Affirmative inaction

Federal preselection season keeps rumbling on, with the Queensland LNP settling a keenly fought Senate contest on the weekend.

Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.

On with the show:

• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.

• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 thoughts on “Affirmative inaction”

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  1. I don’t think Hayne did himself any favours in his own defence. And then trying to use his Christianity as a shield doesn’t really work when you are having what he claimed was “consensual sex” outside of your marriage.

  2. P1

    It may surprise you but it is not 1945.
    Japan is now a rich country, rich people, excellent products with an ageing population.

  4. Mavis
    Hayne should have been a federal Liberal MP or cabinet minister. He would have got off scot free and probably promoted.

  5. N
    China has a young population

    Have a look at – Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy’ by George Magnus.

    He says – four key traps that China must confront and overcome in order to thrive:

    – debt,

    – middle income,

    – the Renminbi, and

    – an ageing population.

    Looking at the political direction President Xi Jinping is taking, he argue that while we cannot guarantee that autocratic methods won’t be successful, Xi’s authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country’s economic aspirations.

    https://georgemagnus.com/books/

    Further links –
    https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/can-xi-jinping-s-china-be-rich-and-communist-at-the-same-time-20190410-p51cot

    https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/10/24/book-review-red-flags-why-xis-china-is-in-jeopardy/

    Plus take your pick of George giving presentations on YouTube –

  6. It may surprise you but it is not 1945.

    Not as far as the Coalition is concerned. We are still fucking there.

  8. P1

    A simple math is why Dutton thinks he is on a winner even as he looks insane to most of us.

    The economies of the world under existing international rules based order is greater than China’s.

    China got its humiliating history from the empires of the west because it’s size fooled it into thinking it could afford to arrogantly do business as usual.

    China is in the same mindset again. This while it has fully adopted a western ideology as it’s economic system. A system that has demonstrably failed by the original country to take that system up. Russia.

  12. dave
    I subscribe to some of that. In my view Xi Jinping has screwed up.

    I don’t think debt is an issue, they have built a lot of stuff that gives no economic return that is for sure, but the reality we can now build more shit than we need, in the west it is called a consumer market, we junk our non lasting china goods regularly.

    China’s debt is internal and in my view MMT is right, the debt can be cancelled if they so desire.

    You can only build so much hire speed rail, highways and units that are not occupied.

  14. Player One says:
    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 3:52 pm
    “frednk @ #1450 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 3:48 pm

    It may surprise you but it is not 1945.
    I wish you could convince the war-mongers who seem to infest our government, public service and military”

    No, it’s not 1945, however with China’s expansionist territory grabbing in the South China Sea it is similar to the early 1930’s. While diplomacy is the preferred course to improve relations with China we also need to be ready to be able to defend our interests. We can’t allow Australia to be so woefully under prepared to fight like it was in the 1930’s and end up fighting on the back foot again.

  15. Frednk

    dave
    In my view Xi Jinping has screwed up.

    Doesn’t seem ‘smart’ to pick fights with everyone – including his own people.

    Saw a comment the other day putting chinese ‘defence’ spending in perspective – claiming they spend 10 times as much on keeping tabs on their own people?

  19. On Scott Morrison's Taiwan policy blunder, @SenatorWong tells @GuardianAus: "In diplomacy .. words matter. There are few more sensitive issues for our security than Taiwan and Mr Morrison’s lack of focus on detail is enough to keep you up at night" https://t.co/w1DRsV1510— Daniel Hurst (@danielhurstbne) May 6, 2021

    I think Wong understates how damaging Morrison is to Australia’s well-being.

  21. China isn’t Communist and hasn’t been for a couple of decades. It is a Totalitarian Capitalistic Dictatorship.

  23. Bucephalus at 4:21 pm

    China isn’t Communist and hasn’t been for a couple of decades. It is a Totalitarian Capitalistic Dictatorship.

    The ‘owners’ of the Coalition would be green with envy.

  25. “Hayne should have been a federal Liberal MP or cabinet minister. He would have got off scot free and probably promoted”

    He is in Hillsong and that didn’t help him. A friend of mine has been on the Jack de Belin jury for over three weeks now. Sworn to secrecy and took it seriously. The only thing we really know is that they are now in the deliberation stage and have been since Monday.

    As far as I know, de Belin isn’t in the Liberal Party or Hillsong so he would be sweating up a storm at this point. The other accused is now a Cronulla Sharks lower grader so he is probably sweet.

  30. If I was Xi, I would immediately pick up the phone to Morrison, thank him profusely for his change of heart and offer to lift the trade sanctions 🙂

  31. Player One

    Is that Eastern Totalitarian Capitalistic Dictatorship or Western Totalitarian Capitalistic Dictatorship?

    I’m having flashbacks to Monty Python’s Communist quiz show skit 😆

  33. lizzie at 4:27 pm

    Karvelas is having trouble reining in Keneally. Literally like a horse that has bolted.

