Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super

Renewed uncertainty over federal election timing, courts involved in a Victorian ALP preselection, and a poll finding overwhelming support for higher super contributions.

Below this post is a live commentary thread on local and regional elections in the United Kingdom from regular guest contributor Adrian Beaumont; I myself am overdue for new posts on late counting in Tasmania and the looming Upper Hunter by-election on May 22, so stay tuned for those over the next few days. Other than that:

• A report by Max Maddison of The Australian suggests the pendulum may be swinging back to a federal election sooner rather than later, due to “the turmoil of the start of the year dissipating and the rate of vaccinations slowly increasing”. This is said to be reflected in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s commencement of preselection proceedings this week for 13 seats, for which nominations will close on May 21.

• The Age reports that Victoria’s Supreme Court will today consider a last-minute bid by ten unions to prevent the Labor national executive from choosing a candidate for the new federal seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The national executive had been expected to vote today to endorse former state secretary Sam Rae as part of a deal between elements of Rae’s Right faction, notably federal front-bencher Richard Marles, and the Socialist Left. This freezes out the rival Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who favour the rival claim of state minister Natalie Hutchins, who is also invoking the cause of affirmative action. The legal action seeks to establish that the federal party organisation had acted improperly in taking over the state branch in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods has published results from a survey of 3459 respondents on “attitudes towards and experiences of retirement and social security income during the COVID-recession and initial recovery”. Among other things, it finds 55.0% support for an increase in compulsory superannuation from 9.5% to 12% as per current legislation, with 20.8% thinking it should be lifted even higher. Only 20.4% said it should remain at the current level, and only 3.8% believed it should be lowered or eliminated altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super”

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  1. Dandy
    The smart meters never worked as intended and is a classic example of an expensive wasteful project. The other day i thought of Bemused who claimed that smart meters had done away with meter readers but the other day i passed a guy doing that very job.

  2. Okay.
    It’s all moving pretty fast now.
    I’ve just decided, it has to be Plibersek.
    Either now or after the election defeat under Albo.
    Plibersek changes the game dynamics.
    Labor has to elect a female leader.
    Plibersek is the obvious choice.
    There are a couple of other excellent candidates but they don’t have Plibersek’s name/face recognition.
    Do it now do it later.
    Doesn’t matter.
    Now is too late.
    Later is better.
    So, it does matter.
    Let Albo have his day.
    Let Australia rue the day.
    It deserves everything it’s about to ask for.

  4. Watching Jane Halton dealing with Leigh Sales trying to verbal her shows what a class act she was as Secretary of Health

  7. Nicholas says:
    Monday, May 10, 2021 at 7:16 pm
    …might solve the problem of the shortage of rental accomodation. Excess housing supply…plentiful rentals.
    Giving massive favours to real estate speculators is a core part of the problem. They take homes away from prospective first home buyers. They don’t provide secure tenancy. Illegal practices by owners and real estate agents are rife in the private rental market. Looking to private rentals as a big part of the solution to the problem of insecure housing and housing stress is thoroughly misguided.

    We need a big and sustained expansion of high quality public housing, much stronger tenancy rights, no tax deductions for buying existing homes as investment properties, and planning laws that are not corrupt – that actually put public interests first.

    Yada yada. Let the punters buy or build houses if they like. Every new build is an addition to supply. Every incremental increase to supply whittles the coupon at the margin. There is no constituency for reform of the market in land. There should be. But there isn’t.

    Instead, the public sector can build houses. The WA Government is the largest builder in the country (so I’m told). It has a huge land bank and is using it to finance new builds and renovations. This is smart policy.

    It is absolutely the case that there is no shortage of housing. Housing is highly-priced, but this is not a function of supply and demand. It is a function of very low or negative interest rates. There is a pattern of mis allocation of accomodation because house prices have parted company with income. Low income households can afford to neither buy nor rent in an over-heated market. This can be mitigated by the socialisation of housing at the low-income end. There can be reform of the tenancy laws too. That would be very good. The housing market is not merely an asset market. It is a social market too. The public sector can focus there. A social insurance model can be developed that’s relevant to the Australian market. Perhaps every investment property should attract a social land tax.

