Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. The Libs clearly have little confidence in the Australian Border Force to identify and safely return asylum seekers.

    That’s the only reason they maintain offshore asylum seeker prisons.

    It seems Labor shares this position, which is regrettable.

  2. Looks like inside MOE country.

    With a sample size of 1,600, the MOE is about 2.5% for the Labor and Coalition primary votes.

  3. FTR – I’m opposed to mandatory detention and always have been. I’m certainly not for open borders, and there is absolutely a desperate need to increase our refugee intake to make sure that people fleeing do not resort to the very high-risk approach.

    The other side is that with the family on Christmas Island is that this is human, this is a family that people can relate to. It’s been excellent to see the community respond to the cruelty of this situation. BUT… this one family isn’t going to change the core community view about “boat people” – this is still a net vote loser for Labor. Public perceptions have not markedly changed, therefore the political calculus hasn’t either.

    What Labor gains in urban seats where they’re in direct competition with the Greens to hold their own on this, they lose in suburban and regional seats they need to gain to win. This is the cause of the split internally. The Greens are messaging this because they know Labor is stuck… or wedged.

    Labor cannot wedge the LNP on this and it work out for them, unless Labor suddenly become expert communicators on issues where they are perceived by the broader community as weak/vulnerable. And… I’m waiting on climate policy to work itself out.

  4. jt341983

    Ending Mandatory Detention wedges the LNP.
    It turns boat people into plane arrivals visibility

    That’s why they are so desperate over this family. They know the cruelty is over with the end of Mandatory Detention

  5. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 1:48 pm
    jt341983

    Ending Mandatory Detention wedges the LNP.
    It turns boat people into plane arrivals visibility

    That’s why they are so desperate over this family. They know the cruelty is over with the end of Mandatory Detention

    Mandatory detention is a consequence of human trafficking. The trafficking has been arrested.

  6. “Interesting that Bret Walker SC is bearding the Tory Legal Lions in their own den.”

    Not all Tory

    “Speakers at the seminar include three prominent lawyers—Bret Walker AO SC, Margaret Cunneen SC, and Malcolm Stewart—as well as Ron Hoenig MP NSW, and Chris Merritt (Rule of Law Society VP and Former Legal Affairs Editor, The Australian).

  7. @crikey_news tweets

    Our paywall is DOWN ’til the end of June so you can dig deeper and see what independent news looks like.

    Here’s one of our most-read from the archive – the Seven Mountains mandate and how the PM is changing Australia in God’s name, by @d_hardaker #auspol

  8. N

    No.

    The Biloela family being in the community proves you wrong.

    How long have you been in favour of abusing children to send a message?

  9. @AmyRemeikis tweets

    Greens came pretty close to pulling an upset in the House – a motion to have companies who made a profit while receiving Jobkeeper was tied 72-72 after the entire crossbench (including Katter and Kelly) joined the Greens and Labor, forcing Tony Smith to use his casting vote

  10. William

    Why is my tweet quote in moderation? It’s a quote tweet from a journalist on a motion in the HOR.

    I posted because it’s 72-72

  11. “Labor cannot wedge the LNP on this and it work out for them, unless Labor suddenly become expert communicators on issues where they are perceived by the broader community as weak/vulnerable.”

    It would also help if large sections of the media turned suddenly switched sides to become pro-Labor, even to the extent of actively campaigned for it.

  12. guytaur,

    The Biloela family has nothing to do with mandatory detention.

    They were placed in detention, rightly or wrongly, after their the asylum claims were rejected.

  13. [‘Ben Roberts-Smith has broken down describing how when he walks down the street now other people “think I hit a woman”.

    He also described being “scared” for his children after articles published about a rogue SAS soldier named “Leonidas” clearly identified him, partly because of a tattoo on his torso.

    “It crushes my soul,” he said. “I couldn’t protect my kids which is extremely hard to take.“I’ve had moments in my last three years that I just didn’t think it’s worth it.”]

    A tat of Leonadis on his torso, who of course led the Greeks in the battle of Thermopylae – an apt hero for a fellow hero. I can only hope that Roberts-Smith recovers soon from his suffering and gets out a bit more; perhaps even consider dating again. And those shocking rumours about him hiring a private eye to check if a former girlfriend had had an abortion are yet another example of those who would bring this man down, their envy, jealously of him palpable.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/ben-robertssmith-says-his-tattoo-identified-him-as-anonymous-soldier/news-story/6200a0e035a7042820cd4005688a4f42

  14. The family were placed in detention under a policy of mandatory detention.

    According to Barney this has nothing to do with the policy of mandatory detention.

  15. Shellbell @ #211 Wednesday, June 16th, 2021 – 1:53 pm

    “Interesting that Bret Walker SC is bearding the Tory Legal Lions in their own den.”

    Not all Tory

    “Speakers at the seminar include three prominent lawyers—Bret Walker AO SC, Margaret Cunneen SC, and Malcolm Stewart—as well as Ron Hoenig MP NSW, and Chris Merritt (Rule of Law Society VP and Former Legal Affairs Editor, The Australian).

