Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Marty

    That’s the point not the support. What would have happened. When Labor made its investment the circumstances were different and Labor encouraged local focused.

    It’s still up to management to turn that into popular in the local market. GM have had difficulties with this in the US. It’s interesting to watch Doug Demoro’s take on the failure of the Holden rebadged cars in the US.

    https://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/01/doug-demuro-dives-into-the-2017-chevrolet-ss-video/

    So the point is government can take it so far. Holden was just the last to go because of its local links and given support may have survived with different cars.

    As we know there was no problem with the popularity of the utes.

  2. Meanwhile in other news: Crown unfit to hold a casino license according to commission lawyers.

    If Crown loses the license they will soon be so short of cash they will need to lay off Liberal MPs.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/crown-unfit-to-run-casino-in-melbourne-say-royal-commission-lawyers-20210720-p58b83.html

    The timing of Crown’s illegal behaviours coming to light is not good. They can’t point to a massive number high rollers coming here from China any time soon, without which their business model is only the exploitation of local gamblers or money laundering. Time to let Crown go.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #1199 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 12:58 pm

    SK,

    I daresay that’s all true.

    But, your State Election is next March (I believe). So, while I have no real appreciation of his performance on other issues, I reckon he was on a winner with his performance today.

    Agreed.

    Yet he would have been miffed that the other issue that wont go away (his Achilles heel of health funding and especially ambulance funding and ramping) played a big part in the conference.

  4. Recon @ #1142 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 12:24 pm

    If overseas child care providers were competing with ours it would be. Just as with the car industry.

    The luxury car tax was/is protectionism.

    Automotive subsidies are more like incentivizing socially-beneficial activities and nation-building. They’re not protectionist. Beyond the extent that every nation-building activity is intrinsically protectionist to some degree, anyways.

  5. With three states currently in various forms of lockdown, almost two thirds (64.6%) of Australia’s population is directly impacted and the rest of the country is indirectly impacted. Meanwhile the Prime Minister is presumably somewhere doing something??

    Population at 31 Dec 2020 (‘000) (ABS)
    New South Wales 8,172.5
    Victoria 6,661.7
    Queensland 5,194.9
    South Australia 1,770.8
    Western Australia 2,670.2
    Tasmania 541.5
    Northern Territory 246.6
    Australian Capital Territory 431.5
    Australia (a) 25,694.4

  6. All the economic textbooks will have to be re written to show that subsidies are not protectionist. It’s a big job.

  7. poroti @ #1169 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 12:50 pm

    boerwars at 12:41 pm
    Adhesion? Think of it as ‘stickiness’, how attached they are. A vote you won simply for, to the voter, being less bad than the other lot makes for an easily ‘detached’ vote. Which is what you’ll get if you rely on the Coalition losing rather than you giving people a reason to vote for you.

    The greatest factor in “adhesion” is actually being in government. Isn’t that what “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” means?

    So the main job is to get into government however you can. From then on, avoid major stuff-ups (including unnecessary changes of leadership).

  8. “If there’s one thing that shits me about the NBN, is having to cope with VOIP…”

    I just came home to see the main light on the NBN modem red. Thinking the worst, checked internet – ok. Mobile (that light was red) – OK – phone ok. Email OK. Netflix working. Weird. But not unexpected.

    Main light green now but mobile showing as yellow.

    Thanks. Talcum…

  9. Recon

    All the LNP economic textbooks are going to have to be rewritten that not all government investments including the ones called subsidies are protectionism or nationalism like you argue.

  10. I am stunned (almost) into silence at how Badly Bumbling Boris has dealt with the pandemic in the UK.

    The coronavirus certainly knows how to separate the stupid sheep from the clever goats, and to find all the holes in a country’s social fabric.

  11. On Cormann, it was Lib and Lab bipartisan, even the no expenses spared flights apparently

    The inside story of how Cormann got his magic number
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-inside-story-of-how-cormann-got-his-magic-number-20210313-p57aht.html

    Wherever Cormann went he carried a bundle of testimonials, including a letter from Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Albanese wrote that Cormann had earned the respect “not only of those who share his political views but also those who don’t”. “Mathias is a skilled negotiator with the ability to effectively engage across the political spectrum,” the Labor leader said.

    On the prospect of a Cormann win, Albanese wrote: “Australians would regard this as an achievement not just for Mathias but a proud recognition of our nation.”

    Albanese and Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong resisted pressure from some MPs to withdraw the opposition’s support after The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reported in November that the government gave Cormann the RAAF jet to conduct his lobbying blitz through coronavirus-ravaged Europe.

    There were also testimonials from former Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes, who described Cormann as “a person of the utmost integrity”, former Shoppies union boss Joe de Bruyn, Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson.