    There’s more than one way to fix the problem…

  8. Thunberg is far from well-educated in any formal sense.

    I understand that one of the early premises of her decision making was that there was little point in her going to school if global warming was going to rob her generation of a future. She is now back at school.

    IMO, Thunberg appealed-appeals in particular to the generation which has the least power and the most to lose from global warming.

    Thunberg threatened in particular the power of members of older generations who had gained most from cooking the planet. One my issues with Thunberg (I believe previously expressed on Bludger) is that Thunberg became, in many ways, THE issue.

    On the one hand Thunberg’s capacity to distil, simplify, and deliver direct messages was/is powerful. On the other hand, global warming and the constellation of issues embodied is as complex as the whole human world.

    While Thunberg made a large number of generic statements about global warming, Thunberg’s targets, when specifically named, generally were, or operated in, western countries.

    The recent contretemps involving China is, therefore, something of a significant departure. And China, per the Global Times, hates it.

    Thunberg’s go-to is climate science. And climate science tells Thunberg exactly what Dr Physics and Dr Chemistry are doing to China’s CO2 emissions. Thunberg can now add Xi to Trump and Putin as powerful personal enemies.

  9. ‘Diogenes says:
    Monday, May 10, 2021 at 8:09 pm

    OC
    She wasn’t all that classy in Children Overboard.’

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.

  10. Attacking the democratic process comes so easily to the RW.

    Britons will have to show photo ID to vote in future general elections, ministers are poised to confirm this week, as a means of tackling fraud which critics claim could deter poorer and ethnic minority voters from taking part in democracy.

    The proposal is to be included in Tuesday’s Queen’s speech, which will set out the government’s post-pandemic priorities and the laws it intends to pass in the forthcoming parliamentary session…

    A requirement that all voters carry photo ID could impede people who wish to turn up at polling stations without planning ahead, given about a quarter of voters – often younger voters – do not have either a passport or driving licence, critics say.

    The government has previously said people would be able to apply for a voting ID card from their local council, although this would have to be done before polling day. Early trials in some areas led to hundreds of voters being turned away.

    The voting reforms, which will also include a limit on the number of postal votes that can be handed in on behalf of others, are being justified by ministers as a way to reduce the risk of electoral fraud. However, the Electoral Commission says the country “has low levels of proven electoral fraud”; in 2019 there was just one conviction and one police caution for impersonating another voter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/10/queens-speech-photo-id-future-elections-social-care

  11. What do the bookies think? From Sportsbet..

    Next Federal Election – 47th Parliament
    Pays on party which supplies the Prime Minister following the next Federal election. Bets settled at time of swearing in. All bets carry over if the Gov General does not swear in a PM because supply cannot be guaranteed.

    Coalition 1.75
    Labor 2.00
    Any Other 151.00

  12. OC
    “ Watching Jane Halton dealing with Leigh Sales trying to verbal her shows what a class act she was as Secretary of Health”

    I think you are confusing “class” with “skill”. A slippery debater does not necessarily have class.

  15. sprocket_ @ #1758 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 8:43 pm

    What do the bookies think? From Sportsbet..

    Next Federal Election – 47th Parliament
    Pays on party which supplies the Prime Minister following the next Federal election. Bets settled at time of swearing in. All bets carry over if the Gov General does not swear in a PM because supply cannot be guaranteed.

    Coalition 1.75
    Labor 2.00
    Any Other 151.00

    Didn’t Sportsbet pay out on a Labor win at the last election? And then we lost?

  16. mundo @ #1749 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 7:59 pm

    Okay.
    It’s all moving pretty fast now.
    I’ve just decided, it has to be Plibersek.
    Either now or after the election defeat under Albo.
    Plibersek changes the game dynamics.
    Labor has to elect a female leader.
    Plibersek is the obvious choice.
    There are a couple of other excellent candidates but they don’t have Plibersek’s name/face recognition.
    Do it now do it later.
    Doesn’t matter.
    Now is too late.
    Later is better.
    So, it does matter.
    Let Albo have his day.
    Let Australia rue the day.
    It deserves everything it’s about to ask for.

