Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

First a state election rout in WA, now a soft result for the Coalition federally from Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, Newspoll caps a sobering weekend for the Coalition by giving Labor its best result for the term, recording a 52-48 lead compared with 50-50 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 39% with Labor up two to 39%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation on 3%. Scott Morrison’s leadership ratings are nonetheless largely unscathed, his approval down two to 62% and disapproval up two to 34%. However, but Anthony Albanese’s are considerably improved, with approval up four to 42% and disapproval down four to 41%, and he has narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister from 61-26 to 56-30. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1521.

UPDATE (16/3): The Australian today goes deeper into the Newspoll data in search of gender effects, but doesn’t come up with much — though this may partly be because they have combined the results of the last two polls to get a larger sample size in testing the effect of recent events, and the previous poll three weeks ago would probably have been too early. As compared with the combined polling from October to December, this finds the Coalition down two among women to 39%, with Labor up two to 38%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%; while among men, the Coalition is down two to 42%, Labor is up three to 37%, the Greens are down one to 9% and One Nation are steady on 4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    Morgan 50.5-49.5 to ALP (unchanged) https://t.co/mhNhLIV1Em— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) March 16, 2021

    So, threes’s a number.

    Do you think it’s credible.

    I think the trend is our friend.

    If Newspoll, Essential and Morgan can be taken as three independent measurements, then the Federal ALP is definitely in the game.

    William, Kevin, Possum, Mark the Ballot, any help is appreciated.

  2. And I really must disagree with you, Asha leu, about the Moffatt era. David Tennant, Matt Smith and Peter Capaldi were three of my favourite Doctors, on a par with Tom Baker to my mind, and a lot of that was down to the writing of the episodes they appeared in.

    Strangely, and I think I’m out on a limb here, I really enjoyed the series with the 5th Doctor, Peter Davison. I loved his whimsicality. His son-in-law is David Tennant, btw. The small world of Doctor Who.

  3. I had stopped watching Doctor Who about midway through Whittaker’s first season. Not by choice but because life got in the way and I just lost track of it but I recently did a catch-up binge-watch. I have to say I was neutral on the idea of a female Doctor (the character is an alien demigod who literally changes into a different person to avoid death) and I think Whittaker is fine. My biggest problem with her is there is nothing deeper about her character. It’s just generic quirkiness, as if the Doctor being female was enough of a hook.

    Really the biggest criticism I have is just the tiredness of the show overall. It’s really showing its age and running out of new ways to entertain. There have been some absolutely great episodes, like the one set in the partition of India and Pakistan. But for every one of those, there are dull, soulless generic episodes like the god awful Orphan 55 (a generic “Paradise planet under attack by aliens. Oh wait, we’re in their territory. We’re the real villains.” piece of tripe) and the return of tedious fan service. Oh look, Cybermen are back and they have us by the ‘nads again. Quick better write ourselves into a corner so we can deus ex machina a resolution, rather than earn one. It’s what fans want. Oh The Master is back… oh wait, he’s just going to twirl his moustache and be insanely evil for the sake of it, chewing the scenery. And let’s not mention that over-the-top bit of background lore added to the Doctor’s history at the end of the last season.

    This started happening during Moffatt’s run and I was genuinely hoping that the change in showrunner might bring a fresh approach and maybe pull a bit away from the fan-service and constant lore-building. And the first season was promising, choosing to focus on new threats, rather than trot out the classic monsters but then it just went in the same direction that made me start to get tired during the Moffatt era.

  4. zoomster:

    Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    [‘I find being stalked more than tedious.’]

    Yes, if you think you’re being stalked that’s fair enough.
    If I were in your position, I would not respond to the person who you think is stalking you and put your case to William. It would be an entirely different matter if the person you’re referring to had your personal details, such as your phone, address. I trust this is not the case.

  5. The partition episode was excellent, I thought – probably the highlight of the season. The Rosa Parks episode and that bizarre one set in Norway were very good too. Had the rest of the season been more along those lines, I probably would have liked it a lot more.

    The only issue I had with the Rosa Parks episode is how much it was sort of implied that “And on that day, racism was finally defeated” with the threat even being a time traveller there to stop Parks from sitting at the front of the bus, so Earth’s history could be altered.

