Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. DisplayName says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:12 pm

    It turns out the manufacturing debate in Australia was all a question of sticking it to the unions.

    Who knew.
    ______
    That’s how it turned out in Detroit. The unions won so many advantageous conditions that the Japanese beat them on efficiency. The companies were forced to shift production.

    Of course the U.S government could have propped them up, but at what exorbitant cost?

  2. ‘Mavis says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 1:43 pm

    It’s pleasing to see that some Afghan vets are taking a stand over the reprehensible delay in getting Afghan translators to Australia – their lives surely in danger. These guys no doubt saved many diggers’ lives but they’re being treated like lepers. The Morrison Government is the pits.
    …’
    ___________________________________
    Dutton and Morrison are both in on this bastard act.

    Apart from the immediate issues of justice, there is the practical future consideration: what civilian would ever side with an Aussie soldier o/s ever again?

  3. I think it’s understandable that Covid and lockdowns increase domestic pressures, and by extension marriages especially ones that are negotiating tough situations, personally, financially, sexually. Everyone has their needs, and they don’t always totally overlap, and while they can be contained, and denied, and subdued, and deferred, eventually a pressure point can build up. It’s the a Room of One’s Own thing, or for richer or poorer, for better for worse, but never for lunch.

  4. For someone who is supposed to be such a savvy political operator, Cummings is being remarkably naive if he really thinks all these revelations about Boris saying stupid things is going to turn the public against the government one iota.

  5. A “huge surge” in Covid testing across Sydney has crippled private pathology services and left Sydneysiders waiting almost four days for their results.

    The delays are causing headaches for the essential workers living in three local government areas in south-western Sydney who must get tested every 72 hours, as authorities are unable to guarantee a result by the time they present for their next test.

    Elsewhere, the delays could cause problems for medical procedures across the city, as some hospitals require a negative Covid test before entry for elective surgery.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/20/huge-surge-in-sydney-covid-testing-leaves-people-waiting-days-for-results

  6. “Of course the U.S government could have propped them up”

    And they did, dickhead.

    Whereas, Australia, under Abbott & Hockey, didn’t.

    Fools.

  7. kezza2:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:13 pm

    [‘Mavis

    Possibly I thought this after you cuddling up to some RWNJs.

    Sorry if I done you wrong.’]

    It’s not a matter of me cuddling up to some RWNJs.
    I judge each post on its merit and I certainly don’t engage in groupthink, nor too much personal abuse, or sending posters to Coventry. In fact, I’ve never blocked anyone. If I was in politics I’d be unaligned; it gives you the peace of mind to express what’s really on your mind. But thanks for the apology.

  8. kezza2 says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:30 pm

    “Of course the U.S government could have propped them up”

    And they did, dickhead.

    Whereas, Australia, under Abbott & Hockey, didn’t.

    Fools.
    ___________

    The U.S government propped up the companies, not the workers. U.S car companies had already shifted the a lot of their production to Mexico. Dickhead.

  9. Mavis at 2:17 pm
    I thought it would be a bipartisan ‘no brainer’ that we offer these people every assistance. But I guess I was wrong.

    Those who are Hazaras especially so. They were never the most popular ethnic group of the Pashtun dominated Taliban. But their role in a massacre of 8,000 Taliban prisoners late last century (love saying that makes me feel ancient 🙂 ) would have earned then a permanent target on their backs.

  10. guytaur at 2:31 pm
    Their ‘car industry’ was ‘exported’ to Mexico. Bubba Clinton may take ‘cough’ credit for it but it was originally a Repug union busting project , targeting one of the last strong unions .

  11. “what civilian would ever side with an Aussie soldier o/s ever again?”
    —————–

    one that lost their job and livelihood as a direct result of the invasion/war that those Aussie soldier’s started perhaps?

    I’m guessing people in such desperate situations tend not to think of all possible contingencies 10-15 years down the road.

    Kind of like how when the US invaded Iraq and at a stroke of a pen sacked the entire civil service. Those newly created unemployed masses who then decided to accept a job with the occupiers may have had concerns with being branded traitors and collaborators – but what choice did they have? How else were they going to feed their families?