  12. Someone needs to get on to the Encyclopedia Britannica. Look, they’ve got it all wrong:

    Protectionism, policy of protecting domestic industries against foreign competition by means of tariffs, subsidies, import quotas, or other restrictions or handicaps placed on the imports of foreign competitors.

    https://www.britannica.com/topic/protectionism

  13. Some happy news to get us through lockdown.

    “Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    11m
    Christian Porter and barrister facing $550,000 costs bill”

  14. Q: I have said before that auto manufacturing was the de facto university of manufacturing in this country.
    My partner would agree with this 100 percent…He runs Australia’s largest manufacturing website, and was former editor-in-chief of BRW. He knows more about manufacturing than all of us combined!
    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/

  15. Cud Chewer @ #1211 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 1:11 pm

    Interesting statistic just now from the sick Hunt.

    408 cases of flu so far this year. 0 deaths.

    I heard some anti lockdown peep on the radio this morning saying that lockdowns destroy marriages.

    I am sure it does end, or bring forward the end of some marriages. But the evidence I have seen coming out of the US and UK is that marriages are actually, overall, pretty much as solid as ever. And a good journo might ask such pests out there peddling their politics, how would a rampant covid be effecting marriages?

    https://media.deseret.com/media/misc/pdf/afs/2020-AFS-Final-Report.pdf
    https://marriagefoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/press-release-MF-paper-Marriages-in-lockdown.pdf

  16. What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? Find out in today’s exciting episode of PB featuring Recon and Guytaur!

  17. “Menzies wanting to ensure Australia was a reliable ally under ANZUS.”
    —————-

    From memory, Menzies went “all the way with LBJ” into Vietnam even before The President asked him to. Menzies then went on to lie to parliament about it.

  18. DisplayName says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 1:58 pm

    What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? Find out today’s exciting episode featuring Recon and Guytaur!
    _________
    We’ve already found out. The unstoppable force remains undefeated. The immovable object digs a bigger hole.

  19. Mavis
    It involves Scotty “I stopped these” Morrison and the Uber Tuber so a wee correction
    .
    .
    .These guys no doubt saved many diggers’ lives but they’re being treated like lepers brown people guilty of being muslim .

  20. BK- Great, I hope you enjoy it…he puts a lot of work into it- for not much reward. There is a lot of manufacturing news in Australia everyday, despite what people think.
    Manufacturing is still bigger than the rural industry or mining industry in Australia.

  21. @cmclymer tweets

    Hahahaha, oh, we do love to kid around here. We have fun! But all kidding aside, we may get sued, so please take COVID seriously.

    — Sean Hannity

    Edit: And

    Please, for the love of all that’s good, you don’t have to praise Sean Hannity. He has done absolutely nothing to merit your praise. “Take COVID seriously” is his numbed and resigned response to getting spanked by Fox News lawyers behind closed doors. Don’t praise him for that.

  22. When Theoden King of Rohan encouraged his army to take on the orcs he hailed “Death! Death! Death!”

    I think Boris thinks of himself like that. Bravely encouraging his people to ride for…. Freedom?

    And…. yes yes yes, it was actually Eomer who said it in the book. After he found his King and sister dead he rallied the Rohirrim for another charge with “Death! Ride, ride to ruin and the world’s ending”

  23. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:01 pm

    nath,

    By that definition, “protectionism” is about as useful a label as “socialism”.
    _________
    probably, but you can still apply a measure on how protectionist or socialist a nation is. I would argue that money spent on welfare measures is far better than propping up a small number of well paid manufacturing workers with union/political clout.

  24. kezza2:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    [‘Mavis

    “The Morrison Government is the pits.”

    Took you a while to realise this.’]

    Why on earth would you say that. I’m stridently critical of the Morrison Government at every turn.
    I know you’ve returned to this site after a sabbatical but please point out where I’ve been praiseworthy of this rotten government.

  25. “Automotive subsidies are more like incentivizing socially-beneficial activities and nation-building”
    ———————

    I’m sure all protectionist policies could be spun this way.
    Doesn’t make them any less protectionist though.

  26. poroti:

    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 2:00 pm

    [‘Mavis

    .These guys no doubt saved many diggers’ lives but they’re being treated like lepers brown people guilty of being muslim .’]

    I too think that racism may be a factor. I’ve never known servicemen to burn their medals. It is a measure of what they think of this government and Dutton would be beside himself.

  27. Covid: Boris Johnson resisted autumn lockdown as only over-80s dying – Dominic Cummings

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57854811
    Contains a snippet

    Dominic Cummings: The Interview will be broadcast in the UK on BBC Two at 19:00 BST on Tuesday, and it will be available on BBC iPlayer and BBC Sounds

    Like Trumps playing to his rusted base.. will anybody give a rats?

  28. Hunt’s spray of numbers – which out of context mean very little.

    And that is it from Greg Hunt. I’ll just run though some of his other top-line vaccination statistics.

    975,716 vaccinations last week, 10.2m doses in total;
    169,911 on Monday (highest Monday figure recorded);
    About 60% of over 50s, 68% of over 60s and 75.5% of over 70s received one dose;
    2.9 million people who are fully vaccinated, and 7.3 million with one dose; and
    Now more than 6000 places offering the vaccine.
    (Guardian updates at 14:09)

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