Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Scott Morrison recovers much of the ground he lost on personal approval in the last Newspoll, which as usual records little change on voting intention.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52-48 last time, with similarly slight movement on the primary vote, with the Coalition up a point to 41%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%. Scott Morrison recovers much of the ground he lost on personal ratings in the last poll, being up four on approval to 59% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 40% and up two to 43%, though these changes do not alter the general stability of his position over the longer term. Morrison now leads 56-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 52-32 in the last poll and identical to the result in the previous poll six weeks ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,951 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I had a sticky beak at Sydney Council’s plans for further pedestrianising streets. Looks good.

    When I was kicking around Sydney Council’s offices a few years back, talking to the transport people, some of this was being discussed. I’m very pleased to see it but the timeline is slow.

    Its amazing what happens when you take streets away from cars. Fewer cars! Funny that. The backstory here is that if you go back to the 1950s and 60s the planners of the day had a bunch of motorways, all pointed at the CBD. They got some of their wishes and the CBD suffered for it. Fortunately the trend has reversed.

    Still, if you want radical, I’d also tear down most of the Western Distributor and the Cahill 🙂

  2. Cud Chewer @ #355 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 7:02 pm

    C@t

    I laughed. Its just turd polishing.

    Really? It’s all over the news. ‘Gladys going to get another thing done’. Rhubarb rhubarb.

    So, not even the new line to Nowra will speed up commutes?

    And they certainly have produced a graphic of a HSR train going across the Hawkesbury River Bridge to exemplify their aim. So what gives?

  3. Vensays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 5:22 pm

    “No I will not retract it because”

    ………

    She only murdered 50 thousand Koalas?

  4. In the spirit of Sun Tzu… “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
    …this one is worth a read.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222392.shtml

    Astute Bludger Armchair Admiral Sinophobes will spot the small step in military escalation (along with a general threat of more of the same), as described by the Global Times. The Global Times is required reading if you want to know the Official China Line on whatever. For example, Xinjiang is a Wonderful Land. But I digress.

    Are there any Bludgers left who, still mesmerized by a lifetime of reacting to western imperialism, racism and military superiority, will start chatting about how the evil United States… does bad things?

    If so, they will have totally missed the three essential points here:
    The first is that the Islands dispute is between two Asian states.
    The second is that China is, for the first time, sending military aircraft into territory claimed by Japan.
    The third is that China here, as in so much else, is an actor; not a reactor to the West.

  5. All considered, if Biden can get some decent and hopefully effective policy in place then good on him and people should get behind him.

    Also, learn a few lessons on the possible and use it to put the fire to Morriscums feet as well as inspiring the ALP. Always remember in that NOTHING will really change in Australia until the Lib/Nats are out of Govt, with Labor, or Labor / Greens in control of the Senate.

  6. C@t

    Pissing myself laughing here. There’s no one in TfNSW with the vision and the courage to step outside the incrementalist mindset. That’s putting it politely.

    They hired Professor McNaughton to do a study. I had the pleasure of sitting down and talking through the whole issue with him for some hours and I’ve remained in contact since.

    What happened to his report is it got shelved as too ambitious. Instead, the usual suspects in TfNSW went and dusted off some old ideas and have continued to push them as “affordable options”. Its really boiled down to this. Bruised egos and all.

    As for Bomaderry, what they’re doing currently is building more passing loops that would allow a half hourly service rather than an hourly service. Ok, that’s progress, but its not really earth shattering. They have studied electrification, but this is several hundred million worth and won’t happen (not enough users). I do have a solution for this problem.

    As for the rumoured 25 minutes faster trip to Wollongong. My best guess is this relates to a proposed bypass (tunnel). I actually proposed this myself as an adjunct to a HSR network. In other words, the fast route from Wollongong to most of Sydney would be via Wilton/Campbelltown, but the bypass would make it faster to go from Wollongong to the Sutherland shire.

    Newcastle to Sydney remains in limbo. They know as I do that there’s no small-budget fixes. You either spend billions and which case you build a new line, or you give up.

  7. “ajmsays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 6:29 pm

    Biden’s speech is as much a reflection of how mainstream opinion has shifted in the US as it is of his agency in pushing the policies he is presenting. As Shakespeare put it in Julius Caesar: “There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.”

    Did you see how Pelosi clapped after Biden speech? First and foremost it was not insulting in gesture.

  8. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 7:04 pm
    Arthur @ #1840 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 6:48 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 6:23 pm

    “But they may have their own iron ore and a steel indurtry. As (for example) Russia, Brazil, Kazakstan, and India all do.

    Sure, they don’t have as much iron ore as Australia does, but the point is not to eliminate Australia completely, it is to put downward pressure on iron ore prices.”

    ……….

    I must be very bored.

    If China wants to reduce its reliance on Australian iron ore by importing more steel, it has be getting it from somewhere, in which case some other country (or countries) must be missing out.

