Detailed below are some recent electoral developments, the juiciest of which relate to factional power struggles within Victorian Labor, whose federal preselection process has been taken over by the party’s national executive in the wake of the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking affair. Note also the post below offering a half-time report on the Tasmanian state election campaign.
• Josh Bornstein, employment lawyer and partner at Maurice Blackburn, has pulled out of a challenge against Kim Carr for the safe position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket that is reserved to the Left. This followed a report in The Australian that trawled through a decade’s worth of his voluminous social media activity, turning up criticism of party and union figures including Chris Bowen and Penny Wong. The Age reports Left faction unions were divided between Carr and Bornstein, with one or more further challengers likely to emerge. One such is Ryan Batchelor, executive director of the McKell Institute and son of former state MP Peter Batchelor.
• The Age report also says that Sam Rae, a partner at PwC and former state party secretary, is “being encouraged” to run in the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. An earlier report indicated that a stability pact being negotiated between the main factions would reserve the seat for the Right, potentially setting up a turf war between the Victorian Right forces associated with Richard Marles and Bill Shorten, who are emerging as the main rivals for influence within the faction.
• Andrew Laming’s bid to retain preselection in Bowman has predictably fallen foul of the Liberal National Party’s candidate suitability panel.
• I’ll have a dedicated post up shortly for the May 22 by-election in the New South Wales state seat of Upper Hunter, my guide for which can be found here. Results of a uComms poll for the Australia Institute are encouraging for the Nationals, who hold seat seat on a margin of 2.6%. When added together properly, the poll credits the Nationals with a primary vote of 38.5%, compared with 34.0% at the 2019 election; Labor with 23.8%, compared with 28.6%; One Nation, who did not contest in 2019, with 13.8%; the Greens with 10.1%, more than double their 4.8% vote share in 2019; and bookies favourite Shooters Fishers and Farmers with only 8.2%, compared with 22.0%. The poll was conducted on April 7 and 8 by automated phone polling and SMS from a sample of 686.
• A new site called OzPredict offers cleanly presented poll-based forecasting of the next federal election, with the promise of more features to follow.
Labor has lost the last 3 elections with climate change policies. There are still too many deniers in the seats that really matter to change the govt. Remember the bushfires. Punters looking for every other excuse except climate change.
I’ve worked it out. Theo Andolini is actually Adam Bandt.
Both have pointless posts in irrelevant places that change nobodies opinions.
You know it makes sense!
Ummmm. Someone is trying to reframe it.
Now, who was it that said this….
“You forget. No Murdoch in the regions.”
And then, this….
“Thus the ABC is the media narrative in most marginal seats.”
Theo Andelini @ #1210 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 12:43 pm
The LibLab parliamentary fossil fuel cartel are peddling a great big lie re thermal coal.
THEY KNOW demand will collapse yet they persist their their GREAT BIG LIE.
Nothing posted here changes anyone’s opinion, least of all that of other posters. Does it matter?
“I’ve worked it out. Theo Andolini is actually Adam Bandt.”
Thank you for the complement. Flattered, to be sure, but no, I am not worthy of such high praise. 🙂
Mexicanbeemer @ #1200 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 10:14 am
The recent WA state election should’ve awakened them to the fact that all of their safe seats can suddenly be put into play.
Morrison DESPERATE for a distraction from his BOTCHED vaccine rollout starts up a culture war attacking inner city people.
Scotty is so out of his depth as PM.
I once camped under Muztagata in the Pamirs – near to where this photo was taken. It looked climbable. I decided I had better things to do.
Steve
The bushfires had little impact because the seats impacted were either already held by the ALP or were safe Coalition seats or in the case of Indi held by an independent and the only marginal Liberal seat impacted was Robertson.
SK
It’s the truth. Much as you try to deny it.
The facts of Murdoch leaving the regions is reality.
As Mr Rudd says the Courier Mail is the defunct monopoly in Queensland. As far as papers go. So yes his influence remains even in the regions.
However he has lost the regions to the ABC precisely because the only regional reporters left are ABC ones. Remember we were talking about the narrative and your claim that ABC and Guardian silos don’t count.
Ven says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 11:00 am
“Rational Leftistsays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 10:32 am
the only viable centre-left alternative (the Greens) have their own problems and are pretty disliked too.”