    Looks pretty Blue to me, but then IANAL.

  16. Labor can MOST CERTAINLY wedge the Libs on border protection.

    This will require Labor calling out the Libs outrageously expensive offshore asylum seeker prisons they wish to maintain due to their lack of confidence in the ABF’s ability to identify and safely return maritime asylum seekers.

    The political position for Labor is to put complete faith in the ABF’s on-water border protection abilities and to provide all resources required.

  17. nath,

    Why weren’t they in detention before their asylum claims were rejected if their detention was mandatory?

  18. @AdamBandt tweets

    Watch out, billionaires!

    Parliament is only *one* vote away from making JobKeeper profiteers like Gerry Harvey pay back their public handouts.

    After the Senate backed the Greens push, we just had a tied vote in the House too.

    We’ll keep pushing!

    greens.org.au/campaigns/pay-…

  19. In the case of Canada, I’d be surprised if they have a boat people problem, as the Atlantic is far wider than the trip from Java to Christmas Island.

    not by sea, they walk in. in the first year of trump there were 50,000 *additional* illegal border crossings from the usa into canada by persons who claimed refugee status – 50,000 – they feared being deported back to their “sh!tholes” by trump’s goons before their cases were heard.

    coming from as far away florida or from as nearby as new york city or chicago, on the final leg of their journey they were transported, with their suitcases, to the border by american taxis who did a roaring trade, openly, legally, often along well established routes. taxi drivers from north dakota to upstate new york had their rates – single, couple, and family rates – stenciled on the door of their cab. they took them to the border where american suburbanites shoveling snow off their driveways blithely observed them crossing over to canada.

    if they were lucky, and crossed from upstate new york to quebec, they were met at the border by rcmp, who after warning them to go back because they were not at a legal crossing point, arrested them when they persisted for crossing illegally into canada at an uncontrolled crossing (you can’t claim refugee status at a controlled crossings). they were then taken to an immigration dept. processing facility. extra processing facilities at the border were hastily erected to cope with the increase.

    if they were unlucky they could, for example, wander around, poorly dressed, for hours through dark farm fields, in knee deep snow, in 20 below temperatures, before stumbling onto a highway & being rescued by a passing trucker. both those men from sudan, who crossed from north dakota to manitoba, lost all their fingers to frostbite, one kept his thumbs.

    on arrival they are not hidden away by the government. after processing by rcmp & immigration they are met by community volunteers who arrange for temporary accommodation, food, clothing, help finding employment, and assistance with their refugee claims.

    the pacific is wider than the atlantic, of course. several years ago a boatload from sri lanka on course to british columbia were intercepted at sea by the canadian navy & escorted to vancouver, where a disused school gym was converted to a temporary processing centre & their refugee claims were initiated by immigration dept. officials. not sure how true this is, but after embarkation, it was said, they changed course to far away canada after hearing that nearby australia had hardened its stand. -a.v.

  20. To give an idea of how Labor’s policy position is doing this was posted last night.

    @TheShovel tweets
    Labor promises to torture asylum seekers more humanly if elected

  21. As far as I understood the issue, the two parents held bridging visas when they first met. When those expired they were detained under the mandatory detention policy. Seems pretty clear to me.

  22. [‘Chinese state media has escalated its criticism of all four countries and the G7 since the weekend meetings.

    The Global Times published a cartoon that has gone viral on Chinese social media site Weibo by Chinese artist Bantonglaoatang lampooning the diplomatic partners drinking radioactive poison at the G7 last supper.

    Australia is depicted as a kangaroo reaching out for a wad of US dollars while being hooked up to an intravenous drip with a Chinese flag – symbolising its economic dependence on the superpower.’]

    You’ve got to think that the gunboat diplomacy of Morrison isn’t exactly going to plan. Maybe Rudd, Carr, Fullilove, for example, should be deployed to assist in getting our China house back in order? Things have certainly gone down hill since Whitlam visited China*.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-on-g7-the-era-of-a-bloc-of-countries-dictating-world-affairs-is-over-20210616-p581g2.html

    * https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/government-and-democracy/prime-ministers-and-politicians/gough-whitlam-visiting-echo-wall-diplomatic-trip-china

  23. @michelegrattan tweets

    Re mice – Shd we be worried about them getting into those inner city coffee shops?

    For Context

    @AmyRemeikis tweets

    Today (cont) in things the acting PM said: the mice plague should be ‘rehomed’ in inner city apartments:
    “I agree they should be rehomed, into their [PETA] inner city apartments so they can nibble away at their food and their feet at night and scratch their children at night.”

  24. And those shocking rumours about him hiring a private eye to check if a former girlfriend had had an abortion are yet another example of those who would bring this man down, their envy, jealously of him palpable.?
    Personally I’m waiting for the 21 Army personal to give their evidence!.

