Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue tracking downwards as vaccine rollout problems take their toll.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the regular monthly leadership ratings, their principal item of interest in between their quarterly dumps of voting intention numbers. The pollster included a bonus result for Scott Morrison’s leadership ratings in the last fortnightly poll by way of discerning any emergent gender gap in light of recent events. The results chart a steady decline for Scott Morrison, from 62% a month ago to 57% a fortnight ago to 54% now, and a corresponding rise in disapproval from 29% to 35% to 37%. While he remains well in positive territory, a distinct downturn can be observed in the BludgerTrack polling trend. The gender gap that opened a fortnight ago, which you can read about here, has neither narrowed nor widened.

Anthony Albanese records his weakest personal ratings in a while, with approval down two to 39% and disapproval up two to 34%. GhostWhoVotes, who monitors these things, points out that breakdowns by voting intention have him down five on approval among Labor voters to 55% and up six on disapproval to 22% – this is from a sub-sample of 483 and a margin of error of about 4.5%, so make of it what you will. In any case, he has taken a reasonable bite out of Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 52-26 to 47-28.

The remainder of the survey is mostly about COVID-19 and the vaccine rollout, including the regular question on the quality of the federal and state governments’ responses. The federal government’s good rating is down eight points to 62% and its poor rating is up five to 17%, though this isn’t a whole lot different to the situation before the government’s numbers surged in mid-November for whatever reason. The ratings for the five mainland state governments are down as well, by two in the case of New South Wales to 73%, four for Victoria to 58%, three for Queensland to 72%, seven for Western Australia to 84% and ten for South Australia to 75% (with progressively increasing caution required for small sub-sample sizes). As with the federal results though, these numbers don’t look that remarkable when compared with their form over the longer term.

Respondents were also asked how confident they would have been about COVID-19 management “if a Labor government under Anthony Albanese had been in power”, with an uninspiring 44% rating themselves confident and 37% not so. Fifty-two per cent felt the vaccine rollout was proceeding too slowly, with 19% happy with the situation and 20% signing on to the seemingly odd proposition that it was happening too fast. For those in the former category, 42% held the federal government mostly responsible, 7% state governments, 24% international supply chains and 18% “unavoidable delays in the production of vaccines”.

There are a whole bunch of further questions on the vaccine rollout, interstate travel and the end of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker supplements, plus one on paid parental leave, which you can read about in the full release.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,179 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling”

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  1. ‘Steve777 says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 7:25 pm

    “It appears as though really believing that government should be limited, that its powers should be curtailed and it shouldn’t be allowed to do things, has ended up crippling the capacity of the Coalition when it really has to do things.”’

    I don’t know. It has done more out-and-out corruption of any government since Federation.

  2. “C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 1:49 pm
    Though Morrison, in the style that Abbott perfected before the 2013 election, knows full well that any ridiculousness on his part will be spread far and wide in the media. It’s completely cynical but it works. Morrison is cynically and completely dragging Australia down the rabbit hole of politics that leads to the electorate rewarding the politician they ‘feel good’ about the most in the lead-up to the election. As people have observed about the Republican Party in the US, since Trump came on the scene they have thrown their policy platform in the bin and instead turned to clown and culture war politics almost exclusively. Ditto Morrison. They have policies of course but they keep them well hidden from view.”

    You mean LNP “thrown the switch to vaudeville”. 🙂
    IMO, adjacent to vaudeville switch, there is a switch for evil.

  3. You mean LNP “thrown the switch to vaudeville”.
    IMO, adjacent to vaudeville switch, there is a switch for evil.

    Donald Trump had four buttons on his desk: Nukes; Diet Coke; Vaudeville; and Evil.

  4. Quoll said

    That some scrabble around here for hours, day after day, over years and years, for any pathetic speck of hope that their own moribund beliefs will triumph over all in some magical future, would be comedic if it didn’t seem so tragic often. If only they, or anyone, were a thousand times more consequential than they believe themselves to be eh.

    And hereby defines the Greens Mission Statement

  6. Dr Wombat’s beloved Lancet has deserted him. Seems aerosol transmission (as opposed to droplet and fomite transmission) is in the frame as the main infection route for SARS-CoV-2 after all.

    This article (linked by CC above) claims the virus “is transmitted primarily by the airborne route.”

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00869-2/fulltext

    Fancy that!

    It appears that the Nervous Nellies (like myself) who, based on common sense, ran a mile from crowds – especially crowds in identified infectious demographics – and advised others to do so, weren’t so stupid (or racist) after all.

    Yes, outdoors gatherings were a lesser risk, but who knew that at the time? As a general rule, at least until we know what’s what, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

  7. Quoll is right about Albo: he did use weasel words in his comments this week on the Holgate case. He was in it up to his armpits, me-tooing ScoMo when the Holgate pile-on was in session last year.

