Essential Research leadership and COVID polling

The shine continues to come off Scott Morrison’s COVID-boosted personal ratings, plus new evidence of a softening in support for the Coalition among women.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.

Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”

Comments Page 62 of 71
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  1. Lars Von Trier @ #853 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:15 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:10 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #834 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:00 pm

    zoomster says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:55 am
    Lars

    Admitting you’re a troll?

    Fair enough.
    ___________________
    Sometimes I think its a shame stupid isn’t painful.
    Because you’d be in a world of pain.
    ____________________
    Whatever c@t.

    Tell us one of your amazing coincidence stories again – you know how you nearly caught covid, how you were almost evacuated during the bushfires? etc etc

    I rest my case.


  2. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 11:38 am
    Scott Morrison should be lending a hand but he’s ‘armless.

    LOL I’m still incredulous the health minister’s surname is Hazard!

    And opposed Lockdown at least in the initial stages. And also for saying ‘Delta virus ‘ ” will have life of its own” in recent presser.
    In the initial stages of this current outbreak, when Sydney had less than 10 cases daily and lockdown being not declared and he was in self isolation due to be in casual contact with agriculture minister ‘Adam Marshall’ , in an interview with Wendy Harmer on ABC 702 radio morning show he clearly stated there won’t be a lockdown.

  3. boerwar

    But only a couple of weeks ago Gladys was deploying common sense when doing the ‘please’ phase of the Clayton’s Lockdown.

    And I bet 2GB and The Daily Tellsmecrap reptiles were over the moon at so much common sense being applied. Judging by the choice of photo today by the Tellsmecrap Gladys may have stopped dispensing ‘common sense’ 🙂

  4. Lars,

    From my point of view you are bullying and harassing C@t, when the long durée trend of your posts are considered.

    I have often felt like saying something, but do not want to start new arguments.

    Do you think you could stop personally addressing derogatory posts to her?

    It would do a great service to harmony on the blog.

  5. I am having to engage my resilience app somewhat more than usual.

    We were optimistically planning to change our travel patterns a fortnight after our second AZ.

    High on the bucket list was to go to Vic and spend some time with close family, including grandchildren, most of whom we have not seen for over a year.

    Unfortunately, the ACT gets tarred with the Gladys brush by third states and territories. This makes good sense to me because of the extensive traffic between the ACT and NSW.
    We just happen to be collateral.

  6. GladysB is no doubt being shown modelling.

    She needs to show the public at the next presser.

    Explain to them how the behaviour of the populace will affect how long it will take to drive down transmission.

    She needs to explain this clearly and simply.

    The public will understand and accept what is needed to be done.

  7. Douglas and Milko @ #2889 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:18 pm

    Lars,

    From my point of view you are bullying and harassing C@t, when the long durée trend of your posts are considered.

    I have often felt like saying something, but do not want to start new arguments.

    Do you think you could stop personally addressing derogatory posts to her?

    It would do a great service to harmony on the blog.

    Plus 100

  8. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:05 pm
    poroti @ #3004 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 9:42 am

    Kerry trying to blame those darn ‘ethnics’, what with all their ‘extended families’ and all ? Oh dear.
    Just shows a lack of cultural awareness and not clearly defining what you are referring to.

    A total misrepresentation of what Chant said & implied

    Chant said she had spent a lot of time in SW sydney
    Fully aware of the importance of wider family ties in that community
    Said in normal times that was a very good thing
    Extended family contacts in this time were a danger.

  9. @timdunlop tweets

    Covid isn’t going away for a long time, whatever happens in Sydney over the next few months, whatever happens with vaccines. We have to completely change our approach to support payments, ‘mutual obligations’ & the like so people forced into lockdown are protected from the start

    There needs to be an income floor, instantly available to everyone who needs it.
    Should be a standard part of our approach to welfare in general.
    The discipline and punish approach has to end.

    ___________________

    @sallymcmanus tweeted

    The union movement demanded JobKeeper & won over the resistance of the Fed Govt. The Morrison Govt never liked wage subsidies & rushed to stop it early. Now workers & businesses in Syd left unsupported. Melb had this support during lockdown, Syd should as well
    #insiders

  10. I think Kakuru – what your implication seems to be is – along the lines of the NSW Government is weighing health advice against “business advice”.

