Creeping greenery

The latest on federal election timing, preselections and the Greens’ big ambitions.

Sundry recent developments relevant to the next federal election, whenever that may be:

• A report by David Crowe of The Age/Herald relates that a) unidentified Liberals are “saying privately that a poll in the first months of 2022 is most likely”, and that b) the Greens are about to identify nine House of Representatives seats they will be targeting, and believe they would have won the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara at the last election if the newly published draft boundaries had been in place. The latter propose tidying the electorate’s eastern boundary as a straight line down Williams Road and Hotham Street, which would remove Caulfield and its surrounds and add large parts of Prahran and South Yarra. My own estimates are perhaps a little less favourable for them, indicating a 2.0% boost in the Greens vote to 26.3%, still astern of Labor on 30.7% (down 1.1%) and the Liberals on 36.7% (down 0.6%). Josh Burns comfortably won the seat for Labor in 2019 after the Greens were excluded.

• Marion Scrymgour has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Lingiari, which covers the Northern Territory outside of Darwin. Scrymgour served in the Northern Territory parliament from 2001 to 2012 and as Deputy Chief Minister from 2007 to 2009, and has more recently been chief executive of the Northern Land Council. The Northern Territory News reports other candidates for preselection included Matthew Bonson, who served in the territory parliament from 2001 to 2008; Jeanie Govan, a town planner; and Rowan Foley, chief executive of the Aboriginal Carbon Foundation.

• The New South Wales Greens have preselected David Shoebridge, who has held a seat in the state upper house since 2010, as lead Senate candidate for the next election. AAP reports Shoebridge won a ballot of 2263 party members ahead of Amanda Cohn, the deputy mayor of Albury, and Rachael Jacobs, a lecturer in creative arts education at Western Sydney University.

• Shortly after reports indicating former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson would seek preselection for the Nationals’ position on the New South Wales Coalition Senate ticket, The Australian reports Fiona Nash is keep to recover the position, which she lost in 2017 after being disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship under Section 44. Also identified as a potential candidate is former state party director Ross Cadell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,422 comments on “Creeping greenery”

Comments Page 68 of 69
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  1. Brian Mitchell MP
    @BrianMitchellMP
    ·
    3h
    In this clip Morrison says a meeting was offered to Ms Higgins ‘shortly before she departed’ (Feb 5). But Morrison has told parliament his office knew nothing before Feb 12.

    Why was a meeting offered before Feb 5 for an incident he says his office knew nothing of till Feb 12?
    Quote Tweet
    9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    · Mar 26
    As Scott Morrison looks to shift the culture within parliament house, beginning with a meeting with Brittany Higgins, it seems the PM is being undermined by one of his own MPs. @jekearsley #AusPol #9News

  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    In fact Briefly, I tried to effect a reconciliation between bushfire bill and c@t, but alas to no avail.

    In future I’ll refer to you as Young Canute.

  3. I read an article earlier about what Bandt is planning to demand from a “power sharing” arrangement should the Greens chance the balance of power. It’s mostly adorably naive, even as it utterly plays into Liberal campaign messaging.

    The question not asked of Dear Adam is what the Greens will do if the Labor party scoffs at their ludicrous demands. One can only imagine they’ll support a Liberal government. So remember:

    Vote Greens. Get Scomo.

  4. N says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 10:08 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    In fact Briefly, I tried to effect a reconciliation between bushfire bill and c@t, but alas to no avail.

    In future I’ll refer to you as Young Canute.
    _________________________
    True that.

  5. Lars, the problem with a Nomenklatura is that it can be very successful for a long period but will eventually collapse under the weight of incompetence and corruption.
    You have said that the number of useful idiots eventually declines to the level that the party is no longer sustainable but I think the real question is who will be the Czesław Kiszczak of the NSW Right?
    Truth and Reconciliation Committee now!
    I am willing to chair the Central Coast hearings to be held at Iguana Joe’s


  6. Lars Von Trier
    frednk – the point is there used to be a conspiracy of silence in Club Fed between the parties regarding matters of the pants. Thats clearly been breached forever now.

    I agree. We don’t need speculation. It will now unfold.

  7. Laming holds a Diploma in obstetrics and gynaecology. I’m not sure what this entitles him to do but trust that it’s not what my untrained eye thinks it might be.

  8. William Bowe @ #3328 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    Seems my 503 error problems are back. The advice from my web host has been to have “my developer” (LOL) look into it. Is there anyone out there with the appropriate skill set who thinks they can help me work out what’s causing this to happen?

    With service and support like that, a new hosting service may be needed. It’s not like there’s a shortage or anything.

  9. The question is who made the offer of the 5th and was Morrison aware the offer was being made. Also in what form was the offer made.

