Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue tracking downwards as vaccine rollout problems take their toll.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the regular monthly leadership ratings, their principal item of interest in between their quarterly dumps of voting intention numbers. The pollster included a bonus result for Scott Morrison’s leadership ratings in the last fortnightly poll by way of discerning any emergent gender gap in light of recent events. The results chart a steady decline for Scott Morrison, from 62% a month ago to 57% a fortnight ago to 54% now, and a corresponding rise in disapproval from 29% to 35% to 37%. While he remains well in positive territory, a distinct downturn can be observed in the BludgerTrack polling trend. The gender gap that opened a fortnight ago, which you can read about here, has neither narrowed nor widened.

Anthony Albanese records his weakest personal ratings in a while, with approval down two to 39% and disapproval up two to 34%. GhostWhoVotes, who monitors these things, points out that breakdowns by voting intention have him down five on approval among Labor voters to 55% and up six on disapproval to 22% – this is from a sub-sample of 483 and a margin of error of about 4.5%, so make of it what you will. In any case, he has taken a reasonable bite out of Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 52-26 to 47-28.

The remainder of the survey is mostly about COVID-19 and the vaccine rollout, including the regular question on the quality of the federal and state governments’ responses. The federal government’s good rating is down eight points to 62% and its poor rating is up five to 17%, though this isn’t a whole lot different to the situation before the government’s numbers surged in mid-November for whatever reason. The ratings for the five mainland state governments are down as well, by two in the case of New South Wales to 73%, four for Victoria to 58%, three for Queensland to 72%, seven for Western Australia to 84% and ten for South Australia to 75% (with progressively increasing caution required for small sub-sample sizes). As with the federal results though, these numbers don’t look that remarkable when compared with their form over the longer term.

Respondents were also asked how confident they would have been about COVID-19 management “if a Labor government under Anthony Albanese had been in power”, with an uninspiring 44% rating themselves confident and 37% not so. Fifty-two per cent felt the vaccine rollout was proceeding too slowly, with 19% happy with the situation and 20% signing on to the seemingly odd proposition that it was happening too fast. For those in the former category, 42% held the federal government mostly responsible, 7% state governments, 24% international supply chains and 18% “unavoidable delays in the production of vaccines”.

There are a whole bunch of further questions on the vaccine rollout, interstate travel and the end of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker supplements, plus one on paid parental leave, which you can read about in the full release.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,179 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling”

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  1. Cat

    Once it was apparent the cyclone was heading for Kalbarri it was obvious it would be a disaster.
    There’s been a lot of high end holiday accommodation built there in the last few decades but there’s also a lot of timber and fibro “shacks” dating from the 60s and before.
    First went there on my honeymoon in 74 and it’s a favourite place though some of the recent builds are monuments to bad taste.
    It will be a long recovery.
    I feel for people trying to salvage stuff from wreckage.

  2. Frednk
    So what’s wrong with a population not going up and up and up ? With all the developments in robots and automation more and more can be done with the same number of people. The environment sure as hell could do with a bit of a rest from booming populations.


  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:58 pm

    If Labor weeded out all the right faction dingbats the Greens would essentially dissolve before our eyes.

    Labor are looking of more than 10% of the vote.

    Another observation made. The greens put more effort into unseating Tanya Plibersek a very competent progressive Labor politician than they do any Liberal member of for that matter any labor member from the right faction.

  4. Frednk says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    boerwar says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:52 pm

    ….

    It is why Australia spending a billion dollars a year to keep people away is unmitigated nonsense. The opportunity to deal with declining birth rates using immigration is fast passing.’

    Australia is unsustainable in pretty well all ways. Adding to the population merely serves to speed up the various disasters. Our biodiversity wastelands, the cities, spread their blight. They suck in ever more resources, such as water, and they spew out ever more toxins and wastes. Only Yappies would reckon that that is a good thing.

  5. ‘Frednk says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:58 pm

    If Labor weeded out all the right faction dingbats the Greens would essentially dissolve before our eyes.

    Labor are looking of more than 10% of the vote.

    Another observation made. The greens put more effort into unseating Tanya Plibersek a very competent progressive Labor politician than they do any Liberal member of for that matter any labor member from the right faction.’