    When they were both regulars on Foxtel panels they had no probs getting their word in despite the presence of the Paul Murrays the Kenneys and the Bolts and the Jones etc. I dipped me lid to them being able to do that against the knuckle draggers. Keneally obviously kept that skill well honed. To do it against Kervelas a fine effort.

  34. The Communist Manifesto was published in 1848, the year of the Commune in that pearl of the orient, Paris.

    Marx, a co-author of the Manifesto, was a student of the famous Confucian/Taoist, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, who developed a branch of Buddhism called dialectics. This was an advance on the Confucian Analects. Unknown to most, Hegel was born in Stuttgart, a minor village in the Chinese province of Szechuan.

    Marx himself is buried alongside Emmanuel Kant in a Ming vase in a cemetery in Kensington, a small park in Qingdao, Eastern Shandong Province. The formative role of these Chinese scholars in European/occidental philosophy and politics has been little-published, reflecting the cultural imperialism of European and Yankee capitalism.


  36. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 4:18 pm

    Frednk
    China can’t use MMT to eliminate its debt because its currency is pegged to the US dollar.

    Why does that matter? They will be refinancing the banks in Renminbi, not US dollars.
    China will have problems if their trade balance with the USA and Europe changes direction and they run out of US dollars.

  38. I had my first AstraZeneca Covid jab today at my local doctor’s surgery. A few observations:

    The surgery no longer has the barrier in front of the reception counter so that you can go very close to the receptionist and sneeze if you want to;
    The instruction to sanitise your hands no longer happens, although there is still a bottle of said liquid (I did mine);
    There are no longer any spaces between the seats so social distancing is difficult;
    The nurse who gave me the injection told me that she had not yet been vaccinated;
    She was not wearing a mask;
    I spent around 30 minutes all told in the surgery although there was no QR code (I suppose this isn’t a problem as they have my details in any case and know I attended).

    On my way home I called into a cafe for lunch. I tried to sign in via the QR code (nobody polices this action any more) but because of a problem with my phone, it didn’t register. I asked if I could leave my details manually but was told not to bother as it wasn’t a problem!

    This is in Wagga where tomorrow the Gold Cup will be run. As a result all accommodation is full and the cafe I went to was very busy, as were others I passed on my route.

    Fortunately, this being Gold Standard NSW, I don’t expect any problems later in the week as, according to Gladys, we should, wtte, be getting on with our lives and not let a little thing like Covid bother us. After all, it’s only those cowardly states who close their borders.

    For those few who may think I’m serious with that last para – it’s pure sarcasm!

  40. Back when we still believed the amount of money available should be limited to the amount of gold that could be mined, china has a silver standard. In the end didn’t help, still had another civil war.

  42. Ballantyne

    My local medical centre in NE Melbourne is the opposite to yours. Masks are still compulsory and all the distancing still in place. If you get sick, just lie back and think of Golden Gladys!!

  44. Here in Melbourne, masks and hand hygiene are still required in all medical facilities including aged care and public transport

  45. Ballantyne, woke up in the early hours this am after AZ jab yesterday and had the chills and soreness in my arm…have some Panadol handy as it sorts it quickly.

  46. I had my 1st AZ shot in Bondi Junction yesterday, at a NSW respiratory clinic. These seem to are the best bet if you want your dose in Sydney before your GP gets enough doses.

    Felling good apart from a sore injection action site – happens too me with most injections now, especially with tetanus shots, which leaves me very sore for a few days – I suspect my immunity to tetanus long-term is quite good these days.

    On my way to get the AZ, I got the message about the community case in Bondi Junction. Luckily my visits to Westfield were at different times, but it was a bit freaky being in the food court for a bite to eat.

    Another worry: I was in a room with 5 injection bays. while I was there a couple asked to talk to a doctor, because they are travelling to Greece in 7 weeks. The way they talked they already have their waver. Business or first class tickets?

    They want their second AZ shot in 6 weeks, and wanted assurance from the doctor they they would have high enough immunity. He gave them the stats at his fingertips – only 51% immunity if doses 6 weeks apart, over 80% at 12 weeks separation.

    They then wanted to reassurance that if they did catch COVID in Greece they would not get particularly sick, and laughed and said that they had survived in Australia unvaccinated.

    The doctor was very polite – I was impressed – but but became just a touch strident when explaining how Australia has been ridiculously isolated from COVID, and that they will find very different conditions overseas, where COVID is prevalent.

    I do not think they got it, or took him seriously.

  47. Frednk
    It matters because it is the floating currency that gives a country control over it. China doesn’t have a floating currency and because of that China faces the same problems Argentina has.

  48. Dog’s Breakfast

    Ballantyne, woke up in the early hours this am after AZ jab yesterday and had the chills and soreness in my arm…have some Panadol handy as it sorts it quickly.

    Same here – the chills were mild but I definitely found it took a while for the analgesic to work, and to get back to sleep.

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