nsw-children-to-be-vaccinated-sydney-gladys-berejiklian-melbourne-scott-morrison-death-removalists-pfizer-astrazeneca-coronavirus

  26. poroti

    When they built the rail line from France to Spain they sited the Canfranc border station where the rail line could be easily cut off (with explosives). I’m sure we could leave some dynamite in the tunnel north of the Hawkesbury, just in case 🙂

  27. Cbus Super is proud to announce for the 2020/21 financial year a 19.34%* return for the Growth (Cbus MySuper) option, the largest ever annual return in the fund’s 37-year history.

    Of course, coming off a low base. You should be careful Vote1Julua doesn’t check the Cbus web site and accuse you of being a liar, as he did with me after I made a similar post last year.

    Depending on the dates you choose, AusSuper “Balanced” (my choice) for every $100,000 held just before COVID really hit hard last year, sank to around $87,400 in June 2020 and is now back around $114,000: a 30% ROI (after fees) in 12 months for doing nothing at all but riding it out.

    I’m sure all the industry super funds have similar stories.

    If you’d swapped the $100k “Balanced” for $100k “Cash”, waited until the market turned upwards again, then switched back to “Balanced”, that $100k would be ~$130k now, so the REAL smarties who did this would now be well ahead.

    Naturally, if *everyone* had swapped “Balanced” for “Cash” in April 2020, then back again in October (or whenever the market regained its feet again), all at the same times, the market would have plummetted at the first switch and boomed at the second… IF it recovered at all from the initial mass sell out.

    I confess I thought about trying the above scenario, but the prospect of a run on the Stock Exchange (ie. if everyone sold off simultaneously), leading to an even bigger financial, business and employment disaster than what we had in the middle of a pandemic (possible depression instead of a mild recession), was too scary for me. So I stuck with the herd. As did most of the other wilderbeest. No prizes claimed for brilliance. I just took AusSuper’s advice and held on.

    But I have no doubt others took the risk and reaped commensurate rewards.

    The truth is that no-one knew for sure what would happen, and to bet the farm could have brought on real misery.

  28. For those with a genuine interest in matters China there was an excellent discussion on the ABC radio this afternoon on the future of China. ex Lowy Institute.
    Inter alia, it focused on the existing framework for the transition from Xi Jinping to his successor, Xi not being immortal after all.

  29. Zerlo

    I am not always a fan of Liberal governments, but it is clear that the SA liberal government followed the medical advise strictly. They announced restrictions the first day they got untraced community infections with Delta Covid. They announced a full lockdown less than one day later, with still only five cases. Gladys took three weeks, and still has not announced as tight restrictions.

    So what did the SA government do wrong? They have followed the lead of the Qld and WA governments on covid responses consistently through the pandemic.

    The fact SA is a blackspot now is only because SA reported cases honestly. The removal truck came from NSW without honestly reporting its movements. Where did the SA government fail?

  30. Cud Chewer at 5:16 pm
    Good thinking. davidwh may end up wishing a similar plan was in place for The Island.
    .
    Bushfire Bill at 5:17 pm
    The dates of the financial year are bloody well placed for maximizing apparent returns. In the case of Cbus my balance, from memory , only dropped by 1.something% which was much less than I’d expected so still a good return over the two years.

  31. Zerlo @ #1342 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 3:16 pm

    @Barney:

    ““The situation in South Australia is concerning, and as they’ve announced a State wide lockdown, we have declared the state a hotspot,” said the chief health officer Jeanette Young.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/20/australia-covid-live-update-victoria-to-learn-lockdown-fate-calls-for-nsw-children-to-be-vaccinated-sydney-gladys-berejiklian-melbourne-scott-morrison-death-removalists-pfizer-astrazeneca-coronavirus

    You really are a mental midget.

    Lockdown announced within 48 hours of the first case.

    Apart from locking down after the first case, which Victoria doesn’t even do, I’m struggling to see how they could have been any quicker.

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