Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue tracking downwards as vaccine rollout problems take their toll.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the regular monthly leadership ratings, their principal item of interest in between their quarterly dumps of voting intention numbers. The pollster included a bonus result for Scott Morrison’s leadership ratings in the last fortnightly poll by way of discerning any emergent gender gap in light of recent events. The results chart a steady decline for Scott Morrison, from 62% a month ago to 57% a fortnight ago to 54% now, and a corresponding rise in disapproval from 29% to 35% to 37%. While he remains well in positive territory, a distinct downturn can be observed in the BludgerTrack polling trend. The gender gap that opened a fortnight ago, which you can read about here, has neither narrowed nor widened.

Anthony Albanese records his weakest personal ratings in a while, with approval down two to 39% and disapproval up two to 34%. GhostWhoVotes, who monitors these things, points out that breakdowns by voting intention have him down five on approval among Labor voters to 55% and up six on disapproval to 22% – this is from a sub-sample of 483 and a margin of error of about 4.5%, so make of it what you will. In any case, he has taken a reasonable bite out of Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 52-26 to 47-28.

The remainder of the survey is mostly about COVID-19 and the vaccine rollout, including the regular question on the quality of the federal and state governments’ responses. The federal government’s good rating is down eight points to 62% and its poor rating is up five to 17%, though this isn’t a whole lot different to the situation before the government’s numbers surged in mid-November for whatever reason. The ratings for the five mainland state governments are down as well, by two in the case of New South Wales to 73%, four for Victoria to 58%, three for Queensland to 72%, seven for Western Australia to 84% and ten for South Australia to 75% (with progressively increasing caution required for small sub-sample sizes). As with the federal results though, these numbers don’t look that remarkable when compared with their form over the longer term.

Respondents were also asked how confident they would have been about COVID-19 management “if a Labor government under Anthony Albanese had been in power”, with an uninspiring 44% rating themselves confident and 37% not so. Fifty-two per cent felt the vaccine rollout was proceeding too slowly, with 19% happy with the situation and 20% signing on to the seemingly odd proposition that it was happening too fast. For those in the former category, 42% held the federal government mostly responsible, 7% state governments, 24% international supply chains and 18% “unavoidable delays in the production of vaccines”.

There are a whole bunch of further questions on the vaccine rollout, interstate travel and the end of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker supplements, plus one on paid parental leave, which you can read about in the full release.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,179 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and vaccine rollout polling”

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  1. When Labor first asked the questions re the watches what was their aim. Was it to generate outrage at the waste of taxpayer money or to hope that Morrison would go off half cocked and open the door to a wider discussion about AP.
    How much knowledge did Labor have about the report into privatising AP and that Holgate as CEO had fought against it.
    Has Morrisons outrage and bullying of Holgate created problems for him in that he now has what might be a more sympathetic CEO to push the privatisation but the public knowledge that this is his aim will make it politically unwise.
    Anyone who has paid any attention to Morrisons treatment of women would have been quietly confident that the opportunity for Morrison to use Holgate as a means to showing he was tough on the wastage of public funds would be irresistible .

  2. boerwar @ #998 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:02 pm

    Locked but not loaded, they spend election after election making no difference to the environment.

    So you blame people who primarily want to see better environmental policies for not supporting major parties that refuse to offer them better environmental policies?

    Isn’t that like saying if someone walks into a shop looking to buy an OLED tv and all they have are 30-year-old CRT’s lining the shelves then it’s the customer’s fault when the shop finally goes bankrupt due to no one buying their obsolete products?

  3. boerwar @ #1000 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:02 pm

    Probably not a single vote in the anodyne but cheap at the price. The people who change their votes because of the environment are safely tucked away in the Greens. Locked but not loaded, they spend election after election making no difference to the environment.

    Labor is desperately hoping there are no votes in environmental issues.

    Even though it doesn’t matter who wins, because a pro-coal politician is going to get the seat, I hope the Hunter by-election demonstrates otherwise.

  4. Assantdj @ #995 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:04 pm

    When Labor first asked the questions re the watches what was their aim. Was it to generate outrage at the waste of taxpayer money or to hope that Morrison would go off half cocked and open the door to a wider discussion about AP.
    How much knowledge did Labor have about the report into privatising AP and that Holgate as CEO had fought against it.
    Has Morrisons outrage and bullying of Holgate created problems for him in that he now has what might be a more sympathetic CEO to push the privatisation but the public knowledge that this is his aim will make it politically unwise.
    Anyone who has paid any attention to Morrisons treatment of women would have been quietly confident that the opportunity for Morrison to use Holgate as a means to showing he was tough on the wastage of public funds would be irresistible .

