Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest

Roy Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding little separating the major parties on two-party preferred.

It was a fairly busy week for federal polling by recent standards, with Newspoll, Essential and Morgan publishing results of one kind or another. We may or may not get the monthly federal Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald next week, from which we are also past due for a result on state voting intention in Victoria.

• Roy Morgan this week published results from its regularly conducted but infrequently reported federal voting intention series, showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%. Two-party breakdowns are provided at state level, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales and 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and the Coalition with leads of 53-47 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 50.5-49.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2817.

• The federal redistribution for Western Australia has been finalised, although maps and accompanying data will not be published until August 2. For now we have a media release detailing the adjustments that have been made to the original draft published in March, which was covered here. The biggest of the six revisions is that the 3000 voters of the Shire of Waroona south of Perth will not now be transferred from Canning to Forrest, a fact of interest to the seats’ respective Liberal members but not to the nation at large. Revisions in Perth target areas that don’t currently have many residents but will do later, and the transfer of the Shire of Wiluna from Durack to O’Connor affects a lot of land but not many people. The finalised Victorian redistribution should be along fairly shortly.

• The Age reports a Victorian Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday lifted the injunction on the process by which Labor’s national executive is preselecting federal election candidates in the state, bypassing the usual procedure which includes a vote of party members. However, national executive preselections may yet be invalidated if the court ultimately rules against the intervention. This effectively amounts to a battle over the new seat of Hawke, which appears set to go to former state party secretary Sam Rae if the matter is left to the national executive. Rae’s principal backer is federal MP Richard Marles, who is struggling for dominance over the Victorian Right with rival powerbroker Bill Shorten, an opponent of the intervention.

• Emma Dawson, executive director at the Per Capita think tank, appears set to win Labor preselection to take on Greens MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. The Age reports Dawson’s backers include “academic Janet McCalman, prominent employment lawyer Josh Bornstein, Rhodes Scholar and venture capitalist Josh Funder, and former deputy prime minister Brian Howe”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 thoughts on “Morgan poll, redistribution and preselection latest”

Comments Page 34 of 39
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  1. “imaccasays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:30 am
    On last nights 4 Corners. Major fail of media the lack of follow up reporting on this. I think it did examine some questions a lot more serious than did Smirk employ his missus mate.
    ”

    What do you expect? 9Fairfax is controlled by Costello and other outlets are Stokes 7 and Murdoch press.

  2. Barney

    Of course there should not be detention at all in this case.

    Mr Albanese nailed the political message.
    @AlboMP tweets

    A few months after I became Labor Leader in 2019, I visited Biloela.

    I saw how much this community loves Priya, Nades, Kopika and Tharnicaa – and how badly they want them to return.

    It was clear to me that this family should be allowed to go #HomeToBilo. Let’s just get it done.

  3. @BronwynHill1 tweets

    A half-arsed decision forced upon them which leaves Priya, Nades, Kopika and Tharni in more limbo, without the community support they need and never mentions their names, just refers to them as “the Sri Lankan family” is not “compassion”. It’s political.
    #auspol
    #hometobilo

  4. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:29 am
    @GrogsGamut tweets

    Suspect Scott Morrison is absolutely livid that the Murugappan family has been allowed to put a face to the cruelty of our asylum seeker policy .

    It’s more likely that Morrison is pleased to be able show he’s capable of an act of mercy.

    Voters are largely in favour of kindness for the family. He’s satisfied that hope.

    There’s a double standard at work. But that won’t trouble anyone. Feelings of pity for small children have real resonance among all except the Duttons of the world.

  5. @mattjcan tweets
    If Twiggy Forrest is so concerned about carbon emissions why does he do so much business with China – the world’s biggest emitter of carbon?

    @glengyron tweets
    Great tweet. Welcome to the anti billionaire resistance.

  6. BB Back during the Gillard government’s time in office the Coalition sampled NBN rollout performance during the worst delay period

    Yes I remember that. Gross misrepresentation by Murdoch media.

    In terms of the vaccine rollout, a valid extrapolation might be the number of shots. We’re up to about 5.9 million. Taking 80% fully vaccinated (about 40 million shots) as the target for “herd immunity”, we’re about 17-18% of the way through. At the current rate of progress (about 130,000 shots per week) we might April-May next year.