    Absolute crap.

    Lovely lady that she is, as I have exhaustively explained before, you can’t get more ‘Inner City’ than Tanya. She would have it hung around her neck like an albatross. The Coalition are great at stuff like that. Morrison has already put the meme out there with his speech the other week.

    Stop trying to convince yourself that Albanese is so bad. Frankly, with your Southern Tasmania sensibility you can only see things from a Left Progressive perspective, which is where the rest of Australia is just not at.

    * See Ben Raue for his discussion of the Southern/Northern Tasmania political divide.

    Anyway, it’s the Right’s turn to supply the leader next, should Albanese from the Left, lose. Tanya is also from the Left.

  18. Labor seems to always fight the last war.

    1. Hawke / Keating lost for being too economically conservative.
    2. Beazley/ Crean had to show they were not Hawke and Keating
    3. RGR wars where all about internal stability, therefore
    4. No questions about the toxic unpopularity of Shorten could be raised because this was internal disunity
    5. Shorten had too detailed policies, eg negative gearing, therefore
    6. Albo has to have no policies or the zero target.

  19. Socrates @ #1759 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 8:44 pm

    OC
    “ Watching Jane Halton dealing with Leigh Sales trying to verbal her shows what a class act she was as Secretary of Health”

    I think you are confusing “class” with “skill”. A slippery debater does not necessarily have class.

    Exactly. Though I can see why Oakeshott Country would be enamoured with one such as Halton. A real pro.

  21. 6. Albo has to have no policies or the zero target.

    This is what too many people fail to comprehend.

    An election is not about the policies so much anymore, it’s about the presentation of the leader.

    Similar to that old Slim Dusty song,

    Oakeshott Country @ #1767 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 9:15 pm

    Always the bullying eh c@t

    Always the victim, eh OC? When you’re not being a Liberal fanboy.

  23. So, this is the first, unfinished comment, now finished:

    6. Albo has to have no policies or the zero target.

    This is what too many people fail to comprehend.

    An election is not about the policies so much anymore, it’s about the presentation of the leader.

    Similar to that old Slim Dusty song, ‘I love to have a beer with Duncan’.
    Albo has to become ‘Duncan’ so people feel comfortable with him. Wouldn’t surprise me if Morrison has a similar modus operandi.

  24. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, May 10, 2021 at 8:47 pm

    Boerwar:

    I hope Bluey is seeking royalties…

    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/dog-lead-why-experts-say-parents-should-follow-bluey-20210312-p57a49.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Gp9wFB3k-4BDeWZ2BKzMyOT7PmtWc5KKEc65UULcPeKn_vNVp7oAXDYo#Echobox=1620614397‘
    ———————————————————————
    Well, the Occy is a grumpy bugger slowly cooking away in the raised SSTs in a dying Reef.

    IMO, THE Bluey is one of Australia’s greatest ever cultural exports. It is quite common in our household to have family members with ages 65 years apart all enjoying a Bluey episode. I nearly always feel like a much better human being after watching Bluey.

  25. IMO, THE Bluey is one of Australia’s greatest ever cultural exports. It is quite common in our household to have family members with ages 65 years apart all enjoying a Bluey episode. I nearly always feel like a much better human being after watching Bluey.

    F’n aye.

  31. Rational Leftist @ #1646 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 7:48 pm

    I find it kind of weird you think that’s weird.
    If she was ugly, how much press coverage do you think she would get?

    I don’t know. My first thought when seeing a young teen activist wasn’t “Phwoar!!!” though, so what do I know?

    I think you misunderstand my use of the term “attractive”. I meant “capable of attracting”, not “Phwoar!“.

    I find your interpretation actually a little disturbing 🙁

  32. “I thought Bluey had been cancelled for being racist? No?”