    Given the stuff doesn’t just grow on trees, those countries will either source it from somewhere else, or if China is Bogarting the lot, they will need to find another way to get steel to build things.

    Such countries will then either import iron ore (from Australia) and produce it themselves, or buy steel from a producing country, which will in turn purchase an increased amount iron ore (from Australia) precicely commensurate with the quantity China is no longer importing.

    They are shitting in their own nest.

  9. On 7:30 report
    The first item is about Andrew Laming
    He claims he is diagnosed with ADHD.

    A new woman says he did not take no for an answer

  10. ajm @ #373 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 7:34 pm

    Here we go again. 730 is platforming some more women who felt threatened by Laming. Not going away despite the ADHD defence.

    The Coalition really are throwing every trick in the book at the Laming defense. They had the dutiful wife standing by him, saying butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. What next? Mother Theresa comes back from the dead like Jesus and and gives him her blessing!?!

    You’ve got to wonder, other than the parliamentary arithmetic, why they are trying so hard to stop this guy going to his political grave? Is he that charismatic in his electorate that to lose him would mean the Liberals would lose the seat? I can think of no other reason.

  11. Morrison acted with alacrity on Victoria’s Belt & Road agreement but hasn’t said much about the 99-year lease on the Port of Darwin, entered into in 2015 by the NT Government and the Chinese company Landbridge, which is surely at least potentially more a threat to our sovereignty than any B & R agreement, claiming that ‘if any adverse assessments were made by security agencies, he would respond as necessary.’

    I guess the fact that it was entered into by the NT Tories has nothing to do with his inaction or that $506m (pro-rata) would have to paid by the Cth, as the NT couldn’t afford to as its GSP is only $27.512B, 1.4% of Australia’s GDP. And I wonder what the US thinks of a Chinese company being the lease-holder of a port close to where its marines are based?

  12. Herald Sun 29/04
    Controversial media personality Magda Szubanski’s return to the TV screen has been delayed and comes after she recently lashed out at the Prime Minister’s wife.

    The Melbourne-based comedian is hosting Channel 9’s Weakest Link program, which was locked in to launch on May 4 but this has now been pushed back by weeks.

    A Nine spokesman confirmed the reboot of the television game show has been delayed.

    “Due to the tight production schedule Weakest Link will now launch at the end of May on Channel 9,” he said.

    The program is being filmed out of Melbourne and call-outs for contestants to apply to be on the show has been extended multiple times.
    ___________________________________________________________

    Has got ratings flop written all over it after her twitter attack on Jenny Morrison.
    Interesting the multiple call outs for contestants, obviously no one wants to be on the show.

  13. Cud,
    Thanks for that. I suspect, as you probably do too, that Gladys has announced all this now so she can campaign in Labor seats in the run-up to the next election and promise us all the moon and sixpence.

  14. Is Andrew Laming claiming not to be fully in charge of and not fully responsible for his words and actions on account of his condition? Is he claiming, in effect, that he is not an adult? Maybe that should preclude his continued presence in Parliament.

  15. ajmsays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 6:37 pm

    “Anyone who thinks that China’s recent actions in regard to China are part of some grand plan of subjugating our proud nation really needs to take a bit of a time out to chill.
    To me it resembles something like someone giving a rather playful and annoying young puppy a few clips across the ear.
    If we had any sense we’d go and have a snooze in the corner until our “persecutor” calmed down a but.”

    ……..

    Alternatively, we could sneak a submarine into the Taiwan Strait and blow their 40 year old Ukrainian rust bucket of an aircraft carrier to kingdom come.

    Result would be same-same.

  16. I wonder if Labor will use the coalition’s embrace of debt and deficit to it’s own political advantage?
    Put some old misconceptions to bed finally.
    Show the punters how Abbott/Hockey Turnbull/Morrison Morrison/Friedberger have bullshitted their way into office?
    Nah, I reckon they won’t.
    Labor’s much too mature for that.

  17. Taylormade @ #1870 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 5:41 pm

    Interesting the multiple call outs for contestants, obviously no one wants to be on the show.

    Apparently the latest iteration of Big Brother attracted over 55,000 people willing to humiliate themselves on national TV for what is rapidly turning out to be a ratings flop.

    This particular “reality” show has been shown on all 3 of the commercial free to airs, and on each occasion the result has been the same – a flop. Why sponsors/advertisers continue to support this worn out old jalopy is beyond me.

    I’m proud to say I have never watched a single episode of this crap no matter which outlet decided to broadcast it.

  18. zoomster @ #381 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 7:54 pm

    Taylormade

    So you’re into cancel culture?

    There’s a new name for if the Right do it: ‘Punitive Populism’.

    https://thebulwark.com/the-rise-of-anti-woke-punitive-populism/

    For example, the way the Right in America are trying to get the nation to turn on the American Baseball League because they took the All Stars game out of Georgia after the Georgia State Legislature introduced Voter Suppression legislation.

