My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
It appears “Matt Gaetz is screwed eight ways to Sunday”, whatever that means.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2024541
Ven
I’m seeing Gaetz being convicted and doing jail time. He may also take a couple of his colleagues down with him.
Aaronymous
@AaronKinKin1
·
4m
I just heard Deputy CMO Michael Kidd on BreakfastNews say Australia’s vaccine rollout is ahead of the US relative to population.
Someone get that man a calculator…
(Not Josh Frydenberg’s)
https://tass.com/
Just an image. Interesting. I Expect that BK may not want to feature this too often. 😇
Socrates@8:28om
Rinse and repeat. I do not know about COVID immunity, but Australian population must have been made immune to travel rorts of politicians by now.
Definition of Woke: to be alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
I don’t like the word “Woke” personally as I feel it is redundant and see no reason for its use. Simply saying we should be “alert of injustice and racism” is a lot better than saying we should be “Woke”, the term Woke simply make it more difficult.
I’m constantly amazed at the right wing press and how they hate “progressives”, the fact that they use the word “Woke” as an insult to describe people that disagree with them. My response to someone saying “you are so Woke”, is to say “Yes, I am, aren’t you”.
To say that a person is not “Woke” simply means they are not alert to injustice and racism which in my books means a person is simply ignorant and through that ignorance is essentially a passive racist that doesn’t care about justice.
Victoria @ #52 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:36 am
The funniest story I read (even though it’s not at all amusing for the poor young women taken advantage of), was of the Congressional cleaner who found an empty packet of Trojan condoms in Matt Gaetz’s Congress Office waste basket. :/
C@t
He is such a nasty piece of work.
He was bad enough in the political space, even with his own party. But add in the abuse of young girls, sheesh!
C@tmomma@8:45 am
” Tejam condoms” !
May yet open the Gaetz of prosecution.
Should’ve spent money on getting enough vaccines instead of spending $60 million just on the marketing to promote the completely useless Covid Safe App.
Meanwhile in the Derek Chauvin / George Floyd trial.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/04/05/derek-chauvin-trial/
Goldensmaug@8:41 am
You are being considerate to the person , who ridicules others as “woke” by assuming they are ignorant. Isn’t possible that some of them are racists and don’t care about justice?
Ven @ #59 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:53 am
The Gaetz of hell?
“The potential misuse of travel allowance claims from the office of a federal politician is the subject of an Australian Federal Police investigation, reports Josh Butler.”
If it is a Coalition politician, you can be sure that the AFP won’t be investigating it.
Why does Scott Morrison have to copy the USA in everything Trump?
Trump had Matt Gaetz.
Morrison has Christian Porter and Andrew Laming.
Bill Bowtell AO
@billbowtell
·
32m
According to today’s @smh, NSW vaccination centres work 9-5, Monday. to Friday. It’s no way to make a living, unless you are a variant strain of #COVIDー19 We cannot do this on the cheap, working office hours and with go-slow on supply. Aust presently 97% unvaccinated.
@abc730
https://theconversation.com/half-of-global-methane-emissions-come-from-aquatic-ecosystems-much-of-this-is-human-made-156960?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%206%202021%20-%201908618658&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%206%202021%20-%201908618658+CID_ca84d0d19c8593ec0358de93e0c9d12f&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Half%20of%20global%20methane%20emissions%20come%20from%20aquatic%20ecosystems%20%20much%20of%20this%20is%20human-made
god & Natural Select will ensure that the far rights wishes are fulfilled.
Lauri Armstrong, a Bible-believing nutritionist outside of Dallas, said she did not need the vaccine because God designed the body to heal itself, if given the right nutrients. More than that, she said, “It would be God’s will if I am here or if I am not here.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/us/covid-vaccine-evangelicals.html?
C@tmomma@9:02am
In my earlier posting, I posted “Tejam condoms”. I did not notice autocorrect changed “Trojan” to ” Tejam”. My bad. Without”Trojan” my sentence does not make sense and intended pun is not delivered
Sceptic @ #68 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 9:10 am
Social Darwinism, here she comes.
Don’t know the source of this so can’t acknowledge.
lizzie @ #66 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 9:06 am
You should read Ian Verrender’s column which I referred to earlier:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-06/budget-cash-splash-australian-politics-verrender/100049486
He points out that Morrison and Frydenburg are doing everything they can to save money and make a big flourish about the rude health of the Economy on Budget night. Also so they can pork barrel like crazy in the run-up to the election.