    No, dickhead. Can you please try to stop making shit up? Ta

  35. C@tmomma @ #1684 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 10:26 pm

    Tom the first and best @ #1777 Monday, May 10th, 2021 – 9:57 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/07/miscellany-election-timing-victorian-alp-turmoil-compulsory-super/comment-page-34/#comment-3604144

    The main person convincing people that Albanese is a bad leader, is Albanese himself.

    Says one anonymous poster on a politics blog, with an obvious anti-Labor agenda.

    Says one anonymous poster on a politics blog, with an obvious pro-Labor agenda. 🙂

  36. Remember when debt and deficit was bad.
    Then the Liberals got in and now debt and deficit is the best thing since slice bread, Scomo and Frydalberg are hitting a home runs every day according to MSM.
    Imagine expecting anyone in Labor having a chance at the game when its so rigged.

  38. Player One,
    lolz,

    I heard albo on the radio. He needs to practice responses to questions and be more soundbite-able.

    Tomorrows budget will be an unrestrained bribe of the middleclass. Remember when the greens voted to get rid of the debt ceiling. So it won’t even make the news when the future is saddled with the debt to payoff Fbergs bribes.

    It’s akin to taking super money as a house deposit. All round bad idea.

    Anyway, good luck Albo. I feel he hasn’t been making much of his own lately, so I honestly wish him luck.

    Anyway, Terri Butler, Woman from QLD.

  40. Yes yes, Labor needs a compelling leader, whilst the Liberals can get elected with chumps like Abbott, seems fair doesn’t it.

  41. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, May 10, 2021 at 10:09 pm

    The dickheads are the woke idiots saying a cartoon about dogs isn’t “diverse” enough.

  42. Howard championed Work choices which was his downfall.
    Govt gets back in unless something really gets the electors going. Who the leader of the opposition is has no relevance.
    Maybe lots of little things accumulate to motivate voters to say enough is enough but lots gets forgotten.
    Remember Robert and the IT bill, Cormann and Hello World travel, Taylor – water, grass and coal, debt of $T1, jobs for mates, Robo Debt, hack NDIS, the AG alleged rapist, lying cow, bushfire and funds, promises with no delivery, massive Corporate tax cuts, coal and gas, no renewable etc etc etc.
    Labor needs their own TV channel or podcast or social media outlet to counter the cover ups that other media provide to Scummo and crooks Inc

  45. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/07/miscellany-election-timing-victorian-alp-turmoil-compulsory-super/comment-page-34/#comment-3604172

    There are harder and occasionally easier elections for opposition leaders to win. A bad opposition leader is comparatively* more likely to loose any given election. A good opposition leader is comparatively* more likely to win any given election.

    * Comparison between good and bad opposition leaders, not government and opposition.

  46. While I know it’s somewhat hacky to compare Australian PMs to US Presidents, I always feel Abbott was very Donald Trump. He rallied reactionaries and spoke to white male grievance, was at times unhinged and erratic (confusing the hell out his opponents and making them underestimate and sneer at him), threw out some populist rhetoric and, most importantly, let the other side eat each other. Heck, both had the unpopular woman as their opponent whose support was weakened by resentment by the hardline supporters of the man they feel she robbed.

    And in both cases, they did such a shit job of governance, their legacy is that of failure, regardless of how amazing their rise was.

    I guess the only difference is Trump squeezed in by winning in exactly the right places to win the electoral college, while Australia overwhelmingly voted for Abbott to become PM. Go Australia.

  48. It’s a reasonably popular 7-minute show, RL

    Also from Wikipedia:

    In March 2019, it was reported that Bluey had become the most downloaded program in the history of ABC’s video on demand and catch up TV service ABC iview, with 21.3 million total episode plays.[20] Within one year of the show’s premiere, this figure had risen to 152 million, and by May 2020, there had been 261 million plays of episodes from the first series.[5][76] It was also reported that the second series had totalled 43 million episode plays by May.[76] Each episode of the second series had averaged 2.7 million plays by September.

  50. I thought Bluey got attacked for being dog-breedist. It only features the same breed of dog.

    Yeah nah.

    So much uninformed Bluey commentary. I am disappointed in you lot.

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