The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
guytaur @ #89 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:50 am
???
I thought it was because he wouldn’t listen to, or consult colleagues.
Kirky
“In addition, I will stick my left ball on the line that the State Premiers in WA, Qld and Vic will have a significant role in the federal election.”
Only one? Not sure? 🙂
Seriously. I’m willing to be convinced about this, but where are the seats in these states that are plausible and is that enough?
‘Quoll says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:06 am
Amazing idiocy and contempt for their fellow and younger Australians in the boomer and older demographic in the polling still.
Really like the Turkeys voting for christmas considering the aged care history and situation as well.
Hardly that surprising to me given the fixated ignorant attitudes of what seems to be many of that demographic even on PB. ‘
_______________________________________
Yet another drive-by salvo of abuse from quoll. I do hope that all the Greens voters older than 30 wake up to themselves. They are going to be the first lined up against the wall when the Greens Revolution arrives.
Quoll says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:06 am
Seriously the idiocy and contempt that the older demographic have …..suggests they deserve as little respect and consideration as they show others, or indeed as they show themselves, if they think they’re going to get good treatment in their dotage in aged care…….
The revenge of the Quoll….fearsome to behold.
As for the headlines that Morrison lied about organising more Pfizer when it was done via Rudd’s efforts, is anyone surprised?
Morrison is a shameless liar. The more pressure he is under, the more he lies. But it does no harm to Labor to have this confirmed by journalists and former Liberal MPs and PMs.
Barney
Yes resulting in slow government policy rollout.
I thought the history was known enough to skip to the conclusion.
BB,
Trust-based Ponzi scheme – that’s good one!
”
citizensays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:38 am
Almost certainly one person in the Murdoch empire concocted the article on Rudd and Pfizer and the order went out to all papers to print it. (A bit like all Murdoch papers worldwide simultaneously claiming Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.)
Murdoch’s problem this time is that the chair of Pfizer may make a public statement.
”
If and when Chair of Pfizer makes public statement Murdoch could print a picture of that Chair lying if it is not as they presented.
Socrates
The question is, will the fact that Morrison lied about more doses finally filter into the shallow end of the media?
‘frednk says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:22 am ‘
_____________________
Good post, IMO.
@JoshButler tweets
Tony Abbott excitedly getting on the blower to Scott Morrison to ask if he can threaten to shirtfront Pfizer because he wants to help too
guytaur @ #106 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:11 am
Oh?
Nothing to do with Rudd wanting his own way then?
I’ve heard 116 cases today in Sydney
@cokeefe tweets
I’m hearing new NSW cases are above 110 today. No surprise given Premier Berejiklian’s comments. Tough couple of weeks ahead. @9NewsAUS #sydneylockdown
Lisa Wilkinson
@Lisa_Wilkinson
As a marketing guy how could @ScottMorrisonMP not see working with @MrKRudd on Pfizer supplies would have been great PR.
Australia would have seen a PM putting aside politics to LEAD in a time of crisis.
Instead, no credit, and smoked out by @latingle
Barney
Rudd did good.
No matter how you paint it that just shows up Morrison more.
guytaur @ #116 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:18 am
Did I say otherwise.
I’m just confused by your air brushed version of history.
Cud
“The question is, will the fact that Morrison lied about more doses finally filter into the shallow end of the media?”
If you mean the Murdoch press I would say no. It would cost them their jobs. They are not so much journalists as de-facto Liberal Party staffers.
I am more optimistic about voters and even LNP financial backers seeing through Morrison though, because this is costing them personal liberty, jobs and money. There is really nobody but the Axis of Incompetence (Morrison, Hunt, Berejiklian and Hazzard) who can be blamed for the Sydney lockdown.
Also, even now their failure is exposed, the Libs still can’t admit the truth. They had further uncontrolled transmission on the weekend. So, allowing for Covid’s potential incubation period, the earliest lockdown should end is in three weeks time. But they won’t say it.
@ljayes tweets
Breaking: NSW willing to go it alone on JobKeeper.
The State Govt costed a $4B, 8 week wage subsidy program to be administered through the payroll system.