  10. ‘frednk – the point is there used to be a conspiracy of silence in Club Fed between the parties regarding matters of the pants. Thats clearly been breached forever now.’

    By the Liberals.

  11. I can’t think what an ophthalmologist is doing with a diploma in obstetrics and gynaecology. Surely this is not usual in medicine? Maybe it was an elective.
    I recall nurses doing electives in history, philosophy, Eng. literature, etc, but that was merely to reach 144 points.

  12. Lars Von Trier @ #3284 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 8:15 pm

    Player One says:
    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 6:40 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3234 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 6:31 pm

    So the EU blocked AZ shipments to Australia – according to SoKrates and PL1 that is somehow the governments fault?

    Fortunately CSL (privatised by Labor for 400m now worth billions) has an indigenous manufacturing capacity.
    So, the government were relying on 4 million doses (actually 8 million if you need two doses) of the AZ vaccine being imported from the EU to meet their promise?

    Odd that they didn’t actually order that many then, isn’t it? Or is that the EU’s fault too?
    ________
    I believe it was 10m of the Pfizer and 50m of the AZ.

    Most of which – of the AZ numbers – were supposed to be manufactured here?

    So, the current fuck up is nothing to do with the EU stopping one shipment of the AZ virus?

    So it was just a normal Liberal fuck up?

  13. [‘In a statement late on Saturday evening, Mr Laming said he was stepping aside to “complete both the counselling courses I committed to as well as additional clinical counselling, and [I] ask for privacy while that is completed”.

    “I will have more to say on my future as soon as that process is completed. I would like to thank my local Redlands community for their understanding during this time and assure them my electorate staff remain available to them,” he said.’]

    Labor should not give this man a pairing.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-funny-about-taking-a-picture-of-a-lady-bending-over-liberal-andrew-laming-steps-aside-from-parliamentary-roles-20210327-p57ems.html

  14. The diploma of O&G is a rubbish degree designed for GP obstetricians, now and fortunately a rapidly dying breed. Laming never used it.
    What I don’t understand is that boorish, juvenile, misogynistic behaviour is a given in orthopaedic and cardio thoracic surgeons but not normally seen in ophthalmologists who tend to quietly go about their business and than go home and swim in their pool filled with new $50 notes.

  15. Everyone’s loving using this Alex Ellinghausen photo of Morrison in their media stories:

    😆

    Lynchpin @ #3330 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 9:52 pm

    “I am still in a state of shock that I thought, like Diogenes, I had found the one honest man in the NSW ALP, Mr Luke Foley, only to find that he had stuck his hand into Ashleigh Raper’s underpants without a specific invitation.”

    Good attempted diversion, Toerag.

    He’s still at it. Like anyone cares about ancient Labor history in the present Liberal circumstances the way he is. Sad.

  16. PL1 – I checked the CSL website – they say on feb 12 their manufactured doses will be available in late March.

    So it sounds like its all going according to plan.

  17. I think Laming deserves the same privacy he gave the women he filmed from the bushes, set internet mobs onto, and took upskirt photos of.

  18. Oakeshott Country:

    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 10:36 pm

    [‘The diploma of O&G is a rubbish degree designed for GP obstetricians, now and fortunately a rapidly dying breed. Laming never used it.’]

    Thanks. I thought it was a bit strange. And as far as ophthalmologists are concerned, I’ve found them to
    be calm & collected, certainly not the type Laming appears to be. He seems to drink too much coffee, or maybe take other substances.

  19. The NSW ALP Kizcak? I think a few dollars on Della Bosca could bring home the bacon. Since leaving politics and ditching the mistress he has worked in the charity sector and come to a significant understanding of the problems of NSW ALP
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/pawns-in-a-power-game-former-labor-boss-says-party-members-have-been-abandoned-20191014-p530kq.html
    I think I will have him as counsel assisting when I hold the CC Truth and Reconciliation. He will, of course, have to step aside when Belinda “Winnie” Neal is called.

  20. Lars Von Trier @ #3374 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 10:40 pm

    PL1 – I checked the CSL website – they say on feb 12 their manufactured doses will be available in late March.

    So it sounds like its all going according to plan.

    What plan? This is late march. I see about 1/10th of the target actually vaccinated.

    So, 4 millon vaccinations by March was just ‘aspirational’?

    Sure, it’s nice to have aspirations. It’s much nicer to be able to deliver on them.

    By the way, how are your ‘aspirations’ on climate change coming along? About the same?

  21. William

    I found this for a 503: “Common causes are a server that is down for maintenance or that is overloaded.”

    You probably need to tell all those leeches infesting your site to stop clicking refresh so often ;-).

