Affirmative inaction

Federal preselection season keeps rumbling on, with the Queensland LNP settling a keenly fought Senate contest on the weekend.

Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.

On with the show:

• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.

Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.

• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Affirmative inaction”

Comments Page 11 of 33
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  1. If there’s anyone here who follows the AFL and watches Footy Classified regularly, can you please tell me why Caroline Wilson is not on the panel at the moment. She’s been missing for weeks and I’ve been unable to find out why.

  2. south,

    Sure, there are three things wrong with polling. It’s when you are in front, behind and breaking even.

    If you’re not going to take any notice of polls, why come to a psephological site.

    My contention has been that the political dial hasn’t changed much since the last election and that the outcome at this stage is far too close to call. Given the free ride the Government has had due to support for popular support of the Covid response, that’s not a bad position for Labor to be in at this stage of the political cycle.

    Given the success of incumbent Governments during the Covid phase, I’m guessing we are going to have a give away Budget as a precursor to an Election later this year. Morrison may not want to risk putting it off too long.

  3. PM has promised that Biosecurity will “take on more dogs” to check imported goods. This will provide extra employment for trainers and handlers. Joshie will be pleased. (Comment: this cannot happen quickly, so just another promise for the future.)

  4. ar,

    No matter how you want to dress it up, a two week pause in people returning from India is not a calamitous outrage to human rights.

    I’m guessing that most Australians will see it as a prudent step to protect the broader community from a dangerous pandemic that is ravaging the world.

    In that two weeks I expect the Government will review why the protocols in place are not working and what needs to be done to prevent the spike in infected people jumping on planes to return to Australia from continuing.

  5. Given how brazen/ care factor zero/ inept Dog’s HR dep’s choice appears to be, time to check out the devil’s …

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #506 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 10:57 am

    ar,

    No matter how you want to dress it up, a two week pause in people returning from India is not a calamitous outrage to human rights.

    I’m guessing that most Australians will see it as a prudent step to protect the broader community from a dangerous pandemic that is ravaging the world.

    In that two weeks I expect the Government will review why the protocols in place are not working and what needs to be done to prevent the spike in infected people jumping on planes to return to Australia from continuing.

    Sure, at this point in time, in these circumstances, the pause makes some sense. But telling Australians they can not return home (making it illegal no less), putting up a fence to keep out your own citizens trying to escape a dangerous situation, is dystopian. It is a F up. It is one F up in a cluster of F up’s. It is a reactionary policy caused by lack of foresight by a government more focussed on spin and blame shifting and puff pieces and donations than governing.

    It took a public outcry (I certainly bored people to tears with my whining about it) for Murphy et al to ban incoming foreigners from Wuhan and then mainland China in Feb 2020. But even then they were allowing Australian citizens back in.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #503 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 11:27 am

    I’m guessing that most Australians will see it as a prudent step to protect the broader community from a dangerous pandemic that is ravaging the world.

    If it only lasts for two weeks, it won’t even do that. No way are India’s numbers returning to non-apocalpytic levels that quickly.

    And if the issues with our quarantine procedures for repatriates can be fixed in two weeks…why the hell haven’t they been, already?

  8. I see #stupidfatidiot has slipped out of the top 10 twitter trend. Only trended for 13hours. Twitter peeps are so fickle.

  9. a r
    One thing the two weeks will do is give them a breather to check wtf was happening with the pre-flight Plague tests. Saw some figures that pointed to it happening here and it happened bigly in NZ , many passengers were testing positive on arrival. This despite supposedly negative tests withing 72 hours of departure.

  10. First it was the Indian Australians/ Australians in India that could not come home without threat of imprisonment. Who next?
    What guarantee do you have the next time you leave the country, the Govt wont make it illegal for you to return?
    This is a dangerous precedent.

  11. Poroti
    The word is that in some countries it is neither difficult or expensive to buy a negative test

  12. Torchbearer @ #514 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 12:09 pm

    First it was the Indian Australians/ Australians in India that could not come home without threat of imprisonment. Who next?
    What guarantee do you have the next time you leave the country, the Govt wont make it illegal for you to return?
    This is a dangerous precedent.

    Good point.

  13. “ I see #stupidfatidiot has slipped out of the top 10 twitter trend. Only trended for 13hours. Twitter peeps are so fickle.”