    I loved that Norwegian one because it was an interesting story full of mystery, that young blind girl was absolutely great in it and it represents one thing I like about the Chibnell run: stories set on Earth that would normally just be set somewhere in England being set in another country just because. There’s no reason it needed to be in Norway, it just is and that’s fine because there’s places outside of the UK that weird stuff might be happening in, in that show (that aren’t just happening to famous people or landmarks of said location.)

  6. ‘Weeping Angels’ was absolutely brilliant (holes you could drive a truck through, of course) and then the whole concept was done to death.

    I found the short story it was based on on a Dr Who website (generally try and avoid those sorts of things) and had a nice little lesson based around the changes made to the story between the original and the TV show (similar with ‘Round the Twist’).

  7. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 7:31 pm

    On the Iraq War issue

    …being the recipient of a sermon from a faux/neo-Trumpy splitocrat is about as nauseating as PB gets….

  8. Yeah, the Weeping Angels were creepy, then they showed them moving and had one be the Statue of Liberty and they just started feeling silly. I recall in Matt Smith’s final story, he defeated one or a group of them with a mirror. Total deflation of what made them scary in the first place.

  9. I think the trend is our friend.

    That rock solid primary trend for Labor since the last election is the best friend we have had for a long while. They are consistently harvesting primaries from everywhere – Coalition, Greens, and One Nation.

    🙂

  10. JM @ #1218 Tuesday, March 16th, 2021 – 9:40 pm

    I think the trend is our friend.

    That rock solid primary trend for Labor since the last election is the best friend we have had for a long while. They are consistently harvesting primaries from everywhere – Coalition, Greens, and One Nation.

    And praise the lord it seems to have shut Joel Fitzgibbon up.

  11. I think the Defo case brought by porter is a sneaky trick for him to bassically be relieved of all of his work, keep a cabinent position and then come to some form of stalemate settlement in ~12 months so he can retire early.
    At least everyone knows the measure of the man. God it’s costly. Not submarine boondoggle costly but still.

  12. Douglas and Milko says:
    Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 9:16 pm
    GG

    Morgan 50.5-49.5 to ALP (unchanged) https://t.co/mhNhLIV1Em— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) March 16, 2021
    So, threes’s a number.

    Do you think it’s credible.
    I think the trend is our friend.

    If Newspoll, Essential and Morgan can be taken as three independent measurements, then the Federal ALP is definitely in the game.

    The interesting feature of Newspoll is the decline in the Lib PV. If this were reflected in an election they would definitely be in trouble. The ON vote has evaporated and not been replaced by any other Lib-clone pref-harvesting device.

    The Liberals have really badly damaged their brand in WA and should expect to lose seats here next time. The AEC’s intentions wrt the redistribution will be published this week and then we can start to make some estimates about the seats in which they will be most vulnerable.

    Of course, its most unlikely that WA by itself can deliver enough seats to Labor for them to form a majority. QLD will be critical, as usual. The Liberals may not be able to increase their tally there but will fight to defend everything they hold, and will probably have campaign support from the Greens, as in the past.

    The Federal Government is incompetent, crooked, arrogant and very short of talent. They will probably make things worse for themselves. They must be at risk of blowing it.

    The WA result is politically momentous. Voters here have very decisively severed their past belief in the Liberals. They have let them go very overwhelmingly…and done so without any hint of remorse. The same kind of thing can happen federally.

    I’m old enough to have lived through the Labor wipe-outs here in 75 and 77, when we lost all our seats but one. Voters certainly are capable of turning on a party…of taking revenge. If I were a WA Lib I would be very worried.

  13. Porter’s duties have been curtailed to such an extent that he’ll be able to spend his working hours devising a cunning plan to exempt religious institutions from discriminatory practices. My view is that if they want special taxation treatment, they should obey the law of the land.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/attorneygeneral-christian-porter-asked-to-give-up-some-duties-by-pm-after-legal-advice/news-story/722993005c6c7ece3875b18457de80db

  14. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 9:57 pm

    Don’t know what a “splitocrat” is but whatever…

    A subscriber to the splitting of political cohesion. They believe in schism.

  15. Favourite Doctor Who quotes?

    “My dear, I don’t think he’s as stupid as he seems.”
    “My dear, nobody could be as stupid as he seems.”

    “You have the mouth of a prattling jackanapes. But your eyes, they tell a different story.”