  22. Oh well, another joins Porter and Reynolds on either mental health leave or general health leave. This government is a shambles. They’ve kept Porter’s & Lamings’ behaviour under wraps but now the chickens are coming home to roost.

  23. How proud the punters of Bowman must be voting for this tosser for 17 years.

    He only just held on in 2007, by 64 votes.

    He’s a smooth talker and presents as a *very confident* representative of the community. Ironically, I reckon it is his strong personal vote that is keeping him in office. I have a sense that that personal support is evaporating.

  24. I have aspirations on climate change PL1?

    News to me.

    I think it’s pretty clear (and the EU made no secret of it)- vaccines meant for Australia have been blocked from export.

    If that’s a fuckup in your book ….

  25. I’m not a psych but I’ve been professionally associated with a number of people with serious mental health issues. I think Laming fits the bill. If one considers the allegations against him, they are quite bizarre. The question: is it self-induced?

  26. Europe is in a bit of a panic right now with a third wave on the way, and they’ve lost control of discipline similarly to the US and UK. I hear there’s a good chance their ICUs will get close to full.

  27. Been out of IT for a while but the error seems to be pointing at the database.
    Optimisation?
    I confess I’m probably not the guru you’re after William but I guess that might get the ball rolling.

  28. Mavis,

    I can’t think what an ophthalmologist is doing with a diploma in obstetrics and gynaecology. Surely this is not usual in medicine? Maybe it was an elective.
    I recall nurses doing electives in history, philosophy, Eng. literature, etc, but that was merely to reach 144 points.

    I think he was a GP for a while. I know my GP aunt went the UK (Newcastle-on-Tyne) to do something similar on the mid-1970s so she could deliver babies at the local hospitals.

  29. OC

    The diploma of O&G is a rubbish degree designed for GP obstetricians, now and fortunately a rapidly dying breed. Laming never used it.
    What I don’t understand is that boorish, juvenile, misogynistic behaviour is a given in orthopaedic and cardio thoracic surgeons but not normally seen in ophthalmologists who tend to quietly go about their business and than go home and swim in their pool filled with new $50 notes.

    Snap – although my aunt was pretty good at delivering babies.

  30. William Bowe @ #3326 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 8:49 pm

    Do you have a similar graph available for yesterday or (even better) a week or so ago (or however long it was before the issue started)?

    Judged purely by how the load increases at times when you’d expect an Australian-based audience to be coming online and visiting the site during the day/evening it looks a lot like the server just isn’t able to keep up with demand. That could be either because 1) demand is up, or 2) recent changes to the site have introduced performance issues (so even “normal” demand is now too much to handle).

    If you’ve got Google analytics (or similar) should be relatively simple to check and see if traffic has increased notably from, say, a month ago. If it has, then it’s probably problem #1. Simplest option there is to provision more capacity (move to a faster server, or add a second server and load-balance between them, or configure autoscaling if you’re on a cloud platform that supports it and have bottomless pockets, etc.).

    Problem #2 is harder to deal with. Assuming you have some form of version-control in place, it should be possible to view everything that’s changed recently (between the last known-good configuration and now). If you’re lucky, some part of the changeset will jump out at you like “yeah, this is why it’s broken”. Or if not, revert back to the known-good configuration, confirm that the performance issue is fixed, and then reapply the changes one at a time until it breaks again. Discard/reimplement the broken change, and then reapply the rest.

    There’s also a possible problem #3. Depending upon how well the database handles long threads (if I recall correctly, it doesn’t?), it could simply be that at ~3400 comments this one is now too long to run gracefully. A new thread could fix it, if so.

    Lars Von Trier @ #3388 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 10:07 pm

    I think it’s pretty clear (and the EU made no secret of it)- vaccines meant for Australia have been blocked from export.

    If that’s a fuckup in your book ….

    The fuckup was entrusting Australia’s vaccination program to external suppliers in the first place.

    But given the way nobody really cared about entrusting the subs program to France, can see why they thought they could get away with it.

  31. Luke Foley is an excellent example, really. Within days of the allegations being levelled, he lost his leadership and his preselection.

    Compare this to Scomo’s intransigent defence of Liberal Party predators.

    Compare this to the Greens not only keeping Jeremy Buckingham in parliament, but renominating him for his seat well over a year after much worse allegations were made.

    There is clearly only one party that takes sexual assualt and violence seriously.

  32. William,
    When did the 503 problem start, and what changes have you been making recently?
    New plugins?
    Changes to settings?

    Are you hitting limits on RAM / Storage etc?

    If you’re able to look at the logs, the 503 should be pretty noisy.

    If you have a look for the first 503 to get an event starting time and just have a look at the matching time on the wordpress logs you will be able to track down the issue.

