Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 thoughts on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”


  1. The editorial cartoonists have something to say: https://www.editorialcartoonists.com/a-statement-from-the-aaec-on-the-2021-pulitzer-prizes/
    The Association of American Editorial Cartoonists strongly disagrees with the decision by the Pulitzer Board to award no Pulitzer Prize in Editorial Cartooning in 2021. We are mystified by the pointed rejection of talented Finalists as well as the many other artists who have been creating powerful work in these most eventful and challenging of times.

    The medium of editorial cartooning has been evolving for many years now, yet the Pulitzer board remains extremely traditional and narrow-minded in its tastes, apparently uncomfortable with contemporary trends in opinion cartooning and comic art. Last year the board discarded the jurors’ choices and selected its own winner; this year represents a new low in this trend of insularity and institutional hubris.

    It is notable that the three Finalists chosen for 2021 were of Jewish, Latinx, and Native American backgrounds, yet this is the first time in 48 years that the board has chosen not to issue an award. No woman has won in twenty years, and there has been only one female Finalist during those two decades.

    As this has been a tremendously difficult time economically for our profession, the AAEC would like to request a return of the entry fees for those who submitted. We would also urge radical structural reform of the award to evaluate modern opinion cartoons by 21st century standards.

    Jen Sorensen
    President of the AAEC

    AAEC Board of Directors
    Kevin Siers
    Liza Donnelly
    Ed Hall
    Tim Campbell
    Gretchen Koch
    Monte Wolverton

    Canada:


    Ireland:




    India:



























    South Africa:

    Kenya:

    New Zealand:



    Netherlands:

















    Switzerland:

    France:












    Japan:

    Belgium:






    XKCD:

  2. I would have said this was over the top not long ago.

    Now I need to ask. Have we really become fascist? As this person alleges.

    @BelindaJones68 tweets

    Our House of Representatives is a national joke on your watch Mr Speaker @TonySmithMP

    Our democracy demands an end to gagging debate.

    This is not a Parliament, we are no longer a democracy. This is fascism.

    #auspol #qt

    A reply which is why I am asking.

    @Thetabbycat tweets

    The very purpose of moving that one member no longer be heard was the aim that a pointlessly (or mendaciously) extended debate could be shut down to allow parliamentary work to proceed. There seems zero justification for having it in an already time-limited speaking format.

  3. Reconsays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 1:40 pm
    Cartoons. Can there be too much of a good thing?
    _____________________________
    You tell me, What do you, prefer, I am happy to cull the list down a bit. There is just so much stuff happening around the world.

    I thought it was interesting that No global G7 cartoon had Scomo in the pictures.

  4. THis story about a car battery factory being built in Sweden highlights the idiocy of Morrison and McCormack’s rejection of EVs and renewable technology. The factory already has a ten year order from VW for $14 billion worth of batteries.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57382472

    Obvious question: why can’t we build one here? Sweden has none of the required raw materials (cobalt, lithium and rare earth metals). Australia is amongst the top five countries in the world for reserves of all of them. A bright future is being wasted.

  5. Alpha Zero says:

    You tell me, What do you, prefer, I am happy to cull the list down a bit. There is just so much stuff happening around the world.
    ______________________________
    Who am I to say. But my opinion is that quality beats quantity.

  6. So the MSM has generally chosen to ignore the association between QAnon’s Australian representative, Tim Stewart, and Morrison. It has also equally ignored Morrison’s friendship with Brian Houston, the beloved son of the paedophile Frank Houston, who was defrocked but reappeared in Maitland, where he was found to be preaching to the converted including these comments to young boys:

    “This curly-headed young man … what a fetching young fellow he is. Curly hair, sort of. Good looking,”

    “It’s not your fault you’re good looking. Thank God you are. Who wants to be ugly when you can be good looking?”

    Houston Snr. eventually did the right thing by dying on 8 Nov 2004. But the point is that his no-good son, after admitting his father was a paedophile, allowed him to keep preaching and it wouldn’t surprise if he indulged further in his favourite pastime of abusing young boys.