    I reckon Labor just wanted to score a few political cheap political points re the Cartiers and didn’t realise Morrison would use it to bully Holgate out so he could privatise AP.

    Remember that Morrison is all transactional.

  5. Shellbell
    My account once got some really cracking and binding advice from a deputy commissioner at the ATO which, he told me, would “solve” my tax situation for ever.
    Thank God I didn’t take it, as it was alleged that someone had given the deputy commissioner a “bonus” (and not a watch) and the binding ruling wasn’t so binding after all.

  6. OC

    The Cranston kids and others’ tax rip off trial must be on soon.

    One of the person charged with trying to extort the fraudsters was at school with me. We were trying to find him for our reunion and there he was on page one of the SMH.

  7. Opposition Leader Jodi McKay was in Singleton with the candidate to launch Labor’s campaign.

    She says Mr Drayton is the “right person” for a by-election which she believes will be focused on mining jobs in the area.

    “We have to protect the jobs that are here,” Ms McKay said.

    “We have to make sure that we respect each and every person that walks into a coal mine.

    “They don’t do it because they want to damage the environment, they do it because they’re paying the mortgage.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-13/labor-candidate-jeff-drayton-says-he-will-defend-miners/100065134

    Lazy effort from McKay.

    Should have demanded an AMWU aligned candidate.

  8. ‘a r says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:09 pm

    boerwar @ #998 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:02 pm

    Locked but not loaded, they spend election after election making no difference to the environment.

    So you blame people who primarily want to see better environmental policies for not supporting major parties that refuse to offer them better environmental policies?’

    Goodness me, why would I ‘blame’ people for wasting their votes with such ethical certitude? There is a saying, which I am sure is subject to Godwin’s Law, about doing the same thing again and again and again and expecting a different result. 30 years of it!

    My advice to the Greens environment voters would be to keep doing it until the Reef is dead and the world is at 2 degrees plus. You know it makes sense!

    Alternatively, the environment voters could (a) switch their vote from election to election, thereby becoming that most valuable of voters – swinging voters or (b) infiltrating a major party with a view to ensuring that the environment gets proper priority.

    But really, why should I blame the Greens’ environment voters for being dudded by the revolutionary zealots for which the Greens act as a Front Organization?

  9. Good messaging from Albanese. He’s playing Morrison on the break.

    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    7m
    We have so much potential – to make the most of our natural resources, and to create secure jobs for generations of Australians.

    The future can be made in Australia. Only a federal Labor Government can make it happen.

  10. shellbell
    Thank you. It has probably changed but I did see something about the WA rate of policing that came out with an Indigenous youth being something like 16 times more policed than a non-Indigenous youth. Many of the adults I worked with (including many who would routinely have passed for inoffensive middle class law cleavers had they been white) had been policed numerous times.

  11. ‘a r says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:21 pm

    boerwar @ #1008 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:18 pm

    Goodness me, why would I ‘blame’ people for wasting their votes with such ethical certitude?

    Also, how does someone “waste their vote” in a preferential/2PP voting system?’

    1. Back the wedge, the populist stunt and silly policies.
    2. Bleed 20% of the primary vote.
    3. Encourage the trots to force Labor to allocate scarce resources to their heartlands.

  12. I see DimTim is still pushing the dud E/W link deal that returns only 45c for every dollar invested into it.

    You just can’t trust the Vic Libs with ANYTHING.

  13. boerwar @ #1012 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:24 pm

    1. Back the wedge, the populist stunt and silly policies.
    2. Bleed 20% of the primary vote.
    3. Encourage the trots to force Labor to allocate scarce resources to their heartlands.

    A Labor/Greens coalition agreement would fix that third one right up (and probably the second, too). 🙂

  14. Malcolm Turnbull
    @TurnbullMalcolm
    · 20m
    Those who argue @auspost parcels business should be privatised overlook the fact that this would mean the letters business & post office network would need to be subsidised out of the budget – a classic case of privatising the profits &leaving the losses to the taxpayer.

    vvv

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    3m
    Yes @TurnbullMalcolm and after a while of Australia Post loss making the Expenditure Review Committee would achieve a budget saving by scrapping the standard letter and all local post offices.

