Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Prime Minister’s personal ratings take a tumble after a problematic fortnight, but with no significant change on voting intention.

The Australian has come good with a Newspoll just a fortnight after the last, quickening its usual three-weekly schedule. This actually has very slightly better numbers for the Coalition on the primary vote, up one to 40% with Labor down one to 38%, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation down one to 2%, but with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 52-48.

However, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have taken a hit: he’s down seven points on approval to 55% and up six on disapproval to 40%, comfortably his worst numbers since the onset of COVID-19. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 41%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has been cut from 56-30 to 52-32.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1517.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,355 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Dandy

    They can have Byron. Its feral.

    I got into an argument recently on a transport blog. Talking about the traffic jams that lead into that town from mainly tourists. I’ve been in that traffic jam.

    We could extend the local train service out to a carpark by the motorway. But that would be too sensible. So instead we apparently need to widen the road into Byron to four lanes.

    I suggested in reply that what Byron really needs is this..

  2. Asha Leu says:
    Tuesday, March 30, 2021 at 3:20 pm
    The Greens do marketing better.
    I guess that’s why their primary vote is so much higher than Labor’s.
    _____________________
    One however has gained significant market share at the expense of the other in the last 20 years.

    Past – Present – Future.

    It’s not so impressive if you refine that to the last ten years.

    I still vividly recall, at the beginning of the previous decade, Green supporters proudly predicting >20% by 2020 and that we were “only a few” elections away from the Green primary overtaking Labor’s.

    If I’m feeling generous, I’d call it a logarithmic growth.

  4. As if anything would be different from Clive, Gina, Stokes et al., the LNP or probably the ALP partisans if the Greens did or did not have any particular policy. No matter what was said I wager for some, particularly around here.
    So why be bothered to be too concerned or surprised about that reaction?

    Labor might be happy spending much of their time trying to please a small group of often partisan nongs or those with vested interests who are never ever going to vote for them.

    The broad public votes not just the politically obsessed or partisan.

    Sure there are powerful interests, money and forces at play in politics, which are not going to be overcome or pushed aside by kow-towing to them. It may take some time to overcome, such is life sometimes it seems.

    Labor should be cheering the Greens for taking on such a nong as Clive, who himself wouldn’t hesitate to literally blow millions of his wealth on attacking Labor whatever you say or do.

    Given the numbers of over 20 community minded indies lining up for the next election, mostly in Lib/LNP seats I gather, through the Cathy McGowan backed ‘Voices for’ campaign. Given Greens and other indies or MPs such as Katter in the Hat seem like they will mostly survive or thrive at the next election if numbers are as they are supposedly reported. Maybe not Sharkie? The ‘others’ has been a mostly solid 8-10% as well for a long time in Newspoll, even excluding ONP.

    Along with the flailing about of the Smoko government.

    Chances are that neither Lib nor Labor will get a majority of seats in their own right currently, which is a good thing as far as I am concerned. That’s 6 on the cross bench without Kelly, so only 145 seats to split between Lib and Labor if the cross bench all remain. Less if any other parties or indies also get up in other seats as well.

    Seems like it will be a long long time before either Lib/LNP or Labor would get a majority on their own in the senate as well.

    An age of multi-polar government and policy discussion and debate may be upon us in Australia.

    I know that might be a bit shocking to the black and white duopolistic sensibilities of many. Though it seems the way for most mature democratic systems of government. It also seems wise for people to come to terms with the possibility.

    Frankly that so many here take an entirely partisan party political approach to any and every debate or discussion rather than actual policies or issues facing the country and world just reflects how shallow partisan BS appears to be motivating many commenters.

    All despite the supposedly high self-regard many bludgers have of their own apparent intellectual and political insight, nous and capabilities compared to everyone else.

  5. LVT
    Gerard Hayes attempting a coup d’etat in Sussex Street?
    Goats and Monkeys it really is the end of days.
    I actually thought he would be in the running for big (and useless) brother’s seat.

  6. Morrison and his cronies promise that there will be 4 million Australians vaccinated by the end of March 2021

    Has fallen short by over 3.2 million

  8. It is not helpful to make the false claim that increasing federal spending on health care can only happen if taxes on the wealthy are increased first. There is no link between those two things. The increased federal spending on health can go ahead with or without higher taxes on the wealthy.

    Higher taxes on the wealthy make sense because they reduce inequality and they can reduce the political power of the wealthy. But there are other ways of achieving the same thing: shrinking the size of the financial sector (which generates much of the inequality of wealth); removing tax deductions for purchasing investment real estate; requiring zoning and planning and development decisions to be highly democratic; implementing rent controls and strong tenants’ rights; expanding the scale and quality of public housing; banning large donations to political parties; increasing federal funding for political parties.