    This makes no sense at all to an environmentalist but is entirely reasonable to a Trot.


  6. poroti says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Frednk
    So what’s wrong with a population not going up and up and up ? With all the developments in robots and automation more and more can be done with the same number of people. The environment sure as hell could do with a bit of a rest from booming populations.

    I don’t think it is a problem, humanity is moving to renewable energy, the no windmill party will not be able to stop it, and humanity has a declining population, I am very positive about the future.

    I just think wasting a billion dollars on the fear of other is a complete waste of money.
    And you need cannon fodder to run a war.

  7. Police confirm 8 people dead at FedEx at the Indianapolis airport.
    Source: At least 60 injured, including 20 with gunshot wounds
    Shooter fired on people inside and outside of building
    Shooter dead of self-inflicted gunshot wound

  8. Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    Scotty reciting military names on the 30th anniversary of the day Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody reports were handed down comes from the same place as the way he shoehorns military personnel into what would otherwise be an Acknowledgement of Country and Elders.

    Worships soldiers, despises First Nations people? This is our PM.

  9. It always amazed me, especially in the early years, how Pakistan was able to walk both sides of this street seemingly without repercussions. Perhaps now they will see some .
    .

    Biden’s Afghan Pullout Is a Victory for Pakistan. But at What Cost?

    Pakistan’s military stayed allied to both the Americans and Taliban. But now the country may face intensified extremism at home as a result of a perceived Taliban victory.

    …………….“When history is written,” declared Gen. Hamid Gul, who led the feared spy service known as the I.S.I. during the last stretch of the Cold War in the 1980s, “it will be stated that the I.S.I. defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of America.”

    “Then there will be another sentence,” General Gul added after a brief pause, delivering his punchline to loud applause. “The I.S.I., with the help of America, defeated America.”

  10. I’d really like to put down what I think of our current so called pm but the last time I tried that I got stomped on by our lord and master. I was talking about the rabbot and his so called government last time. Let’s just say I’m not impressed by the current incumbent.

  11. Rex Douglas @ #1012 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:22 pm

    Good messaging from Albanese. He’s playing Morrison on the break.

    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    7m
    We have so much potential – to make the most of our natural resources, and to create secure jobs for generations of Australians.

    The future can be made in Australia. Only a federal Labor Government can make it happen.

    Ummm. Is this a trick question?

  12. I do like the “Fairy bread affair”.
    Nice one Alexis Chaise

    I seem to have mixed luck linking to twitter so maybe someone with the magic touch can provide access.

    Apologies if already covered.

  13. lizzie @ #1066 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 5:13 pm

    Australia Institute
    @TheAusInstitute
    ·
    6m
    “2 in 3 people in the Upper Hunter said: we don’t want to shut the coal mines down but we don’t want to open 23 new ones. We’d just like to stick with the number we’ve got,” said
    @RDNS_TAI via @SkyNewsBreak #auspol

    Our research > https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/polling-upper-hunter-moratorium-on-new-coal-mines-in-the-hunter/

    As I have said, Fitzgibbon had plenty to work with.

  14. In 2019, the world’s Top 5 lithium reserves by country were:
    Chile – 55.5% of the world’s total.
    Australia – 18.1%
    Argentina – 11.0%
    China – 6.5%
    U.S. – 4.1%
    One might think there’s more to battery production than having Lithium in the ground.
    It’s about technological knowhow, research , patents…

  15. There are a few batteries assembled in Australia. Sonnen started doing it in Adelaide.

    There is one battery I remember reading about that is a company owned by Australians, and designed in Australia. It manufactures the batteries OS because, even though we dig up a lot of stuff, it is geared to export. So…. believe it or not, a bit like gas, it is easier to buy the raw materials (dug up in Australia) overseas and then manufacture it there. The supply lines etc are just simpler.

    Plus, as that battery manufacture is currently quite labour intensive, they are happy to utilise the cheaper labour in Thailiand.

  16. boerwar says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:16 pm

    ‘Frednk says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:58 pm

    If Labor weeded out all the right faction dingbats the Greens would essentially dissolve before our eyes.

    Labor are looking of more than 10% of the vote.

    Another observation made. The greens put more effort into unseating Tanya Plibersek a very competent progressive Labor politician than they do any Liberal member of for that matter any labor member from the right faction.’