  12. Poroti

    Cash for Clunkers was the Obama era response to saving the car industry aimed mainly at Detroit and thus General Motors.

    It was to save the jobs in the US after the GFC. As you point out a lot of the outsourcing had already occurred

  13. boerwar:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:24 pm

    Apart from the immediate issues of justice, there is the practical future consideration: what civilian would ever side with an Aussie soldier o/s ever again?’]

    Sound point. Fraser allowed South Vietnamese into Australia after the fall of Saigon; Hawke, Chinese students after Tiananmen. Morrison leaves Afghan interpreters to the murderous Taliban, a measure of his so-called Christian values. I suspect that the Afghan desk will be burning the midnight oil following the burning of medals.

  14. Japan government propped up there industries like Germany government has. There is no special efficient thing any of them did, they didn’t screw their workers either. And they invested in their education system.

    Australia should learn from that instead of kill unions and worker rights that the US did.

  15. Big A Adrian
    Included in the sacking was the military. Boy was that a dumb arse move and bonanza for the Iraqi resistance. Saddam had, after the previous war, concluded that he would not be able to stop an invasion. So he had a 40,000 strong group set up to fight a guerrilla war post invasion. Arms dumps the works.
    They were doing a shit load of damage , posting lots of Youtube vids too, until the US came in with a mountain of cash to pay off the ‘tribes’ . That was when a more religious tone of the ‘resistance’ started to take a stronger hold.

  16. kezza2:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:33 pm

    [‘Mavis

    As I said, I apologise.

    I don’t think I abused you.’]

    I didn’t say you abused me. I was talking in general terms re. abuse. So all’s good from my perspective.

  17. @noplaceforsheep
    2m
    You aren’t half infectious because you’ve been out & about for half the number of hours.
    This is doing my head in

    @Watcher33333
    3m
    Replying to
    @noplaceforsheep
    And because they were only out part of the time, Gladys doesn’t count them in her reports. Just the ones who were out for the entire time they were infectious…

  18. Sort of good news in SA. Just back from visit to local supermarket. Out of about 150 people seen, one not wearing face mask. One other not wearing full over nose – adjusted when given a signal. No sign of panic buying. No sign of any “hoax lockdown” fanatics.

    The Lockdown requirement to wear face masks doesn’t start for about 4 hours.

  19. To keeza2. From earlier regarding the Mildura man

    I believe he was first listed as tier 2 site so get tested and wait the result ,1st came back negative,which then released him from isolation.

    2 or 3 days later started feeling unwell, after being In community for so many days ,hence all the exposure sites.
    Tested again only to be now positive.
    That’s why a lot of people who first got messages about being tier 2 sites to get re tested as they were now upgraded to a tier 1 test and isolate for 14 days

  20. poroti, yep.

    It was widely speculated that the US would have had a valuable and willing ally in the Iraqi military had they not disbanded it. And they would have been a very effective force in helping to maintain security and preventing the post-invasion mayhem that occurred. Sure, get rid of the republican guards and other baathist bodies, but by and large the regulars were not the enemy.

    And as you say, in the end these people ended up giving their service (not to mention their skills and expertise) to the insurgents.

    I remember Noam Chomsky saying at the time, it really should have been the easiest occupation imaginable. That the US stuffed it up so badly was quite a monumental achievement.

  21. The American car industry was a mess but that is what happens when you make businesses responsible for things that are not business related.

  22. My daughters done it tough
    Flew in from singapore ,spent 2 weeks in hotel quarantine,
    Out on the 2nd of July attended her grandfathers funeral 5th caught up with friends for next few days went to frozen the musical on the wed.14th next day 15th back into lock down till she flys out on Monday 26th back to singapore were she’ll have to quarantine for another week on arrival,so far has had 9 COVID tests with some more to come in singapore
    Missed out catching up with family after not being home for 2yrs.

    So I’ll being see her after they return from Anglesea after 12 days to drive her to the airport,sad days indeed.

  23. Mrmoney

    Yeah, that’s fair enough.

    However, if you thought you had been exposed, and then tested negative, why would you go out in the community when you knew there was a chance there was a lag time between a negative test and a positive one?