    What does seem pretty clear through the pandemic is that the health advice has been the best business advice.

    I think its most likely been a case of more – we can manage this case or outbreak without lockdown type measures. Its clear that hasn’t worked in this case – but has pretty much worked in every other instance in the last 16 months in NSW.

    Its also clear that NSW has taken more risks with returnees than any other States – especially Victoria. Thats a tough issue too – who would begrudge someone travelling to visit a dying parent? Yet it is also clear some business leaders have had business meetings and also family related travel – and others have had 3 or 4 family related trips in that time.

    I remember when Australia shut flights from India due to the delta variant – and the loud cries of discrimination (including on here), that seems like it was a sensible measure which should have been continued.

  11. Hence why Victoria implemented no visitors to home unless it was for caring situation.
    They then created a bubble for those living alone.

  12. boerwar
    On the plus side, it is Victoria and not NSW on ‘The List’ . You have a fighting chance rather than the plan being (in my best private Frazer voice) Doomed !

  13. LVT @ 11.58am:

    The reality is Metro Perth or Adelaide can lock down for 3 days and no one really notices – locking down Sydney has real economic impacts.

    The conclusion one draws from this statement is that NSW should not do lockdowns, or as quickly as WA or SA, because NSW is the economic powerhouse of the nation. (Funny, I thought we were riding on the Iron Ore Mine’s back in WA?)

    Next we got this:
    I’d be very surprised if Gladys did anything other than follow the health advice – as a politician why would you do anything but?

    When, as a r pointed out, the health advice was coming thick and fast that NSW should have been locked down hard sooner than it eventually was. So the conclusion one can only draw is that Gladys Berejiklian ‘follows the health advice’ when it suits her but prefers to keep the economic engine running if it doesn’t and only follows it if absolutely necessary.

  14. Remember the bbq guy in Sydney. NSW had no clue as to how he and then his partner contracted the virus. Despite him travelling all around the CBD, he didnt infect others.

    That is what happens sometimes.
    Luck does sometimes play a part.

  15. The reality is Metro Perth or Adelaide can lock down for 3 days and no one really notices – locking down Sydney has real economic impacts.
    ———————
    Sounds like a good reason to escalate the importance of a less leaky quarantine.

    I do wonder how much of the Sydney economy can still be effectively done from home. Certainly not all. And certainly not as efficiently. And certainly not easy with kids homeschooling in smaller houses.

    And…. certainly much harder over longer lockdowns…. maybe far less impact for a three day shut as you think?

  16. We can’t seem to hurry the supply of jabs in arms, but couldn’t something be done about those speedy covid tests we keep hearing about?

  17. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:24 pm

    boerwar
    On the plus side, it is Victoria and not NSW on ‘The List’ . You have a fighting chance rather than the plan being (in my best private Frazer voice) Doomed !’
    ______________________________
    Yep. We’re also increasingly concerned that some of our near relatives are trapped in Morrison’s and Hunt’s AZ/Pfiser Gap.

  18. I have a suspicion that Berejiklian was relying not the notoriously sunny and mild Sydney winters, coupled with our insistence on sitting at out door table no matter what the weather to damp down the spread of COVID. coupled with our generally high humidity, models show that COVID does not spread so welling these conditions.

    Unfortunately, this year has been the coldest and dreariest winter I can remember for a long time, and Sydney-siders flocked to Ikea, Bunnings and shopping malls to get out of the cold. I knowI did, taking there to days as a chance to buy “rare”purchases such as sheets, towels, curtains and clothes. This was in the first week of the Bondi cluster, but we did not know it existed at the time.

    Also, son is driving grandson (in sealed car) around Centennial park to get him to sleep. He said that the park is full of “two people exercising together”, who just happen to be in meta-groups of groups of 10 or more.

  19. We dont have to look to last year.

    NT WA QLD and VIC had outbreaks recently.
    They went in quickly and hard.
    NSW chose not to do so whilst deriding the other states.

    It has exploded in their face.

    Unfortunately it is the people that will bear the cost.

  20. Thanks Douglas and Milko, Vic and ‘fess. I try but they just don’t quit. There’s obviously something wrong with them that they keep on doing it.You ignore it, it keeps on happening. You don’t ignore it, it keeps on happening. It just keeps on happening! 🙂

  21. Yeah c@t the bullied martyr – who never attacks others!

    Tell that to pegasus , quoll , player 1 and many others!