    This makes no sense at all to an environmentalist but is entirely reasonable to a Trot.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    The Greens target traditional Labor seats such as Sydney and Grayndler in NSW, Wills, McNamara and Cooper in Victoria and Fremantle in WA, because they’re the most likely seats to fall to the Greens, should there be a large enough swing towards them.
    The Greens’ strategy is to win enough lower house seats to hold the balance of power, becoming a stronger third force in Australian politics.
    The strategy has not worked out very well, given that the Greens have only won and held a single federal house seat since 2010. It also remains to be seen whether that seat, Melbourne, is truly now a Greens stronghold or whether it is only held through Adam Bandt’s personal following.
    Things could change, but it seems more likely the Greens’ strength will remain in influencing legislation in the Senate and deciding MPs’ elections through preferences.
    Labor is correct to aim for majority government in its own right.
    But if a Labor government ever does depend on Green MPs’ support, both parties should learn from past mistakes and work for the best progressive agenda possible.

  17. There is only one systematic mistake that Labor can make: allow itself to be identified as linked to the Greens in any way, shape or form.

    Electoral poison for no electoral return.

  18. I wish America, and like them the rest of the world, would stop referring to people who inflict mass casualties with guns as, ‘Shooters’. No, they’re Mass Murderers’.

  19. boerwar @ #1076 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 6:20 pm

    There is only one systematic mistake that Labor can make: allow itself to be identified as linked to the Greens in any way, shape or form.

    Electoral poison for no electoral return.

    Except for those goddam preferences, of course. On which Labor increasingly depend to win any election. But apart from that, pure electoral poison!

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 6:19 pm

    So all the variants been found in UK, but the entire blame is on China 😛

  21. DisplayNamesays:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 1:43 pm
    Quoll, the last four Greens leaders (and at least one state leader), going back over at least two decades, have all criticised China. Just not in some fantasy universe published here regularly by an inventive author of fiction.

    Sure, but who has the time or inclination in life to address every idiocy some tedious bore has to say on the internet. Particularly the purposefully and wilfully ignorant and partisan bores.

    https://xkcd.com/386/

    Personally I don’t think it takes more than a few days or reading back through a few threads to see through the idiocy and fantasy stories of the cabal, unless blindly partisan already. As you suggest it is evidently often counter productive to tediously reiterate fantasies when it comes to people who have a functioning brain and can use the internet.

    That some scrabble around here for hours, day after day, over years and years, for any pathetic speck of hope that their own moribund beliefs will triumph over all in some magical future, would be comedic if it didn’t seem so tragic often. If only they, or anyone, were a thousand times more consequential than they believe themselves to be eh.

    Feels like some are already giving up any hope in the Hunter and have started looking for excuses already, and guess who’s fault it will be?

    I thought the Chaser caught the PB cabal take on it all quite well yesterday, at least with this in regard to the Holgate-gate matter

    “I supported firing Holgate because it is not my job to oppose” says opposition leader
    https://chaser.com.au/national/i-supported-firing-holgate-because-it-is-not-my-job-to-oppose-says-opposition-leader/

    Opposition leader and guy who will do anything to please voters except drafting effective policy, Anthony Albanese has responded today to assertions that he is being hypocritical when slamming the PM over the firing of former AusPost CEO Christine Holgate as Albanese himself called for the immediate firing of Holgate when the story of the watches first came out. According to Albanese he was ‘just trying to be helpful at the time’, claiming that ‘I supported firing Holgate because it is not my job to oppose the PM.”

    “How could any good leader fire Christine Holgate?” asked the man who previously said the PM wasn’t doing enough by firing her. “I agree that she should not have been fired, and I take that position at the same time as the PM and the AusPost board. Someone really should have lead some sort of opposition to the firing at the time, I am sure someone was meant to do that. Why didn’t the Greens stop him? Those Greenies ruin everything.”

    “The Morrison government were disgusting with their public bullying of Holgate,” said the man who publicly shamed her at the time, “you would not see anything like that from a nice guy like me. But I am not trying to say Scotty isn’t a nice guy, I am just saying I am nicer. Just like all things in this country, the Labor party are on the side of being ever so slightly better than the LNP when judged based on what the overall opinion of NewsCorp readers.”

