Essential Research leadership and COVID polling

The shine continues to come off Scott Morrison’s COVID-boosted personal ratings, plus new evidence of a softening in support for the Coalition among women.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.

Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”

Comments Page 70 of 71
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  1. Goll says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 8:15 pm
    More bullshit Nath
    ___________________
    Looks like you misspoke Goll. Pretty effective rebuttal from recon.

  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 8:26 pm

    Goll says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 8:15 pm
    More bullshit Nath
    ___________________
    Looks like you misspoke Goll. Pretty effective rebuttal from recon.
    ________
    I think it was Goll who predicted Shorten 100+ seats in 2019. It’s not called a Gollism for nothing!

  3. I can’t think of a reason why they won’t sign a sworn statement:

    [‘St George Illawarra’s Zac Lomax and Daniel Alvaro are the two Dragons players who have indicated they won’t sign the NRL’s sworn statement regarding the events that unfolded at Paul Vaughan’s house party more than a week ago.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/revealed-the-two-dragons-players-that-won-t-sign-sworn-statement-20210711-p588q8.html

    As regards De Belin allegedly hiding under a bed when police raided a party at Vaughan’s home, I’ve yet to see a cartoon on the subject. When Bligh was removed from office during the Rum Rebellion he was depicted, by an unknown artist, in watercolour hiding under his bed, regarded as the first political cartoon in the Colony, and could also be said to be the first instance of propaganda. I wonder if De Belin will recover?

  5. Hey Lib supporters, can you call the PMs office to find out where Scotty is hiding these days, apparently he is the PM still, just not sure anymore?

  9. I didn’t know that I had a ‘faction’.

    We need to administer 40 million doses to get to 80% immunity. So far, 9 million have been administered over 4.5 months, so we need another 31 million. We are currently administering about 900,000 per week. At this rate it will take about 34 weeks to get to 80%, so second quarter next year. Given the lack of any published targets or schedules and a farrago of obfuscation, vague promises, half-truths and lies from the Government regarding future vaccine supplies, that’s probably as good an estimate as any.

  10. Victor Scholar @ #3445 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:20 pm

    Dear Grimace, Do you have a perdition of how many seats can win in the next election? Also any seats that they might come close to winning? Your information would more informative than some newspaper predictions! You know the areas where there could be gains for Labor.
    I would be very pleased to hear your thoughts. Thanking you

    After embarrassing myself last time, for the time being, I’ll stick to making predictions about seats I understand better.

    Hasluck (Ken Wyatt) where I’ve been redistributed into will be a tough fight if Wyatt runs again, and pencil in a Labor win if he doesn’t. Hasluck is largely unchanged except for a small suburb from Cowan, the very left-leaning parts of Pearce it picks up (Dayton, Brabham and Whiteman) and the historically volatile Ellenbrook.

    In terms of equivalent state seats for the areas Hasluck picks up, Labor is on a 27% (Swan Hills) and 34% (West Swan) margin. These voters are certainly not Labor averse. Ellenbrook, Brabham, Whiteman and Dayton will be the difference in Hasluck. Whoever wins them, will take Hasluck.

  14. The panic in GladysB and the CHO is palpable.

    It’s going to be a tough road getting this outbreak under control.

    What could well transpire within the next 2 to 4 weeks is that where covid is not circulating such as the northern beaches, they may get out of lockdown sooner than other places.

    GladysB leadership may be challenged and a review into how this outbreak was handled conducted.

    There is going to be a lot of anger due to the pain and suffering that is yet to come.

  15. Victoria

    It shouldn’t be too hard. We all know the outbreak occurred because the NSW government allowed a limo driver to a) not have sufficient protection, b) not be vaccinated and c) travel in a small vehicle with limited air. All of which the work experience student could have figured out.

    Why was there no one in NSW Health proactively taking measures to avoid this? Why was the Avalon outbreak not enough to provoke the correct response?

  17. Madeleine Morris
    @Mad_Morris
    ·
    4h
    Everyone goes on about how great the 80s AIDS ads were. They also massively contributed to stigma of ppl living with HIV. Why stigmatise young people who can’t even get a vaccine? How about one for the 60-70 year old refusers who still haven’t got one months into their rollout?
    Quote Tweet

  19. Can people stop banging on about the UEFA Cup that they believe Italy and England are playing the final of on Monday morning. The UEFA Cup was scrapped in about 2012. It was club competition that was re badged as the Europa League. Villareal beat man United last season to win it. Italy and England will be contesting the final of the European Nation’s Cup Final.

  20. On the question of how Gladys and her team stuffed it so badly, my theory is that after a year of being verbally felated by the press, they genuinely believed the spin about NSW being “special.”

  21. Victoria
    The ads I remember were a bit ‘good grief ! ‘ . ‘Little old ladies’ being bowled over by bowling balls courtesy of the grim reaper. I also remember the person responsible for that ad’s first name. Siimon. Another good grief ! as he added the extra ‘i’ because it did wonders for the numerology of his name 😆

  24. Grimace:

    Any thoughts on how the backlash against the Libs in the last state election might translate federally?

  30. Yes I saw this report on channel nine news tonight.
    This together with the Kevin Rudd revelations,
    And the worm turning against GladysB, is tres interesting to say the least.

    PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    2h
    Channel 9 covering carpark rorts in its Victoria bulletin. Not holding back, saying billions of “your money” is being wasted on “government corruption.” Scathing coverage, particularly critical of Josh Frydenberg.

  31. Porter the rorter.

    On the house

    Christian Porter took 17 months to declare the sale of an investment property, a blunder his office has blamed on an ‘administrative oversight’.

  34. Just checking the SmearStralian, and they are leading with Wally Wallpaper morphing into our saviour – huge if true!

    FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PACKAGE

    PM’s Covid rescue mission
    The federal government will step in to help support businesses crippled by Sydney’s lockdown – in a marked shift in policy underscoring the threat to the ­national economy.
    3 MINUTES AGO By STEPHEN RICE, GREG BROWN

  35. Israel offers Covid vaccine booster shots to at-risk adults
    Third Pfizer jabs made available to those with weak immune systems as Delta variant fuels rise in infections
    Israel 3 – Aust 1

  36. I see Liberal von Turdpolisher has been hard at work tonight.

    Wherein C@tmomma, as ever, indulges in the exact same behaviour that she’s forever decrying in others.

  37. Asha

    “On the question of how Gladys and her team stuffed it so badly, my theory is that after a year of being verbally felated by the press, they genuinely believed the spin about NSW being “special.””

    Yes, and believing that contact tracing is a magic shield that won’t suddenly fall apart when you get beyond a certain threshold. But I also feel its about Gladys living in a bubble with certain business interests, Scomo and worst of all, those Federal bureaucrats and associated “experts”. Who were all group thinking that you can solve everything with contact tracing.

    Explains Gladys’s frequent remarks this year telling us whenever there was a quarantine breach “expect this to happen again”.

    That says either hubris (it’ll happen but my magic gold plated tracers will take care of it) or worse, the desire to have these sorts of failures in the belief that this would normalise constant outbreaks and get us all ready and used to “living with the virus”.

    If the latter, I suspect its an attitude that gets talked about in certain circles.. again those Feds and certain “experts”. They probably talk about this openly. Just not on camera.

  38. Sprocket

    It was always a given that Morrison would assist his home state. Truth be known NSW are going to need it. This lockdown is looking to extend into Spring.

  39. Interestingly from that article.. Rudd is quoted as saying..

    “Speaking on my own initiative, I floated the possibility of Australia perhaps seeking a large-scale advance order of Pfizer’s 2022 vaccine “booster” which, from what I have read, is still under development.”

    That’s an excellent proposition. I wonder if Brendan/Hunt had even thought of that.

  40. You can’t run a long lockdown without financial support. NSW needs it. If NSW doesn’t get on top of this we are all in deep shit.

  41. William Bowe @ #3483 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 9:33 pm

    I see Liberal von Turdpolisher has been hard at work tonight.

    Wherein C@tmomma, as ever, indulges in the exact same behaviour that she’s forever decrying in others.

    But proportionately less so. Honestly, don’t you see that? Don’t you get that someone like Lars von Trier does it the majority of their time on here, and never seems to be rebuked by you what’s more, yet I do it once because I come back here after a few hours away doing more normal things, only to find that Lars von Trier has turned their attack on grimace, which you said nothing about, and then has been constantly gloating about a vaccination rollout that is an acknowledged shambles and then turned their beady eyes on Kevin Rudd and gotten straight down to denigrating him for the selfless effort he made to help the country.

    To say I find it immensely frustrating is understating it. But hey, what about me?

    I mean, you couldn’t even find it in yourself to ban the guy after he spent untold weeks smarmily insinuating that I enjoyed anal sex and that I was a lush. Both absolutely and thoroughly unfounded allegations. But hey, what about me? Sometimes I wonder if you are reflective enough to realise things like that? Or simply reflexive against some but not others.

  42. Sussan Ley added an extra S to her name for much the same reason that Siimon Reynolds did. Ie no reason based in science, fact or reason.
    She’s only the environment minister..

  43. Asha Leusays:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 9:14 pm
    Grimace:

    Any thoughts on how the backlash against the Libs in the last state election might translate federally?
    *************

    Probably little directly. The weight of a three term government will have more of an impact.

    There will be practical issues for campaigning due to the Liberal wipeout and a lack of available help from state members.

  44. Victoria

    Yes, the media has caught on that the public didn’t like the carpark rort.

    And as much as I don’t like Gladys I’m scared of what would happen if she were knifed.

  46. Naveen Razik
    @naveenjrazik
    ·
    7m
    The Prime Minister’s popularity falls from +27% to +18% on the #newspoll #auspol

  47. Cud:

    And as much as I don’t like Gladys I’m scared of what would happen if she were knifed.

    Agreed. She deserves the heat she’s copping for this mess, but I genuinely hope she makes it through any spills that may happen in coming weeks. If Perrottet gets his way, things could become very grim indeed.

  48. In the OZ. Which I don’t have a subscription:

    Morrison slides as women turn away

    Scott Morrison has suffered a 10-point slide in his approval rating led by women and resource state voters as the election contest is reshaped by pandemic politics.

  50. I do find it amusing that a couple of years ago when I introduced to here the concept of ‘Disaster Politics’ in relation to Shorten and Beaconsfield I was mocked. Of course, even I didn’t know that soon Disaster Politics would take over everything.

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