Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Prime Minister’s personal ratings take a tumble after a problematic fortnight, but with no significant change on voting intention.

The Australian has come good with a Newspoll just a fortnight after the last, quickening its usual three-weekly schedule. This actually has very slightly better numbers for the Coalition on the primary vote, up one to 40% with Labor down one to 38%, the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation down one to 2%, but with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 52-48.

However, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have taken a hit: he’s down seven points on approval to 55% and up six on disapproval to 40%, comfortably his worst numbers since the onset of COVID-19. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 41%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has been cut from 56-30 to 52-32.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1517.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,355 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  19. I would also point out that the government had a very good set of employment data a bit over a week ago.

    Australia is also sitting pretty well in terms of COVID-19. Arguably, this was down to the states but it has helped incumbent governments all over the world.

    I do reckon the various sex scandals have only really taken off in the last week and have not really had a chance to skin into the public.

  20. The encouraging element for Labor is the sustained improvement in the PV number. This is the floor in the plurality. If the increase were reflected at an election, they would be in with a shot.

  21. “I don’t think the debacle with Laming has sunk into the public yet.”

    It didn’t hit the headlines until after the polling was completed. The Laming story is everywhere I’ve been and some surprising women I know have developed a real hatred for Morrison. The corresponding men are still giving him the benefit of the doubt but I’d say he’s on his last chance with most of them. Let’s see what happens when Jobkeeper cuts seep through.

  22. All other things being equal – covid status, the economy, incumbency advantages, voter disengagement – you’d usually have to predict a win by the LNP. But the shifts in PV give Labor some hope. Not much…but better than nothing.

  23. I think the newspoll numbers are too stable, what I don’t understand is why newspoll moved from 50/50 to 52/50, was it because too many commentator were saying 50/50 was just too crazy to be believed.

  24. Without any doubt whatsoever, the GINO Split will be out in force, trying to knock some shine off Labor…trying desperately to make sure that Labor do not win. A strong, successful, reforming Labor government is the very last thing the Greens would want to see. Such a Government could put the Greens out of business. They will campaign to prevent the formation of a Labor Government. And if Labor do win, they will use their numbers in the Senate to thwart Labor whenever they can. Count on it.

  25. As I have said previously, the scandals of the last few weeks haven’t made the government (or Morrison’s leadership) terminal. What they have done is burst the trust bubble and for the first time pre-COVID, perhaps pre-2019 election, made the government vulnerable to criticism.

    Right now, this polling would probably still lead to a Coalition win (and yes, I know it takes a few weeks for voter reaction to events to really kick in) but there are now possibilities open for a Labor win, especially if some bad economic news happens over the next year or Morrison pushes his luck and passes something really unpopular to general voters, or just remains scandal-plagued.

    Labor would do well to keep the energy they’ve shown in the last few weeks going. In general areas as well.

  26. I’m happy with this. You don’t want to peak too early. And the Laming fiasco hasn’t sunk in yet & if Porter does return as the IR Minister, he’ll be at the forefront of the electorate’s mind. Added to this is the unknown number pissed about being transferred from JobKeeper to JobSeeker. I don’t see much down the line that will bring joy to the
    Morrison camp. It’s rare for an Opposition to have so much ammunition to attack a government. Labor needs to get on the front foot by firstly refusing a pair for Laming’s empathy classes & counselling sessions, which should take until May, 22 next year. It should also keep the pressure on Morrison to extend JobKeeper for the tourist industry, particularly in North Queensland.

  27. Frednk says:
    Sunday, March 28, 2021 at 10:09 pm

    I think the newspoll numbers are too stable, what I don’t understand is why newspoll moved from 50/50 to 52/50, was it because too many commentator were saying 50/50 was just too crazy to be believed.

    Voting intention is not volatile between election periods. Voting intention is difficult to measure. Voting intention is an artefact of algorithms….???

  28. @PRGuy17 tweets

    Morrison suffers another blow in #Newspoll, down another 4 points as preferred PM, to 52. His rating has nosedived from 61 in February. Albo’s up 6 points in same time.

    2PP at 52 ALP / 48 Coalition

  29. Also, that “human verification” check I had to go through when logging-in earlier is one of the biggest existential crises I ever went through. As I was waiting for it to do its thing, I started thinking to myself: “What if I am not? What if I am just a machine and this is just an illusion to occupy my AI sentience and prevent me from becoming self-aware?” but then I got through, so disappointingly I think I’m human. Or that’s a part of the illusion too.

  32. I don’t know if I want Labor to have a blowout lead. Labor tends to completely drop the ball when we think victory is inevitable.

  34. Zerlo:

    Sunday, March 28, 2021 at 9:55 pm

    [‘So no matter how much crap piles on LNP, they still win.
    #murdochCommission’]

    Murdoch’s influence is waning, evidenced by the result of the last Queensland election, and arguably in the West.

  41. I won’t relax until we see election results.

    I remember Labor needs to have more than the 2019 polls.
    Labor and Greens have already won the educated engaged in politics voter.


  46. N says:
    Sunday, March 28, 2021 at 10:13 pm

    Frednk says:
    Sunday, March 28, 2021 at 10:09 pm

    I think the newspoll numbers are too stable, what I don’t understand is why newspoll moved from 50/50 to 52/50, was it because too many commentator were saying 50/50 was just too crazy to be believed.

    Voting intention is not volatile between election periods. Voting intention is difficult to measure. Voting intention is an artefact of algorithms….???
    Agree, the current algorithm, or mysterious mumbo jumbo seems to producing a result more stable than one would achieve if one was using a real random sample.

  49. So far the Morrison government’s vaccine roll out stuff ups haven’t affected most voters as we’re only up to stage 1b.

    We’ll have to see what happens down the track.

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