    As with Global Heating, Government has no targets. They apparently don’t believe in them, just chip away at a problem and hope one day to finish. Make it up as they go along. It’s absurd. Planning for the rollout and developing its processes, engaging GPs and other professionals and setting up vaccination centres could have been and should have been completed last year.

  7. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:47 am
    @mattjcan tweets
    If Twiggy Forrest is so concerned about carbon emissions why does he do so much business with China – the world’s biggest emitter of carbon?

    Canavan is trying to politicise the iron ore trade. He’s a bigger idiot than I thought possible.

  8. torchbearer @ #1049 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    Yes the “ritual abuse” comment is very telling, as far as I know the term/concept/ practice of “ritual abuse” was not mentioned in the RC Report …..in fact the abuse that occured was anything but ritual abuse…….
    Why did he use those words?

    And because they are such a bunch of mouth-breathing numpties in QAnon, it would have been correct to say ‘ritualised abuse’ if Morrison ever meant it to refer to the Churches and other institutions, but no ‘ritual abuse’ came out of his mouth.

  11. Ven @ #1047 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 11:36 am

    “C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 10:22 am
    Rossmcg,
    People believe asylum seekers will disappear into the community is the difference.

    I once knew a guy in Perth, who was from London, that jumped ship in Perth (he worked on a cruise ship) and stayed under the radar for over 10 years by accepting less than the going rate of pay, cash in hand, paid no tax and accepted no Medicare or Unemplyment Benefits and marrying a Perth girl. He only came out from under cover when Labor announced an amnesty.
    ”
    If the guy was from London, why the cloak and dagger stuff. He was from Mother country. Was it possible he did not look British?

    He looked British as a bulldog. No, I think he had decided he had found his home and didn’t want to go back. 🙂

  13. ”
    ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 10:22 am
    The NSW Coalition is stampeding ahead, and steam rolling the opposition, with spend spend spend build build build. Today’s SMH has big stories on Bradfield, the new supercity adjoining the new Western Sydney Airport; an announcement that stage 2 of the Parramatta Light Rail will go ahead; another (big) announcement that the Powerhouse Museum at Ultimo (5 years after Baird’s brain fart to move it to Parramatta) would be retained, expanded, and reconfigured focusing on fashion and design, to an outfit rivalling the NGV, and retaining the big stuff in its collection that couldn’t be moved to Parramatta anyway – the loco, the Catalina, etc.

    They’re (successfully imo) sucking the oxygen out of any opposition, and splattering any dribbles (and that’s all they are) of corruption with Projects-R-Us.

    But wait, there’s more: new western harbour tunnel about to start.
    ”

    So you are implying that NSW state government performance is affecting federal vote. It just baffles me that WA and QLD state government performance is not affecting the federal vote that much if at all any.

  15. Anyone would think that the NSW Government was in pre-election mode. However, the Parliament of NSW has fixed 4-year terms, with the next election 21 months away in March 2023.

  16. Ven
    I think the real problem is that the state opposition is not being heard (knifing of Jodie excepted) and the same for Federal Labor; related but distinct problems rather than Gladys affecting the federal vote

  17. A timely reminder:

    Kopika and Tharnicaa are not the only children we are letting down.

    As Daniel Hurst reports:

    An 11-year-old Australian girl collapsed due to malnutrition in al-Roj camp in north-east Syria, an aid group says, raising fears it is only “a matter of time before an Australian child dies”.

    Save the Children revealed the girl had needed help from ambulance medics, as it stepped up calls for the Morrison government to urgently repatriate dozens of Australian children and their mothers from the camp.

    Those detained at the camp include family members of men who travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight for Isis. Supporters of the women and children say their individual stories vary but many were tricked into going there or were trafficking victims.

  18. Reuniting the family in Perth while the daughter is in hospital doesn’t mean they won’t be on the next flight to Christmas I. the moment the medicos give the all clear.

  20. The government is talking Sri Lanka.

    Once the legal matters are settled, yes. Have they said they _won’t_ be sent back to Christmas I. in the meantime?

  22. @SenatorSeiwert tweets

    Mutual obligations are VERY effective at entrenching poverty and they don’t help people find work.

    @1petermarin tweets

    New finding. Australian jobseekers subject to mutual obligations take longer to find work: theconversation.com/new-finding-jo… @jcu @ConversationEDU #ausecon #auspol

  23. “Once the legal matters are settled, yes. Have they said they _won’t_ be sent back to Christmas I. in the meantime?”