‘lizzie says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:10 am
What’s particularly alarming is the strong methane release from rice cultivation, reservoirs and aquaculture farms.
Globally, rice cultivation releases more methane per year than all coastal wetlands, the continental shelf and open ocean together.
The fluxes in methane emissions per area of coastal aquaculture farms are 7-430 times higher than from coastal habitats such as mangrove forests, salt marshes or seagrasses. And highly disturbed mangroves and salt marsh sites have significantly higher methane fluxes than more natural sites.’
Ho hum. China produces two thirds of the world’s aquaculture production. I assume that this means that China produces two thirds of the world’s aquaculture-related methane but for dog’s sake don’t tell Barney, A-E or Zerlo or they wills start talking about safari suits, colonial relics, and white racism.
The fact that the ONLY colonialism in China for the last three quarters of a century has been Han colonialism must not be mentioned.
BK thanks for your daily round up
‘Ven says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:14 am
C@tmomma@9:02am
In my earlier posting, I posted “Tejam condoms’
Marketing-wise, you might just be on to something here.
@Boerwar:
“ It is good to see that there was a cartoon that includes China in today’s offerings.”
That cartoon by Andrew Dyson is not very good. There are two sets of gears that the Aussie kangaroo are stuck between. One of them is American. The cartoon also doesn’t depict that the kangaroo managed to jump in between those gears by its own choice.
The John Spender effort is much better.
Stop eating rice, yellow peril!
Quinoa anyone?
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:32 am
@Boerwar:
“ It is good to see that there was a cartoon that includes China in today’s offerings.”
That cartoon by Andrew Dyson is not very good. There are two sets of gears that the Aussie kangaroo are stuck between. One of them is American. The cartoon also doesn’t depict that the kangaroo managed to jump in between those gears by its own choice.
The John Spender effort is much better.’
My point was different. For years the West’s catoonists have given the West a flogging but have virtually ignored China. IMO, the cartoonists who have given the West a flogging have been doing a good job. It is what we rightly expect from cartoonists. Except, of course if they work for Xi’s MSM. Give China a flogging in them and you would have start worrying about the price of a bullet.
No-one in the right mind would argue that China is irrelevant to Australia’s national interest or to the future of the West more generally. Yet the cartoonists have been absent. Strange.
My point is that ANY cartoon at all is a significant improvement on no cartoons at all.
I was rather hoping for a cartoon with hundreds of Chinese vessels having fun in the Philippines EEZ, or maybe something along the lines of China generating two thirds of the world’s aquaculture methane emissions, but hey, we can’t have everything.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:35 am
Stop eating rice, yellow peril!
Quinoa anyone?’
Do get a hold of yourself, A-E.
We all know that rice grown in Australia is evil incarnate but that rice is grown overseas is good. We know this because the Yappies have been hammering this home for yonks.
Yappies aside, Dr Physics and Dr Chemistry couldn’t give a rat’s arse where rice is grown, how much rice is grown or whether or not rice is vital to feed the starving masses. All totally irrelevant.
They will deal with the methane emissions as per their laws. Nothing more. Nothing less.
I wonder what the difference between, say, 1.5 degrees and, say, 2.5 degrees will mean by the time Dr Physics and Dr Chemistry have finished crunching the numbers?
boerwar@9:25 am
You are very kind. I am nowhere near the skills of marketing when compared people in government. 🙂
C@tmomma@9:04 am
Before COVID happened and at the about the time of ” I don’t hold the hose ” comments or just before that, Didn’t someone say that Marketing man was mini-Trump?
Sam Maiden’s sober perspective, even after all she’s been through:
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
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12h
Replying to
@leannetonkes
I would have thought, based on the current polling, the Liberal Party primary is holding up quite well? I would lean towards the Libs still winning the next election right now, but it’s too early to make guesses now
lizzie @ #66 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 9:06 am
Simply untrue. Erina Respiratory Clinic, where I had my first dose yesterday (Easter Monday public holiday), is providing appointments 7 days a week. They were open 8 am to 5 pm on Easter Sunday and Monday, to my direct knowledge. Four nurses doing 6 per hour, each.
