Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10

Another poll finds Scott Morrison’s personal ratings on a downward trajectory, but still very little in it on voting intention.

The Age/Herald yesterday brought us the third result in its monthly federal polling series from Resolve Strategic, which had the Coalition on 40% (up one), Labor on 36% (up one), the Greens on 10% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (up one). This series doesn’t provide a published two-party result, but based on the last election this suggests a Labor lead of 50.5-49.5, down from around 51-49 last time. Scott Morrison has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down five on approval to 48% and up two on disapproval to 40%, while Anthony Albanese is down a point on both, to 31% and 44% respectively. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-23, unchanged in magnitude from 48-25 last time.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1600, can be viewed here. This includes the poll’s usual results for leader attributes and best party to handle various issues, as well as breakdowns for all major questions by region and gender. After last month’s poll unusually found Labor doing better in New South Wales than Victoria, this result reverts to normal. The pollster has also been up and down in its gender breakdowns, having found Labor doing better among women in the second poll a month ago, but little gender gap in the first poll and the third.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,521 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 36, Greens 10”

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  1. This doesn’t sound too good 🙁

    COVID response commander Jeroen Weimar said health authorities remain extremely concerned the virus was still circulating after a vaccinated nurse had tested positive and may have been infectious while working at Epping Private Hospital on June 14. “There is a full, instant response team working through the circumstances,” he said on Wednesday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-have-to-live-with-the-virus-but-with-no-changes-we-could-be-dying-from-it-20210616-p581l6.html

    The virus is circulating in Victoria still and just waiting to break out, doesn’t sound good at all.

  2. I’m sorry Albanese and Labor, but you’re wrong on this, (from The Post) but I don’t know how much it will affect voter support.

    Labor’s resources spokesperson Madeleine King will today pledge support for opening up new gas fields, saying climate activists are just as extreme as climate change deniers.

    In a speech to the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association conference in Perth, she will criticise activists who “demonise all fossil fuels” and back fracking in the Beetaloo’s “world-class, low-carbon gas basin” (The Guardian).

    She will reveal that federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese will convene a shadow ministry meeting in Port Hedland later this month in a show of support for the resources sector.

    The speech comes after internal debate among Labor MPs over the party’s stance on fossil fuels, who resolved to reject independent MP Zali Steggall’s bid to end support for the Beetaloo Basin (SMH).

    Steggall has warned that the Beetaloo Basin could increase Australia’s emissions by 7 per cent and put the country’s climate targets out of reach.

  3. https://amp-9news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/2f719f50-a76e-402f-9797-c155f5fb0da5?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16238808594322&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.9news.com.au%2Fnational%2Faustralia-club-member-quits-after-vote-to-exclude-women%2F2f719f50-a76e-402f-9797-c155f5fb0da5

    A couple of things

    Former prime minister John Howard celebrated his 80th birthday there in 2019.

    Other well-known members include George Pell, Malcolm Turnbull and James Packer.

    I am not surprised that Howard celebrated his 80th birthday there in view of his views. Maybe the rumours that he is bit meek in front of his wife are exaggerated.

    But what is Turbull, who ‘is for gender equality’ , doing there?

    Although I am not sirprised George Pelli is a member of that club but Why does a pastor like Pell need such worldly pleasures?

  4. C@t

    What worries me more is the hubris of the NSW government. If we need rapid introduction of restrictions, or even a lockdown in Sydney, that decision won’t come until too late.

  5. rhwombat
    Re the ‘reality check” . This from Mr Hunter made me spray my cornflakes 🙂 ” it was clear that Australia had got it right in going for “zero COVID” . That can’t possibly be right, our leader , the leader of the nation, all his ministers and our CMO told us that aiming for zero was “a mirage” and we woz not going to try for it 😆

  6. lizzie

    Its sad that some in the Labor Party think that way. Call it ignorance or lack of intellectual capacity, but it grates.

  7. Cud Chewer @ #555 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    C@t

    What worries me more is the hubris of the NSW government. If we need rapid introduction of restrictions, or even a lockdown in Sydney, that decision won’t come until too late.