    If Bruz does actually issue writs then it’ll go back into overdrive.

    Did anyone else notice that the legal letter was sent on 22 December 2020 and that Bruz only said he WAS suing when provoked by ‘the gatekeeper’ in that Mac Uni stunt at the end (which I assume was very recent)? It will be a big call for Bruz to make to actually follow through with the threat.

    Popcorn time. I hope.

  14. I don’t like this at all.

    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    Breaking: Woman falls to her knees and prays to the Prime Minister begging he help her family in Africa. Happened after he finished his press conference in Rockhampton #7NEWS #auspol

  15. cat,

    I doubt Jordie has any assets in his name. So, Barilaro suing him is an exercise in futility.

    Jordie is the most difficult political opponent to deal with. He’s got nothing to lose and the notoriety of being bullied in to submission will probably make him a multi millionaire.

  16. Riverside tower’s designer to run for Greens in federal election

    The Brisbane architect who co-designed the soaring 443 Queen Street tower that looms over Brisbane’s heritage-listed Customs House will try to win the blue-ribbon federal seat of Ryan for the Greens.

    On Tuesday the party will announce Elizabeth Watson-Brown, design strategy leader at Architectus Australia, as their candidate for the western Brisbane seat held by first-term LNP MP Julian Simmonds.

    Architectus Australia and Singapore-based WOHA designed the Queen Street skyscraper, which they described as Queensland’s “first truly subtropical apartment tower”.

    Ms Watson-Brown is a Life Fellow of the Australian Institute of Architects and previously ran her own architecture firm.

    Greens leader Adam Bandt will make the announcement in Brisbane on Tuesday, while also naming retail worker Stephen Bates as the party’s candidate to run against LNP Assistant Minister Trevor Evans in the seat of Brisbane.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/riverside-tower-s-designer-to-run-for-greens-in-federal-election-20210503-p57ojs.html

  17. Greens call for reform to Victoria’s ‘corrupt’ Upper House voting system

    Is the election of Victoria’s Upper House fair and transparent? The results suggest perhaps not.

    Greens MP Sue Pennicuik’s 12-year parliamentary career ground to a halt in 2018 after she lost her Upper House seat to a man who won just 1.2 per cent of the primary vote.

    Despite winning 49,803 more votes than the Sustainable Australia Party’s Clifford Hayes, Ms Pennicuik lost due to preference flows thrashed out between parties through group voting tickets.

    Victoria is just one of two states that still uses group voting tickets, where deals struck between micro-parties allow them to game the system.

    “The current system is corrupt. It is legal. But it stinks. And unless the government fixes it, it’s a stain on the government’s reputation,” said Greens MP Tim Read.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-04/victoria-s-upper-house-voting-system-is-broken-but-legal/100113092

  18. Andrew_Earlwood
    #SuperBarilaroBruz

    Andrew when Jordan say to John “this is a recording” can that be taken the same as “you are being recorded”?

  19. Oakeshott Country
    Day Zero positive tests were not very common until the rush for the exit door out of India. Suddenly a large proportion of arrivals were testing positive on Day Zero tests.. Dodgy negative tests or lots of super unlucky returning citizens ? 😉

  20. Bystander

    No idea as to why Caroline Wilson hasn’t been on footy classified lately.
    I’m curious to know why as well.

  21. What is supposed to happen or be different after May 15 that would allow the Indian returnee BAN to be rescinded? or is temporary just a ruse?

  22. Bill and Melinda Gates getting a divorce. Reminds me of a joke I heard back when they got married.

    Q: What did Melinda say to Bill Gates on their wedding night?

    A: “Now I know why you called your company ‘Micro-Soft’!

  23. There has been a lot of negative comment about Morrison’s midnight ban on India-Australian returning to Australia. However, if, as it has been said, that when he speaks, he is really only communicating with one group, and that is men who might be thinking of switching their vote to Labor, then I think that he is on a winner with this one.

  24. Bystander says:
    Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 11:13 am

    If there’s anyone here who follows the AFL and watches Footy Classified regularly, can you please tell me why Caroline Wilson is not on the panel at the moment. She’s been missing for weeks and I’ve been unable to find out why
    ————————
    Caroline Wilson has been taking midseason European holiday for a few years now.