    The Holgate “scandal” was a sad and sorry incident all ’round, on both sides of politics, and Albo’s pretty tacky contribution to it should not be forgotten, only forgiven.

  10. Risk & the vaccines …

    Based on the figures announced on Wednesday by the UK medicines regulator, if 10 million imaginary people were given the AZ vaccine you might expect to see 40 of these clots – with about 10 clots having fatal consequences.That’s roughly the same risk as being murdered in the next month or – if you get in a car and drive for 250 miles – the risk of you dying in a road accident on that journey.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-56665396

  11. He was in it up to his armpits, me-tooing ScoMo when the Holgate pile-on was in session last year.
    ____________________________________

    Like so many others here, you seem to forget who is the Prime Minister and who has the power.

  13. BB
    Have you read that article? – you could start by looking at the qualifications of the authors.

    The point is that it’s in The Lancet. That was good enough for Wombat to label me as a racist, so it’s good enough for me to correct him on the same point.

    Presumably The Lancet isn’t a tabloid publication. It has a reputation to uphold. If you don’t like the authors, write a letter to the Editor. See if The Lancet publishes it.

  15. Aqualung
    “Would it be cruel to wonder if Twiggy didn’t have a hi-vis shirt that was big enough to fit the clot?”
    Scotty from PR brings his own Hi-Viz, hard hat, baseball cap wardrobe to every function.

  17. Yet again I wonder, why does Quoll bother coming hjere and trying to impress us with her photos and dissertations on this and that if she holds such contempt for us?

  18. Re NE Qld @8:53 PM.

    The petition is being sponsored by the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. This is an astroturfing group that has in the past campaigned against carbon pricing. It’s stated objective is to “to transform Australia into a low-tax, small-government, market-based economy.”

    Yeah right, as if anyone, least of all the rich and powerful, actually believed in “Free Markets”. It has connections to the IPA and other right wing think tanks.

    I certainly have no love of Hunt. He should go but I wouldn’t touch the ATA’s petition with a 90 foot pole. Others will make up their own minds.

  19. Just as a reminder. The Lancet must take responsibility for the most pervasive vaccine conspiracy theories by publishing a severely compromised article by Andrew Wakefield.

  20. steve777
    My bad. They have me now….ah well. Will look forward with interest to the spam mail I will start to get.

    Ps. I didn’t get an opportunity to edit the post.

  21. Yeah right, as if anyone, least of all the rich and powerful, actually believed in “Free Markets”. It has connections to the IPA and other right wing think tanks.

    I love it when one of them says, “… and of course we welcome competition.”

  22. Just as a reminder. The Lancet must take responsibility for the most pervasive vaccine conspiracy theories by publishing a severely compromised article by Andrew Wakefield.

    So, because The Lancet once published a severely compromised article by Andrew Wakefield, that means aerosol transmission is a crock of shit, and we can all go to choir practice without our masks?

    That’s a relief!

  23. More recently Lancet published and then retracted the article by Mehra on CHQ.
    The thing that gets me about the article you quoted is that the conclusion, which is not current orthodox thought, is that aerosol is the dominant method of spread but does not give mathematical analysis to support this – rather there are 10 arguments some of which attempt to disprove a negative.
    I look forward to the correspondence this will produce

  25. This is getting circular you just said this article, as poor as it is, must have value because it is in the Lancet and I was replying that the Lancet has made errors in the past
    Anyway, To quote the article:
    There is consistent, strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spreads by airborne transmission. Although other routes can contribute, we believe that the airborne route is likely to be dominant
    Perhaps, but show me the maths, I would like more than a belief

  26. Promo is at the Collingwood vs West Coast game in Perth – when his visage was shown on screen, a growing crescendo of boo-ing rose as the punters recognised him…

  27. Cud Chewer @ #1095 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 7:09 pm

    Hydrogen is dead in the water as a transport fuel. Hydrides have been around for decades. They’re a known quantity. Expensive, heavy and inefficient. The home storage system is a good technology demonstrator

    Roughly the same could have been said about lithium batteries 10-20 years ago.

  28. sprocket_ I believe his best mate, the pocket calculator Mathias is with him.
    Didn’t he just get a new gig in Europe?
    Wonder if we’re still paying for this leaner?

  30. Sadly, John Howard won the Howard-Peacock wars for the soul of the “Liberal” Party in the early 90s. Would things have been much different now had a Peacock Government come to power some time in the 1990s?

    Or better still, of course, Peacock lost in 1996.

  31. This is getting circular you just said this article, as poor as it is, must have value because it is in the Lancet and I was replying that the Lancet has made errors in the past.

    Anyway, To quote the article:

    There is consistent, strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spreads by airborne transmission. Although other routes can contribute, we believe that the airborne route is likely to be dominant.

    Perhaps, but show me the maths, I would like more than a belief

    Anyone who says that something is an incontrovertible fact is not really following scientific method. “Belief”, backed up by observation, is – formally – about the best you’ve got scientific methodwize.