They are not centre-left. The Communists have taken over that party.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
What is your evidence for that?
What do you define as communist anyway, Ven?
Rex Douglas @ #1239 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 1:33 pm
Absolute garbage:
Tell me, Rex Douglas, tell me guytaur, tell me Theo Andelini, tell me Quoll, how are YOU going to get India to stop doing this!?! Rail at ‘Labor partisans’ forever and a day on PB? That should do the trick.
NOT.
Hey guys, why don’t you go to India and persuade this guy to stop doing his job?
I’m sure he can just go get another one. 🙄
Cat
Unlike you I don’t pretend everything is ending today to make a case for Australia to continue to promote new coal mines for export.
That means I don’t point to existing exports to claim we need new coal mines.
Opening Adani cost Labor the 2019 election as being for coal was painted by the LNP as being against Adani. That’s the basic propaganda they used.
Learn the lesson. Being for coal does not win the political narrative for Labor.
Edit: it wasn’t the Greens position. It was Labor accepting the LNP narrative. The Greens were busy telling people yes Labor was for Adani.
Bravery/courage/morale needed to be at least partly considered in the context of World War 1.
The Allies were not complaining about Italian bravery in WW1.
Italian war deaths were at a rate around three times that of Australia in WW1 as a proportion of population.
“I once camped under Muztagata in the Pamirs – near to where this photo was taken. It looked climbable. I decided I had better things to do.”
Yeah think I’d be passing on that one too.
I have summitted the mighty Kosciusko twice if that counts lol.
Snowboarding down is so much more fun than climbing up; that’s what chairlifts are for!
Being for coal does not win the political narrative for Labor.
Scott Morrison didn’t just include his reference to people like you in the Inner City for no reason, guytaur. So, let’s just wait and see who’s right and who’s wrong as this plays out, huh?
Guytaur and Theo Andelini are, individually, far smarter than Bandt on the policy and political fronts. Streets ahead.
Sidoti explains to anyone who cares exactly why he is totally unfit to be in parliament:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/nsw-mp-john-sidoti-appears-before-corruption-inquiry/100080776
10 News First
@10NewsFirst
·
1h
NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed the Auckland Airport worker who has tested positive for COVID-19 was vaccinated.
Interesting that the photo you posted is from an article about an Coal company in INdia diversifying into clean energy generation.
😉
I think federal Labor is trying a bit of a reprise of its climate policy strategy at the 2019 election.
Albo is talking a lot of the good talk about the need to progress to renewable energy and the new jobs it will create. Labor hosting a forum of industry and unions about the need for zero net emissions by 2050 is another good move.
At the same time, Albo is reportedly saying the coal industry will be safe under a Labor government.
It is fair to say that fossil fuels will be with us for some years yet, but, it should only be as a transition energy where renewables are not yet feasible.
Not even the Greens are saying it’s possible to shut down all fossil fuel industries tomorrow, but any serious climate action policy would see them phased out as soon as possible.
I think Labor is hoping its talk of preserving coal jobs will calm voters in coal-dependent seats, while moving towards renewable energy will progressively render coal mines and oil and gas wells redundant. At the same time, here’s hoping that discarded workers from fossil fuel will find jobs in the new industry.
Such a strategy might just work. But I fear that if Labor tries walking both sides of the street like this, it will be seen as not caring about climate action or preserving jobs.
Joe Biden and China, not the Labor Party, are the ones who have to take the lead on Climate Change. Scott Morrison is being forced to follow. It’s not for Labor to get in the way.
C@tmomma @ #1255 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 1:44 pm
Stop doing what? Your own source frames it as “may”. Not “has”, and not “will”. It says:
So there’s a firm commitment on additional renewable capacity, a declining share of coal-fired energy in the mix, and a window left open for some new coal-fired capacity, maybe. But okay, let’s all scream about the open window?
Grasping at straws, imo.
What India’s doing is mostly right. What’s being advocated for Australia in terms of coal policy is mostly wrong.
Scotty doesn’t like to lose, so that rules out honourable draws as well (which should be the norm in politics with only scattered stoushes on important policy matters). He only likes winning, and to be seen as a winner.