    If you judge another by the company they keep, Morrison has at best shown very poor judgment. Not only does he dismiss legitimate questions about his friendship with Houston Jnr and Stewart, but he also doubles down by saying (wwtte), “Nothing to see here, I’m shocked that the Fourth Estate would have the temerity to question me on my loyal, trusted friends.”

  7. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    41m
    Health Minister
    @MartinFoleyMP
    says Victoria cannot keep up with demand for Pfizer jabs because there simply isn’t enough supply. People who have booked will get it. And everyone who has had a first, will get a second.
    But Plenty of AZ availability for over 50s.

    “there simply isn’t enough supply”

    We’re at the back of the queue.

  8. “porotisays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 12:48 pm
    Alpha Zero at 12:38 pm

    How’s that Eagles crush now?

    Careful you may give C@t a touch of the ‘Credlins’ with that Bishop pic

    The most amazing thing about the above photo is that Credlin was sitting in MPs seat and admonishing the Deputy Liberal leader in government, Minister and only female Cabinet minister.
    And they gave AO to such person for public service. It mind blowing.

    But the Buces, Larses , Steelys wag the finger at the other PBers. Amazing.

  9. Mavis @ #1709 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:07 pm

    So the MSM has generally chosen to ignore the association between QAnon’s Australian representative, Tim Stewart, and Morrison. It has also equally ignored Morrison’s friendship with Brian Houston, the beloved son of the paedophile Frank Houston, who was defrocked but reappeared in Maitland, where he was found to be preaching to the converted including these comments to young boys:

    “This curly-headed young man … what a fetching young fellow he is. Curly hair, sort of. Good looking,”

    “It’s not your fault you’re good looking. Thank God you are. Who wants to be ugly when you can be good looking?”

    Houston Snr. eventually did the right thing by dying on 8 Nov 2004. But the point is that his no-good son, after admitting his father was a paedophile, allowed him to keep preaching and it wouldn’t surprise if he indulged further in his favourite pastime of abusing young boys.

    If you judge another by the company they keep, Morrison has at best shown very poor judgment. Not only does he dismiss legitimate questions about his friendship with Houston Jnr and Stewart, but he also doubles down by saying (wwtte), “Nothing to see here, I’m shocked that the Fourth Estate would have the temerity to question me on my loyal, trusted friends.”

    Despite all the evidence, there is a determination by most of the Canberra Press Gallery to bury these extreme fringe behaviours that only a crackpot Trump-like mind partakes in.

    This country has descended into extremely dangerous territory.

  10. AZ
    Because Smoko is a nobody on the international stage. Go to the UK. You wont hear a fucking thing about Australia and less so about Smoko.

  11. Ven @ #1110 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:11 pm

    “porotisays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 12:48 pm
    Alpha Zero at 12:38 pm

    How’s that Eagles crush now?

    Careful you may give C@t a touch of the ‘Credlins’ with that Bishop pic

    The most amazing thing about the above photo is that Credlin was sitting in MPs seat and admonishing the Deputy Liberal leader in government, Minister and only female Cabinet minister.
    And they gave AO to such person for public service. It mind blowing.

    No she wasn’t. She was sitting in the Advisers Box (you can see the wooden barriers on either side). It’s so the MPs can get quick advice when needed during Question Time.

    I must admit that was the highlight of my time in federal parliament, being allowed to sit in the Advisers Box in the Senate during Question Time because the Adviser allowed the Work Experience kid to have a go. 😀

  12. SteveDavis

    Mostly true. Australia comes up due to our low infection rate with Covid 19 by people attacking Johnson for opening up too early.

    So our states example is helping helth people fight the right wing reactionaries in the UK too. Occassionally dangerous animals and Hollywood actors and of course there is Neighbours.

  13. I note that Australia and the UK are close to reaching a free trade deal.
    Johnson deliberately started breaking the Brexit deal within weeks.