  22. P1
    In the long term Labor would be better off if the Greens preferenced the Liberals.
    It would be the end of the Greens.

  23. quoll

    ‘That some scrabble around here for hours, day after day, over years and years, for any pathetic speck of hope that their own moribund beliefs will triumph over all in some magical future,…’

    At last! A Greens who gets it!

  24. ‘poroti says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Frednk
    So what’s wrong with a population not going up and up and up ? With all the developments in robots and automation more and more can be done with the same number of people. The environment sure as hell could do with a bit of a rest from booming populations.’

    Yep.

  25. ‘Frednk says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    poroti says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Frednk
    So what’s wrong with a population not going up and up and up ? With all the developments in robots and automation more and more can be done with the same number of people. The environment sure as hell could do with a bit of a rest from booming populations.

    I don’t think it is a problem, humanity is moving to renewable energy, the no windmill party will not be able to stop it, and humanity has a declining population, I am very positive about the future. ‘

    Consumption per capita is growing fast. As is the global population.
    It is at least arguable that cheaper energy will enable even more massive human impacts.

  26. Player One says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 6:47 pm

    Frednk @ #1081 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 6:37 pm

    P1
    In the long term Labor would be better off if the Greens preferenced the Liberals.
    It would be the end of the Greens.

    And the end of Labor.

    Well there you are, a plan for the greens.

  27. In looking that up, I came across numerous articles from last year with Collignon saying stupid things. I guess my all time favourite was his article telling us that New Zealand would be stuck on “10 to 20 cases per day”. Only, that’s not what happened.

  28. On another angle for batteries and another Aus startup that seems to have started moving along a bit recently.

    This idea takes what is generally regarded as one of hydrogens main problems, formation of metal hydrides and metal embrittlement and tries to turn it into an opportunity, for a local hydrogen production and storage facility using a kind of metal hydride sponge storage system.

    Just Have a Think covers this in what is likely a very strongly debated issue of potential hydrogen storage.

    There are many issues with hydrogen production, storage and the efficiency of the whole process. Which these people obviously understand. Interesting idea I thought and whilst currently expensive up front, in the long run the capacity and life cycle of materials could beat Lithium based batteries such as Tesla, but not in any transport situation.

    Hydrogen obviously has issues with combustion. Though one issue with Lithium I hadn’t realised before about Li is that Li not only combusts with oxygen, but also with nitrogen and reacts with water and carbon dioxide as well. As a mate in the RFS said they are already being trained in the issues around EVs that will change the way they are to deal with car accidents compared to ICE cars. As the RFS are often first responders in rural areas to vehicle accidents.

    Hydrogen Home Storage. Could this be a game changer?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_bTjcjqN6c

    Personally given the parlous history we have of supporting local tech and ideas, I would not expect much support for this until some other country has taken the idea on board and made billions before it would take off here.

    However the Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre and Aust govt do seem to actually be throwing some support and funds towards this one.
    https://www.amgc.org.au/project/lavo-hydrogen-energy-storage-system/

    I’m sure there will be many possible storage options vying for people’s interests and dollars as time goes on.

  29. The reason that I enjoy The Drum is that I hear from people whom I would never meet through politics or the newspapers. It has expanded my “social circle”, if you like.

  30. Quoll

    Hydrogen is dead in the water as a transport fuel. Hydrides have been around for decades. They’re a known quantity. Expensive, heavy and inefficient. The home storage system is a good technology demonstrator but its far, far too costly to compete with batteries. Especially when you factor in at least double the area of solar panels for the same outcome.

    Hydrogen will have large scale industrial uses for things like steel making and as a feedstock to chemical manufacture. We need to hasten its use in those industries and avoid the hype as a general purpose fuel.

  31. P1

    But isn’t it about time Labor had a plan?

    Mr Morrison’s office has many plans, almost all of the cunning variety. No one needs such plans, or any political plans, Commissar!

  32. EGT

    Its not that fresh is generally a good thing. Rather, Collignon tweeted about theories that outside air is magically endowed with anti-viral properties. The point here is that Collignon still can’t bring himself to believe that the virus is airborne. He quite rightly points out that you’re far less likely to get infected outdoors. What he doesn’t get is that the reason has everything to do with dilution and UV.

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