  15. a r @ #1016 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:31 pm

    boerwar @ #1012 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:24 pm

    1. Back the wedge, the populist stunt and silly policies.
    2. Bleed 20% of the primary vote.
    3. Encourage the trots to force Labor to allocate scarce resources to their heartlands.

    A Labor/Greens coalition agreement would fix that third one right up (and probably the second, too). 🙂

    The Labor right will back a Lib govt EVERY TIME before aligning with Greens. Fact ..!

  16. BW

    NT would be interesting.

    I acted for an indigenous boy in a stolen car which was doing doughnuts on a primary school oval during drop off. The vehicle was pursed to a petrol station where the boy attempted to flee and was tasered in the back (very bad) near a petrol bowser (could have been for disaster).

    Bit of everything there.

  17. ‘shellbell says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    BW

    NT would be interesting.

    I acted for an indigenous boy in a stolen car which was doing doughnuts on a primary school oval during drop off. The vehicle was pursed to a petrol station where the boy attempted to flee and was tasered in the back (very bad) near a petrol bowser (could have been for disaster).

    Bit of everything there.’
    —————–

    I really don’t see the basics changing until we have a truth and justice commission, a voice, a treaty and just compensation.

  18. lizzie
    It’s because they have not got enough people carrying guns. Apparently the trick is to have lots of ‘good people with a gun’ as they will stop the ‘bad guys with a gun’. Or so I keep seeing argued by gun nut Mercans

  19. ‘a r says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:31 pm

    boerwar @ #1012 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:24 pm

    1. Back the wedge, the populist stunt and silly policies.
    2. Bleed 20% of the primary vote.
    3. Encourage the trots to force Labor to allocate scarce resources to their heartlands.

    A Labor/Greens coalition agreement would fix that third one right up (and probably the second, too). ‘

    The Trots, correctly, see Labor as the true ideological impediment to the Revolution.

  20. ‘shellbell says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    BW

    NT would be interesting.

    I acted for an indigenous boy in a stolen car which was doing doughnuts on a primary school oval during drop off. The vehicle was pursed to a petrol station where the boy attempted to flee and was tasered in the back (very bad) near a petrol bowser (could have been for disaster).

    Bit of everything there.’

    I believe the worst job in Australia would be that of a police person in many parts of the NT.

  21. Morrison: “Australia is standing with the people of Kalbarri today.”

    And that’s about all they’ll end up getting from Morrison to rebuild their shattered lives.

    Morrison will stand by and stand back from the people of Kalbarri.

  22. I had a second problem with the Greens point out to me yesterday. To survive a party needs new talent. Progressive young talent now have two options the Greens or Labor left, if they chose the Greens they are locked away, never to contribute to the changes that we now desperately need.

  23. Scott Morrison speaking in Kalbarri.

    “We’ve seen too many disasters in this country in recent years,” he says.

    Should someone tell him that there may be a connection with Global Warming?

  24. Had lunch with a former colleague yesterday.
    Used to be an ALP member, worked in labor ministers’ offices etc but for some reason switched to greens.
    We dont really talk politics much but the recent WA election came up. He was working to support a family member who was a Greens upper house candidate and hinted he had become disillusioned with the in-fighting he encountered.
    We have read plenty about the green factions in Victoria and NSW but it seems the WA mob has its problems.
    The only WA Green MP, Fremantle mayor Brad Pettit, is less than universally admired, it would seem.
    But I guess in a party room by himself that won’t matter.

  25. Morrison: “Australia is standing with the people of Kalbarri today.”

    Scotty is very good at standing with people. Not that he does anything to help but just standing there doing nothing he has down pat.

  26. ‘Rossmcg says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:51 pm

    Had lunch with a former colleague yesterday.
    Used to be an ALP member, worked in labor ministers’ offices etc but for some reason switched to greens.
    We dont really talk politics much but the recent WA election came up. He was working to support a family member who was a Greens upper house candidate and hinted he had become disillusioned with the in-fighting he encountered.
    We have read plenty about the green factions in Victoria and NSW but it seems the WA mob has its problems.
    The only WA Green MP, Fremantle mayor Brad Pettit, is less than universally admired, it would seem.
    But I guess in a party room by himself that won’t matter.’