    … Because Golden Gladys is the poster girl of keeping everything open.

    I’m just glad that I went nowhere near Bondi or Bondi Junction last week when I was in Sydney. But did Bondi denizens come near me, that is the question!?!

    Probably not because I’m still fine and I had the vaccine the next day. Don’t know how much that would have reactively protected me though?

  8. lizzie

    I argued long ago that when it comes to mass-surveillance testing you are far better off having ten times as many people testing, even if the tests are slightly less sensitive. Its just plain maths.

    Doesn’t change the fact that if you have “known suspects” (ie, contract tracing) you use the best possible testing. But there are many people who would be testing far more often if they had a simple do it yourself test. Like that transport driver in Bondi, for instance, who should have been tested daily, even when not at work.

  9. @slsandpet
    ·
    5m
    I just saw on Twitter some from Victoria saying that instead of getting a Covid test to ski they would just go to the NSW ski fields
    What arseholes

  10. “Because Golden Gladys is the poster girl of keeping everything open”

    But that’s the thing though. The slow grinding on of the outbreaks all the way through last year in Sydney cost a lot of lost confidence. This slow grind would have been avoided if in the first instance we had held the original lockdown into May last year and simply eliminated the virus.

    We barely survived the Avalon outbreak. But for dumb shit luck and one more super-spreader, that would have become uncontrollable. And that was with a friendlier strain than the ones we are seeing now.

  11. poroti @ #556 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    rhwombat
    Re the ‘reality check” . This from Mr Hunter made me spray my cornflakes 🙂 ” it was clear that Australia had got it right in going for “zero COVID” . That can’t possibly be right, our leader , the leader of the nation, all his ministers and our CMO told us that aiming for zero was “a mirage” and we woz not going to try for it 😆

    P:
    Quotation marks are as close to a sarcasm font as one can get in Nein-Fairfaux. David can be fairly wry at times. He’s no fan of Scummo’s Scum.
    PS: Mr is a bit unfair. His postnomials are MBBS, PhD, DSc & FRACP – and even I wouldn’t accuse him of being a surgeon.

  12. Quoll:

    Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 11:53 pm

    [‘I don’t think the same distrust extend to the Greens as far as donations and corruption goes. Just a disingenuous line here to run to try and make like everyone is just as institutionally corrupted. Exactly the kind of stooge line that reinforces distrust.’]

    So, Quoll seems to have his/her feathers ruffled after I suggested that as far as donations are concerned, the Greens are no different from the majors, and moreover, that two donations of $600k and $1.6m from the Greens’ WA conveynor and the “Wotif” owner respectively hold the record for the largest individual donations ever.

    The facts are that the Greens are not the benign basket-weavers Quoll & others make out they are. They’re conviving, often dishonest, and highly secretive. And the holier-than-thou line they portray is risible. They are a dangerous, subversive mob and when’s all said & done, will never be much more than an irritant in the Senate. Take you purity, Quoll, and stick where…?

  13. ADF support was offered a week ago to help with the storm cleanup. Vic govt has finally asked for just 5 ADF planners this morning.

  14. poroti

    Oh yes, that one had me nearly lose it. We didn’t just have a lucky escape from covid. We had a lucky escape from the so-called experts, who wrote opinion pieces telling us it was pointless to eliminate the virus locally. I can still recall a certain Collignon writing multiple pieces of polemic, including the ones written at the time when NZ was clearly headed for elimination, claiming that it would get stuck at “10-20 cases per day”. I’m glad to see, he’s not seen in the media as much these days and the media are choosing better experts.

    Btw as good as the article by Hunter is, it still glosses over differences between vaccines and doesn’t point out that the differences between vaccines can make a huge difference to what overall vaccination rate will confer herd immunity. The difference between a vaccine with a 88 percent efficacy against the Delta Strain and one that had a 60 percent efficacy is actually huge.

  15. Disgraceful and craven actions by Facebook to liken the Bruz memes generated by the Commonsense Brigade to hate groups.

    If Bruz arguably acts like a totalitarian thug then memes drawing the comparison are far more valid than the ones dressing up Rudd and Albo as German soldiers.