So he picks only fights that he reckons he can win. Doesn’t really matter what the subject is. Today’s is “Inner City Latte Sippers”. But always… winning it is the important bit.
He keeps secrets because he enjoys NOT revealing them upon demand… even from a court, in QT, or when required a Senate committee. Especially not journalists. Keeping secrets is another kind of winning: he knows something we don’t.
This would extend to interactions with colleagues. He would not like anyone correcting him in, say, Cabinet. Too humiliating. He will always believe that, whatever the job is, he knows best to to do it. There’s unfortunately just not enough time in the day to give all the jobs his full attention. Hence he tends to regard even senior colleagues as gofers, but they always report to him. Only Scotty knows how all the parts fit together.
He also likes to pick winners, the more they emerge from obscurity, or from the remainders bin, the better, because then they owe him.
He doesn’t really care about very much at all, except perhaps feathering his mates’ nests, because then they’re in his debt.
From the other side he’s at best probably looked upon as a useful idiot. There are some really smart, really well-connected people in positions of power in Australia who normally wouldn’t be seen dead associating with a lumpy, unpopular, suburban, middle-level “sales manager” type like Morrison. They’re only as good as their last idea. Not really suitable for stellar promotion. “Business Development Manager” level at best. The real elites would hate having to pretend to like ScoMo. Especially if he starts to get ideas beyond his station.
I think that the best thing to do in the circumstances is to reduce regulation, as Morrison proposes to do:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/mayfair-banned-from-tourism-project/100080902
Rex
Maybe he’s been taking advice from our resident Yappie expert?
Cat
I never denied what Morrison’s propaganda strategy is. It’s more of the same.
See my Basket Weavers of Balmain comment of Neville Wran fame. It’s nothing new.
The problem is Labor is not remembering the lesson from the pandemic. Don’t buy the LNP narrative. It’s not the Greens in government. It’s not the greens that form Labor’s climate policy.
So the Greens attacking Labor for not going far enough helps Labor just as Progressive’s attacking Biden for not going far enough helped Biden.
Stick to the science and the facts. Just don’t promote coal. Don’t promote gas other than Green Hydrogen.
Just don’t buy the LNP and allies propaganda.
Not even the vic libs are buying what the feds are selling
Bridget Rollason
@bridgerollo
·
1h
Victorian Liberal Shadow Treasurer
@LouiseStaley
agrees with
@JamesMerlinoMP
that the Federal Government’s consent video should not be used in Victorian schools “I think it’s lame, I didn’t understand what they were getting at.”
@abcmelbourne
#springst
C@t, I’m a little disappointed you’ve had what looks like a pro-coal rant because you’re so concerned about people in India doing shit jobs.
Why not post a photo of a child labourer in Latin America digging gold out of a mine while breathing in toxic dust?
The point is no one should have to labour in dangerous, environmentally-destructive jobs and it should be a part of international labour rights campaigning to end that.
Another point is, if India really is committed to expanding coal in the face of the world going renewable, then it should face the same trade penalties Australia will, if it doesn’t wean itself off fossil fuels.
Theo Andelini @ #1265 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 1:25 pm
Mountains that big make noise. It woke me up. Only, it turned out not to be the mountain but columns of military vehicles and then, in the early morning, helicopters heading to the Pakistan (and Afghan) border.
a r @ #1260 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 2:00 pm
A source with direct knowledge said a government panel of various power sector experts and officials will discuss the draft and could make changes before seeking cabinet approval.
I hope they do make changes to the formerly secret draft proposal now that it has seen the light. However, my point was that no one here on PB is going to change things in India or similarly in many countries and continents around the world.
I just get so tired of the repetitive back and forth and back and forth and back and bleeding forth, about Coal, about action to address Climate Change, like we here need to be convinced! My point was, nothing that is said or done here is going to lead to the change we get told about that we need, day after day, until my head hurts, until global consensus is achieved by leaders of recalcitrant nations making the decisions THEY need to.
From The Guardian’s live feed:
Overheard in Forster Mall yesterday, an exasperated customer at the entrance to a shop with a QR code sign-in point…
“It’s unbelievable. WHY are they still worried about COVID?”
There really is a long way to go with this virus.