    Thanks. Interesting post.

  27. jon “airships” kudelka
    @jonkudelka
    · 3h
    We should make a law where if a politician puts on a hi vis vest and visits a workplace they have to stay there the whole day and do the shittest available job.

  28. I hope the people of Kalbarri have started an audit group to see how much money they actually get from the empty suit from Canberra.

  29. lizzie
    If the US were a person their friends and family would have staged an intervention ages ago and made them get psychiatric treatment re gun violence.

  30. lizzie @ #1036 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:54 pm

    jon “airships” kudelka
    @jonkudelka
    · 3h
    We should make a law where if a politician puts on a hi vis vest and visits a workplace they have to stay there the whole day and do the shittest available job.

    I’ve actually seen a Hi Vis vest that a Prime Minister or Premier gets to wear. It’s like a suit coat on the inside made with the finest quality material.

    Or, in other words, it’s all a sham display of wearing the working man’s attire.

  31. Rossmcg @ #1032 Friday, April 16th, 2021 – 4:51 pm

    Had lunch with a former colleague yesterday.
    Used to be an ALP member, worked in labor ministers’ offices etc but for some reason switched to greens.
    We dont really talk politics much but the recent WA election came up. He was working to support a family member who was a Greens upper house candidate and hinted he had become disillusioned with the in-fighting he encountered.
    We have read plenty about the green factions in Victoria and NSW but it seems the WA mob has its problems.
    The only WA Green MP, Fremantle mayor Brad Pettit, is less than universally admired, it would seem.
    But I guess in a party room by himself that won’t matter.

    The WA Greens have probably had problems going back to Christabel Chamarette and Jo Valentine. 😀

    Certainly Adele Carles wasn’t the happiest Greens WA camper.

  32. Assantdj says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:04 pm
    When Labor first asked the questions re the watches what was their aim. Was it to generate outrage at the waste of taxpayer money or to hope that Morrison would go off half cocked and open the door to a wider discussion about AP.

    Given Albo’s response at the time. “Untenable”!
    And the feeble attempt to walk it back the other day, I’m going to go with point scoring.
    I doubt Morrison’s tantrum provoked much thought at the time other than to furiously do a me too.

  33. It isnt right to compare disasters, we should be sympathetic to the difficulties people are undergoing regardless. Which is why I am going to compare disasters because there was one a few years ago in South Australia where 7 tornadoes ripped through several areas – winds in excess of 250km/h which far exceeded that of Kalbarri. Yes, more residential buildings were damaged in Kalbarri (70% of them damaged according to reports!). But the main difference between the disasters…. the Coalition decided to make political profit from one and show sympathy for the other.

  34. Federal Opposition leader @AlboMP called Liberal MP Andrew Laming a "creep" and slammed the Prime Minister for supporting him. #auspolhttps://t.co/OIOQEyq966— The New Daily (@TheNewDailyAu) April 16, 2021

    Albanese just saying what everyone is thinking – which shows how relatable Albo is.

    Simple messaging like this highlights the contrast between the styles of Albanese and Morrison.

    Albo is playing him on a break.


  35. boerwar says:
    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:52 pm

    The CPC has apparently been manipulating China’s birth rate figures:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html

    It is not news, I have been banging on about declining population as much as you have about CPC’s desire to take over the world.

    It is why Australia spending a billion dollars a year to keep people away is unmitigated nonsense. The opportunity to deal with declining birth rates using immigration is fast passing.

    As for China:
    1) China runs the risk of declining population before it becomes wealthy enough to afford it.
    2) You can’t run a war without cannon fodder.
    3) As for locking up sections of your populations, how fcking stupid can you get.

  36. The prime minister… told a Perth community forum last night that his “first goal” in reopening borders would be allowing vaccinated Australians to leave and return home without going into hotel quarantine, instead quarantining at home or “under some other less-stringent environment”.
    Never mind that Health Minister Greg Hunt said earlier this week that international travel could remain off limits even once the entire population is vaccinated. Government ministers have been asked about the PM’s suggestion all day, with many enthusiastically talking it up, but the announcement is – like the workplace exercises, like many of the things that come out of Morrison’s mouth these days – quite a stretch.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/16/2021/1618552443/stretching-point

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