    There is injunction in place restraining the Cth from sending the family back to Sri Lanka

  24. Shellbell

    Yes. There is no legal impediment to the family staying in Biloela while their status is going through the courts.

    Saving taxpayers dollars and in fact due to parents working actually paying taxes

  26. “Mutual obligations are VERY effective at entrenching poverty and they don’t help people find work.”

    The whole mutual obligation thing is a complete crock. The problem is that the economy is now designed to operate with a pool of unemployed of about 5% of the work force.

  27. @pablovinales tweets

    Acting PM spoke about the Murugappan family when Coalition party room met this morning. He told colleagues these are ‘difficult and challenging issues.’ He went on to accuse Labor of putting more beds in detention centres than they did in hospitals. @SBSNews #AusPol

    _________

    Steve777

    Yes indeed. A UBI would get rid of this once and for all.
    Plus give pensioners and carers and stay at home mums economic dignity options. Ditto people suffering domestic abuse and many others I am not thinking of.

  29. guytaur says:

    Yes indeed. A UBI would get rid of this once and for all.
    Plus give pensioners and careers and stay at home mums economic dignity options. Ditto people suffering domestic abuse and many others I am not thinking of.
    _____________________
    Absolutely. There are also many stuck in dysfunctional relationships with no choice but to stick together out of economic necessity. A UBI would be great not only economically but socially as well.

  32. Alpha Zero at 12:38 pm

    How’s that Eagles crush now?

    Careful you may give C@t a touch of the ‘Credlins’ with that Bishop pic 🙂

  33. guytaur says Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:18 am

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says it’s “absolute rubbish” that Scott Morrison has links to Qanon

    “This notion that the Prime Minister is close to Qanon is absolute rubbish, the PM has put out a statement to that effect” #auspol

    A great example of a strawman argument. The allegation isn’t that the PM is close to or a believer of Qanon, it’s that he’s close to and potentially influenced by someone who is. Frydenberg chose to answer a different question.

  35. From the Labor Caucus Room:

    Anthony Albanese told caucus the government had made a “pathetic announcement” on the Biloela family, by releasing them into community detention in Perth. He said it was possible to be “strong on borders without being weak on humanity”.

    Albanese also said of the robodebt debacle that the government was “strong against the weak and weak against the strong” – contrasting its vow to “hunt down” people that received social security payments with its inaction on getting JobKeeper paid back by profitable companies.

  36. Ven @ #1663 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 11:56 am

    ”
    ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 10:22 am
    The NSW Coalition is stampeding ahead, and steam rolling the opposition, with spend spend spend build build build. Today’s SMH has big stories on Bradfield, the new supercity adjoining the new Western Sydney Airport; an announcement that stage 2 of the Parramatta Light Rail will go ahead; another (big) announcement that the Powerhouse Museum at Ultimo (5 years after Baird’s brain fart to move it to Parramatta) would be retained, expanded, and reconfigured focusing on fashion and design, to an outfit rivalling the NGV, and retaining the big stuff in its collection that couldn’t be moved to Parramatta anyway – the loco, the Catalina, etc.

    They’re (successfully imo) sucking the oxygen out of any opposition, and splattering any dribbles (and that’s all they are) of corruption with Projects-R-Us.

    But wait, there’s more: new western harbour tunnel about to start.
    ”

    So you are implying that NSW state government performance is affecting federal vote. It just baffles me that WA and QLD state government performance is not affecting the federal vote that much if at all any.

    Ven, that post was specific to NSW and the NSW vote.

  37. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 12,022 ………………….. – New deaths: 144

    – In hospital: 17,383 (-408)
    – In ICU: 4,447 (-141)

    615,232 total deaths now

  38. From the Coalition CVaucus Room:

    Coalition MPs have discussed at length the decision to allow the Biloela family to be reunited in Perth, but only one MP has called on the immigration minister Alex Hawke to go further and grant an exemption that would allow them to be resettled in Biloela.

    The acting prime minister Michael McCormack told MPs that the government was dealing with “difficult and challenging issues” and said Labor had “put more beds in detention centres than they ever did in hospitals” while in government resulting in 8000 children being in detention.

    One MP said the plight of the Murugappan family was the most common issue raised in their electorate, and thanked Hawke for the decision, but another said “if we could make an exemption, that would be well received,” according to a government spokesman.

    Another MP said it was “the opposite”view in their electorate and there was “no need to open a Pandora’s box”.