  9. Steve777:

    The Greens are marketing a niche product while Labor and the Coalition are going for the mass market.

    Exactly.

    And there’s nothing wrong with that, either. The Greens have every right to advocate their own policies, compete for seats they are likely to win, and, yes, to criticize Labor policies they disagree with.

    What increasingly frustrates me, however, is the inability – or, perhaps, deliberate unwillingness – of many within their ranks (certainly not all, by any means) to realise that that the risk/reward is totally different for Labor than for the Greens when it comes to policy and rhetoric. Especially so when their perpetual shock and outrage at a centre-left party having the fall to take centre-left positions is combined with perpetual distortions and opportunism, like we saw happen with the JobSeeker changes the other week.

    The Greens suffer little downside to being perceived as “too” left-wing. But that same perception can seriously harm Labor’s chances in many seats they need to win to form government, forming government being the only way they can actually bring in progressive legislation – which, incidentally, is also the only way the Greens can actually have any real impact on the direction this country goes.

  11. I love it when Green supporters come on here and rant on about ‘partisans’.

    I’ve seen far more critique of the Labor party here by Labor supporters than I have seen of the Greens by Green supporters.

    I don’t mind the Greens criticising Labor – although it would be refreshing if the same level of scorn was occasionally directed at the party actually in government.

    I do find the accusations of blind partisanship, directed at other posters, a bit much, however, from posters who have never in any way ever even a little bit made any criticism of their own party.

  12. OC I think c@t has received orders to cease positive commentary about Jodie.

    What next ? Glasnost in the TWU? Secret admin committee files fluttering down Sussex street?

  16. Total stuff up or what with CV jabs?

    Just 3-4 days ago, check around to GP and other clinics suggest no vaccine available in good old Perth town………at least not until late April – early May.

    Friend in Canberra tells me CV jab available from Commonweath Health Respiratory Clinics….Check with one local outfit with same kind of name here in Perth…………….

    Rang at 9.30 am, jab administered at 2.15 pm………..today

    Who the hell can make any sense of this???

    Worse/better still, clinic said they have “thousands of shots” currently available of the CZ vaccine and they “thought they would be much busier” than they are…….

    Who the hell would know?

    What total shambles………………..

    Second jab booked in for late June……………………………….

  19. It bears reminding the highest Labor primary vote in the last decade was 37.99 under the Gillardine in 2010 —- every election since Labor’s primary vote has been under 35%.

    Not exactly a sign of rude health .

  20. ‘Lars’ just can’t get over that failed preselection..

    Though in respect, the wise pre-selectors could spot a bourgeois aspirationist when they saw one. Perhaps next time, don’t flaunt the pearls..

  21. I suspect the spill is 2 weeks away – although how it is done now is beyond me.
    How are they going to get Gerard Hayes ( who I once had a very loud and public verbal altercation with in Horton St, Port Macquarie) into Macquarie St – a resignation from the LC for family reasons while Wallsend is organised?
    In any case lets remember one of Jodie’s greatest moments on 11/9/01: at 4:50

    https://youtu.be/e_Sd1p2Y8gE

  22. But your disenfranchised zoomster ? It’s a troika who runs the show?

    lol sprockets – whatever makes u happy . The gigs up surely u know it ?

    What’s the mail on Jodie? Tell us here on PB what’s going down ?

  23. It bears reminding the highest Labor primary vote in the last decade was 37.99 under the Gillardine in 2010 —- every election since Labor’s primary vote has been under 35%.

    Not exactly a sign of rude health .

    It’s funny because that election also represents the highest Green vote. Since then, they’ve failed to reach that high.

    It’s almost as if the Right side of politics was more successful in the following three elections.

  26. Lars

    You’re sort of proving the point I made earlier, because I am prepared to criticise my party and I have criticised the way Labor has handled this (which you should know). However, as it turned out, it has had very little effect on my life as a branch member.

    I’m far more critical about some of the other decisions coming out of the review.

    The end result is however, unlike other parties (and indeed, other state Labor organisations, Victoria Labor will be pretty clean.

    The process might have been a bit clunky but the end result should be worth it.

  27. What r u saying RL it’s a pendulum that will swing back ?

    The aberration was 2007 – and Labor killed that magic. It’s actually been 25 years of waiting for the pendulum.

  30. …I once asked a Green friend what aspects of Green policy she disapproved of.

    She said she agreed with every bit of it.

    I wondered what the point was of belonging to a party which was doing everything you wanted it to do.

    I love the policy arguments we have in the Labor party, and the discussions we have at branch meetings around knotty problems.

    It would be very boring if we sat around the table nodding our heads and marvelling at how wonderful every aspect of the party was.

  31. My understanding is that the AWU have been accommodated, and Jodi McKay will lead Labor against the corrupt GladysB regime at the next election.