  14. Rex:

    ‘This country has descended into extremely dangerous territory.’

    You could say that. I see the problem as an embedded press corp in Canberra, that won’t ask the tough question for fear of being sidelined, and hamstrung by a brace of media moguls who want their boy to succeed.

  15. “C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:24 pm

    No she wasn’t. She was sitting in the Advisers Box (you can see the wooden barriers on either side). It’s so the MPs can get quick advice when needed during Question Time.

    I must admit that was the highlight of my time in federal parliament, being allowed to sit in the Advisers Box in the Senate during Question Time because the Adviser allowed the Work Experience kid to have a go.

    IMO, Chambers of Parliament
    (House and Senate) especially seats belong to members of Parliament because
    1. they are elected Representatives of people
    2. Parliament is a people’s house
    2. Those chambers are places of debate for people matters.

    The place of advisers is in Minister’s office. I don’t care which party the adviser belongs. That is how it should be.

  16. Biloela family? People you mean. People with hearts, and minds, and five fingers, and five toes, and tear ducts? No sir, the Minister just defined them as

    “unlawful non-citizens”.

    (shudders with both fear and disgust)

  17. “shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:39 pm
    The Crows power stance rivals the Canberra Raiders’ knocking off of the Viking clap as pure sporting wankdom

    May be the Crows stand in power stance because their cross town rivals are ‘Port Power’ with a thunderbolt as symbol.

  18. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:41 pm
    “unlawful non-citizens”.

    (shudders with both fear and disgust)
    ________________________
    the next step is to declare them ‘non persons’.

  19. Ven,
    There’s also another function for the Advisers Box. If an MP requires some information they can quickly call on their Adviser to go get it for them. MPs are loathe to leave the Chamber in case a vote is brought on.

  20. Dutton might have moved on from home affairs but the department officials remain the same. They are the people who organise the dawn raids and the midnight flights and the security guards and the inadequate medical care.

    Must be a great place to work. I dare say the ambitious love it.

  21. Cat

    That’s what electronic devices are for.

    Instead let people whose lives are affected sit in the boxes. Highlight them all the time and not just on special occasions.

    The world has changed and so should some traditions retained out of inertia.

  22. Shalailah Medhora
    @shalailah
    In response to the Murugappan family decision today, Minister Littleproud says “no one is above the law”.

    Just a reminder that ministerial intervention IS part of the law, and has been used many times in the past.

    This binary the Govt is trying to create is false.

    We all know this extreme Govt isn’t above dogwhistling.

  23. guytaur @ #1131 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:51 pm

    Cat

    That’s what electronic devices are for.

    Instead let people whose lives are affected sit in the boxes. Highlight them all the time and not just on special occasions.

    The world has changed and so should some traditions retained out of inertia.

    Yes but Tony Smith is seriously considering not allowing electronic devices in the Chamber in future.

  24. ItzaDream:

    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:41 pm

    “unlawful non-citizens”.

    Actually, that’s better than calling them “illegal non-citizens”, which is what Dutton used called them. In law, the term “unlawful non-citizens” is correct, even though it’s dehumanising.

    MIGRATION ACT 1958 – SECT 14

    Unlawful non-citizens
    (1) A non-citizen in the migration zone who is not a lawful non-citizen is an unlawful non-citizen.

    (2) To avoid doubt, a non-citizen in the migration zone who, immediately before 1 September 1994, was an illegal entrant within the meaning of the Migration Act as in force then became, on that date, an unlawful non-citizen.

  25. Rex Douglas @ #1132 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:53 pm

    Shalailah Medhora
    @shalailah
    In response to the Murugappan family decision today, Minister Littleproud says “no one is above the law”.

    Just a reminder that ministerial intervention IS part of the law, and has been used many times in the past.

    This binary the Govt is trying to create is false.

    We all know this extreme Govt isn’t above dogwhistling.

    We also know that they think THEY are above the law. If they can get away with it.