    Several other MPs spoke out in favour of the government’s border policies, saying the coalition had dealt with maritime arrivals under Howard and under Abbott and “we know that the slightest little gap and it will start again.”

    Another said the family had been exploited by lawyers, while someone else suggested the father – Nades – had returned to Sri Lanka three times after arriving in Australia.

    Hawke thanked colleagues for their “engagement” on the issue, and said that “it was important that we strike the right balance”.He said the courts and the tribunals had found that Australia did not owe protection to the family because “they are not refugees”, and reminded MPs that hundreds of thousands of people had returned to Sri Lanka safely.

    Hawke was asked a question in relation to the citizenship of the children, which the minister said was an issue currently before the administrative appeals tribunal.The treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, also commended Hawke on the decision saying the government needed to “hold the line” to maintain the “integrity of our borders”.

    “We know that people smugglers are ready to put their model back to work,” he said.However, he also said that he respected his colleagues who had spoken publicly on behalf of their constituents, which has included Jason Falinski, Katie Allen and Trent Zimmerman.

    “The decision does not water down our policy nor is it a green light to people smugglers…the alternative was the chaos, cost and loss of life that we saw under Labor,” Frydenberg said.

  41. @markdreyfusQCMP tweets

    Gagged by the Government for calling out Scott Morrison’s illegal, incompetent and immoral #Robodebt scheme.

  42. “Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along.”

    Only top notch Chinese engineering that never ever cuts corners if something isn’t explicitly stated in the your contract.

  43. @bruce_haigh tweets
    #auspol Alex ‘Hillsong’ Hawke is gutless.
    MSM this is not a ‘great’ decision; the Biloela family remains in limbo, this time on the mainland. Has anyone in the MSM/LNP any idea of the mental trauma of being left in limbo.
    I was on the RRT, I would have found them to be refugees.

  44. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    26m
    As expected Labor’s National Executive has picked fmr State Sec Sam Rae for the new plum seat of Hawke.
    The move had been resisted by elements of Labor’s Right.
    @abcmelbourne

    Bill Shorten’s faction lost.

  45. Rex Douglas @ #1093 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 1:22 pm

    Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    26m
    As expected Labor’s National Executive has picked fmr State Sec Sam Rae for the new plum seat of Hawke.
    The move had been resisted by elements of Labor’s Right.
    @abcmelbourne

    Bill Shorten’s faction lost.

    And Richard Marles’ faction won.

    Brutal new reality in Victoria.

  46. Rex

    Cool. We may see real shift on some of the worst Labor policy settings.

    I do expect leadership to be a big topic for Labor partisans putting themselves before party.

  47. The government has done a stupid thing (from their point of view) with their decision on the Sri Lankan family.

    The smart thing is to do more than you were expected to do – that defuses opposition. To do less or the bare minimum (as in this case) simply invites the forces against you to keep pushing. It is very high risk in political terms, becasue of you keep getting pushed to do more and more you look weaker and weaker.

  48. bc @ #1682 Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 – 12:48 pm

    guytaur says Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:18 am

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says it’s “absolute rubbish” that Scott Morrison has links to Qanon

    “This notion that the Prime Minister is close to Qanon is absolute rubbish, the PM has put out a statement to that effect” #auspol

    A great example of a strawman argument. The allegation isn’t that the PM is close to or a believer of Qanon, it’s that he’s close to and potentially influenced by someone who is. Frydenberg chose to answer a different question.

    Morrison was caught red-handed peddling QAnon coded messages.

    There is no argument given the clear evidence shown last night on 4Corners.

    Morrison is a dangerous crackpot and should be swiftly managed out of parliament.

  49. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, June 14, 2021 at 8:48 pm

    Poroti
    The co-owners of The DT in 1947 were Sir Frank Packer and our very own, ex ALP Treasurer E G Theodore
    —————————————————————————-

    In my first job after high school as a copy boy (cadet) at an American news service Sydney bureau, I typed up the international news summary every day, starting with the circulation list: FP, DMcN.* I then walked up Castlereagh St., to the Tele building and delivered it to their offices.
    *Frank Packer, Publisher and David McNicoll, editor. It was 1954/55 and I don’t think he had been knighted at that point.

  50. Dandy Murray

    …..if something isn’t explicitly stated in the your contract.

    It is a joint venture with a Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey company and it uses CESM technology. The mix of Gallic and Chinese work cultures could have made for some 😆

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