  22. Kakura,

    My take is that the NSW Government selected as advisors people that would give them the sort of advice they wanted to hear.

    There is no doubt that the NSW Government is business oriented and that philosophically they are more inclined to support business interests and that the Government is more susceptible to advice coming business and media against the prospect of a lockdown.

    They also felt that a managed approach was the best way to deal with the pandemic.

    There was also a deal of hubris and arrogance about Victoria’s approach to dealing with a major outbreak of Covid. NSW did not want to take advice or learn anything from the Victorian experience.

    Almost a year on, NSW is faced with an outbreak that is 5 times more infectious and a population that is complacent and unco-operative. You reap what you sew. And, apart from an imploring Premier it is unclear whether NSW as a whole understands that the situation is serious and may become deadly serious in coming days.

  23. C@t

    As an example, LVT said something meant to be insulting. To draw fire, I deliberately pretended not to understand, but you jumped in to explain what was meant and spoilt my plan. You react too quickly, my dear.

  24. Also, son is driving grandson (in sealed car) around Centennial park to get him to sleep. He said that the park is full of “two people exercising together”, who just happen to be in meta-groups of groups of 10 or more.

    Yep, my son just observed, ‘how come there’s all these people around, ‘exercising’, that aren’t wearing masks and passing by others really closely?’

  25. C@t:

    As I keep repeating, the only reason you are targetted is because you keep responding to their baiting.

    Just ignore them. Besides, who cares what LVT thinks about anything?

  26. Also, son is driving grandson (in sealed car) around Centennial park to get him to sleep. He said that the park is full of “two people exercising together”

    Phew !Until the next bit I thought it was a euphemism 🙂

    , who just happen to be in meta-groups of groups of 10 or more.

  27. However, when you see what turned up @12.34pm, you are sorely tempted to put some perspective out there. But I won’t because it reeks of hypocrisy.

  28. @RohanLeppert tweets

    NSW Police declaring they need to be ‚much firmer than fairer’ in enforcing public health orders is some scary shit. A recipe for harm against poorer people, people of colour, people with English as an additional language.

    COVID should not be extra license for discriminatory policing. But that’s exactly what we saw in Melbourne and it‘s distressing to see Sydney do the same, if more overtly.

    (Drippers need not reply.)

    Stay safe Sydney

  29. GG

    I have never lived in NSW, so can’t judge, but is the Sydney psyche so different from Victoria? Are they unwilling to obey orders? Or is it the weather?

  30. Confessions @ #888 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:37 pm

    C@t:

    As I keep repeating, the only reason you are targetted is because you keep responding to their baiting.

    Just ignore them. Besides, who cares what LVT thinks about anything?

    I do because, as you can see for yourself at 12.34pm, he just doesn’t quit. I simply don’t want the blog poisoned with it. And that is probably a vain hope I know because as I said before there’s something wrong that I can’t fix with people like that.

    … So ignore it? Incredibly frustrating and hard to do when it just keeps happening, ignored or not ignored.

  31. Phew !Until the next bit I thought it was a euphemism
    ————
    Exercise is natural, exercise is good. Not everybody does it but everybody should?

  32. lizzie @ #892 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:41 pm

    GG

    I have never lived in NSW, so can’t judge, but is the Sydney psyche so different from Victoria? Are they unwilling to obey orders? Or is it the weather?

    It seems to be. If you listened to the Deputy Commissioner of Police he said that people were actively trying to find loopholes to get around the Public Health Orders, or just not obeying them at all, and gave 3 examples. I think the only people like that in Victoria are the Karens.

  33. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:38 pm

    Also, son is driving grandson (in sealed car) around Centennial park to get him to sleep. He said that the park is full of “two people exercising together”

    Phew !Until the next bit I thought it was a euphemism

    , who just happen to be in meta-groups of groups of 10 or more.’
    ________________________________
    In Sinny it might still be a euphemism.

  34. Confessions @ #3081 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:37 pm

    C@t:

    As I keep repeating, the only reason you are targetted is because you keep responding to their baiting.

    Just ignore them. Besides, who cares what LVT thinks about anything?

    Give me a spell.

    They love engaging each other.