    Eg Ministerial Advisers accused of an alleged rape that seem to have disappeared into thin air and not yet been charged with a crime.

  26. “C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:45 pm
    Ven,
    There’s also another function for the Advisers Box. If an MP requires some information they can quickly call on their Adviser to go get it for them. MPs are loathe to leave the Chamber in case a vote is brought on.

    Then why do I see empty chambers or scarcely populated chambers when Minister or government MP presents a bill or talks on some issue or an opposition MP discusses some matter of importance if “MPs are loathe to leave the Chamber. ”
    They either go and sit in their office or in the canteen.
    For example, in one farcical instance the Minister even left the town when opposition called for a vote during Turnbull time.

  27. Mavis @ #1724 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 2:40 pm

    Rex:

    ‘This country has descended into extremely dangerous territory.’

    You could say that. I see the problem as an embedded press corp in Canberra, that won’t ask the tough question for fear of being sidelined, and hamstrung by a brace of media moguls who want their boy to succeed.

    There appears to be so much corruption.

    We desperately need a federal ICAC that will restore integrity in our national polity.

  28. Ven

    The whips for both parties organize the numbers within their party and between parties.
    They agree pairs so that not every MP has to be in the chamber all the time.
    It really doesn’t matter whether the chamber is full or half empty, the numbers will be carefully calibrated.
    So, if an MP is supposed to be in the chamber, then that MP had better be in the chamber.

    In terms of sitting around having a cuppa, normal working hours during a sitting day usually comes to around 12 hour day finishing at 8 pm.

    Not all MPs work hard but most of them work very hard indeed.

  29. Rex Douglas:

    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 2:58 pm

    ‘We desperately need a federal ICAC that will restore integrity in our national polity.’

    Yes, and Labor should milk this for all it’s worth, saying what have they got to hide.

  30. Ven

    The wh*ps for both parties organize the numbers within their party and between parties. They agree pairs so that not every MP has to be in the chamber all the time. It really doesn’t matter whether the chamber is full or half empty, the numbers will be carefully calibrated. So, if an MP is supposed to be in the chamber, then that MP had better be in the chamber. In terms of sitting around having a cuppa, normal working hours during a sitting day usually comes to around 12 hour day finishing at 8 pm. Not all MPs work hard but most of them work very hard indeed.

  31. Labor hopeless in government?

    The Queensland government anticipates its state-owned power generators – mostly coal-fired power stations – will be unable to pay dividends to taxpayers within two years, due to an influx of renewables and lower power prices.

    One of the most significant measures in the state’s budget, handed down on Tuesday, was a “watershed” $2bn fund that would build renewables and further develop industries linked to clean energy.

    The budget is being sold by the treasurer, Cameron Dick, as a vindication of Covid lockdowns, border closures and the decision to use debt to fund the economic recovery.

    Dick said that since the onset of the pandemic, Queensland’s job numbers have grown by 253,000 and the state’s economy has outperformed the rest of the country.

    “Our economy is succeeding because we protected the health of Queenslanders,” Dick said.

    “In this budget we are reducing our debt because our economy is growing strongly, because our jobs are coming back and because it makes sense to rebuild our borrowing capacity.

    “In future, debt may well rise again, to respond to another crisis … or to build the infrastructure of our state.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/15/queensland-budget-forecasts-coal-power-revenue-will-disappear-amid-influx-of-renewables

  32. Cat

    Reforming Question Time. Banning Dorothy Dixers.
    Make the parliament more accountable to the voters is the way to go.

    Think about should we have an independent speaker to avoid the human nature of bias or perceived bias.

    You can never eliminate complaints especially in a political context but you can look at ways to give the public more ways to be satisfied they have an open democratic parliament

  33. I remember Gillard spending a whole press conference answering question about a former boyfriend.
    The contrast between how the media is treating Scomo is completely different, he won’t even answer a single question on it, and they give him a free pass on it.
    The game is rigged in mainstream politics it is so obvious and clear, anyone who denies it have short memories indeed.

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