    “There are some corners of the universe that have bred the most terrible things. Things that act against everything we believe in. They must be fought!”

    “Do you know what these are? The wrong hands!”

    “You will do as the Doctor instructs or I will cut out your heart!” Oh, Leela.

  16. The only issue I had with the Rosa Parks episode is how much it was sort of implied that “And on that day, racism was finally defeated” with the threat even being a time traveller there to stop Parks from sitting at the front of the bus, so Earth’s history could be altered.

    That’s fair. Still, it was a far more nuanced take on the issue than I had expected given Chibnall usually approaches social issues with all the subtlety of a freight train. The hazy motivation of Future Ben Shapiro and his general lameness as the bad guy was definitely one of the weaker parts of the episode. Though I suppose it could be a clever commentary on the alt-right’s simplistic and warped perception of history.

  17. Oh well, at least I’ll never feel guilty for banging on about cricket on here again.

    Never fear. From this weekend, it will be “Football. Football. Football.” for the next half-year.

  18. In case you’re still in any doubt over what a low grub Porter is, read this, from Crikey:

    Porter has always enjoyed having his cake and eating it too. Why would he stop now?
    The attorney general has always used his power to pursue the interests of the Liberal Party. His ABC writ is no different.
    BERNARD KEANE MAR 16, 2021
    Christian Porter class action lawsuits
    ATTORNEY-GENERAL CHRISTIAN PORTER (IMAGE: AAP/LUKAS COCH)
    For Christian Porter, life has always been about privilege, about being at home inside public institutions while enjoying their benefits, about having your cake and eating it.
    The party boy law student with eyes on high political office. The twice-married man who confessed, if not to carrying on affairs with staffers, then being a poor husband. Now, the attorney-general who wants to use his own courts to sue the ABC.
    At least to his credit, Porter doesn’t hide his cynicism. Representing him in his action against the ABC will be Bret Walker SC, one of Australia’s most eminent barristers and the former Independent National Security Legislation Monitor — though just three months ago Porter refused to let Walker join Bernard Collaery’s defence team, claiming Walker didn’t have the right security credentials, as part of a long-running effort by Porter to drag out that trial as long as possible.
    Collaery shouldn’t have Walker, but Porter will.
    Porter’s vexatious, personally approved prosecution of Witness K and Collaery is intended to publicly punish the two veteran patriots who revealed the Howard government’s criminal conduct against Timor-Leste.
    His attempt to keep those prosecutions secret, however, is designed to prevent any information about those crimes from being revealed — so much so that Porter even insisted that material subpoenaed from Woodside, the energy corporation that benefitted from the conduct, be handed to him for review first on the grounds that it could include national security material.
    The other goal of Porter — required by regulation to ensure the Commonwealth is a “model litigant” — is to wear Collaery, 76, down and wreck his legal practice by endlessly delaying his trial — so much so that three separate judges have criticised Porter’s own barrister in the case, Tim Begbie, for the Commonwealth’s delays.
    Be the nation’s first law officer, preach the rule of law, portray yourself as a martyr for it, but use that office to punish those you perceive as your party’s enemies.
    It was impossible to watch Porter stand up at his media conference and tearfully complain about being wrongfully accused and not be aware of the hypocrisy of a privileged man-child using the legal institutions of the Commonwealth as part of a partisan vendetta against patriotic men who have done more for Australia than he could dream of doing.
    Perhaps Porter will seek to have his own case heard in secret as well?
    But Porter wants to remain attorney-general and in cabinet while this case proceeds. Again, have his cake and eat it. Even the government — an outfit deeply corrupt and plagued with scandals — is dimly aware of just how wrong it is that an attorney-general should remain in his position while the very courts and judges that he oversees hear his own personal grievances against a media outlet.
    It has briefed friendly journalists that right-wing junior minister Amanda Stoker could take on parts of his job, or perhaps acting attorney-general Michaelia Cash, whose commitment to the rule of law was well demonstrated by her refusal to cooperate with an AFP investigation of a crime in her office.
    The idea, however, is absurd on its face. Is Porter going to be half an attorney-general for however many years it takes to resolve this case? Will Australia go to the 2024 federal election with Porter still only doing half his job while lawyers battle it out in the High Court over whether he was defamed?
    And are potential federal court appointees — conscious of the extraordinary way Porter has stacked the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with Liberal mates — and current ones, supposed to simply forget that Porter would revert to being the first law officer at the conclusion of his action?
    But the government sees nothing wrong with such behaviour. And certainly not Porter, a child of privilege who has spent much of his life enjoying it, often at the expense of the taxpayer.
    Nor should Porter remain in cabinet while the government debates related matters such as the ABC’s funding (wouldn’t further cuts to the ABC’s funding be just the thing to encourage the broadcaster to settle?), media law reform, changes to defamation law, or any issues relating to the status of women.
    But he will, of course. Porter has spent his time as attorney-general using his position. Why stop now?