From Morrison’s Good Society website. Why does the girl have three legs?
https://thegoodsociety.gov.au/slides/7/story_html5.html
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1266 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 2:07 pm
I agree. To which I might add that I’m well aware of the South African, the Brazilian and probably plenty of other country’s child and adult miners toiling in intolerable conditions to make enough money to eat and THAT was my point with the photo of the Indian guy-how can we here in Australia just tell him to stop doing what he does in order to feed himself and his family? Hopefully Biden’s Climate Change Summit will provide the answers we need.
There is such a chorus of disapproval, not to say contempt, for that ‘respect’ video that I think we should ask for our money back. I just wonder what instructions were in the contract.
Cat
You just need to stop promoting coal.
The whole point of the Greens policy is think globally act locally.
Environmental legislation regulating coal mines based on emission reductions is exactly that.
Labor can have environmental policies on emissions targets. In fact it does. Albanese gave a speech today affirming Labor’s position which I pointed out the ABC without hearing the speech directly compared it to Biden’s policy.
My question for the Labor partisans that have reacted badly to that due to some Morrison propaganda is Whats Your Problem with real progress by Labor in a change of the political narrative?
Gosh, that’s a new idea.
Guytaur
The fact that the Greens have stay at around 10% for the past few elections shows the problem with following the Greens approach because they are not as popular as they think they are.
guytaur,
And the point that you seem to have missed is that Labor acting precipitously in Australia will only enable Scott Morrison to run another scare campaign successfully. Labor gets it already, as you have pointed out. They can do no more and should do no more than that.
Did China’s former Premier just subtly criticize President Xi Jinping?
Hong Kong (CNN) Under President Xi Jinping, China’s former leaders have grown accustomed to keeping their heads down.
But in an essay published this week, ostensibly a tribute to his late mother, former Premier Wen Jiabao appeared to issue what many have interpreted as a coded criticism of Xi: calling for fairness, justice, humanity and liberty, all while remembering a period of history the Communist Party would rather forget.
Wen’s words took Chinese social media by the storm. His essay was shared hundreds of thousands of times — before censors stepped in to stop people spreading it (yes, even the country’s second-highest official for a decade could not escape China’s increasingly stringent censorship).
The essay was published in an obscure newspaper in Macao, perhaps indicating no mainland Chinese outlet was willing to publish it. Wen could not be reached for comment about the piece.
A poignant tribute to his mother, who died in December, Wen’s essay touched on how his father, a teacher, was persecuted during the political and social upheaval of China’s decade-long Cultural Revolution. During which time he was placed under house arrest and subject to brutal interrogation, scolding and beating.
After one particularly bad beating, his father’s face was so swollen it blocked his eyesight, Wen wrote.
And at the end of the essay, Wen outlined a vision for an ideal China — one that seemed to imply the country’s current state is not meeting the 78-year-old’s expectations.
“In my mind, China should be a country full of fairness and justice,” Wen wrote. “There should always be respect for the will of the people, humanity and the nature of human beings. There should always be youthfulness, freedom and a striving spirit.”
While to outsiders his criticism may be so subtle as to not merit censorship, for close followers of Chinese politics, an intervention by a party elder like Wen is remarkable, particularly as the government is cracking down on even the slightest deviations from the official narrative in the run-up to the Communist Party’s centenary this July.
Wen’s essay this week is far milder in tone, but the climate has changed dramatically, with both freedom of speech and any aspirations for democracy and freedom taking a major hit under Xi.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/19/china/wen-jiabao-xi-jinping-china-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
citizen @ #1270 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 2:12 pm
Because it’s okay to have 3 legs and one eye???
Beemer
Last time I looked Albanese doing a speech on Labors position was not a Greens Party leader speaking.
Cat
You have learnt nothing from the pandemic. Reality bites. Albanese’s speech is not a Green Party speech. Accept the credit that I am trying to give Labor in changing the narrative to renewables create jobs.
Lizzie
A 12 yr old could come to that conclusion.
Guytaur
You keep saying the ALP should follow the Greens approach.
Beemer
No you say that’s what I am saying. I keep saying Labor should follow Biden’s approach.
You just keep getting confused because there is so much in common with Greens policy.
steve davis
We really need a sarcasm emoticon, don’t we!
And in breaking news.
It appears the milkshake video is GORN already!
Lizzie
Yes we do. Thats why I like The Shovel online newspaper.