    It doesn’t make sense to me.

    However, I think the Vic unit of Andrews, Sutton & Jereon are now making absolutely clear that this is the case.

    So, I think Victorian should be warned.

    Hence, I suspect, the long lines on Philip Island.

  24. In any case, I think the following is a somewhat naive claim:

    If it made economic sense for Australia to have extensive manufacturing then we would have it already.

    The world is partly as it is due to accidents of history rather than out of necessity. Economic (and other) imperatives drive some things, but aren’t the whole story.

  25. Look, I dont want to defend the US from some really bad decisions, nor disagree with Chomsky, but…. everyman and his dog wanted the US to fail in Iraq. Iran, Syria, Russia, Turkey…. probably even the Saudis. And internally, plenty who also wanted it to turn to shiite.

  26. poroti:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:34 pm

    [‘Mavis at 2:17 pm

    I thought it would be a bipartisan ‘no brainer’ that we offer these people every assistance. But I guess I was wrong.’]

    I’m fairly confident to suggest that had not some vets burned their service medals, the issue of the translators would have remained on the government’s backburner. Vets have tried gentle persuasion but this didn’t work. So they resorted to burning their medals, with hopefully the desired result. No government wants this type of publicity.

    [‘Those who are Hazaras especially so. They were never the most popular ethnic group of the Pashtun dominated Taliban. But their role in a massacre of 8,000 Taliban prisoners late last century (love saying that makes me feel ancient ) would have earned then a permanent target on their backs.’]

    Thanks for the background. I’m not familiar with the groupings in Afganistan save to say that the Taliban would have long memories, making the plight of the Hazara translators even more dire.

  27. Kezza2

    I agree but ,but a 30 yr old male ,told he’s released ,I’m outa here.
    I don’t need to stay home got things to and places to go.

    But the man who caught it from the movers if it had been a Tuesday might have stayed home until feeling unwell ,but unfortunately it was a footy day and the man likes a drink.
    Timing was everything,stay home limited cases out and about at mass gatherings has 18 thousand in quarantine and 6 mil.locked down

  28. >I remember Noam Chomsky saying at the time, it really should have been the easiest occupation imaginable. That the US stuffed it up so badly was quite a monumental achievement.

    He was wrong. The US had been pumping the ‘Iraqis secretly love us, its just Saddam that hates us’ propaganda for years, and believed its own press. Thus they were more than a little shocked to find the inhabitants of a country they had been persecuting since 1991 pretty much universally hated them. Disbanding the security forces was still a mistake because leaving people who know how to use guns and explosives both unemployed and with a grievance isn’t a good idea. Its also true that the US stuffed up a lot of other aspects of the occupation to a remarkable degree, and you can be fairly confident they won’t have learned from the experience.

    There will never be an easy occupation because populations are bigger, transport and communications are better and countries that don’t like the US know how to stir shit with minimal effort. Also the people running future occupations will be the same colonial fantasists that turned Iraq and Afghanistan into debacles.

  29. Also, bringing up unions indicates thinking that can’t quite get itself away from the rapidly obsolescing concept of “cheap labour”.

  30. Simon Katichsays:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    I heard some anti lockdown peep on the radio this morning saying that lockdowns destroy marriages.

    I am sure it does end, or bring forward the end of some marriages. But the evidence I have seen coming out of the US and UK is that marriages are actually, overall, pretty much as solid as ever. And a good journo might ask such pests out there peddling their politics, how would a rampant covid be effecting marriages?
    ……………………………………………………

    Much the same pests claimed same sex marriage would destroy marriage. I am not sure any of them were successfully pinned down to admit they had no explanation for the causality allegedly involved.

    It is impossible to use logic against an opponent who openly decries the validity of logic itself.

  31. Mrmoney

    So sad for you.

    I feel equally as sad for my DIL. She has had a baby here in Australia, far away from her family and friends, with no hope of them visiting her, nor vice versa.

    We try to make up for it, but with lockdowns, here there and everywhere, it’s difficult.

    So, know that people are thinking of you; care about you.

    Look after yourself.

  32. For mine the biggest failing in Iraq was the belief that you could impose some version of democracy on them and expect it to work.

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