Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  1. I reckon Promo at his 7.15pm presser will announce he has ‘secured’ a quazillion doses of the best Covid-19 vaccine in the world, and it will arrive ‘in coming weeks and months’…

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:01 pm
    Twitter thinks the presser will be about the Dirty Half Dozen.


    Snap election ?

  3. Ch10 saying this…

    PM holding a press conference at 715pm, I can confirm it’s on the vaccine rollout. @10NewsFirst @10NewsFirstPER #auspol

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 6:53 pm

    “It’s the only fair outcome for all concerned, alive or dead.”

    Except if he’s innocent which he is at the moment and is unlikely to ever be found guilty.

  5. Zero,

    No Evidence = no prosecution.

    You say the NSW Police are “lazy”.

    Please tell us exactly what exercise of strenuous investigative effort might turn up evidence that even the complainant couldn’t produce, regarding an investigation that even she requested be discontinued, all of this after 33 years.

    ● An eye-witness that saw the alleged rape but was afraid to come forward?

    ● Semen stains on underwear?

    ● A telephone tap of a young Christian Porter bragging to a mate?

    ● Souvenir photos?

    You exist on outrage Zerlo. It’s a wonder you haven’t blown a gasket by now, there is so much racism, sexual assault and misogyny everywhere you look.

  6. SkyNews may have the scoop..

    ‘Things to note…

    PM, as recently as yesterday, foreshadowed ‘medical advice’ could further disrupt vaccine roll out plans.

    Govt has contacted 50million Novavax (subject to approvals) which could be given to any sub group deemed not to be be suited to AZ

  7. Announcing a press conference when the AFL and NRL is about to start.

    Missed the news program but in time for the Murdoch rags.

    Announcing they have a billion doses coming from somewhere. Sounds like he is getting desperate. Internal polling must be dire.

    CPG would not be impressed – they could have been at the pub or alternatively a room somewhere in Parliament House doing fun things.

  8. sprocket_ @ #1016 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:09 pm

    SkyNews may have the scoop..

    ‘Things to note…

    PM, as recently as yesterday, foreshadowed ‘medical advice’ could further disrupt vaccine roll out plans.

    Govt has contacted 50million Novavax (subject to approvals) which could be given to any sub group deemed not to be be suited to AZ

    Yeah, I bet it’s FoTN stuff about a different vaccine.

  9. Ahh scomo, what a bell end.

    Btw, my wife just got the Pfizer Vaccine today. I’m so jealous. She’s 1b, Im group 5. boooo

  10. Morrison is noting that “we can still go about our lives here in Australia”, in contrast to many other countries.

    “They shoot people in the streets in many other countries.”

  11. Paul Karp
    #breaking The PM has announced AstraZeneca will be accompanied with an advisory (re blood clot risk) for those aged under 50 in Australia. #auspol

  12. Morrison now in full panic mode. He knows that everything that goes wrong with the vaccine rollout is likely to be laid at his door, so he’s desperately trying to show he’s on the front foot to at least blunt the impact.

    The polling must be terrible.

  13. If they had sourced vaccine from various areas, there wouldn’t be any delays in the rollout.

    Another Morrison clusterfuck.

  14. #breaking The PM has announced AstraZeneca will be accompanied with an advisory (re blood clot risk) for those aged under 50 in Australia. #auspol

    Why? Under 50s won’t get access to AZ for months – and the message may have changed again (again) before then.


  15. Morrison is a big liability to the Lib/nats , he promise he would not break promises from the beginning of the vaccine rollout , that the timetable would be fulfilled
    he lied 10 times about Australians being the first to get vaccinated
    he lied 20 times about the 4 million to be vaccinated by the of March this year
    he lied 30 times about majority of Australians would be by October

    he lied 40 times that the rollout was on schedule

    he lied 50 times about the type of vaccine Australians will be getting

  16. There will be a big demand for “I got the AstraZeneca vaccine and survived” parties.

    Or wakes for those who didn’t, as the case may be.

  17. Morrison had one job………. (one that he chose because he thought it’d be deadset easy).

    There has to be an even stronger German word than schadenfreude for moments like these.

  18. davidwhsays:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:29 pm
    Those of us over 50 are expendable?

    Seems to be the case.
    Unfortunately we are not good enough for the Pfizer vaccine while Morrison is and there is the problem in one. A lot of people are getting pissed off.
    At a family BBQ on Sunday and all of us have doubts about the AZ vaccine and asking why not Pfizer…….we’ll wait a bit longer for it if we have to.

  19. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:08 pm

    A dumb post if I ever saw one, sounds like someone is defending the corrupt cops.

    You either are a cop or know someone is a cop.

  20. It’s taken ScoMo and his medical team boosters five minutes of bullshit to actually deliver the advice at this presser.

    It seems to me that unless Biden does ScoMo a solid and sends a bunch of their – non AstraZenica – vaccines our way, the government is completely fucked. But hey, who knows with the low information, low interest dickheads out in voter land. Maybe ScoMo can crush a beer can on his head in the next election campaign and all will be forgiven.

    ‘Brendan’ (liberal shill) Murphy sounds like she’s about to have a breakdown. Must be hard on a $750K salary …

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