Nowhere near enough, of course. There is however, right now, an appointment available for 11.40am next Saturday.
https://www.hotdoc.com.au/medical-centres/erina-NSW-2250/erina-respiratory-clinic/doctors
Ven @ #81 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 9:51 am
Still is. His CoS, Kunkel, is an American.
borewar@9:44am
1.5℃ means we may still be able to keep Coastal towns/ cities of Australia. At 2.5℃ , future generations may not know that towns like Coffs Habour and suburbs like Coogee, Northern beaches suburbs and Vaucluse of Sydney have existed.
To prove how Trump covered every evil base, here’s one of his appointments basically being evil:
Congress is signaling that they are ready to act if Trump holdover Social Security Commissioner Andrew Saul continues to delay stimulus checks.
https://www.politicususa.com/2021/04/03/congress-social-security-stimulus.html
The story of who owns the Erina Respiratory Clinic and its relationship to the building next door is interesting but I suspect telling it is actionable.
Good to see they were celebrating the Lord’s resurrection by doing good works.
This is going to be ProMo’s big announcement of the day…to distract from the shambolic vaccine rollout:
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is expected to announce a date for the start of a travel bubble with Australia today.
Apparently the feds will be making an announcement shortly regarding recommencement of international travel.
C@t
Snap
Archealogists in 100-150 years could be talking about a lot of coastal towns/ cities of Australia like they are talking about lost land to sea in below article
https://theconversation-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/theconversation.com/amp/ancient-undersea-middens-offer-clues-about-life-before-rising-seas-engulfed-the-coast-now-we-have-a-better-way-to-study-them-157413?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=16176672461703&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fancient-undersea-middens-offer-clues-about-life-before-rising-seas-engulfed-the-coast-now-we-have-a-better-way-to-study-them-157413
Oakeshott Country @ #87 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 9:58 am
One of the tradesmen who worked on the fast tracked upgrade to the facility, before and over Xmas, is currently helping me with a house extension. He has nothing to do with the EV holy rollers, and got the job by normal quoting, and being prepared to work in the Xmas school hols.
Are you intimating that the ‘not-for-profit’ “Coast & Country” is not what it purports to be?
Lucien Eye ‘boned’….
‘The Berejiklian government has dumped former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull from his role as head of an advisory body on climate change, saying the focus of the position should not be based on personality.
The move, announced on Tuesday morning, follows days of attacks on his appointment from what Mr Turnbull called “the right-wing media ecosystem”. “It’s just thuggery,” he told the Herald.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/thuggery-turnbull-blames-media-beat-up-for-dumping-from-climate-role-20210406-p57gs9.html
sprocket
Actually, for the climate, that’s a good move – Turnbull is the kiss of death when it comes to causes he promotes…
boerwar @ #73 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 7:20 am
Well a large percentage of the World’s population is going to starve if we listen to you.
How does that compare to other forms of farming?
That might be a relevant comparison.
What gets me is that canal properties on Bribie Island are being sold the same day they are listed at prices not seen since before 2007. The highest point on Bribie Island is 4 metres above sea level which doesn’t mean a lot given it’s a large sandbar.
The same probably goes for a lot of coastal properties. People paying millions for properties that even now are uninsurable for sea action and flooding, go figure.
“How does that compare to other forms of farming?”
More to the point, it is part of a cycle. Where does the methane com from? Same for cattle production.
In contrast, digging up fossil fuels is not part of a cycle. Chopping down trees (e.g. for cropping or grazing) and clearing mangroves (for development or aquaculture) is not part of the cycle.
GoldenSmaug @ #96 Tuesday, April 6th, 2021 – 8:36 am
If you can afford millions for a house, then I don’t think not being able to insure it would be much of an issue.
I’ll bet that Turnbull regrets kicking the till to the tune of $1.75 M to secure his election win. The party he loves so much just keeps setting him up and then knocking him down. I’ll bet also that he never saw Matt Keane’s king hit coming.
Good Morning.
As Smaug brought it up.
@senthorun tweets
“Woke agenda.”
“Gender ideology.”
“Cultural Marxism.”
“Political correctness.”
These terms are now used interchangeably to depict people who challenge racism, sexism, transphobia, homophobia, etc. as radical or unhinged. So, if someone associates you with the above, be proud.