  33. Mavis

    I’m not a psych but I’ve been professionally associated with a number of people with serious mental health issues. I think Laming fits the bill. If one considers the allegations against him, they are quite bizarre.

    Likewise, and close to the end of my career, you start to see patterns.

    Astronomers have been mightily weird bunch, coming from well-off families and not really needing to work for the money.

    I need to find the story to share here, but there was one US astronomer from a large well-known family who, among other things sold toothpaste, who would stand at the bottom of escalators and use his walking stick to lift up the skirts of women once they were on the escalator.

    I come from the working class branch, radio astronomy, which came out of good honest machining, fitting and turning, and the electrical trades.

  34. Thanks for jumping in, AR. The graph below is from March 18 to the present. As you can see, the problem emerged on March 22; I thought one of the few things I tried late on March 24 had solved it, although the fault rate apparently remained high; and the problem returned this evening.

    It does seem to bear at least some relationship to site traffic, in that the lulls between the various peaks happened overnight. However, the problem has clearly emerged too suddenly for high traffic to explain it, and I’d have thought the same would be true of excessive thread length. I’m afraid I don’t bother with Google Analytics (I always emit a hollow laugh whenever I’m accused of doing anything for “for clicks”).

    It could be to do with some plug-in update, as I’ve been doing a bit of this sort of thing over the past week. Could it possibly have something to do with me not having updated my version of WordPress since forever?

  35. I come from the working class branch, radio astronomy, which came out of good honest machining, fitting and turning, and the electrical trades.

    Coat hangers and sticky tape?

    I do optimisation under uncertainty and game theory. Three generations ago, those traits were put to purchasing orders of newspapers and perishables without recourse, and running a (very profitable) side gig as a SP bookie.

  36. William

    However, the problem has clearly emerged too suddenly for high traffic to explain it, and I’d have thought the same would be true of excessive thread length.

    Issues like this don’t necessarily follow a nice linear/proportionate relationship between cause and effect. It’s more than possible for there to be a threshold of a sort, where just under it everything seems fine and just over it everything falls apart.

  37. Douglas and Milko:

    Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 11:34 pm

    [‘…who would stand at the bottom of escalators and use his walking stick to lift up the shirts of women once they were on the escalator.’]

    If he was old he could’ve had dementia like my maternal grandfather, who used to pinch nurses’ bottoms. He got away with it due to his supposed dementia but my mother thought otherwise. Anyway good to chat but sleep doth beckon.

  38. Thanks South. How would I know if I was “hitting limits on RAM / Storage”? The resource usage page on cPanel gives me CPU usage and Physical Memory Usage (see above), Input/Output Usage, Entry Processes, Processed and Faults. There’s also a bandwidth meter — there was a somewhat unusual surge on Wednesday to around 5MB/min from a more usual daily peak of around 3MB/min, but nothing that looks hugely out of the normal to my untrained eye.

    I’m out of my depth with the other stuff you mention. There’s a facility for viewing the 300 most recent errors, which doesn’t take me back very far, but beyond that I’m told to “access the individual log files”, whatever that means. Nor do I know how to access a WordPress log.

    If any of you are touched by my damsel in distress routine, I’m happy to provide you with logins if you email me at pollbludger-at-bigpond-dot-com so you can look under the bonnet for yourself.

  39. Dandy

    Coat hangers and sticky tape?

    I do optimisation under uncertainty and game theory. Three generations ago, those traits were put to purchasing orders of newspapers and perishables without recourse, and running a (very profitable) side gig as a SP bookie.

    Gaffer tape – the universe is actually held together with gaffer tape.

    Plus decoding the signals from porn channels to work out where the radio interference is coming from. One of my friends was observing with the Effelsberg telescope, in one of my spiritual homelands, the Rhineland.

    To separate the earthly interference from the celestial signal that was the desired object of the observations, it was necessary to make TV images of the porn channel (or so my friend said).

    Anyway, a referee (Killjoy, I. A. M) of the paper reporting the interesting results of the observations showing a distant quasar with the most amazing (apparently) super-luminal jets insisted that the section in the paper explaining how the interference was traced to to a porn channel, and giving the frequency for future observers, was “immaterial to the results, and needed to be removed before the paper was published”.

    About that SP bookmaker: 3 of us in senior high school where maths-mad. We had a pentecostal teacher, who while he was OK with maths, got weird when careers were mentioned.

    One of us went to work for an SP bookmaker on leaving school, at Randwick, but quickly saw the advantage that computers would bring. Bastard was driving a Bentley by the time he was 30.

    My other good friend ended up in computing.

    And me, radio astronomy, in a slow start to a career including 4 children (would not swap it for quids).

    However, I often wonder why the pentecostal maths teacher had no interest in nurturing our interest in maths.

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