Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. Cud,
    I think if there’s a lockdown in Sydney, then the vaccine stuffup will come into focus. This is where I would suggest Albo really start throwing some heat. I know they’ve been on about this, but they need to be more punchy IMO.

    If people on the north shore of Sydney have to endure a lockdown for more than 7 days. I think the tide will turn.

  2. south

    The problem is that a lockdown in Sydney will be a) too localised and b) too late. Repeating the same mistakes they made in Melbourne last year.

    Most likely Gladys will tough it out and most likely we’ll get lucky. Therefore the stuff-up with Pfizer last July won’t get into the mainstream.

    One thing that might push the debate along is continued supply shortage pushed by more demand for vaccination, pushed by Sydney having more cases.

  4. “southsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 9:11 pm
    Cud,
    I think if there’s a lockdown in Sydney, then the vaccine stuffup will come into focus. This is where I would suggest Albo really start throwing some heat. I know they’ve been on about this, but they need to be more punchy IMO.

    If people on the north shore of Sydney have to endure a lockdown for more than 7 days. I think the tide will turn.”

    Come on! We’re only up to day three of SMH’s “Days of Gladys’ Love Life’ serial. Tomorrow we may find out what her parents think of “Mr Perfect”. And I really want to know what Dazza thinks of him, too. And Biff wants to ask “Does he have a key to her back door and can come and go as he pleases?”

    There are so many much more important and unanswered questions about this. Who gives a flying f..k about a Covid outbreak?

    /sarcasm alert

  7. The Coalition has been egregiously negligent and incompetent in its response to Covid, especially the vaccine rollout where we are at least three months behind where we should be as the Virus mutates and keeps breaking out. Rollout is proceeding at a snail’s pace, we have most of our eggs in the AZ basket and there no apparent plan. Not only that but the Morrison Government has failed dismally in its other Covid responsibilities – quarantine, accepted in default by the States, and aged care (ditto). Also border control – remember the Ruby Princess?

    Labor needs to shout this from the rooftops.

  8. Who gives a flying fig about who Gladys is porking!?!

    What is this? Days of Our Premier’s Life!?!

    Oh, I forgot. yes it is. Ugly Duckling Gladys becomes Premier Swan. 🙄

  12. C@tmomma,
    Try and have empathy for those who are different from yourself.

    I don’t even see that much ALP on the ABC these days. So how are the punters meant to start making connections.

    Or is this a keeping the powder dry sort of tactic

  13. The SMH has a lot more to write on the fairytale love story.

    Who makes the best wedding gown befitting a premier?
    Where should a premier honeymoon?
    The best locale for a premier’s hen’s night?
    Who will be invited to the big event?

    This story has a long way to run yet.

  15. ”
    Scottsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 8:11 pm
    davidwh says:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 7:50 pm
    It’s not the party with the most seats that automatically forms government but the party, or combination of parties, that is able to guarantee the confidence of the parliament. That’s not an unusual circumstance throughout the world.

    ————————————

    I agree , am not disagreeing on how government is form

    What i am disagreeing on ,is technically what is a majority government and a government which is form by other parties or members .

    This is what i call a majority government for the liberal party

    2013 federal election , The liberal party won enough seats in the house of reps to govern alone , they did not need the National party at all to form government

    This is what i call a minority government for the liberal party

    2016 federal election , Where the Liberal Party lost too many seats to be able to govern alone and needed the national party
    ”

    When the Constitution was written they did not consider a party to form government. There is no such thing as Prime Minister in the Constitution. A person who has the confidence of Majority of members in HOR will form the government and that person and his/her council of Ministers will serve the Crown (King/Queen) of United Kingdom.

    What I mean is that each electorate will elect a member of HOR and they then elect the person to lead the government. A party is concept which came later. This is what happened in UK and it was adapted for Australia because it was colony of UK.

  17. ”
    Rossmcgsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 8:23 pm
    God, remember when the sky was tipped To fall in under the Gillard minority government?
    Never lost a vote of confidence (which is what counts) passed a ton of meaningful legislation and drove the Liberals and their cheersquad mad.
    Minority governments and loose coalitions can be found all over the world.
    Who would have thought a bunch of widely disparate parties could combine to get rid of Netanyahu?
    ”

    Correct me if I am wrong as far as I can remember Gillard government passed about 440 pieces of legislation.