    As for the HSU, any outfit that can spawn Kathy Jackson, Craig Thomson, Michael Williamson and Gerard Hayes can fuck off from the ALP.

    Careful the screen door doesn’t whack you on the arse on the way out.

  34. Asha Leu

    ” And there’s nothing wrong with that, either. The Greens have every right to advocate their own policies, compete for seats they are likely to win, “

    Of course they do – I have no problem with that.

    and, yes, to criticize Labor policies they disagree with.

    Fair enough, but keep in mind who the real enemy is.

    General comment: Greens can and do say what Labor can’t. To win Government, Labor needs to compete on bread and butter issues, appeal to voters who don’t give a stuff about the climate or gender equity but do care about their power bills. The Greens don’t have to bother with them.

    Ideally, Labor and the Greens should complement each other to increase the size of the non-right vote win-win. It’s not a zero sum game.

  37. Tonights 7.30 special report on superannuation
    Again Paul Keating all the facts & figures at his finger tips … plus ongoing policy rational, contrast that to the minister Jane Hume.. nothing nadda

  40. Can someone tell me what would have been wrong with the following vaccine rollout –

    For all GP clinics they would administer the vaccine for their existing patients as they would for the flu.

    For all those that don’t have a doctor/GP clinic, they could go to a nominated vaccine clinic (setup similar to the COVID-19 testing stations).

    Why wouldn’t that have worked? Am I missing something?

  43. WOW – I can connect to PB via my home wi-fi again.

    A few weeks ago I received a “303” message while attempting to post a comment. After that, none of my devices could connect to PB via my home Internet (but could connect via another person’s Internet). Since then I have been using my phone on the Vodafone network, which has been very tedious.

    Every so often I would try my wi-fi connection but no go. A short while ago I tried again and am now able to use my computer again. Thanks William for whatever you did that fixed my problem.

  44. Notable TV doccos of late:

    ♡ On ABC as I write: EXPOSED: The Ghost Train Fire… absolutely riveting viewing (all three episodes on iView – do yourself a favour).

    ♡ On Netflix, the story of how Bing Russel (B-grade movie and TV actor, father of Kurt Russell) bought a baseball franchise for $500 and turned it into a national ikon: The battered Bastards Of Baseball (hint: you don’t have to be “into baseball” to appreciate this fantastic docco).

  45. Albanese’s pitch should resonate against the backdrop of the highly dysfunctional, scandal-plagued Morrison Government:

    [‘Preparing his party to head to the polls any time within the next 15 months, the Labor leader said he would lead a government that faced up to reality, listened to Australians and had genuine empathy for people’s concerns.

    Nodding to the Morrison government’s string of scandals over sexual assault allegations and treatment of women, Mr Albanese said Labor had heard the women of Australia “loudly and clearly”.

    “While we must do better on child care, on workplace rights, on closing the pay gap, on women’s safety and on representation within our parliaments, we need a seismic cultural shift,” Mr Albanese said on the virtual stage at Revesby Workers’ Club in Sydney’s south-west.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-a-seismic-cultural-shift-albanese-s-pitch-to-be-pm-for-every-australian-20210330-p57fdv.html

  46. BB:

    I’ve seen the first two episodes of the Ghost Train doco so far. Good god, that is confronting viewing. I was legitimately in tears for much of the first episode.

  49. I was barely aware that the ALP national conference is currently taking place, albeit over the Internet.

    This Nine/Fairfax article gives their interpretation of what happened today.

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has made a pitch for Labor to deliver a “sound, considered, honest” government, saying the party is ready to replace the Coalition after eight years in the political wilderness.

    Addressing the faithful at the ALP’s virtual national conference on Tuesday night, Mr Albanese said a government he led would back the aspirations of all Australian families for a better life as the country clawed its way out of a coronavirus-induced economic downturn.

    Preparing his party to head to the polls any time within the next 15 months, the Labor leader said he would lead a government that faced up to reality, listened to Australians and had genuine empathy for people’s concerns.

    Nodding to the Morrison government’s string of scandals over sexual assault allegations and treatment of women, Mr Albanese said Labor had heard the women of Australia “loudly and clearly”.

    “While we must do better on child care, on workplace rights, on closing the pay gap, on women’s safety and on representation within our parliaments, we need a seismic cultural shift,” Mr Albanese said on the virtual stage at Revesby Workers’ Club in Sydney’s south-west.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-a-seismic-cultural-shift-albanese-s-pitch-to-be-pm-for-every-australian-20210330-p57fdv.html

  50. Thanks Citizen — I wouldn’t have picked my recent efforts as having that effect, but I’m glad to learn that they have. I assume the problem won’t re-emerge when I start turning plug-ins back on (which, for Steve777’s information, is why the edit function is temporarily disabled) — get in touch with me if it does.

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