    If there is reasonable evidence of Bruz debt trapping a community club – allegedly for his family’s personal benefit, combined with his proven involvement in grant rorts, then memes drawing the comparison to doppelgänger mafioso would fall squarely in the realms of fair comment. Again the comparisons with right wing memes that Facebook allow to run and run and run are obvious.

  16. rhwombat

    . His postnomials are MBBS, PhD, DSc & FRACP

    Just a tad more expertise than the chap with the degree in economic geography then 😆

  17. The Victorian Ski Field operators are complaining about visitors having to get a negative covid test.

    My question to them would be – Do you want a ski season?
    It would only take one positive case to shut down the resort for much of the season.

  18. C@tmomma @ #538 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 8:05 am

    I’m presenting a nuanced argument.

    No you’re not. Like many Labor partisans here, you are just completely confused by Labor’s latest support for the expansion of our fossil fuels industry, which is not just completely out of step with the rest of the world, it is ultimately incompatible with the long term well-being of Australians 🙁

  19. poroti

    The most galling thing is Scomo is and will be trying to tap into that success, despite the fact that he and his sycophantic CMO and others were trying hard to drive us into disaster.

  20. Rick @colonelhogans
    ·
    55m

    French President Macron was in England, but Morrison is now going to Paris to meet him. There was no need for Morrison to go to Europe. It’s just been a taxpayer funded holiday for him, Jenny and 20, yes, TWENTY staff who tagged along. Made one announcement with Johnson. WTF?

  21. “porotisays:
    Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 8:45 am
    rhwombat
    Re the ‘reality check” . This from Mr Hunter made me spray my cornflakes ” it was clear that Australia had got it right in going for “zero COVID” . That can’t possibly be right, our leader , the leader of the nation, all his ministers and our CMO told us that aiming for zero was “a mirage” and we woz not going to try for it

    For outside world they don’t care how it is done. They only look at the country response as a whole and who the leader is. The leader either gets brickbats or bouquets based on that.
    Every country power structure is not like that of UK, where they have councils after Federal government. Other countries like US, Australia, Germany, India have devolved into States, where the states have jurisdictions on many things.
    But the outside world does not care about the power structures.

  22. Cud Chewer

    I’m glad to see, he’s not seen in the media as much these days and the media are choosing better experts.

    Oh but he is. Still banging his only drum kit.
    .
    Oct. 2020
    Fears Australia will become ‘hermit nation’ if borders stay closed
    April 2021
    Stark warning Australia could end up ‘like North Korea
    Tue 15 Jun 2021 14.04 AEST
    Australia must eventually face reality: live with Covid or become a hermit nation
    Peter Collignon
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/15/australia-must-eventually-face-reality-live-with-covid-or-become-a-hermit-nation

  23. Mavis

    I well remember that big individual donation. Up until then, the Greens proudly boasted they wouldn’t take large individual donations. When one was made, they changed their stance overnight.

  24. CC:
    There is this . I think you are a bit too willing to sneer at people who actually have to deal with the human consequences in the real world – including real life “trolley problems”. You have the advantage of sniping from anonymity. Some of us don’t.

  25. rhw

    I make no apologies for deeply disliking that stubborn, dangerous, educated fool. There are far too many like him unfortunately.

  26. “C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 8:49 am
    Probably not because I’m still fine and I had the vaccine the next day. Don’t know how much that would have reactively protected me though?

    I hope you are fine. But the vaccine wouldn’t help you because you took it next day and it will be effective only after 4 weeks. That doesn’t mean you don’t get even after 4 weeks. Look at that Nurse Victoria, who got vaccinated but still got it.

    What I notice is that there is false sense of complacency amongst people, who took the vaccine, that they won’t get it.
    COVID vaccine is not like many other vaccines, where once you take them you don’t get them.

  27. A strong candidate for Arsehole of the Year..

    ‘Magistrate Rodney Higgins, who created controversy in 2019 by embarking on a relationship with a court clerk 45 years his junior, has successfully claimed her $180,000 superannuation death benefit even though it was bequeathed to her struggling mother.