    The majority of the PB community are heartily sick of it I’d guess.

  35. Lars / Recon:

    I used to call out C@t’s behaviour a lot in the past. I’m often still tempted to do so.

    You know why I generally don’t these days? It’s because you two pathetic twats spend so much time trolling her that it seems needlessly cruel to add to the pile-on.

  36. As some have already pointed out here, Andrews is open to criticism like any other politician.
    What gets up the nose of some us who are not LNP supporters is the ability of the LNP and their apologists here to speak out of both sides of their mouth at the same time.
    So, we got “We are all in it together” crap from Morrison coupled with unprincipled attacks on Andrews from the likes of Murdoch, Credlin, Victorian Liberals and sundry ratbags here at the height of the lock-down in Victoria, trying has hard as they could to play the hard political game while offering themselves as compassionate conservatives.
    It still amazes me that the LNP manages to get just over 4 in 10 of the voting population actually vote for them and some of these, I know, are actually quite nice and intelligent people.

  37. Cat

    It’s a twitter term for people who took up a particular campaign about water on twitter by adding a drip emoji to their handle.

    It’s implying people who are rusted on sheep that don’t think for themselves.

  38. What is the difference between Morrison and Barty?
    1. Barty is the best.
    2. Barty is humble.
    3. Barty is a woman.
    4. Barty is Indigenous.
    5. Barty works with her team.
    6. Barty is open.
    7. Barty is gracious when winning.
    8. Barty is gracious when losing.
    9. Barty understands history.
    And so on and so forth.
    Chalk and cheese.

  39. lizzie @ #3085 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 12:41 pm

    GG

    I have never lived in NSW, so can’t judge, but is the Sydney psyche so different from Victoria? Are they unwilling to obey orders? Or is it the weather?

    I believe so. If you listened to the Deputy Commissioner of Police today he said that people were actively trying to find loopholes to get around the Health Orders, or just not obeying them at all, and he gave 3 examples. Whereas, in Victoria it’s only the small minority of Karens that behave that way.

  40. As it’s Sunday…

    Research specialist, Neil Francis, has completed an academic analysis of religion in society to produced a 152-page in-depth study; Religiosity in Australia. The findings are stark, with political ramifications that run deep.

    “At the 2016 census, 60% of Australians indicated an affiliation with a religious denomination. This is widely assumed a reliable headline indication of Australians’ religiosity. It isn’t. Bias in the census religion question leads to overstatement of affiliation on weak family historical grounds, rather than actual religious belief and practice.”

    Patently, ABS is not interested in collecting current “here and now” data on the religious beliefs of Australians – and we shall ask “why” shortly. In ‘Religiosity in Australia’ Neil Francis again points to how the data is corrupted.

    “When expressly asked if they ‘belong’ to their religious organisation, a majority – 62 percent of Australians – say they don’t, including 24 percent Catholics, 44 percent of Anglicans.”

    These are alarming statistics when ABS recorded just 30 percent ‘No Religion’ in 2016. And Dr Andy Marks, the vice-chancellor of Western Sydney University, says only 7.5 percent of MPs identify as “No Religion”. Measured against the realistic public figure at 62 percent, citizens are a staggering 8 times less religious than federal MPs.

    Creating a false picture of religiosity in Australia has allowed governments to hand out billions in additional taxpayer funds to wealthy churches to run their private religious enterprises in nation-wide education, health, welfare and aged care – most of which has little to do with genuine charity or public service.

    https://theaimn.com/corrupted-census-data-on-religion-gifts-billions-to-churches/

  41. Douglas and Milko

    Haven’t had to deal with this personally, but had a close friend who had both parents with dementia (fortunately? not at the same time – his father developed it after his mother died).

    He was determined not to put his father in a home.

    Sold the family home so he could quit work, became gradually more and more isolated from friends and family (his father developed an aversion for my husband, which saw him try to walk home…last visit), and was nearly driven batty himself by his father’s behaviour (his father slept in 30 minute bursts, work friend up each time, then went straight back to sleep..)

    End result, father had to go into a home, had no idea who his son was, and my friend was left unemployed and homeless.

    Lesson – he should have put his father in a home a lot, lot earlier, when he still had some assets and a chance of a life.

    Hope you take this in the spirit that it’s meant!

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