NSW priority is keeping nexus btw business and employees.
Other options under negotiation
More #AmAgenda @SkyNewsAust
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:55 am
My son relayed a very disturbing statistic to me today. In England it’s predicted that Domestic Violence incidents will increase by 26% if England wins the UEFA Cup. However, if they lose they will only increase by 24%.
Not good either way but, ‘at least’ they lost.
”
It is European cup.
Socrates
I mean the populist media. Channel 7 etc.
guytaur
If that’s true, it doesn’t bode well for relationship between federal and state Liberal.
”
Cud Chewersays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:04 am
We now have more local cases in NSW than at the peak last March.
Well done, Gladys.
”
Are you saying that Sydney never had more than 77 cases a day till now?
Cud Chewer @ #95 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 10:02 am
Hard to believe that any credible expert would recommend putting all of our eggs in one basket like that. Sounds more like a political hack; someone appointed purely for their ability to deliver whatever “expert advice” the government happens to want.
Cud
When you have the owner of 7 funding legal cases by LNP leaning public figures I am not optimistic. Though if the business community in NSW turns against the Libs (which they might) then 7 and 9 could flip from pro-LNP to neutral.
Cud
Yes. I would say it’s only a matter of time for a Morrison to be challenged. With this mob who knows though.
Cud
“In other words, the people I blame are the so-called experts. The ones that provided the “advice” that we go all-in with AstraZeneca.”
Pfizer have already confirmed in the Rudd story that they were shown the door by a low level bureaucrat, who may not have even been in the Health department, and was certainly not a doctor. Not an expert.
Unbridled joy on show.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EURO2020/status/1414371138981990406/video/1
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:16 am
Lisa Wilkinson
@Lisa_Wilkinson
As a marketing guy how could @ScottMorrisonMP not see working with @MrKRudd on Pfizer supplies would have been great PR.
Australia would have seen a PM putting aside politics to LEAD in a time of crisis.
Instead, no credit, and smoked out by @latingle
”
Although Peter Fitzsimmons is through and through Labor supporter, Lisa W was supposed to have voted regularly for LNP atleast during Howard times and even after that.
Don’t panic yet Sydneyites. IF your lock down is a lock down rather than a mock down then numbers will initially spike before plummeting. At least that was the NZ experience with their real lock down. Initially you had the ‘baked in’ cases plus transmission to other householders which made the numbers jump . THEN the case numbers fell off a cliff. From unreliable memory it took 10 days for the lock down to show up.
Socrates
Yes, but the decision to send that lowly bureaucrat, not the Health Minister says everything about decisions that had already been made. Based on the likes of Brendan.
These things don’t happen by accident.
guytaur
I was talking about a potential chilling between Gladys and Scomo
I think that Gladys’s decision to backtrack and go for a lockdown has enraged Scomo (and Brendan and other lowlifes). One wonders if they don’t want to “let it rip” so that they can come marching in with vaccines and create a whole new narrative.
poroti
Yep, 10 days is what it takes to flush the pipeline.
However, you’ll notice that Melbourne didn’t turn around last year until the harshest measures (distance limits etc) were imposed. Gladys still needs to close non essential business.
One reason why is that its all about the signals being sent to the public.
”
Socratessays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:29 am
Cud
When you have the owner of 7 funding legal cases by LNP leaning public figures I am not optimistic. Though if the business community in NSW turns against the Libs (which they might) then 7 and 9 could flip from pro-LNP to neutral.
“”
IMO, it is Costello 9Fax and Stokes 7. So it is a big ask for them to shift from pro-LNP to neutral.
Cud
In the Liberal party this could be the moderates strike back.
They have been in the back seat and Berejikilian is their Premier.
Cud Chewer at 10:36 am
It may also pay to keep in mind Scotty’s religion .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecostalism
poroti @ #136 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 10:44 am
That is SO wrong. No wonder these people are flucked in the head. And noone who believes this abhorrent non Chistian hogwash should be in charge of anything, let alone a country.
Cud
“Yes, but the decision to send that lowly bureaucrat, not the Health Minister says everything about decisions that had already been made. Based on the likes of Brendan.