  18. ”
    ”
    Rossmcgsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 8:23 pm
    God, remember when the sky was tipped To fall in under the Gillard minority government?
    Never lost a vote of confidence (which is what counts) passed a ton of meaningful legislation and drove the Liberals and their cheersquad mad.
    Minority governments and loose coalitions can be found all over the world.
    Who would have thought a bunch of widely disparate parties could combine to get rid of Netanyahu?
    ”

    Correct me if I am wrong as far as I can remember Gillard government passed about 440 pieces of legislation.
    “

  19. “The best locale for a Premier’s hen’s night”?

    The local pond.

    That’s where all the bin chickens congregate.

  21. south @ #1215 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 9:33 pm

    C@tmomma,
    Try and have empathy for those who are different from yourself.

    I don’t even see that much ALP on the ABC these days. So how are the punters meant to start making connections.

    Or is this a keeping the powder dry sort of tactic

    What I see is people bringing to the blog various examples of Labor communicating with them, and other people they know who aren’t naturally sympathetic to the ALP, via methods other than the ABC.

    So if you aren’t seeing it maybe that’s not Labor’s fault.

    Sorry, but whenever you turn up you always play the same, predictable tune, despite, as I said, there being many instances that we see to prove your conclusions to be generally untrue. Also, if you are basing your assumptions on the ABC, then maybe you aren’t seeing as many Labor MPs because of the inherent bias of the ABC against Labor and in favour of the Coalition and other Right Wing politicians, which has been demonstrated over many years and on many of their programs, such as QandA, for just one example, where you often have at least two Right Wing types, politician plus commentator, to one ALP.

    However, I know that none of this can change your perspective because your perspective has never changed and I don’t expect it to.

  22. I was at my GP practice on Friday to get my first vaccine shot. This was two days after the age limit for AZ was raised to 60 (I’m nearly 70). I had considered cancelling -I’m not entirely comfortable with these creeping restrictions. First AZ is the good stuff. Then only for 50+. Now 60+. Maybe next month they’ll restrict it to over 70s or for emergency use only when there’s nothing better available.

    While waiting I overheard the receptionist taking a couple of cancellations and also telling a couple of callers that they won’t have more supplies of Pfizer until the end of July (5-6 weeks away). This is Third World stuff.

    Anyway, while I don’t trust the Federal Government, I still trust health authorities. I got my AZ shot. No side effects – so far so good.

  23. Shellbell @ #2376 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 6:07 pm

    My mate Andrew Gee to come through the middle, or around the side, or underneath or maybe over the top.

    Amazed if Littleproud does not benefit.

    So >>> one redneck moron replaced by another ?

    Meh.

    Same pile of merde, just different blowflies.

    Amusing – at the margins, maybe?

  24. A note for shellbell:

    David Crowe says Andrew gee is backing Barnaby Joyce.

    I think the Nats have Stockholm Syndrome.

  26. Rossmcgsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 8:23 pm
    God, remember when the sky was tipped To fall in under the Gillard minority government?
    —
    i remember grattan, m. repeatedly calling for her to resign, for the good of the country & her party, no less. something certain regulars at “the conversation” repeatedly remind her about in these days of morrison. -a.v.

  27. south @ #2311 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 8:59 pm

    You know,

    If I were Dutton and the rest of the liberals, I’d be thinking that spilling against Promo would be a good way to pin him with the blame of the Vaccine stuff-ups and to reset the agenda. All they’d need to do is pay through the nose to super charge our supply of Pfizer and get everyone done before xmas and call an election for late Feb next year on the coat tails of that success.

    If i were the ALP, I’d be hoping that happens, because Dutton won’t be able to hold himself back from getting really ugly and everyone will remember why they don’t like him.

    Anyway, anyone herd anything form dear Albo Lately?

    Who is this Albo you speak of?

  28. According to David Crowe, we have to wait and see whether a Vote of No Confidence in Michael McCormack is called for first. That means that, if the vote succeeds, anyone can throw their hat in the ring and David Littleproud can stand. Whereas if Barnaby Joyce challenges, then it’s mane e mane, Mick Mack versus Barnyard.