    In any case, I can’t argue with both you and Dr Wombat. You take opposing views. You should discuss whether The Lancet is a rag or a scientific goldmine with him, not me.

    All I know is that Wombat likened me to a racist because of something written in The Lancet about how the SARS-CoV-2 was thought at the time to spread. Yes, it was an appeal to authority, just as most of the jargonistic gibberish he writes to impress us with his technical jnowledge involves a similar kind of appeal (Handy Suggestion: never write something that compels your lay audience to consult a textbook or a dictionary in order to understand it – it’s unhelpful and insulting, unless your audience just likes big words they don’t know the meaning of).

    But now that The Lancet says the opposite of what it said a year ago, a correction from Wombat is in order (but I’m not holding my breath).

  33. Yet again I wonder, why does Quoll bother coming hjere and trying to impress us with her photos and dissertations on this and that if she holds such contempt for us?

    I think Quoll’s photos are impressive, and if one doesn’t like the accompanying text, one simply need not read it.

  34. Oakeshott Country @ #2708 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 9:28 pm

    This is getting circular you just said this article, as poor as it is, must have value because it is in the Lancet and I was replying that the Lancet has made errors in the past
    Anyway, To quote the article:
    There is consistent, strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spreads by airborne transmission. Although other routes can contribute, we believe that the airborne route is likely to be dominant
    Perhaps, but show me the maths, I would like more than a belief

    OC:
    I concur. This article is a piece of polemic crap from some major players in the the US political/industrial complex. It is part of a concerted campaign to get big bucks for engineering solutions to non-engineerable problems. There is a reason why it was played in The Lancet (and the Washington Post) – and that is not an endorsement.

  35. Anyone who says that something is an incontrovertible fact is not really following scientific method. “Belief”, backed up by observation, is – formally – about the best you’ve got scientific methodwize.

    Huh – WOT?

    D&M may wish to turn your guts into her garters!

  36. Not to interrupt the argument of two grumpy posters, but I would like to mention that the first author of the Lancet article being referred to, Prof Trisha Greenhalgh, is currently a Professor of Primary Care at Oxford. Has been a champion of EBM. Also a champion of the aerosol transmission of COVID-19. But so far as credentials go, not too shabby.

    For what it is worth, while I agree with OC that it has a conclusion that challenges prevailing thought, I happen to agree with it. While not an expert in aerosols, I have dabbled and do know how to size them. It comes down to semantics of aerosols v. droplets. One naturally creates a size distribution. But thresholds are what policy requires…

  37. The last two arguments get me.
    9. Our theory has not been conclusively disproven and therefore must be correct
    10. The opposite theory has not been conclusively proven, therefore our alternate theory is correct

    Bells are ringing in Stockholm already

  38. It comes down to semantics of aerosols v. droplets

    Indeed.

    Also, there is a saying about PhD students: too many words, not enough maths. Or in this case—being highly postdoctoral—no maths. Was it a whisky tasting at the Club?

  39. Was in the local RSL club earlier this evening. It’s decked out in its Anzac finery, a huge Australian flag on the wall of the main bar and red, white and blue bunting strung across the ceiling. It looks quite festive.

  41. Griff
    My reading of the whole BB imbroglio that has been going on for 15 months was that it was always semantics. BB did not understand what RHW was saying despite numerous attempts at explanation

    As for the authors, (without going back for another look) we have a GP professor with a reasonable reputation but who has championed aerosol transmission without much maths. An oceonographer, environmental scientist, public health physician and was it an ID(?) all from different units. Not the people I would look to for the scientific argument about aerosols.

  47. I hope that helps OC. If you need more, please let me know – perhaps there is something specific you are after.

    I thought the train one was pretty cool. Published July 2020. Shame it didn’t convince NSW Health policymakers 😉

  49. So now instead of mere aerosols we have small droplet aerosols, next?

    However, aerosols containing a small [how small] concentration of virus in poorly [how poorly] ventilated spaces, combined with low humidity [how low] and high temperature [how high], might [with what probability] result in an infectious dose over time [how long].

    Six things undefined does not one useful sentence make!

    But:

    Notably, the dose–response relationship of SARS-CoV-2 infection is still unclear, especially with respect to aerosol transmission of the virus

    Maybe gets at it

  50. Why the Liberal Party is scrambling to block the progressive New Liberals

    – https://www.sbs.com.au/news/why-the-liberal-party-is-scrambling-to-block-the-progressive-new-liberals

    The Liberal Party has complained to the AEC about the potential for confusion.

    And PB’s own Heavvie Kevvie Bonham has opined that “the Liberal Party’s objections had merit”, as opposed to “Liberals for Forests” etc.

    The solution is obvious – “New Liberals” should just call themselves: “Liberals for Liberalism”

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