  19. Taylormade

    So you’re into cancel culture?

    Yeah, I was about to say I am sure that our conservative friends will have a good explanation as to how this isn’t an example of that ‘cancel culture’ that’s allegedly destroying civilisation as we speak.

  20. mundo @ #382 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 7:54 pm

    I wonder if Labor will use the coalition’s embrace of debt and deficit to it’s own political advantage?
    Put some old misconceptions to bed finally.
    Show the punters how Abbott/Hockey Turnbull/Morrison Morrison/Friedberger have bullshitted their way into office?
    Nah, I reckon they won’t.
    Labor’s much too mature for that.

    See that rut over there? You made it.

  21. There’s a new name for if the Right do it: ‘Punitive Populism’.

    https://thebulwark.com/the-rise-of-anti-woke-punitive-populism/

    For example, the way the Right in America are trying to get the nation to turn on the American Baseball League because they took the All Stars game out of Georgia after the Georgia State Legislature introduced Voter Suppression legislation.

    I’d appreciate it more if they were just honest with us and say “It’s only ok when we do it because we can do whatever we want” rather than use such ridiculous gymnastics to justify it.

  22. C@tmomma @ #1881 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 6:01 pm

    Danama Papers @ #385 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 8:00 pm

    Ye Gods! So many typos in the above post, but no ability to edit them. :- (

    Welcome to my world! 🙁

    I tried something new just after your response and discovered that by turning off the C+ plugin temporarily, you get the native WP edit facility, or at least that availed by another plugin in the PB arsenal.
    A bit of a PITA, but give it a try, see how you go. 😉

  23. Arthur @ #1865 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 7:30 pm

    I must be very bored.

    If you are bored, try not responding. I won’t be offended.

    They are shitting in their own nest.

    Not necessarily. Let me set up a scenario for you: Country X has both iron ore and a steel making industry. Their own internal consumption uses 50% of their steel-making capacity, and they try and export the rest. Their iron ore itself is not competitive on the world markets, but their steel is because their production costs are particularly low. So they manage to export some steel, but they still have excess capacity. But they have never been able to export to China because of China’s import tariffs on steel. But then China drops their tariff and Country X suddenly finds their steel made with their own iron ore is now competitive with Chinese steel made from Australian iron ore. China wins and Country X wins. Australia loses, because while we can compete on the iron ore, we cannot compete on steel because our production and transport costs are too high.

    Of course, this may not be the particular scenario that China is counting on, but you can guarantee they have gamed all the possible scenarios and believe they will benefit in the end.

  24. “mundosays:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 7:54 pm
    I wonder if Labor will use the coalition’s embrace of debt and deficit to it’s own political advantage?
    Put some old misconceptions to bed finally.
    Show the punters how Abbott/Hockey Turnbull/Morrison Morrison/Friedberger have bullshitted their way into office?
    Nah, I reckon they won’t.
    Labor’s much too mature for that.”

    I do not know whether they are ‘mature enough’ for that but they may not ruthless enough for that

  25. Sceptic @ #400 Thursday, April 29th, 2021 – 8:28 pm

    A great selection of UK front page articles on Boris’s flat woes ( headline writhers delight )

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/apr/29/boris-johnson-flat-row-cash-for-cushions-inquiry-covid-live?page=with:block-608a625b8f084ed0b7569edc#block-608a625b8f084ed0b7569edc

    Yes, he continues to blather saying he paid for it personally. That’s as may be but who gave him the readies to be able to, ‘pay for it personally’?

  26. C@t

    Well, yeah.

    The worst of it is that Gladys really doesn’t have enough independent thought processes to realise when her bureaucrats are being fuckwits (and some in TfNSW are).

    Edit: she suffers the same problem wrt covid.

  27. ‘Mavis says:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 8:06 pm

    [‘Former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd said Australia’s escalating military rhetoric this week was driven by the need to shift the domestic political agenda, “not any substantive change in regional security over recent weeks, while recklessly throwing fuel on the China fire”.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/value-of-australian-wine-exports-to-china-falls-96-per-cent-20210429-p57ngx.html

    Add the ASIO warning and Morrison’s Darwin trip to announce a base expansion to the Dutton/Pezullo flings and the theme does rather seem to be FUD.

    On Rudd’s point: Is Morrison, in this as in any other matter, willing to sacrifice the national interest in the personal political interest of Morrison?

    Is the Pope a catholic?

  28. ‘Zerlo says:
    Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 8:20 pm

    Reporter resigns because she was ordered to falsify reports on migrants:
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/new-york-post-reporter-resigned-says-ordered-false-story-migrant-2021-4?fbclid=IwAR0rGMh2DPnDnDRIteX-rPdwG21DJO4rDh4vpBlKENsQTy19lNG8Tdb8ohs

    The west has serious ethical problems so it can’t bitch or moan about other countries.’

    ———————————-

    Excellent point. It is why I prefer the Apple Daily.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56770567

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