  19. At the 2013 election in WA, the Liberal Party attracted 557,903 primary votes out of 1,260,089 formal votes counted (47.1%). At the election just held, they have so far received 228,634 votes of 1,042,035 formal votes so far counted (21.9%).

    They have lost well over half of their supporters in the space of two elections. About 300,000 past-Lib voters have shed their attachment to and trust in the Liberal Party in WA.

    Extraordinary.

  20. The Green PV has fallen from 99,431 (8.39%) in 2013 to 68,827 (6.6%) this week. Their vote in 2013 was also a decline from 129,827 votes (11.92%) in 2008.

    Support for the Greens has declined by almost half in the last 13 years. They are a waning force in Western Australia. Without doubt this reflects the mode in which they choose to campaign federally, and the sense that the Greens have almost nothing to say that is relevant to WA.

  21. About 300,000 past-Lib voters have shed their attachment to and trust in the Liberal Party in WA.

    And Morrison knows it.

    “Sometimes the path is wide and the walking is gentle, but the path is now narrow so we must watch out for each other and we must support each other.”
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/narrow-path-ahead-morrison-warns-mps-on-tough-challenges-20210316-p57b6o.html

    And if that patronising message was the best he could offer me I’d be looking around for a leader. While I doubt there’ll be a mutiny, platitudes like this will unsettle his troops.

  22. “China issues its own powerful digital currency – 6 times stronger than any other”

    LOL

    Congratulations on being “first”.

  23. Federally, the Liberals attracted 613,915 votes out of 1,401,874 formal votes cast in WA.

    If the State results were repeated at the next Federal election, and the Liberals were to lose 300,000 primary votes, they would risk losing every seat they hold other than O’Connor and possibly Curtin.

  24. Federally, the Liberals attracted 613,915 votes out of 1,401,874 formal votes cast in WA.

    Federally the LNP will probably get back in, because “balance.”

  25. Jaeger says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:20 am

    Federally, the Liberals attracted 613,915 votes out of 1,401,874 formal votes cast in WA.

    Federally the LNP will probably get back in, because “balance.”

    Maybe. The voters were not interested in that in the State election. They’ve never voted Labor for the sake of “balance”. I think several hundred thousand past-Lib voters have formed the view that the Liberal Party is not committed to their well-being; that the Liberal Party has taken them for granted for a very long time; and they’ve collectively decided to cancel their subscriptions to the Liberals.

    The vote was not only an expression of support for Labor/MacGowan. It was a profound rejection of the Liberals. Voters who have never before chosen Labor did so in enormous numbers. Just 1/5 voters rate the Liberals ahead of all others in WA. They very richly deserve that. Ask any voter.

  26. There are lengthy articles concerning the “Astrazeneca” vaccine in “The Australian” and “The New York Times” plus various other sources.

    Possible”Clots” forming subsequent to vaccination with the “Astrazeneca” vaccine has resulted in suspension of the rollout in various countries.

    What is required in Orstraya is a declaration from a member of the Federal Gummint telling us how safe this vaccine is and how we should be pleased to go along with it.

    That Federal Gummint member would have to be

    However – small problem – who would this mythical character be ❓

  27. Russia sought to influence the 2020 election, a US government report out today says, by planting “misleading or unsubstantiated allegations” against Joe Biden.

    The report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence carries strong echoes, of course, of extensive and long-running investigations of the 2016 election, which the US intelligence community agrees saw Moscow attempt to tip the scales in favour of Donald Trump and against Hillary Clinton.

    Trump beat Clinton 306-232 in the electoral college (if you don’t take faithless electors into account), despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3m ballots. Biden beat Trump by the same score, despite winning the popular vote by more than 7m.

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