These things don’t happen by accident.”
Again, we are talking about power, not expertise. As I have said before, Brendan Murphy was an eminent doctor, a nephrologist (kidney specialist). He was never an epidemiologist. Never worked on infectious diseases. And he has been a senior health bureaucrat in a Commonwealth department, not a practicing doctor, for 15 years. Howard was PM when he last practiced medicine.
Murphy is not, and has never been, an expert on infectious diseases like covid.
I think this is one of the reasons why the States have been way ahead of the Commonwealth on covid responses. All the expertise on actual health service delivery exists at State level, not Federal. The commonwealth is expert at cutting economical drug supply deals for the PBS. But state-dominated committees recommend what those drugs should be.
An infectious diseases expert has forecast it may take up to six weeks for Sydney to gain control of its spiralling COVID-19 outbreak.
Professor Robert Booy referred to Taiwan as an example, noting the country suffered from a similar outbreak in May and they were able to flatten the curve within six weeks, even with low immunisation rates.
“We can do the same – five to six weeks, we could be under much better control,” he told Today.
“We’re doing well but have to get the vaccine rate up and have to get the social isolation even better.”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/nsw-cases-to-soar-as-lockdown-predicted-to-last-for-weeks/ar-AAM1VuG?ocid=msedgntp
When you think about it…
… works just as well in reverse…
”
sprocket_says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:31 am
Unbridled joy on show.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EURO2020/status/1414371138981990406/video/1
”
Will the Engand press blame POC for the loss because atleast 2 (or is it 3) of the 3 misses in shootout were by POC players.
‘Poroti says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:44 am
Cud Chewer at 10:36 am
It may also pay to keep in mind Scotty’s religion .
Pentecostalism
……..However, not everyone receives healing when they pray. It is God in his sovereign wisdom who either grants or withholds healing. Common reasons that are given in answer to the question as to why all are not healed include: God teaches through suffering, healing is not always immediate, lack of faith on the part of the person needing healing, and personal sin in one’s life………….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecostalism‘
____________________________
Morrison is in deep pentecostal shit cos lying is a sin
Cud Chewer
That is why I was an IF re mock re real lockdown. I was looking at articles re strictness and came across this little snippet from the ABC in an article comparing NZ v Aus. Note the date and remember NSW’s recent efforts.
When Melbourne got ‘serious’.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-of-the-worlds-toughest-coronavirus-lockdowns-eases-in-melbourneby-a-hair-11603018978
Has anyone noticed how everything’s a “bubble” nowadays?
Had to listen to nearly 10 minutes of the ABC’s Albury-Wodonga reporter this morning rabbiting on about “The Border Bubble”.
Then there are the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, and the “Canberra Bubble”.
ENOUGH with the bubbles already!
ItzaDream says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:48 am
poroti @ #136 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 10:44 am
Cud Chewer at 10:36 am
It may also pay to keep in mind Scotty’s religion .
Pentecostalism.. with adheres to “inerrancy:..
Biblical inerrancy is the belief that the Bible “is without error or fault in all its teaching”;[1] or, at least, that “Scripture in the original manuscripts does not affirm anything that is contrary to fact”
Inerrancy is the antithesis of science & truth.. no wonder they lie all the time & shift the goal post to cover up their madness..
Fairfield Showground COVID testing clinic is abuzz with activity, but St Vincent’s Hospital pathology unit SydPath director of operations Greg Granger is concerned about the increasing positive cases.
In the past two days, the clinic has recorded 101 cases of COVID-19. On Saturday, about 1100 cars came though, with almost one in 20 people testing positive for COVID, Mr Granger said.
BB
Then there are the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, and the “Canberra Bubble”.
you missed the ultimate..”property Bubble “
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/07/12/government-vaccination-ad-milkshake/
With the higher reproductive rate of the Delta variant, you might then hope that the measures taken under a stage 4 are enough to drive transmission down. Can anyone foresee a possible future scenario where Stage 5 or 6 restrictions might one day be required and what would they look like?
http://www.guntheranderson.com/v/data/theirish.htm
Because lying she knew was a sin..