  25. Haven’t we often had a pause on people returning from Covid hit areas, like Italy and China?
    I thought the only difference is the threat of jail or fines which seems ridiculous.

  26. Zerlo
    Nothing to do with it, these are all hotel quarantine residents who are tested if symptomatic but otherwise on days 2, 12 and 16 (after release)
    The hotel staff have daily sputum tests

  27. Dio
    I suspect the jail and fines have been there since at least the new bio security act. They have been given prominence because of the loophole that was being used to return from India via a 3rd country

  28. Mark Butler MP
    @Mark_Butler_MP
    ·
    41m
    Scott Morrison said 4 million Australians would be vaccinated by the end of March.

    His next target is 6 million by the 10th of May but we’ve only just passed 2 million vaccinations.

    The Prime Minister must set new targets and get the vaccine rollout back on track.

    Thank God for our saviour Morrison.

  29. Bystander
    Caroline might not have gone to Europe this year because of the virus but that is where she goes and i read somewhere that she has a daughter living there.

  30. There’s nothing stopping Labor from articulating similar sentiments in a less offensive way if they truly want to retain these votes and turn around that male voting intention deficit. Clotmo has clearly articulated his strategy. Turn it to your advantage in a way that doesn’t offend other Labor voters. Surely there’s someone in the strategy team with an ounce of intelligence.

    Stuart says:
    Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 12:45 pm
    There has been a lot of negative comment about Morrison’s midnight ban on India-Australian returning to Australia. However, if, as it has been said, that when he speaks, he is really only communicating with one group, and that is men who might be thinking of switching their vote to Labor, then I think that he is on a winner with this one.

  31. Diogenes,

    You are spot on.

    The big issue is the fog horn threats of jail and or fines made by Morrison government in the middle of Sunday night.

    In no earlier pause of commercial flights from “ hot zones”such as China has the government found it necessary to threaten Australian citizens trying to return. In fact, when the China pause was put in place repatriation flights were arranged and returning Australian citizens were quarantined on Christmas Island. No threats of jail. No threats of $60,000 fines.

    Similar circumstances. Two very different responses. Yet, the s@me biosecurity legislation was in place.

    Why the different response now is the question. This is what labor, the AMA and others are calling out. Not the pause in commercial flights. But the huge overaction regarding threats of up to five years jail.

    Cheers.

  32. “ Jordie should start a GoFundMe page for his legal costs. ”

    Jordy is effectively judgment proof (ie. he has no assets) and has already used his latest video as a fundraiser for any legal costs incurred IF Bruz actually presses the button.

    Before now, most of the money Jordy makes – after paying wages and deducting living expenses – seems to be donated to environmental and indigenous causes. He’s not on this for the money.

  33. Theo Andelini @ #528 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 12:34 pm

    Greens call for reform to Victoria’s ‘corrupt’ Upper House voting system

    Is the election of Victoria’s Upper House fair and transparent? The results suggest perhaps not.

    Greens MP Sue Pennicuik’s 12-year parliamentary career ground to a halt in 2018 after she lost her Upper House seat to a man who won just 1.2 per cent of the primary vote.

    Despite winning 49,803 more votes than the Sustainable Australia Party’s Clifford Hayes, Ms Pennicuik lost due to preference flows thrashed out between parties through group voting tickets.

    Victoria is just one of two states that still uses group voting tickets, where deals struck between micro-parties allow them to game the system.

    “The current system is corrupt. It is legal. But it stinks. And unless the government fixes it, it’s a stain on the government’s reputation,” said Greens MP Tim Read.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-04/victoria-s-upper-house-voting-system-is-broken-but-legal/100113092

    I vote below the line. So should others.

  34. “ Andrew when Jordan say to John “this is a recording” can that be taken the same as “you are being recorded”?”

    I think the actual words used were ‘this is recording’. IMO the words are capable of being construed as having the same meaning as ‘you are being recorded’, but I’m not sure the entire context of what was a gotcha call amounts to ‘implied consent’ as Jordy opines.

  35. The threat of jail and fines were made to simply pump up the “ tough border” creditdentials of Morrison.

    On the weekend the Morrison government were chest beating about jail and fines. Today is only Tuesday and Morrison now claims that no one will be put in jail or fined. What has happened in only two days ?

    Pure politics. Nothing more. Nothing less.

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