    Mr Higgins, who earns $324,000 a year as a magistrate in Bendigo, made the successful claim on the death benefits of his late fiance Ashleigh Petrie after the fund, Rest Super, agreed with his argument that he was her de facto partner and therefore her “dependent”.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/magistrate-who-had-relationship-with-young-court-clerk-wins-her-super-benefit-20210616-p581hg.html

  28. Btw, had a really good, lengthy conversation with my GP (senior partner in the practice and well qualified btw). We managed to compare notes, discuss recent research. His view was that herd immunity matters, that its possible albeit difficult and that the medical community are ahead of the media.

  29. Quoll
    “ Federal Labor’s Madeleine King defends gas as ‘critical’ to Australia’s needs
    Opposition frontbencher will tell industry Labor’s support is predicated on gas being a transitional fuel during the shift to net zero emissions”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/17/federal-labors-madeleine-king-defends-gas-as-critical-to-australias-needs

    Thanks I was also going to post that. Some world class sophistry from Labor’s Madelaine King there. It seems Labor is sticking to the same schizophrenic climate change policy that cost it the last election. Sad.

    Obviously Australia has no gas shortage; AEMO has confirmed this. And the idea of a “transitional fuel” when the IEA has already recommended no new coal, oil or gas investments, is laughable.

    The Barrow Island gas project in WA has been a disastrous failure for WA and the planet. Huge emissions, the CCS plant has not worked properly, and an amazingly low rate of royalties paid. A bad deal all round, except for Chevron.
    https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/chevrons-8b-profit-from-wa-but-just-50m-in-tax-ng-b881186276z

  30. “Thanks I was also going to post that. Some world class sophistry from Labor’s Madelaine King there. It seems Labor is sticking to the same schizophrenic climate change policy that cost it the last election. Sad.”

    Ditto. Just, ditto..

  31. lizzie @ #548 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 6:32 am

    zoomster

    Thanks for repeating the truth about the regional solution, which the Gillard government was trying to bring about as a result of advice by many as the best way forward. I remember my fury and disappointment when the Greens refused to support the legislation needed.

    Yep, I agree, it is an integral part of a solution that moves away from the current mandatory detention model.

    To happen it needs the economic power of countries like Australia, to set them up, working with the countries in SE Asia, to find appropriate locations, and then have it coordinated under the UN framework.

  32. zoomster:

    Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 9:22 am

    [‘Mavis

    I well remember that big individual donation. Up until then, the Greens proudly boasted they wouldn’t take large individual donations. When one was made, they changed their stance overnight.’]

    Yep, and thus Quoll’s white anger. I’ve never given the Greens a spray before, preferring to keep out of the Labor/Greens wars, but his/her constant referencing to Labor supporters as partisan stooges can’t go unanswered.


  33. Zerlosays:
    Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 8:47 am

    Murdoch controls the government – controls the message.

    If you are a Martian , who just landed on Australian soil and read those headlines, that Alien would think Morrison is the king of the world.
    Even you come from one of those people from Non-European nations except some Asian countries, you would assume our PM is big shot in the world and you should vote for him.

  34. Socrates @ #592 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 9:35 am

    Obviously Australia has no gas shortage; AEMO has confirmed this. And the idea of a “transitional fuel” when the IEA has already recommended no new coal, oil or gas investments, is laughable.

    There is nothing wrong with the idea of using gas as a ‘transitional fuel’ to help eliminate our suicidal dependence on coal. However, we do not need to open up new gas fields to do this, and in any case while this is what Labor says>, it is not what Labor is actually proposing to do.

    And then there is this clanger …

    “It is important that people are aware that the Beetaloo is a world-class, low-carbon gas basin – containing about 3% carbon dioxide,” King will tell the conference on Thursday.

    She must think we are all complete morons. Actually, she is probably not far off the truth there 🙁

  35. zoomster @ #580 Thursday, June 17th, 2021 – 9:18 am

    Apparently it’s now evil for the major parties to campaign in Western Australia!

    And The Greens and their supporters still haven’t learned the meaning of ‘nuance’. Though at 10% and falling, they do have the luxury of being purists. They don’t need to, nor do they have to, appeal to a broad swathe of the populace.

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