  30. Steve777 @ #2324 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 9:26 pm

    The Coalition has been egregiously negligent and incompetent in its response to Covid, especially the vaccine rollout where we are at least three months behind where we should be as the Virus mutates and keeps breaking out. Rollout is proceeding at a snail’s pace, we have most of our eggs in the AZ basket and there no apparent plan. Not only that but the Morrison Government has failed dismally in its other Covid responsibilities – quarantine, accepted in default by the States, and aged care (ditto). Also border control – remember the Ruby Princess?

    Labor needs to shout this from the rooftops.

    Labor needs to shout anything from the rooftops.
    A shopping list. Albo’s phone number. Anything.

  31. Isn’t there a separate thread that can be created for Tasmanians, and Player One, to take meaningless potshots at Albanese? They can shower each other with praise and the rest of us can get on with actually supporting Labor.

  34. citizen @ #2463 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 9:38 pm

    The SMH has a lot more to write on the fairytale love story.

    Who makes the best wedding gown befitting a premier?
    Where should a premier honeymoon?
    The best locale for a premier’s hen’s night?
    Who will be invited to the big event?

    This story has a long way to run yet.

    Will 9’s businesses premises be made available for the wedding or ‘engagement’ party for yet another tory fund raiser ?

    9 Press motto – Never Independent !

  35. C@t,
    If supporting the team is the cult like willful ignorance of obvious weakness then sure, you do you.

    I don’t have the energy to withstand your one person brigading of discussion.

  37. The Toorak Toff @ #2261 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 6:39 pm

    Labor is not really interested in winning the federal election. It had months to pick a candidate and campaign in ultra-marginal Boothby before the Libs found a replacement for Nicolle Flint. It sat on its hands.

    Now the Libs have a well-qualified Labor-lite candidate to replace the hardline Flint and will hit the ground running any moment now.

    Labor, meanwhile, is still indulging in factional games. Boothby’s supposed to be a Left seat but the Left can’t find a candidate it seems. The Right has a bright, energetic young woman, Joe Dawkins’ daughter Alice, on mission impossible challenging the Right’s pea, a union organiser, in the preselection for the safe seat of Spence.

    If it wasn’t all so sad you’d have to break out laughing.

    ‘Labor is not really interested in winning the federal election. ‘
    Labor, born to be ruled.

  39. Also enjoying Jack Irish.

    Watching episode 3 on iView.

    Couldn’t resist.

    “Bless me Father, for I have sinned…”

  42. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 10:11 pm

    The fact that jokeshot and whinger were not re-elected shows they betrayed their electorates.

  44. Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 10:08 pm
    What happened to Kay Jay?
    I’ve rarely been on here for the last few weeks.

    Passed away…….. sadly a heart attack.

  45. Jack Irish is OK as far as these faux gritty shows go, similar to Good Guys Bad Guys in the 90s.

    Does Guy Pearce, an alumni of Geelong College, pull off being a debt collector in inner Melbourne? Nope.

  46. Ven says:
    Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 9:46 pm

    Most of those were administrative type bills passed with the support of the Opposition as is usual in most parliaments.

  49. south @ #1238 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 10:07 pm

    C@t,
    If supporting the team is the cult like willful ignorance of obvious weakness then sure, you do you.

    I don’t have the energy to withstand your one person brigading of discussion.

    Yes, sorry, south, your take on things political is so much more sophisticated than mine. I know not what I do. How could I be so stupid as to disagree with you? Naughty me. I should just follow the sign that you, mundo and Player One have-‘Abandon hope all ye who enter here because unless a Labor Leader has the rapier wit of a Keating or the oratorical bravura of Whitlam, mashed together with the boyish brio of Hawkie, they are simply a capital ‘L’ Loser.’

    I’ll go and say 50 Hail Marys and repent my sins.

    Btw, have you sent the letter to federal Labor yet telling THEM to abandon all hope? Be consistent!

  50. C@tmomma @ #2481 Sunday, June 20th, 2021 – 10:02 pm

    Isn’t there a separate thread that can be created for Tasmanians, and Player One, to take meaningless potshots at Albanese? They can shower each other with praise and the rest of us can get on with actually supporting Labor.

    Feeling left out again, C@t? Got rained on by Datsun Cogs?

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