  25. @NyadolNyuon tweets

    Witnessing the treatment of the Biloela family didn’t humanise them, it humanised us. This is why a Democrat country will not allow its media in its detention centres, it risk humanising us. It risks making us realise these ‘others’ are just like us.

    We are as dehumanised by the Australian detention policy as its victims. How else can a country justify the treatment of children as we witnessed for years. They have reduced our capacity to be human. Our capacity to rise beyond just fear.

    Dr King wrote powerfully that a ‘genuine leader is not a searcher for consensus but a molder of consensus.” We lack leadership that seek to mold any other consensus in this space.

  26. Sky News host Andrew Bolt says Jeff Kennett, in his Herald Sun column, has tonight called on Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews to resign.

    Mr Kennett recently penned an article entitled ‘Daniel Andrews must resign to give us a fresh start’.

    “I urge you to read that column,” Mr Bolt said.

    “It’s a powerful piece”.

    “Jeff Kennett, I think, is right”.

    Andrews is going nowhere.Dickheads.

  27. Australia’s highest court on Wednesday rejected a challenge to foreign interference laws in a case that involved a U.S. conservative political organization and free speech arguments.

    China has condemned the laws introduced in 2018 that are widely seen as a means of preventing covert Chinese interference in Australian politics, universities and other institutions.

    People working on behalf of a foreign powers have to be publicly registered with the Attorney-General’s Department in the interests of transparency.

    But LibertyWorks Inc., an Australian libertarian think tank, objected to having to register while working on communications for the American Conservative Union ahead of conferences held in Australia. LibertyWorks promotes the American group’s annual political conferences.

    LibertyWorks argued the so-called Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme Act was not valid because it burdened the implied right to free speech in Australia.

    LibertyWorks said the registration process was ”onerous” and therefore deterred political communication.

    But six of the seven High Court judges found the law was valid and any burden was justified.

  28. ”…in the first year of trump there were 50,000 *additional* illegal border crossings from the usa into canada by persons who claimed refugee status”

    All taken care of without moral panic, without sentencing people to indefinite detention without trial…

  29. If you go by recent Victorian state election results, the conclusion is Bolt, Kennett and The Hun are irrelevant to Victorian voters.

  30. The parents were granted temporary protection visas under the Gillard/Rudd government. However their asylum claims had not been decided, and would not be decided until about 5 years later. But they were permitted to live in the community while their claims were being assessed. Under the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrisson system, they would have been locked up that entire time.

    Presumably then, the coalition government allowed for the ‘grandfathering’ of the labor system as it pertained to asylum seekers whose claims were still pending at the time of the government change. Hence Abbott didn’t suddenly start rounding up asylum seekers who were living in the community and shipping them off to Nauru or Manus Island. Small mercies.

    So, getting back to Marles, he wants it to be known, loud and clear, that labor is in lockstep with the coalition on AS policy. The ‘escape clause’ which allows him to argue on behalf of the Biloela family is ministerial discretion – where the Minister can decide to make exceptions to individual cases. But its important to point out that he is only talking about exceptions to the rule – not an actual change to the rule. So, for every 10 Biloela equivalent families, he would likely call for 9 of them to be locked up. This is not a morally sound position, and I’m pretty sure Keneally for one would oppose him on this.

  31. 1934pc says:

    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 2:47 pm

    [‘Personally I’m waiting for the 21 Army personal to give their evidence!.’]

    If you’re referring to the 21 serving and former SASR defence witnesses, so am I.

  32. For all the propaganda and media complicity on the issue, I have yet to see a shred of evidence that mandatory offshore detention, in any of its forms, actually has/had any impact on the number of boat arrivals.

    What we *DO* know for absolute certain is that the biggest single factor that stopped the boats was the turn backs. It was the case for Howard in 2001-2002, and it was the case for Abbott in 2013. The associated mandatory/offshore detention was little more than a propaganda set-piece to boost the liberals’ racist credentials. And it worked.

  33. Big A Adrian
    A drop off in our invading and bombing other countries would also be a help re boat arrivals. Fun times the Europeans discovered when they destroyed what was Africa’s highest gdp nation , Libya.

  34. https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/operation-sovereign-borders-offshore-detention-statistics/2/

    There’s currently no-one in offshore detention…

    The argument is no longer about detention. It’s about preventing the trafficking of human cargoes.

    Big A Adrian says:
    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 3:04 pm

    For all the propaganda and media complicity on the issue, I have yet to see a shred of evidence that mandatory offshore detention, in any of its forms, actually has/had any impact on the number of boat arrivals.

    What we *DO* know for absolute certain is that the biggest single factor that stopped the boats was the turn backs. It was the case for Howard in 2001-2002, and it was the case for Abbott in 2013. The associated mandatory/offshore detention was little more than a propaganda set-piece..

  35. @VP tweets

    Today, on the 9th anniversary of DACA, I met with Dreamers and other immigrant women who work in the care economy. We must protect DACA, and pass legislation to ensure a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers, and TPS recipients.

  36. The Greens are urging the resumption of human trafficking in the furtherance of their political goals and strategies. They are a disgrace.

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